Now several things happened at once, one of which was that the USA redirected oil tankers bound for Europe in a situation of scarcity.
Since Trump had already threatened to cut off LNG if we didn’t sign the trade agreement with the USA, and Zelensky has now come out and announced that everyone is trying to get him to stop bombing Russian oil infrastructure, it is essentially confirmed that the USA is blackmailing us with oil as a weapon.
The USA and Ukraine are on a collision course, and Zelensky is taking a tough stance – probably the USA is more furious with Ukraine than they dare to show.
UA has just droned some “petrochemical” plant that basically blew up and caused mass casualties. The USA will soon start screaming about Ukrainian war crimes.
Ukraine is escalating now – they will come up with something on May 9th, one day there will be flamingos in Frunzenskaya and the Kremlin will be on fire.
On the battlefield, Ukraine is soon gaining the initiative and RU will retreat.
Russia has everything to lose and the citizens are completely furious because their wifi is down. Castration and torture-murdered five-year-olds are not a big problem for them to accept, but when there are internet disruptions, it’s revolution immediately.
The prevailing opinion is that Russia is up to something and the shutdown of the internet is related to it. You have also heard how the USA has now twice said, “You have only yourselves to blame when you are at war with Russia,” in a short period.
6:51 PM · Mar 30, 2026 · 1.04M Views
1.94K Replies · 10.8K Reposts · 49.1K Likes
I’m starting to run out of explanations for the USA’s actions, which I have long described as “the USA is just like the bank, not our friend” and “the USA does what’s best for them.”
Seeing a more and more aggressive USA beginning to counter Ukraine, and trying to force Europe to help the USA in their pursuit of a better world, the better Ukraine does is clear but not really new. Regarding the Ukraine war, that’s how I’ve perceived the situation since 2022 and I yelled so much about it on the other blog that my “Biden hatred” was not appreciated.
So for me, the USA is following the same line and being consistent, but the new thing is that Ukraine doesn’t care and is telling the whole world what the USA and Trump are up to.
And that’s really what the USA and Trump are mad about, that they can’t deal in human blood anymore for quick profits without anyone daring to say anything.
I am one of those who believe that Russia is escalating towards Europe and I believe that Ukraine will come out on top in 2026 even if Russia doesn’t understand this yet.
In Belarus, Lukashenko has just addressed the military to prepare for war.
(ignore the link that I cannot vouch for, but they have reported the speech okay)
Russia is about to start its own offensive, which they believe will go as it has since the fall of 2023 – slowly forward.
The command structure and the political leadership are too far away to have seen the early warning signs we see and discuss.
The Russian offensive is increasing and they have the same talking points about Sloviansk/Kramatorsk and other areas – the Russian troop commanders have received their orders, reconnaissance and positioning battles are already underway.
Since the ground’s bearing capacity will soon be acceptable, it is highly likely that it will increase, but we can safely assume that it will be more of a massacre and manhunt than a Russian offensive this year, and that it will last too long as the Russian system is sluggish.
At some point, Ukraine will snatch the baton and roll out an excellent counteroffensive that will turn into a carpet of offensive operations with strategic goals.
The question that needs to be asked is – how far is the USA willing to go?
I no longer consider Crimea unlikely, and that the USA could intervene to “protect the peninsula since neither side has managed to control it since 2014.”
The USA is almost forcing Hungary to choose Orban, they have just lifted sanctions on Belarus and are well on their way to lifting all sanctions on Russia.
The USA is also constantly trying to talk Ukraine into peace, but Zelensky keeps saying no in increasingly provocative terms to the USA.
Europe has already started to falter, we know that because we have asked Ukraine to pause the fighting of RU oil infrastructure – importing all oil makes us too vulnerable, plain and simple.
I know I keep harping on about the Iraqi Shia militias, but you really must understand that convoys of hundreds of vehicles have snaked from Iraq to Tehran where the USA/Israel have been able to track them in real-time but not engage them.
This is extremely important because it has seemed like at least Israel was aiming for a fresh start with Pasha in Iran, but if thousands of militias are allowed in, it doesn’t exactly make it easier for a popular uprising.
