Russia attacked several residential buildings in Kyiv during the night. 10 people were killed and 56 injured, but the numbers will likely rise during the day. Zelenskyy warned earlier in the day that Russia would carry out yet another large-scale targeted attack. He seems to have good intelligence. Read more at Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine, in turn, attacked the Russian oil refinery in Yaroslavl, which is located 700 km from the Ukrainian border. The refinery has been targeted before. This time it is unclear what damage was caused and there is no information about what was used during the attack. Residents have posted pictures showing smoke said to come from fires that broke out after the attack. Kyiv Independent writes about it.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Today’s report shows that losses overall are now high, clearly above average for several categories. It is not often that Russia loses over 20 armored vehicles nowadays, and 580 soft-skinned vehicles is the second highest during the entire war.
1420 KWIA
7 tanks
16 AFVs
63 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
3 Air defense systems
1979 UAVs
12 UGVs
580 Vehicles & fuel tanks *)
4 Special equipment
3 Cruise missiles
Summary from the Ukrainian General Staff
Despite high losses in the report above and also relatively many clashes, Russia has not increased its use of suicide drones or its artillery. Previously, the increase in suicide drones was worrying, but when they reached around 10,000/day it leveled off and has since fluctuated between 8,000-10,000. At the moment, they seem to have reached their maximum capacity. The bottleneck is probably production, but it could also be the availability of drone pilots.
- 256 combat clashes
- 96 aviation strikes
- 292 KAB/CAB
- 8,825 kamikaze drones
- 2,913 shells (37 from MLRS)
SLAVA UKRAINI
Off topic, I wanted to take the opportunity to congratulate the Norwegian Vikings who rowed home the victory against Brazil yesterday!
I’m not a football fan myself, so for me the match was, as Snow White would say, “dead boring and tedious,” until the 79th minute (if I remember correctly) when it suddenly became “absolutely wonderful.” Suddenly the match came to life and we even got drama all the way to the very last seconds with a Brazilian penalty at the end. Maybe I can learn to appreciate football even outside the World Cup?
I will be cheering for Norway even when they face England. Sure, the Norwegians are starting to get a bit unbearably self-confident now, but they deserve it! 😀
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Yes, that was a strong line.
But I am a bit puzzled by the item vehicles and fuel tanks. It is almost between 400-500 per day and has been so for quite some time. That is an enormous number of vehicles. In the summary, almost 120,000. If that is correct and they are not repaired again, it only means a strain on Russian society when so many disappear. Moreover, if you take the cost of purchasing a new truck, it becomes a lot of money.
Some of the large quantities can perhaps be explained by the fact that we have also seen many motorcycles, ATVs, and even mopeds being drone-struck. If those are also counted, it may not be so surprising that there are so many.
But even if they account for 75% of the losses, it is still enormous costs for Russia to keep the logistics flowing. Early in the war, it was military transport vehicles, trucks, and tankers that were destroyed.
Later, we saw how they increasingly began to use civilian and especially simpler vehicles, besides motorcycles, also those old Russian “people buses” (which are also often called both Scooby Doo Vans and loaves on social media). The latter are simple buses that I guess Russia has large quantities of.
Recently, Ukraine has gained better range on its drones, and now we again see tankers and trucks far in the rear being hit.
It must simply cost Russia enormously to replace them, and if this pace can continue, I guess their logistics will eventually collapse.
They can of course seize transport vehicles from private companies, and with a worsening economy, the need for regular transport will naturally decrease in line with reduced demand, so they can probably hold out longer than one might think, but it is certainly noticeable.
That is probably the case, and looking at the replacement cost, it becomes expensive. In the end, an almost worthless Scoobydoo van today must be replaced with a new vehicle. But that reasoning assumes that they do not just have 50,000 vehicles parked that are not being used.
A completely different thought:
Do you think there will be an attack vector south of Kamianske? Or will they land evenly and spread out all the way from Kinburn Spit to Kamianske?
I initially think the Kinburn spit is to get rid of the Russians so that they do not reach to drone the civilian population. I don’t think it will become a real attack vector until quite late.
However, it is probably much more interesting to get a wedge in at Kamianske.
The lucky person with that, so you can get as far as to get a proper drone advantage over Tokmak northwest of Melitopol and also over Melitopol itself, can seriously threaten the Russian logistics and cut off deliveries both to Crimea and Kherson.
