Russia attacked several residential buildings in Kyiv during the night. 10 people were killed and 56 injured, but the numbers will likely rise during the day. Zelenskyy warned earlier in the day that Russia would carry out yet another large-scale targeted attack. He seems to have good intelligence. Read more at Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine, in turn, attacked the Russian oil refinery in Yaroslavl, which is located 700 km from the Ukrainian border. The refinery has been targeted before. This time it is unclear what damage was caused and there is no information about what was used during the attack. Residents have posted pictures showing smoke said to come from fires that broke out after the attack. Kyiv Independent writes about it.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Today’s report shows that losses overall are now high, clearly above average for several categories. It is not often that Russia loses over 20 armored vehicles nowadays, and 580 soft-skinned vehicles is the second highest during the entire war.
1420 KWIA
7 tanks
16 AFVs
63 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
3 Air defense systems
1979 UAVs
12 UGVs
580 Vehicles & fuel tanks *)
4 Special equipment
3 Cruise missiles
Summary from the Ukrainian General Staff
Despite high losses in the report above and also relatively many clashes, Russia has not increased its use of suicide drones or its artillery. Previously, the increase in suicide drones was worrying, but when they reached around 10,000/day it leveled off and has since fluctuated between 8,000-10,000. At the moment, they seem to have reached their maximum capacity. The bottleneck is probably production, but it could also be the availability of drone pilots.
- 256 combat clashes
- 96 aviation strikes
- 292 KAB/CAB
- 8,825 kamikaze drones
- 2,913 shells (37 from MLRS)
SLAVA UKRAINI
Off topic, I wanted to take the opportunity to congratulate the Norwegian Vikings who rowed home the victory against Brazil yesterday!
I’m not a football fan myself, so for me the match was, as Snow White would say, “dead boring and tedious,” until the 79th minute (if I remember correctly) when it suddenly became “absolutely wonderful.” Suddenly the match came to life and we even got drama all the way to the very last seconds with a Brazilian penalty at the end. Maybe I can learn to appreciate football even outside the World Cup?
I will be cheering for Norway even when they face England. Sure, the Norwegians are starting to get a bit unbearably self-confident now, but they deserve it! 😀
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Yes, that was a strong line.
But I am a bit puzzled by the item vehicles and fuel tanks. It is almost between 400-500 per day and has been so for quite some time. That is an enormous number of vehicles. In the summary, almost 120,000. If that is correct and they are not repaired again, it only means a strain on Russian society when so many disappear. Moreover, if you take the cost of purchasing a new truck, it becomes a lot of money.
Some of the large quantities can perhaps be explained by the fact that we have also seen many motorcycles, ATVs, and even mopeds being drone-struck. If those are also counted, it may not be so surprising that there are so many.
But even if they account for 75% of the losses, it is still enormous costs for Russia to keep the logistics flowing. Early in the war, it was military transport vehicles, trucks, and tankers that were destroyed.
Later, we saw how they increasingly began to use civilian and especially simpler vehicles, besides motorcycles, also those old Russian “people buses” (which are also often called both Scooby Doo Vans and loaves on social media). The latter are simple buses that I guess Russia has large quantities of.
Recently, Ukraine has gained better range on its drones, and now we again see tankers and trucks far in the rear being hit.
It must simply cost Russia enormously to replace them, and if this pace can continue, I guess their logistics will eventually collapse.
They can of course seize transport vehicles from private companies, and with a worsening economy, the need for regular transport will naturally decrease in line with reduced demand, so they can probably hold out longer than one might think, but it is certainly noticeable.
That is probably the case, and looking at the replacement cost, it becomes expensive. In the end, an almost worthless Scoobydoo van today must be replaced with a new vehicle. But that reasoning assumes that they do not just have 50,000 vehicles parked that are not being used.
A completely different thought:
Do you think there will be an attack vector south of Kamianske? Or will they land evenly and spread out all the way from Kinburn Spit to Kamianske?
I initially think the Kinburn spit is to get rid of the Russians so that they do not reach to drone the civilian population. I don’t think it will become a real attack vector until quite late.
However, it is probably much more interesting to get a wedge in at Kamianske.
The lucky person with that, so you can get as far as to get a proper drone advantage over Tokmak northwest of Melitopol and also over Melitopol itself, can seriously threaten the Russian logistics and cut off deliveries both to Crimea and Kherson.