So it matters and is an important puzzle piece, just as tricking Iran into starting to knock out oil installations across MENA was important.
Are Russia and China satisfied with the Iran war – not in the least, but a good compromise would be if the IRGC or the mullah regime could continue in one way or another. Could it be that discussions are also ongoing between them and the USA?
We know that Europe is not invited to any discussions because our leaders’ statements are newly awake and furious.
Regarding Ukraine, it is undeniable that the USA is playing both sides with Russia and trying to pressure Europe to give in.
If in Iran they end up just taking a toll for the oil through Hormuz, a % of Iran’s sales, and then let the IRGC keep power, they are not far behind in MENA either.
But it seems that US interests have collided completely with Israel’s security interests, I will come back to that later.
Trump is good because he talks too much when he gets angry, so we get a lot of information that way. Biden was better at keeping quiet, you have to give him that.
I don’t know if I expected this, but now we have to keep an eye on Russia, China, AND the USA when it comes to global escalation, and the only thing they seem to agree on is that Europe should preferably be weak, divided, and scared.
The USA has crossed many red lines, but since we live in the real world with consequences, there is only so much one can do as they line up missile launchers to threaten with.
There are very good reasons to ask how we could become dependent on 100% imports for much of what we now must have – there has been no shortage of warnings, to be honest.
Since 2007, everyone also knew that Russia intended to expand its empire because Putin gave a speech where he clearly stated it.
Now we are where we are, and I maintain that if Ukraine is not allowed to deliver its deadly blows against Russia by 2026, we are heading towards an escalation for Europe as well.
It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the USA absolutely wants a weak and divided Europe with a Russian threat on the side so that we willingly buy security at five times the price from them.
We have speculated about this for a couple of years, but we are now actually at the point where it is starting to look like Yalta 1945 again, where Roosevelt had to throw Churchill under the bus, sacrifice the Poles, and scratch Stalin’s back so that the USA could have its best years ever until 1989. But apparently, it was worth it because the USA has really made an effort to get back to this point. The Pentagon’s pizza index has hit the roof.
If we can lock in this assumption and then assume that Ukraine will continue to push until Russia gets its 1917 again – can we then guess that the USA will become increasingly hostile towards Europe and Ukraine the worse things go for Russia?
I don’t know, but this is something we must consider now, how far is the USA willing to go to protect Russia?
Israel is something too few are discussing right now, but they have not exactly made friends in the MENA region in recent months. Things like this seem okay until they are not anymore, and Israel was already at a disadvantage after their aggressive actions in Gaza. Egypt has built up some capabilities in Sinai, for example.
Israel also has limitations in its Iron Dome capability, and more and more Iranian rockets are hitting high-value targets in the country.
And not least the FPV drone weapon, which has actually caused significant losses to Israeli ground troops on several occasions because the opposing team has had Iran and Russia building up and training this new capability for them.
Now, to a point I made on johanno1.se, I will paste it in its entirety below –
—
The USA has never mentioned regime change, but Israel has been very clear both in words and actions.
In the first weeks, Israel worked hard against a popular uprising, from chasing Bashij patrols hiding under bridges with drones. The first IRGC members fled to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and do you remember the fire festival two weeks ago when citizens were out on the streets?
Israel has also worked hard to win over the army to the people’s side and equally hard to scare the IRGC and Bashij into desertion with threats through all channels available to them.
They have disrupted TV broadcasts several times, called for preparation for popular uprisings, but also said that citizens should lie low during the intense combat phase.
Pasha activated his immortal guard (the name…) and the first patrols were shot on the streets.
Pasha activated his transitional government in exile.
The above is factual and does not need to be questioned or discussed.
Israel now has total air superiority, and their job has been the leaders, IRGC, and Bashij, as I understand it.
The USA has provided SEAD and then the bombing of military infrastructure, and Israel has taken a bit more risks with direct overflights, as we saw in the movie.
Step two – the people rise in cities in the provinces and take over the city, when the IRGC sends a battalion there, Israel is there and shoots it away. This is how the USA has worked with the Kurds in Syria, and now the AR-10 Warthog and Apache have been brought to the area for JUST THAT TYPE OF MISSION. You don’t send your top ground attack platforms halfway around the world without a plan, right?