If that happens, I think Russia will have a very hard time holding Crimea.
Good that the MSM highlights the Russian devils’ terror.
Rescue workers are digging out dead and injured after last night’s Russian attack on at least 15 residential buildings in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.
22-year-old Alyona follows the operation from a nearby playground. She has tears in her eyes and hopes for news about her friend Vika who is missing.
– We are sitting here waiting. She is so kind, only 19 years old, such a friendly girl, Alyona tells Reuters.
At least eleven people were killed in Kyiv during the night and 46 were injured. Odesa was also attacked.
“These are residential buildings. Places where people slept and lived their normal lives,” writes Kyiv’s military administration chief Tymur Tkatjenko on Telegram.
https://omni.se/a/Ar0d9n
** Scenes from Kyiv at this hour, as Russia launches aother large scale missile attack on the city’s civilian population. **
https://bsky.app/profile/stratcomcentre.bsky.social/post/3mpxlk7ln5t2e
** Fighters of Ukraine’s 57th Brigade eliminated small Russian infantry groups near Vovchansk.**
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpxlidtufk2l
** In occupied Berdiansk, a fire burns at what used to be the AzovKabel plant. Local reports suggest it houses only military there these days. Perhaps they’re not there any more. **
https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3mpxl5w3yk22a
Many Kyiv residents/Ukrainians do not have access to shelters or proximity to the subway. This was highlighted in the thread under a post by a Kyiv resident on X yesterday with a recording where air raid sirens can be heard in the background.
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/2073946275754508668?s=46
Despite somewhat lower Ukrainian pressure (unlocalized attacks), they maintained or even increased the ratio on the battlefield, whose intensity decreased as the Russian attacks also diminished – proportionally even more than the Ukrainian ones. MXT is right, the ratio matters.
A thought that a portion of the Ukrainian pressure consists of counterattacks (not defensive) during Russian attacks. I mentioned something similar along these lines in yesterday’s thread, regarding critical situations (e.g., a Ukrainian unit encircled). At the same time, we have a portion of Ukrainian attacks that are not direct reactions to Russian attacks, but constitute the Ukrainian offensive itself, as Johan has pointed out a few times. The above reasonably means that when Russian attacks drop sharply, we can also expect Ukrainian attacks to decline – to some extent. Therefore, it is interesting to see that there is a floor of at least 100 Ukrainian attacks per day that the numbers rarely break through, and that floor may have increased somewhat now if you look at the average.
N Slobozhansky 2, S Slobozhansky 12💥, Kupyansk 2, Lyman 9💥, Slovyansk 33💥💥↗️, Kramatorsk 0, Kostjantynivka 16💥, Pokrovsk 30💥💥, Oleksandrivskij 4↘️, Huliaipole 21💥↘️, Orikhivsk 0↘️, Prydniprovskij 0,
Localized 129↘️, Unlocalized 127↘️, Total 256↘️, Ratio unloc/loc 1.0.
Yes, interesting observation. Most indications therefore suggest that Ukraine is putting more pressure and is more active regardless of what Russia is doing.
Another observation is that the peaks were previously significantly higher and occurred at almost regular intervals. The curve moves up and down even now but it is considerably flatter.
Quite early in the war, I noticed for a period that Russian losses went up and down at a fairly regular interval. I then speculated that it might be because they gathered supplies at the front and when they were in place, they made new advance attempts. It was basically 30-day intervals even if it was not exactly on the same day and not at the turn of the month. That did not last very long, bigger changes in the war caused it to stop.
The theory that logistics may partly be behind when the Russian attacks are carried out can nevertheless still have some truth to it. Now Ukraine has gained an advantage when it comes to logistics and is also more active. This may possibly mean that the Russians can no longer attack at the intervals they want but are forced to fight at roughly the same level all the time without getting full replenishment of personnel, supplies, and equipment. If so, it will wear them down hard, and it should be noticeable in the end.
Fake news (not April Fool’s), right? 🇳🇴 🇧🇷
The Norwegians must have gotten to the Norwegian-descended Den Gamle who did something with the energy drinks in the Brazilian team..
😂 Spiked with light beer?
Yes, Dengamle is gone 🧐
Maybe he is going to win the World Cup instead?
Does Europe have interceptors?
This is Krasnov 100%, after the fighter jets could not be stopped, he had to hold back the Patriot.