If that happens, I think Russia will have a very hard time holding Crimea.
Good that the MSM highlights the Russian devils’ terror.
Rescue workers are digging out dead and injured after last night’s Russian attack on at least 15 residential buildings in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.
22-year-old Alyona follows the operation from a nearby playground. She has tears in her eyes and hopes for news about her friend Vika who is missing.
– We are sitting here waiting. She is so kind, only 19 years old, such a friendly girl, Alyona tells Reuters.
At least eleven people were killed in Kyiv during the night and 46 were injured. Odesa was also attacked.
“These are residential buildings. Places where people slept and lived their normal lives,” writes Kyiv’s military administration chief Tymur Tkatjenko on Telegram.
https://omni.se/a/Ar0d9n
** Scenes from Kyiv at this hour, as Russia launches aother large scale missile attack on the city’s civilian population. **
https://bsky.app/profile/stratcomcentre.bsky.social/post/3mpxlk7ln5t2e
** Fighters of Ukraine’s 57th Brigade eliminated small Russian infantry groups near Vovchansk.**
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpxlidtufk2l
** In occupied Berdiansk, a fire burns at what used to be the AzovKabel plant. Local reports suggest it houses only military there these days. Perhaps they’re not there any more. **
https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3mpxl5w3yk22a
Many Kyiv residents/Ukrainians do not have access to shelters or proximity to the subway. This was highlighted in the thread under a post by a Kyiv resident on X yesterday with a recording where air raid sirens can be heard in the background.
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/2073946275754508668?s=46
Despite somewhat lower Ukrainian pressure (unlocalized attacks), they maintained or even increased the ratio on the battlefield, whose intensity decreased as the Russian attacks also diminished – proportionally even more than the Ukrainian ones. MXT is right, the ratio matters.
A thought that a portion of the Ukrainian pressure consists of counterattacks (not defensive) during Russian attacks. I mentioned something similar along these lines in yesterday’s thread, regarding critical situations (e.g., a Ukrainian unit encircled). At the same time, we have a portion of Ukrainian attacks that are not direct reactions to Russian attacks, but constitute the Ukrainian offensive itself, as Johan has pointed out a few times. The above reasonably means that when Russian attacks drop sharply, we can also expect Ukrainian attacks to decline – to some extent. Therefore, it is interesting to see that there is a floor of at least 100 Ukrainian attacks per day that the numbers rarely break through, and that floor may have increased somewhat now if you look at the average.
N Slobozhansky 2, S Slobozhansky 12💥, Kupyansk 2, Lyman 9💥, Slovyansk 33💥💥↗️, Kramatorsk 0, Kostjantynivka 16💥, Pokrovsk 30💥💥, Oleksandrivskij 4↘️, Huliaipole 21💥↘️, Orikhivsk 0↘️, Prydniprovskij 0,
Localized 129↘️, Unlocalized 127↘️, Total 256↘️, Ratio unloc/loc 1.0.
Yes, interesting observation. Most indications therefore suggest that Ukraine is putting more pressure and is more active regardless of what Russia is doing.
Another observation is that the peaks were previously significantly higher and occurred at almost regular intervals. The curve moves up and down even now but it is considerably flatter.
Quite early in the war, I noticed for a period that Russian losses went up and down at a fairly regular interval. I then speculated that it might be because they gathered supplies at the front and when they were in place, they made new advance attempts. It was basically 30-day intervals even if it was not exactly on the same day and not at the turn of the month. That did not last very long, bigger changes in the war caused it to stop.
The theory that logistics may partly be behind when the Russian attacks are carried out can nevertheless still have some truth to it. Now Ukraine has gained an advantage when it comes to logistics and is also more active. This may possibly mean that the Russians can no longer attack at the intervals they want but are forced to fight at roughly the same level all the time without getting full replenishment of personnel, supplies, and equipment. If so, it will wear them down hard, and it should be noticeable in the end.
Fake news (not April Fool’s), right? 🇳🇴 🇧🇷
The Norwegians must have gotten to the Norwegian-descended Den Gamle who did something with the energy drinks in the Brazilian team..
😂 Spiked with light beer?
Yes, Dengamle is gone 🧐
Maybe he is going to win the World Cup instead?
Does Europe have interceptors?
This is Krasnov 100%, after the fighter jets could not be stopped, he had to hold back the Patriot.
It is VERY suspicious.