Fast forward a bit, and suddenly there are videos from Iraq showing thousands of Shia militias preparing to go to Iran, and then videos of them patrolling the streets in Tehran.
It is 900km between Baghdad – Tehran, and the USA also has a military presence in Iraq, right? They have known about these militias and could have fought them for at least 2-3 days, and the USA/Israel have an excellent kill-chain.
Somewhere around there, we have a turning point, and I think it has become significantly quieter about how to counter the popular uprising.
-Has Israel been overrun?
-Is it clear that the USA did a quick smash-and-grab and will get a share of everything?
-Will the USA support Israel in the upcoming chaos?
There is a HUGE risk of political chaos in Israel after this because after the Gaza operation, broad groups are not entirely satisfied to begin with, and if the Iran war is perceived as a failure, someone will have to pay the political price for it – Netanyahu?
Yes, I am a bit early with my concerns because the window is still open for Israel’s regime change, but the longer time goes by, the more uncertain it becomes.
Try to explain to me how Israel can risk their pilots’ lives to fight down to individual Bashij patrols, only to allow an equal number of Iraqi militias through in the next moment, making it a zero-sum game.
-The only conclusion that can be drawn here IF there is no attempt at a popular uprising is that the USA ran over Israel?
Let’s hope that Israel will release all the compromising material they have on everyone in the USA as revenge.
Don’t misunderstand 2.
The USA is probably quite satisfied; they seem to have scared the IRGC into getting a good deal out of this – surely there will be protection money in the end and many other perks.
The leaders of Iran have seen what happens if they try to be obstinate, so now they will do the next best thing and pay not to be killed.
Of course, they will spin it as a great victory and so on, but Trump can never keep quiet, so we know something like that is in the works.
The dictator can definitely stay as long as he pays his taxes to the USA.
The USA has achieved a lot –
-Pushback against China.
-Intimidation in the MENA region.
-More compliant Europe.
-Strengthening the status of the petrodollar.
There is really only one cloud on Trump’s orange sky – Ukraine.
They have the audacity to start negotiating with MENA countries that then dare to stand up to the USA – absolutely not part of the plan.
Ukraine is performing so well on the battlefield that Europe is starting to toughen up against the USA – also not according to plan.
Trump and the USA have really been trying to defeat the stubborn Ukrainians throughout 2025, but they simply refuse to give up.
—
The above was what I wrote on johanno1.se, back to today’s post.
In Pearson’s book, an incoming robot from Iran carried a contagious disease that spread over Israel in a week, leaving the entire defense force incapacitated when the war started – after COVID, this is not as ridiculous, is it? And it doesn’t even require a robot?
Iran could obtain a bacterial culture from any friendly country, China, or Russia, and through one person spread it in Israel without any problems. “It will spread to Iran,” someone will scream, and the response will be that the two-week window purchased in Pearson’s book was enough to overrun Israel.
But yes, Israel managed to send their nuclear weapons towards Baghdad and Tehran, if I remember correctly the last thing they did – after all, the soldiers with the firing button are isolated in bunkers for a reason, right.
Then we have nuclear weapons, and now it seems like the IRGC chooses life, but they probably feel that Israel (and the USA…) has done everything they can to kill them, so in their world, they will probably try to retaliate in every possible way in the future – that’s what I would do. The only way to get rid of the Iranian threat is if the citizens rise up and start a revolution.
With all that said – I believe that the security risk for Israel after this war, IF the IRGC remains in power, will be sky-high, and I do NOT think Israel wanted it that way, but maybe they have no choice?
Anyway – today we leave the Dominican Republic for a well-deserved vacation for three weeks, and there will be a bit of a low season with writing. Those of you who subscribe are encouraged not to unsubscribe because we will come back with a bang in a few weeks, maybe even with a post in the middle because too much is happening.
MXT will continue on johanno1.se with daily posts, and there are around a hundred excellent comments in the thread below discussing what has happened during the day, so don’t miss out on joining there.