It is VERY suspicious.
Japan has, after all, started delivering license-built Patriot missiles, or did they get a no from the USA?
Follow-up question – why doesn’t Europe deliver a large quantity of hemp and iris to Ukraine?
What is happening – I guess I need to dive into this now.
The entire robot rain hit pretty much – what was the target, do we know that?
Seems to be mainly residences.
I think I also saw a gas station but it was probably the usual KAB near the front.
If they had hit any high-value target, we probably wouldn’t get any information about it even though it surely happens now and then.
The only thing I think I’ve seen where they admitted something was that the production of Flamingo was affected and delayed.
operation turn off the light
SampT – 300 per year but recently scaled up.
patriot license in Germany
nasams is raytheon.
Has Europe started hoarding themselves?
Should be enough to give UA a few hundred?
Two reasons – we must meet NATO regulations for our defense
and critical components are missing due to import problems.
Does Europe also lack an effective missile defense now?
We do have planes and their systems, maybe that’s enough?
Russia probably doesn’t have a huge production of ballistic missiles, otherwise they would send many more.
At the same time, our air force probably isn’t sufficient for a long time if they are the ones to combat them, because we probably don’t have that many either (they are also expensive).
If we were to go to war with Russia, we would probably have to strike hard at depth to decide quickly.
There, however, our air force might prove superior.
Just a guess.
💥🔥✊️👍
FINALLY!
They have finally reached the Omsk refinery! Now I hope they can continue and also smash all the military industry located there.
“❗️Ukraine’s Defense Forces reportedly struck the Omsk Oil Refinery, with upgraded FP-1 drones said to have hit the ELOU-AVT-11 crude distillation unit more than 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border. Impacts on the unit’s process columns were reported.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpxyizlndc2l
“Omsk … moment of a double attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3mpxzaoq3us2x
“Fire Point CTO Iryna Terekh said the strike on the Omsk Oil Refinery was historic because it is Russia’s largest refinery, nearly twice as powerful as Moscow’s, and the only Russian refinery producing cracking catalysts used in secondary oil processing.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mpy2k6wky22l
The same day that Russia has killed at least 18 Ukrainians and injured many more, including five children, they still have the nerve to complain about a paint attack on their embassy. 🤮
“Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that Sweden’s ambassador has been summoned, Reuters writes, referring to the Russian state-controlled news agency Tass. The background is Russian reports of a paint attack on Russia’s embassy in Stockholm last week. The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms to Expressen that the ambassador has been summoned. Otherwise, the Ministry refers to the police, who in turn do not want to comment on the reports of the paint attack.”
https://omni.se/a/y5x3Pa
O mes-Sweden with the interest club of the spineless does not confront them.
Throw out the trash!
Bitterly, we should protect the embassy, as we would like to have the same protection in ryz.
“🔥 Two primary processing units are burning.
Approximately 10% of all oil refining in Russia falls on the Omsk Refinery.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mpy2yqkvjk2l
Ukraine has attacked Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, nearly 250 miles from the country’s border, according to the Ukrainian military on Facebook.
A fire has broken out at the refinery, but it is still unclear how much damage the attack has caused.
Ukrainian Pravda writes that this is the first time the facility has been hit by Ukrainian drones. It is also reported to be the deepest attack carried out on Russian territory since the war broke out.
Repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy facilities have led to a severe fuel crisis in the country. Ukraine is said to have struck refineries at least 194 times so far this year, according to the Financial Times.
https://omni.se/a/pBKAa6
They are probably getting a bit desperate. 😂
“Meanwhile in Russia: head of RT Margarita Simonyan was sent out on a charm offensive to butter up China and went all-out. She named her favorite Chinese delicacies, praised her Chinese shoes from Alibaba, and predicted that China will rule the world.”
https://x.com/i/status/2073971574802194669
Off-Topic, football.
Red cards don’t apply when corrupt FIFA and the USA’s most corrupt president pull in the same direction. UEFA doesn’t seem satisfied, and having seen what happened, one must say it is deplorable.