Japan has, after all, started delivering license-built Patriot missiles, or did they get a no from the USA?
Follow-up question – why doesn’t Europe deliver a large quantity of hemp and iris to Ukraine?
What is happening – I guess I need to dive into this now.
The entire robot rain hit pretty much – what was the target, do we know that?
Seems to be mainly residences.
I think I also saw a gas station but it was probably the usual KAB near the front.
If they had hit any high-value target, we probably wouldn’t get any information about it even though it surely happens now and then.
The only thing I think I’ve seen where they admitted something was that the production of Flamingo was affected and delayed.
operation turn off the light
SampT – 300 per year but recently scaled up.
patriot license in Germany
nasams is raytheon.
Has Europe started hoarding themselves?
Should be enough to give UA a few hundred?
Two reasons – we must meet NATO regulations for our defense
and critical components are missing due to import problems.
Does Europe also lack an effective missile defense now?
We do have planes and their systems, maybe that’s enough?
Russia probably doesn’t have a huge production of ballistic missiles, otherwise they would send many more.
At the same time, our air force probably isn’t sufficient for a long time if they are the ones to combat them, because we probably don’t have that many either (they are also expensive).
If we were to go to war with Russia, we would probably have to strike hard at depth to decide quickly.
There, however, our air force might prove superior.
Just a guess.
💥🔥✊️👍
FINALLY!
They have finally reached the Omsk refinery! Now I hope they can continue and also smash all the military industry located there.
“❗️Ukraine’s Defense Forces reportedly struck the Omsk Oil Refinery, with upgraded FP-1 drones said to have hit the ELOU-AVT-11 crude distillation unit more than 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border. Impacts on the unit’s process columns were reported.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpxyizlndc2l
“Omsk … moment of a double attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3mpxzaoq3us2x
“Fire Point CTO Iryna Terekh said the strike on the Omsk Oil Refinery was historic because it is Russia’s largest refinery, nearly twice as powerful as Moscow’s, and the only Russian refinery producing cracking catalysts used in secondary oil processing.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpy2k6wky22l
The same day that Russia has killed at least 18 Ukrainians and injured many more, including five children, they still have the nerve to complain about a paint attack on their embassy. 🤮
“Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that Sweden’s ambassador has been summoned, Reuters writes, referring to the Russian state-controlled news agency Tass. The background is Russian reports of a paint attack on Russia’s embassy in Stockholm last week. The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms to Expressen that the ambassador has been summoned. Otherwise, the Ministry refers to the police, who in turn do not want to comment on the reports of the paint attack.”
https://omni.se/a/y5x3Pa
O mes-Sweden with the interest club of the spineless does not confront them.
Throw out the trash!
Bitterly, we should protect the embassy, as we would like to have the same protection in ryz.
“🔥 Two primary processing units are burning.
Approximately 10% of all oil refining in Russia falls on the Omsk Refinery.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mpy2yqkvjk2l
They are probably getting a bit desperate. 😂
“Meanwhile in Russia: head of RT Margarita Simonyan was sent out on a charm offensive to butter up China and went all-out. She named her favorite Chinese delicacies, praised her Chinese shoes from Alibaba, and predicted that China will rule the world.”
https://x.com/i/status/2073971574802194669
Off-Topic, football.
Red cards don’t apply when corrupt FIFA and the USA’s most corrupt president pull in the same direction. UEFA doesn’t seem satisfied, and having seen what happened, one must say it is deplorable.
Go Belgium! 😂
“FIFA’s lifting of the suspension against the USA’s attacking star Folarin Balogun ‘is unprecedented’ and ‘incomprehensible and indefensible.’ This is stated by the European football organization UEFA in a press release. They further argue that football is based on its rules and that the decision threatens ‘the integrity of the game.’ FIFA’s decision has received harsh criticism from all corners of the football world – including former star Wayne Rooney and the demon coach Jürgen Klopp. According to several media outlets, it was Donald Trump who got FIFA’s president Gianni Infantino to lift the suspension.”
https://omni.se/a/y5xRgR
The problem with FIFA is that the system is rigged in a similar way to the UN, one country one vote. However, here we have no veto rights, but that in itself fosters a pure corruption structure. Countries with lacking, or completely absent, democracy are in the majority and they like Infantino’s leadership style.
https://www.dn.se/sport/johan-esk-det-ar-europas-fel-att-fifa-clownen-sitter-sa-sakert/