There is quite a lot happening right now, but there will be more in our region probably if Ukraine doesn’t get there first – exciting months ahead of us, therefore.
It is also clear that Ukraine completely ignores the USA, so goals and operations they have never been allowed to do before are now on the table again, you know which ones.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
https://www.dn.se/direkt/mellanostern/2026-04-03/iran-skjutit-ner-amerikanskt-stridsflygplan/
The Iranians claim to have shot down an F35 over the country.
They also seem to have successfully attacked a major refinery. Doesn’t seem like they are ready for any peace negotiations.
“Iran claims to have shot down a US F-35 fighter jet over the country’s central parts, Reuters reports. If true, it would be the second F-35 shot down by Iran.
During the night, a large refinery in Kuwait was also hit in an Iranian drone attack, AFP reports citing state media. The facility is said to have caught fire but no injuries have been reported.
The refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, has been targeted before during the war, TT reports.”
https://omni.se/iran-har-skjutit-ner-amerikanskt-plan/a/rrr6Jl
—
There also seems to be significant disagreement about the actual extent of losses suffered by Iran. Unfortunately, I find it impossible to assess the truthfulness regarding both Trump’s and the White House’s statements and those who oppose them. Both sides are driven by political motives.
“About half of Iran’s launch ramps are still intact after five weeks of fighting, and the country still has thousands of attack drones. This is according to three sources familiar with US intelligence work speaking to CNN.
This information contradicts the messages from the White House and the Pentagon, which have repeatedly claimed that Iran’s ability to defend itself has been almost completely eliminated and that the war is essentially already won.
In a speech on Wednesday, Donald Trump said they would attack Iran “very hard” in the next two to three weeks to “finish the job.”
However, this timeline is dismissed by CNN’s sources.
“We can continue to run over them, I have no doubt about that, but you are completely crazy if you think this can be finished in two weeks.”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly tells CNN that the channel’s information is incorrect and comes from “anonymous sources desperate to attack President Trump and discredit the incredible work of the American military.”
https://omni.se/underattelsekallor-sagar-vita-husets-bild-av-kriget-helt-galen/a/6qqGKe
UZ may need a wild card in the deck?
Caught?
The first F35, is it the one with the terribly poorly made AI shootdown? Because if they claim it as number one, I strongly doubt even number two.
I haven’t seen those pictures, but it has been acknowledged that an F35 was damaged, and probably by Iran, so it was forced to make an emergency landing. It may not be directly a shooting down, but from Iran’s side, they probably claim that.
https://bsky.app/profile/malcontentnews.bsky.social/post/3mil2f3m7zk22
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-04-03
1230 KWIA
3 Tanks
6 AFVs
65 Artillery systems
1236 UAVs
177 Vehicles & fuel tanks
2 Special equipment
SLAVA UKRAINI
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3
S Slobozhansky 5
Kupyansk 7↘️
Lyman 8
Slovyansk 5
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 19💥
Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 21💥↗️
Huliaipole 40💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 13💥↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 181↗️
Unlocalized 49↗️
Total 230↗️
👍
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3
S Slobozhansky 5
Kupyansk 7↘️
Lyman 8
Slovyansk 5
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 19💥
Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 21💥↗️
Huliaipole 40💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 13💥↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 181↗️
Unlocalized 49↗️
Total 230↗️
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Heroyam Slava!
Thank you for the post Johan no 1 and have a nice vacation.
George HW Bush is now on his way from Norfolk to the Middle East to replace Gerald R Ford. I assume they have installed a sprinkler system in the laundry room and recruited some plumbers on board. Then I wonder if they haven’t replaced the F35 with the F18…
Have a nice vacation Johan and thanks for today’s yellow wall!
I don’t keep track of the details of the war in Iran so it’s interesting information, for example regarding the assistance from Iraq.