Go Belgium! 😂
“FIFA’s lifting of the suspension against the USA’s attacking star Folarin Balogun ‘is unprecedented’ and ‘incomprehensible and indefensible.’ This is stated by the European football organization UEFA in a press release. They further argue that football is based on its rules and that the decision threatens ‘the integrity of the game.’ FIFA’s decision has received harsh criticism from all corners of the football world – including former star Wayne Rooney and the demon coach Jürgen Klopp. According to several media outlets, it was Donald Trump who got FIFA’s president Gianni Infantino to lift the suspension.”
https://omni.se/a/y5xRgR
The problem with FIFA is that the system is rigged in a similar way to the UN, one country one vote. However, here we have no veto rights, but that in itself fosters a pure corruption structure. Countries with lacking, or completely absent, democracy are in the majority and they like Infantino’s leadership style.
https://www.dn.se/sport/johan-esk-det-ar-europas-fel-att-fifa-clownen-sitter-sa-sakert/
USA eliminated
0–1 Charles de Ketelaere (9)
1–1 Malik Tillman (31)
1–2 Charles de Ketelaere (33)
1–3 Hans Vanaken (57)
1–4 Romelu Lukaku (93)
👍
I don’t believe that at all.
“The end of the Ukraine war is closer than people think. That is what US President Donald Trump said at a press conference. He also says that peace in Ukraine is high on the agenda in connection with the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey this week, Reuters reports.
– Putin wants to end the war, Ukraine wants to end the war. Talks are ongoing, and then we will see if we can end it.
Trump also believes that the Russian president ‘feels pressured’ due to Ukrainian attacks and international sanctions.”
https://omni.se/a/j0kB4A
Putin will very soon try a fake ceasefire because he needs a water break.
When that happens, Europe MUST stand strong.
Well, I’ve checked a bit this morning because this is important.
We know for sure that Europe still does not have anti-drone capability – for me, that is indisputable. It’s on the way but we do not have it YET.
RU can operate around 10k FPV drones per day and about 500 Gerans/2 days approximately.
Their missiles can handle 100 in one operation but, as you say, they don’t have too many.
How many do they have?
Ukraine fights Grau arsenals now and then, it’s hard to predict.
What we know is that China has built up Russia’s production lines since 2023. Last time I checked they had about 2000 in stockpiles –
New missile production, +800 Iskander/year
120/year Zircon which are supposed to be tricky although a ship missile?
The rest of the missiles are produced at a rate of 1500-2000/year.
—
The USA is holding back, if the Iran war was a sham operation to drain US stockpiles, conspiracy theorists discuss, but the fact is that 1700 Patriots are used up and the USA has an acute shortage.
Patriot 300/year.
We have to buy NASAMS.
SamPT – 100/year.
—
How many do we have in stockpiles, not very many I guess because we are stingy with Ukraine now, they get nothing.
—
Digging deeper – we are per doctrine and choice reactive, right?
Finland is, as far as I know, the only country that has stated they will fight proactively?
—
In the Baltics, my favorite area right now, there are 2-3-4 heavy air defense systems depending on the day of the week apparently.
Ukraine has “dozens”…
So there is almost no ground-based defense at all in the Baltics against missiles.
—
Since we have not yet been at war, it is not unreasonable that we have not yet understood how vulnerable large weapons platforms are to drone weapons. The Baltics are not very wide and RU knows very well that they defend the capitals which makes the area even smaller.
They are more vulnerable today than four years ago and one needs to understand how to protect them the hard way.
—
We have our air forces in the rest of Europe that hopefully can shoot down missiles?
—
The drone weapon is an acute weakness for us that we have perhaps worked away over two years, it is new and there is an explanation why.
Not having adequate protection against missiles is indefensible and direct negligence, Cold War weapons that we have built an entire arms industry to defend against.
—
I did NOT see this coming, I thought Europe had started manufacturing in large quantities when Trump came to power because it did not take long before it was clear what he was up to.
Now Ukraine asks us for interceptors from our emergency stockpiles because new production is not until 2027 for delivery.
Then we have to add another piece to the puzzle where Europe is weak when we should be strong.
—
The risk is not so much the Baltics as that Russia can threaten with something whenever they want a ceasefire and frozen fronts sometime in the future if not longer.
The answers to all my posts are always that Europe has enormous retaliatory capability but whenever you start digging a bit it looks like this – pure negligence.
Rheinmetall says that Merkel was the devil herself and tried to disarm but now it is 2026 and there has been full war since 2022.