As usual, I don’t entirely agree with you, for instance, about the statement that the USA never mentioned regime change. Trump mentioned it several times at the beginning of the war and even after it started. Admittedly, not stated as a goal, but still implied (probably to make the war seem like it was about liberating the people). Now, of course, he has stopped talking about it altogether and denies it. It’s just a minor detail and unimportant. But if you write: “Above are facts and do not need to be questioned or discussed.” so… 😄
I find it difficult to speculate on Iran and all the developments and possible outcomes. We know too little, and the truthfulness of what is communicated from both sides, but perhaps mainly from the USA, is difficult to assess, and it also fluctuates. I think it’s because they were quite unprepared and entered a war they thought could be won through a brutal beginning where they would take out the leadership. Then it didn’t go at all as planned, and the longer the war goes on, the harder it is to figure out how to solve it without appearing as a loser. I guess that’s also why Israel and the USA are not quite on the same page now. Israel, of course, wants to see a completely defeated Iran, but they probably can’t achieve that on their own. On the other hand, the USA probably doesn’t dare to engage in a major ground invasion and is trying to find a way to withdraw. Israel is also busy with Lebanon where they have expanded their security zone for the second time. I find it hard to imagine that they can carry out a major ground offensive against Iran on their own.
Regardless, it’s very difficult to assess where things are heading, and I think it’s because the war didn’t go as planned at all, and therefore they are forced to improvise, which is why they also do not communicate any clear goals for the war. The USA has no idea what goals they might achieve, but when the war is over, we can be pretty sure that they will declare victory and claim that they have achieved exactly what they intended.
Regarding Ukraine, the argument that the USA has had the same plan since the war started regardless of who is president doesn’t hold. Trump opposed Ukraine all along long before he became president, and just as many of us understood, he would withdraw support when he took power.
If there are others secretly controlling the USA with the goals you outline. How come they were willing to help Ukraine with quite extensive weapons deliveries right up until Trump became president? Especially since it has been Russia that has been gaining ground all along (albeit very slowly). So, did they suddenly come to the conclusion that it’s best for Ukraine to lose? Or is it best for there to be peace? If the goal is for Russia to pose a threat to Europe and at the same time drain our economy, etc., then a continued war would rather be the smartest solution. Now they are completely undermining Ukraine. And did they come up with this turnaround by chance just as Trump took over?
They seem to continue to help with intelligence (it doesn’t cost them anything) and small-scale arms deliveries if someone else pays.
The explanation is that Biden is afraid of nuclear weapons and a third world war. He did what he could to prevent Ukraine from losing, but at the same time, he was terrified that they would go too far (cross the border, or bomb deep targets) and thus risk provoking Russia to do something drastic. Russia has been working (and is working) hard to make it appear as if it is a possibility, and then we only see their media, not how their intelligence services work. There is probably “leaked” and planted information to reinforce it even to Western intelligence services.
Trump, on the other hand, has always been against Ukraine and Zelenskyy, as I said, and it showed immediately when he came to power. Besides, he wants to make money, and he believes that Putin can help him with that.
So, he is pursuing his own line towards Ukraine. It’s not some Deep State USA behind it. Then how far Trump’s plans go is, of course, harder to know. He is upset with Europe, but he probably wasn’t from the beginning. Therefore, I don’t think he had any plan for Russia to continue to pose a threat to Europe. He just wanted to end the war, preferably with Russia as the winner to be in good standing with Putin and get his deals. Now, however, your theories might actually be something he is considering.
He probably wants to go against Europe now that we are not doing as he says. The chance that he wants to see a continued war but then between Europe and Russia has increased.
Still, I am skeptical. I believe Trump’s actions in Ukraine are, as I said, a collaboration with Putin. Putin has also long felt the need to end as a winner and has probably promised Trump good deals (and surely hidden money) if he can arrange it. That’s why Trump acts as he does with increased pressure on Ukraine.
I don’t think Russia has any interest in continuing a full-scale war against Europe. Sure, they would have some initial success, but when they can’t defeat Ukraine even though Ukraine hasn’t received on-site support, how on earth would they manage to expand the war?
It doesn’t seem logical that the USA would act as they do because they want Russia to continue fighting against us. The USA wants an end and at the same time save face for Russia (and put Zelenskyy in his place).
I am inclined to agree with you.
Biden was Pro Ukraine but unfortunately not strong/independent enough and was held back by his administration. Probably for the reasons you describe above.
That Krasnov has ALWAYS been Pro Kremlin and against Ukraine has been obvious for a long time.
I still have difficulty reconciling with the fact that he has managed to take over the GOP.
It is a completely different party today.
I agree with both MTX and Pehr.
And thanks for both Johan’s and MTX’s interesting analyses, even though they differ a bit.
Well written by both Johan and MXT, and I hope Johan has a nice vacation far away from any war zone.
I probably share the same opinion as MXT regarding Biden. He was simply too influenced by the politics during the Cold War and the fear of nuclear weapons that prevailed then. The USA and Russia were supposed to maintain a certain balance and avoid direct confrontation.
I think Trump’s relationship with Russia has to do with a couple of things, even though I might now be putting too much trust in Trump’s ability for long-term thinking.
His personal relationship with Putin, he trusts him more than his intelligence service, that was clear. The possibility to make a profit from the spoils of war if Russia takes Donbass and Crimea. The possibility to have Russia on his side against China. Help from Russia to divide the EU, in order to pressure the individual European countries into a better deal.
Johan wrote that it seems like Israel has been thrown under the bus. I can probably agree with that. Trump is completely open about being willing to make a deal with the mullahs, if he can only earn money from it, and pressure China and Europe. He also wants to withdraw from the war as soon as possible, so he can move on with Cuba. That he lies hardly comes as a surprise: INFORMATION: American giant lie exposed
https://omni.se/a/xrrB0B
French President Emmanuel Macron puts his foot down and criticizes Donald Trump’s various and sometimes contradictory statements about the Iran war, writes The Guardian.
– There is too much talk, and it is all over the place, he says about the American president’s strategy.
Lately, Trump has repeatedly attacked allies and demanded more help in the Middle East. Macron accuses the president of being unserious and finds it strange that he speaks out every day.
– If you want to be serious, you can’t go around every day saying the opposite of what you said yesterday.
Earlier this week, Trump mocked the French president during a private lunch. Trump imitated a French dialect and said, among other things, that Macron’s wife “treats him very badly,” writes AFP.
When Macron was asked about the mockery, he chose not to comment.
It will be interesting to see how the relationships between the USA and Europe will develop, or perhaps rather deteriorate, in the coming months.
Yes, scary but interesting.
And good of Macron to publicly say what everyone thinks.
Yes, it’s interesting, but it can be challenging for those who depend on LNG for electricity production.
Macron is starting to have enough. It’s probably good, so that everyone seriously begins to realize that Johan is right when he writes that the USA is not our friend. Even though I probably want to go into more detail and say that Trump is not our friend.
“French President Emmanuel Macron is drawing a line and criticizing Donald Trump’s various and sometimes contradictory statements about the Iran war, writes The Guardian.
– There is too much talk, and it’s all over the place, he says about the American president’s strategy.
Recently, Trump has attacked allies several times and demanded more help in the Middle East. Macron accuses the president of being unserious and finds it strange that he speaks out every day.
– If you want to be serious, you can’t go around every day saying the opposite of what you said yesterday.
Earlier this week, Trump mocked the French president during a private lunch. Trump imitated a French accent and said, among other things, that Macron’s wife “treats him very badly,” writes AFP.
When Macron was asked about the mockery, he chose not to comment.”
https://omni.se/macron-trott-pa-trump-det-pratas-for-mycket/a/xrrB0B
—
The other day, Trump made a statement about Springsteen. Of course, it doesn’t have any decisive significance if he disses one of the USA’s greatest artists, but one can hardly think that this is how a president should act? Actively trying to sabotage someone’s career because they criticize him as president? What will be the next step? To ban the sale of his records?
“Donald Trump is now urging his supporters to stop listening to Bruce Springsteen. He writes this in a post on his own platform Truth Social, several media outlets report.
The post comes two days after Springsteen had the premiere of his tour and criticized Trump’s policies.
The American president also chooses to launch personal attacks and describes Springsteen as “bad,” “very boring,” and suggests that the artist looks like a “dried prune that has endured a bad performance by a bad plastic surgeon.””
https://omni.se/attackerar-springsteen-trakig-ett-katrinplommon/a/bOOPmB
Two on that one about Macron! Pehr was first!