See answers in the thread on the topic:
The shortage of PAC3 interceptors for Patriot missile defense systems in the world is hard for me to understand. If there are good investigative reports out there explaining this tragedy, please post them below.
https://x.com/mcfaul/status/2074069699525071185?s=46
Was a reply to MXT above 😀
Is MXT Omsk and Yaroslavl the same raff?
I don’t think so, and now your dream about Omsk came true 😀
Last untouched, right?
No, it is not the same.
Yes, I have been waiting for Omsk.
That is probably not the last haul, there is a large one far, far east, I don’t remember the name of the city, but they will probably never reach it except possibly through sabotage.
Don’t forget the railway bridge over the Irtysh. It would be a major setback for freight transport on the Trans-Siberian Railway if Ukraine scores a direct hit.
Yamal cross 😍😍😍
Let’s do it 💥
👍
Krasnov increases the pressure ahead of the NATO meeting.
We pray to the gods that there will be no ceasefire.
Zelenskyy handles him exemplary.
“Donald Trump is beginning to see the war from a new perspective and is increasingly siding with Ukraine. That is what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tells the Financial Times.
– President Trump wants to be where there are successes. That is connected to many things. Not just his personality but also the upcoming elections, his status, and his belief in how this war can end.
Last Saturday, Trump reportedly said that Ukraine is ‘doing very well’ with its long-range attacks on targets on Russian soil.”
https://omni.se/a/bOQz85
** ⚡ The Russian pro-war blogger Egor Guzenko is wanted for desertion from the frontline in Ukraine.
https://wsocial.eu/profile/united24media.com/post/3mpyjl7bamm27
🤣🤣🤣
** A potential ceasefire would give Ukraine a much-needed break – but would raise difficult security issues for NATO states along Russia’s border. European defense planners are increasingly sounding the alarm about the prospects of battle-hardened, modernized Russian armies being freed up for deployment along the Baltic or Nordic borders.
https://wsocial.eu/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3mpy452r4gs2m
They are more than legally late on that ball, clappers 😀
Military preparations have a lead time of several years, not that you stand there blinking the day before.
That’s how it is. You could also say, “That’s exactly what I’ve said time and time again.”
Yes, those guys usually become popular 😀
I call this BREAKING.
The heavy battalion in Estonia seems to have already rotated out?
A new one is supposed to rotate in “later this summer,” very uncertain.
There are 100 US soldiers left in Estonia.
“Until recently, the U.S. contingent in Estonia numbered between 500 and 700 troops, stationed at Tapa, in southern Estonia, and at other military sites across the country. That number has now fallen to fewer than 100 personnel. Officials have not disclosed any information about future troop movements or the deployment of additional U.S. forces to Europe.”
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/u-s-pulls-most-troops-out-of-estonia-no-military-presence-planned-beyond-2027/
That means ALL American offensive units are now gone from the Baltics, Germany, and Poland.
That was the ground force I was waiting for to see if there would be a conflict or not, now we’ll see if the unit that is supposed to rotate in shows up – probably not.
Trump – Putin recently had a long conversation.
Probably about the Baltics.
Europe should immediately send units to the eastern Baltics that can dig in.
Finland threatens pre-emptive strikes against RU if they build up capabilities, so the tone is already beyond a few brigades in the eastern Baltics.
I know that the thread sees this as an impossibility, but too many factors are pointing that way now for it to be possible to ignore any longer.
Then if it happens, the thread will say “previously it was not possible but recently X changed so then everything changed” and then one will probably just sit there forgotten again 😀
Burying oneself takes time, the units must be made ready to march, relocated, and then out into the terrain to build up their defensive positions and mine with the mines we have left after that damn Ottawa Treaty.
From zero to buried, one month?
Why the Baltics do not declare mobilization and do it themselves you will have to ask someone else, they haven’t even managed to build their defense line in 4.5 years…
Finland is the only country that is taking this seriously now and says that they will combat targets preventively if RU builds up against them.
It is probably speculated that cuts may be announced during the NATO meeting since so many countries are below 5% or are using the money incorrectly, that is, not to American suppliers.
Patriot batteries will probably be urgently needed somewhere else immediately rather than in Europe, maybe Hawaii 😐
Anyway, the next critical time is at the turn of July/August.
I knew that the heavy American battalion in Estonia was scheduled to rotate out at the end of summer, checked that.
So it was quietly withdrawn now instead – forced.
Read into that whatever you want…