What if, for example, Obama had made such a statement, he would have been impeached.
Now we are in the boiling pot and “buying” everything the idiot says and does.
It’s probably a bit strange how the rest of the world puts up with it. It’s like with bullies in middle school. Normal people try to avoid them, and not provoke more craziness as long as possible.
Unfortunately, this bully has a lot of military and economic power, and is quick to threaten with it when contradicted. He is happy to set the world on fire if he feels that the world is not doing as he says, or if he feels that someone is trying to reprimand him.
He behaves like a self-righteous 16th-century king. I can imagine it was about the same at the court of Henry the 8th.
I had the privilege of visiting his court, and it was to say the least a tense and strained atmosphere there. Fear was constantly present of saying or doing something wrong, or stumbling upon one of the severed heads rolling around.
Trump rubs it in, apparently reads the blog:
Macron has problems with his wife, he is busy.
“Russian missiles strike apartment buildings in Kharkiv, at least 1 person injured”
En humanitär katastrof utvecklas i det av Ryssland ockuperade Oleshky, Kherson-regionen. Ett ryskt krigsbrott i stor skala. Dessa stackars människor… Ryssland håller effektivt staden under belägring: utan bränsle, el, medicin och mat.
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mil5npkeyk2i
“Here we go. Right on time. 2% of all university students in Russia will be press-ganged into the military. There are 8 million post-secondary students in Russia. 2% is 160,000 bodies that will be thrown into the meat grinder. Roughly 3x total active duty troops of Baltic states.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3mil4w464cc2h
⚡️Ukraine strikes airfield in occupied Crimea, destroys An-72 aircraft and Orion drone base. Ukrainian forces, with the help of military intelligence, struck multiple Russian military targets at the Kirovske airfield in occupied Crimea overnight on April 2, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said.
Perfect, it’s the AVTs you’re after!
“❗️As a result of yesterday’s strike on the 🇷🇺Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa, the AVT-5 primary oil processing unit was damaged, — Radio Svoboda”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mil4qec47k2o
AFU reports:
213 KAB
9,058 kamikaze drones
3,788 shelling (104 from MLRS)
The Swedish Coast Guard has boarded a new vessel in the Baltic Sea, according to Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), Minister for Civil Defense, at X. The vessel is believed to have sailed under a false flag.
An investigation into environmental crimes following an oil spill in the Swedish economic zone has also been initiated, the minister writes. However, the spill is said to be relatively small.
“At present, the Coast Guard does not see an imminent risk of the oil reaching the shore and can take action for oil spill cleanup if needed,” Bohlin writes.
The Coast Guard states in a press release that the vessel was en route from a port in the Gulf of Finland to an unknown destination. The vessel is on the EU’s sanctions list. There are 24 people on board.
“Breaking: Over 400 Russian drones detected in Ukraine’s airspace, missiles launched from bomber aircraft”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-unusual-morning-attack-with-over-400-drones-detected-in-airspace-air-force-says/
“According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, there are about a hundred Russian drones in Ukrainian air space. Most of them will be attacking Kyiv. Reportedly, Russia also launched cruise missiles, Kyiv might also be their target. Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians continue”
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2039967069769204054
Oil prices (Crude and Ural are from yesterday). Sad to see that the Russian oil, which previously has always been lower than the other two, is now the most expensive by a quite large margin.
Crude oil: 111.5
Brent oil: 109.2
Ural oil: 121.2
Thank you Johan, MXT, 205!
As mentioned, there are several positive signs that Europe is starting to show some backbone.
We will probably manage fine without the USA, as long as the USA does not turn directly against us. Unfortunately, such a turn cannot be ruled out. It has in a way already begun with the energy blackmail.
Regarding the Shia militia, I tried to verify with ChatGPT and the answer I got is that the videos are probably real but the time and place may not be accurate. It’s about disinformation.
https://youtube.com/shorts/GV-5CccmyY8?is=H5hwM7oT6oyd8CqH
In-depth analysis (based on real video + verified info)
🧩 1. Origin: what do we know for sure?
“militia convoy from Iraq to Iran”
👉 This means:
The video is not fabricated – but the context is unclear from the start.
🧩 2. Frame-by-frame (deep dive)
🎞️ Frame 1–3: Vehicles & formation
Observation:
Expert interpretation:
👉 Conclusion: almost certainly Iraqi militia
🎞️ Frame 4–6: Flags
Observation:
Verified context:
👉 HOWEVER:
🎞️ Frame 7–10: Cargo & content (very important)
Detail often missed:
Verified from reports:
👉 This changes the whole interpretation:
❗ Viral version:
“militias mobilizing for war”
✔️ Likely reality:
mix of militia + logistical/humanitarian transport
🎞️ Frame 11–15: Language (decisive)
Observation:
Consequence:
👉 This alone often suffices to debunk inaccurate captions
🎞️ Frame 16–20: Geography
Observation:
Comparison:
👉 The video:
⚠️ 3. The biggest misinterpretation (critical point)
Here’s what happens as the video spreads:
🔁 Step 1 – Genuine video
✔️ PMF convoy in Iraq (or near the border)
🔁 Step 2 – New caption
❌ “Thousands of militias on their way to invade Iran”
🔁 Step 3 – New mutation
❌ “They are now patrolling Tehran”
👉 However:
🧠 4. What is actually true (nuanced)
✔️ Iraqi militias HAVE:
BUT:
❗ There is no strong evidence that:
⚖️ Final assessment (deep level)
🔎 The video itself:
✅ Likely authentic
✅ Shows real militias
❌ The claim it is used for:
🎯 Bottom line
This is a textbook example of:
authentic video + wrong context = disinformation
ChatGPT about redirected diesel tankers:
Bottom line
Yes: some U.S. diesel tankers are being redirected or changing destinations.
But: the dominant trend is the opposite of what you might expect:
More U.S. diesel is flowing to Europe overall, not less.
What you’re seeing is short-term tactical rerouting inside a bigger surge toward Europe
…
Traders will redirect ships to wherever margins are best — even mid-voyage.
👍Big picture vs noise
We see the USA and Europe heading in different directions. But do we take the USA seriously approaching Russia, or China? Militarily, which is the most serious approach to any issue, it is actually not. All military efforts that the USA has devoted to in recent years have more or less been directed towards Russia. Can it be disputed?
Diplomacy, foreign and domestic policy vs military efforts to compare talk vs action.
That is, if the USA does not support Ukraine to the same extent as we may be used to or expect, does that mean sending Patriot systems, which they seem to need around St. Petersburg, to Russia? Or in some other way militarily undermine Ukraine (apart from what the previous administration already engaged in). Give me examples!
Is a militarily strong Iran an advantage or a disadvantage for Russia. Syria? Venezuela? Cuba? North Korea?
Has Russia been militarily weakened or strengthened by US military actions? If the answer is not that Russia has been strengthened, but weakened, does this affect anything in the war between Russia and Ukraine? If so, to whose advantage?
Russia has not been strengthened militarily, that is quite clear. At the same time, Russia’s influence in the world, like in Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Iran, has decreased significantly due to US actions. Even though it is of course troublesome for Russia, Venezuela and Cuba in particular fit into the idea of spheres of interest. The Iran war fits into Israel’s position with the American Christian right.
All this decrease in Russia’s influence is of course good. However, I believe that when it comes to Ukraine and Europe, US actions have helped Russia, not to win in the long run, but to avoid losing in the short term. Fortunately, the US has not helped Russia with arms deliveries, but on the other hand, conditioned arms deliveries to Ukraine on Ukraine agreeing to a disadvantageous peace here earlier. The bullying of Zelensky in the White House was the moment when we really saw the true face of Trump’s regime. In a discussion with bullies, a rape victim should not expect compassion, asking for help only shows weakness according to Trump’s gang.
The US’s (Trump’s) flirting with Belarus and Hungary are also indications that US policy has almost made a 180-degree turn under Trump. Trump and Putin both have a common goal to divide Europe.
Agree that there are (still) no clear evidence that Trump has promoted Russia in a clear way through actions and that there are also some contraindications.
However: