10:35 – Johan No.1
With a twinkle in the eye here, we have positive life-affirmers who are filling a cool riverboat with everything extra and the group of pessimists whose glass is half empty and who feel that we are always one step away from the great Ukrainian collapse. Sometimes you wonder if a Ukrainian loss would trigger the first positive reaction in a year, like a quick barely noticeable twitch at the corner of the mouth, just so we boat enthusiasts would be wrong rather than anything else.
So far it has paid off unreasonably much to believe in the next spectacular victory and the formula is simple.
I’ll turn the reasoning around to make it even clearer – if I had been sitting and chanting about the imminent Ukrainian victory when Ukraine month after month lost more and more land and between March/April 2022 – January 2023 had lost 40% of its territory, there would have been some discussion about the reasonableness of that, right?
I probably would have done it anyway to support Ukraine as everything was born in a time when the media wanted us to believe that Kiev would fall within three days and every expert believed in defeat but we couldn’t see it.
At the start of the war, many believed that France and Germany managed to persuade Zelensky not to mobilize the army because Russia had no intention of attacking and they did not want to provoke anything. Russia used France and Germany for a successful psyops, and Zelensky will have to live with this. He probably will not be re-elected after the war.
Down in the south, the bribes were probably paid out, and they made enormous territorial gains in the first days. SBU chiefs have been fired, as well as other senior officials, so there it went as planned for the entire special operation. They had booked tables at all the fancy restaurants in Kiev for a week after the war started, so they clearly believed in their superiority and that the whole country had received their bribes. The rumor went that the FSB had stolen the bribe money, right or wrong.
Russia had all the time in the world to prepare and could attack anywhere at a time they chose.
The terrain taken then doesn’t really count; what is interesting is what has happened after the major redeployment from Kiev so that the special operation could become even more successful than it already was.
The Russians have lost more than 40% of the total conquered area and have attacked like the best gymnasts across the fields, they have fired 5000(?) missiles, lost 6000 IFVs and over 3000 tanks, and suffered greater losses than in any of their wars since WW2.
– We know that Russian capability is declining and Ukrainian capability is increasing.
– The Russian side has suffered 1500 – 2000 losses per day since January 6.
– We know that motivation is maintained with barrier battalions and the whip without carrots.
– We know that Ukrainian motivation is existential; they have waited 200 years to get revenge and now they got the chance.
– We know that LPR and DPR are under great pressure and that the majority in their armies are conscripts. We also know that before 2014, when subversive activities started in earnest, the tensions were about like when people from northern Sweden occasionally look down on those from Stockholm.
– We know that the entire West supports Ukraine with materiel and that no one supports Russia, and that they ran an Afghan.
To be positive with all this information freely available is basically a normal state, even if it is painted in brighter colors.
I didn’t think it would be necessary anymore, but a few weeks ago Ramstein Friday felt like a poor wake, and one had to dare to refuse to be depressed after loading up with the most expensive chips and mid-range canned beer for a great evening that just couldn’t fail. Then it becomes more a fight against depression than browsing the signs of Russian loss and Ukrainian victory, admittedly.
What I find most interesting about this thread, besides the collective mood swings, is that it is a demonstration of democracy. Sure, we have “boil the Russian in oil” comments and the Turks have had their share here, but there is a democratic undertone that constantly explains why the free West acts in a certain way on a particular issue. There were those who crossed the line with the disguised god Scholz, and the nickname “The Eel” was directly inappropriate – I have always thought so.
The country Sweden has shown the highest level of democratic thinking and legal pathos here and gets an A++ for the CV90 and Archer deliveries.
My understanding of the free West has probably increased more than my understanding of fascist dictatorship and the importance of positive thinking since the start of the war.
Then, from the stands, one has witnessed the birth of a fascist dictatorship and the prelude to a world war, and it has been incredibly clear how WW2 could become the war it was. Instead of reading pre-packaged history, one has been able to draw their own conclusions, and then one knows, instead of believing one knows.
It’s not over yet, I understand that too, but step one is torpedoed, and it is my full conviction that the Russians have behaved so badly that they have awakened the sleeping West, and the first half is now over.
It would be foolish of China to jump in and wave samurai swords in the second period, and they understand that, so our time’s world war probably did not happen.
We have the Ukrainian infantry to thank for that, those who were in the trenches when the Russian special operation started and were ready to die but sold themselves as dearly as possible.
I think it has a lot to do with the individual soldier’s qualities, combat value, and morale. If you watch any film about 1940, you see how an army at war footing can cut through a peace-loving people in minutes, even then when they should have had problems at least in the Norwegian mountains.
Here, all the pieces fell into place, and it was lucky for us that they did because Serbia, Hungary, and probably Moldova would have directly allied with Russia if Ukraine had fallen. Why do you think they held Kherson so long…
Then all the other countries in the Balkans would have endured enormous psyops and fallen one by one over a couple of years.
Turkey, of course, would have played both sides as usual.
Belarus would have had permanent Russian troops increasing, Kaliningrad would have become a garrison camp, the 20 new divisions would have been set up quietly over 5-10 years, and they would have used chemical weapons and incited left-right, ethnic-immigrant, and other groups against each other. The West would have had a difficult balancing act between its democracy and active undermining.
When the Baltic states had a landslide victory for the Soviet-loving party and chose to leave NATO and ally with Russia – what could the free West do then (a very far-fetched example of subversive activity…).
We would all have become gloomier and poorer and lived with the looming threat that makes the Finns value their conscription so highly and that makes them just smile with their eyes.
In Asia, China would have started its expansion with Taiwan, and in MENA, Iran would have started moving to turn Israel into a paved parking lot.
At least we would have had an active cold war and at worst a world war, but Ukrainian shooting down NLAW spoiled the party.
Book tip – Total War 2006 by Simon Pearson. Read it sometime in the early 2000s and it was an eye-opener. Now it might not be as much of an aha.
Now it became a rambling post again where I immediately lost the red thread, but I think I wanted to nuance the picture of restless positivity here – I consider it well-founded and that the probability is constantly increasing that Ukraine will liberate its country by force or that the Russians will interrupt the special operation.
It came up at the very beginning of the war that an overly positive attitude would never work in working life. I have doubled a bit in municipal operations, and you all know that projects never get done because of endless circular arguments and that different authorities and departments within the same authority work against each other, for taxpayers’ money…
Since it is better for taxpayers to get a completed contract at a reasonable cost before having to tear down the entire object/construction and build new, I tried to see if it was possible to get large complex projects going that had been lying dormant for 20-30 years despite 2-3 attempts, and it worked perfectly well with a bit of positive thinking even there; you had to run over the worst defeatists, but it worked.
”Winner’s mentality” (not to be confused with my guest appearance in municipal operations, there are no winners there) has definitely been an important factor in Ukraine’s successes here; they have had a year of constant setbacks but they keep going and constantly believe they see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Imagine how easy it would have been to retreat behind the Dnieper, for example, or to give up Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts for peace, or for Zelensky to have taken the bribe money and moved to Italy.
Everything would have been a good compromise and no one would have blamed them, but they had unwavering integrity and were prepared to die for their cause here.
That Ukraine will reclaim all its land up to the 1991 borders during 2023 is indisputable and my money is on them having done it by this summer, as the spring offensive will have played out by then, the one now being resourced with Western armor.
It goes a bit up and down as it always does and thousands of Ukrainians will die before this is over, but then a nation will have been born that will become one of the EU’s major powerhouses and the Russian empire will have finally fallen.
There are no hidden layers here that we don’t see – the West will help Ukraine liberate its land and then Ukraine just has to be smart and not do a Finland and cross the border, then they will do just fine.
There will be no plot twist 😀
11:38 – Johan No.1
MRF,
We read the other day that there were +300,000 men in Ukraine, so my numbers are fairly accurate, 150,000 + 100-150,000?
I don’t remember where we got that from but then half are experienced units – who now run across the fields and the other half have a couple of months’ training from nothing. This because those with conscription in their background were sent directly to the front.
A couple of months of conscription against Ukraine’s combined arms warfare is an ocean apart.
The losses – we know that it is now the elite units and we have estimated the number of losses as many, including me, believe it is underestimated. Dmitri has posted conversations where 30% drop out due to illness and cold – they are not included in the statistics.
Then all the HIMARSed barracks are probably not included either.
I am quite sure that we have the illusion of how strong the Russians are because their battalions go to zero in their attacks. We have many examples of brigades and regiments that have been “wiped out.”
The unknown factor is how much the Russians mobilize but it took a fairly harsh mobilization to get 300,000 men from September onwards and then it has been quiet.
We know they sent the second battalion for the brigades, we know they sent the training battalion for the brigades, we know they sent this year’s conscripts, we know they pulled the VDV regiment back from Syria and Wagner’s from Africa.
We know they pulled air defense from Moscow until they started rebuilding that capacity again, they were not afraid of NATO but now they are afraid of Ukraine.
I understand that we have to keep sitting on opposite sides until Ukraine has thrown out the Russians but if Ukraine starts losing a lot of terrain here then there is naturally cause for concern. That is, not potato fields but large areas.
11:47 – Johan No.1
Got many reactions on the samurai sword so I guess I have to back down on that 😀
11:54 – Johan No.1
You paint the best you can and then it becomes what everyone takes away that Chinese and samurai swords don’t go together, clearly you should devote quite a bit of time to the details here.
12:01 – Johan No.1
Question to the thread, are there any intact army units that have not yet fought in Ukraine?
As far as I know, one of the last was the VDV regiment in Syria?
There are plenty of FSB, GRU, Omon, Rosgvardia and like Shoigu’s and Putin’s private armies but they are probably needed for crowd control and for the terror balance among big criminals?
What I wonder is if there is any offensive reserve like a pensioners’ army that has been held back and top-equipped during the past year but I don’t think so. I had the impression that the 3rd Army Corps was exactly that and that it turned out almost embarrassing.
12:04 – Johan No.1
I wonder if we will see Winter War 2.0 for real here when the Russians try to retake the terrain east of the Oskil River all the way down to Lyman.
There are large areas with excellent ranger terrain and if the newly mobilized are involved in this offensive it will just be columns or lines of them that they can rampage around with.
Even territorial units now have SOF units with night combat capability nowadays.
12:06 – Johan No.1
Absolutely not, he is a source you have to read with great skepticism but he has been right many times and he seems to stick to the truth about the Russian army’s incompetence.
You are thinking here that he is hyping Ukraine and out of the ashes comes an army of shining knights but so far he hasn’t done that.
He also gets to think freely about how Putin will die and live and thrive – this war’s great mystery actually.
12:17 – Johan No.1
Kreminna, I think, is good ranger terrain so they have infiltrated copious amounts in all forms that move over a fairly large area.
Unfortunately, you probably need the town of Kreminna to be able to move forward and then also the dominant terrain west of it and both forest belts. If you can hold everything you have a defensible corridor to push further through.
But otherwise, it is exactly like that, they focus on a well-fortified place where VDV is defending and if they don’t get through, they are stuck…
I have had a red line, when all of Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are at the active front and they are pushed backward.
I have now gotten the impression that they have one battalion per brigade at the active front and rotate so I don’t think we are there.
Then they have set up 3+3 brigades if I understand this correctly and at least the Azov brigade has armor.
I don’t think it is a sharp situation and I also don’t think the Russians can unleash the 500,000 men that would be needed right now to maybe have that effect.
12:18 – Johan No.1
But what do I know, as you say open sources and positive bias and a lot of guessing.
12:37 – Johan No.1
Don’t remember who usually posts about oil and there it is a bit more substance than a retweet but this graph from Bloomberg was insanely positive 👍 Then that their dirty oil is sold at a heavy discount as well.
USA, and who else?, must be laughing all the way to the bank here?
What an insane own goal.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1619983263803768834?s=20&t=A1QSrlZyk0d3gLyfV8W-EQ
12:48 – Johan No.1
We basically have the usual consensus but start at opposite ends 😀
Weapons from the West are absolutely decisive and that is why some put quite a lot of energy into funny names for Scholz, he was the gatekeeper.
If you look at Onyx, UA has captured +500 tanks so there is naturally stuff to take but Western armor saves crews and is an additional contribution – and not least the Ukrainian soldiers feel they have support behind them in a completely different way than with captured tanks.
We should probably give this offensive a bit more time, but absolutely, the Russians are now also attacking up in northern Luhansk when the weather would favor Ukraine’s offensive, and then it turns into mud again…
I have noted that we have largely moved away from the T72 and see a lot of T80 and T90, although fewer now; there is a lot of bias in this, but I think I see a shift away from many vehicles to fewer but better ones.
12:59 – Johan No.1
The entire naval infantry is in Ukraine, as far as I remember.
VDV consists of so many regiments that it’s hard to keep track, but I have the impression that the last regiment was the one in Syria.
Even the division that is supposed to protect against a coup in Moscow has gone down to almost zero in Ukraine.
There are so many Guards units that it’s hard to say, but the best are at least there and have suffered astronomical losses.
Spetsnaz is always hard to know about, but the fact that the 30 combat divers died on a hill outside Kharkiv suggests that they took heavy losses there as well; I guess they came from naval spetsnaz?
13:07 – MatsExtrude
+100
13:30 – Johan No.1
Animated graphics showing how Europe’s borders have changed over time, I found it interesting
https://twitter.com/fasc1nate/status/1620034196071763977?s=46&t=MLFSEcpZXR0f6xsBuhf_Kw
17:17 – Johan No.1
General SVR, whom I flag as a red flag source, claims that PMC are not included in the losses.
Unclear regarding DPR/LPR?
https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1619374809980497921?s=20&t=e-o6sWSV22X8Lv-2F3syYA
19:17 – Johan No.1
The source is a bit tricky, but The Moscow Times believes that no order has been issued today to prepare for another round of mobilization.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/30/will-putin-announce-another-round-of-mobilization-a80084
10:24 – Johan No.1
It will get chaotic when the Russians try to take the terrain on the eastern side of the Oskil River.
There is no natural defense that Ukraine can hold, and numbers make a difference even if they are mobilized. Why the Russians haven’t tried this earlier, and haven’t attacked towards Dnipro, is a mystery, but now they probably will.
Maybe they can hold Kupiansk on the eastern side and maintain the transport across. What I think we will see is deadly indirect fire grouped on the western side of the Oskil River reaching them in the flank. But the commander of northern Luhansk will have a tough time ahead.
The units brought forward for this offensive from the training camps, and the units according to Gregg that are plugging holes all over northern Luhansk, these are the resources for the spring offensive that are now being consumed.
Now everyone probably understands how many losses the Russian elite units, and the capable reserve they had left, are currently taking as all the videos have come out.
I thought there were 150,000 capable units left, and now they have probably burned through 1/3 since January 6. I count all successful indirect fire against bases, because as they bring forward the elite units, HIMARS now reaches them. Then when they advance to their UFA or assembly points, HIMARS and air/army aviation hit them. It’s not only when they run across the fields that they die.
We read the other day that Wagner is to be rotated out from Bakhmut and the army in – VDV and probably another army brigade.
All marine infantry seems to be fighting at Vuhledar now together with several elite units from the DPR.
What remains of the offensive reserve is not entirely clear, but I made an estimate that with 150,000 capable units left (including those who have returned from hospital stays) and 90,000 from Belarus (which was completely wrong, apparently more like 15,000) there would be 100-150,000 left from the September mobilization. Then I guessed a moderate January mobilization and that there would be a relatively well-trained and equipped offensive reserve of +500,000 men in the spring. That calculation excluded the newly mobilized who had to be sacrificed to hold the terrain during winter.
At first, there were no Belarusians.
Then the 150,000 capable units left are being lost now, if they continue like this we are heading towards 60% losses by the end of February.
Then the 100-150,000 mobilized that I guessed remained will soon be put into combat.
Of course, there is a trickle of newly mobilized all the time, but a bigger effort was needed to raise the numbers to 300,000 in September, so it is definitely less than that, probably well under 100,000 if I were to guess. We have not seen any videos at all of forced mobilization since the September mobilization, so I am of the opinion that they are not using coercive measures on a large scale the way they did then.
They probably will not deploy units from the FSB, GRU, other agencies, or private armies in attempts at land grabs; at most, they act as police or checkpoint battalions. These units are needed in the balance of terror in Russia, I think, and are not moved?
If we do not see a large-scale attempt at some kind of general mobilization very soon, there simply will be nothing left to oppose in the spring.
Then Wagner, DPR, and LPR are not counted in the daily losses, I think we have discussed that before? If Wagner has now lost +40,000, DPR had +20,000 losses already since spring and has probably had arterial bleeding since then in, among others, Kherson and LPR on top of that, then we have almost 100,000 more losses here?
Wagner seems to be approaching unserviceable, I actually don’t know how the 1st and 2nd Army Corps are staffed?
VDV is taking existential hits here and for the marine infantry it is even worse.
Apparently Spetsnaz at Vuhledar as well, so we know they have fought in Kreminna and Vuhledar, you can probably guess in Soledar and Bakhmut too.
I am still completely shocked that the army had no qualms about sacrificing the last capable units in this Ardennes offensive. We have all seen the videos with infantry across fields and air barrages, e.g. below (already posted in the thread but the air barrages are completely devastating). Many of those videos are from Vuhledar and it is marine infantry and DPR’s best running into the tungsten rain.
I could understand newly mobilized to wear down Ukraine’s defense, that felt very Russian, but here they are extinguishing the last offensive capability, and the ability to defend the country Russia, with enormously poorly planned attacks and absolutely sky-high losses.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1619318373409783808?s=46&t=PM0UVbmzOimbQygVOiVL6g
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1619614669832093697?s=20&t=wj62YfSn-K8L4QXdbh7msg
The Russians’ problem is that they are losing the last trained units, VDV, marine infantry, Spetsnaz, and their best Guards.
Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are now all of the same standard as these (were considered) and even territorial is starting to look exciting – while the Russians’ elite is heading towards zero, Ukraine has +350,000 battle-hardened and well-trained maneuver brigades and a forest of battalion-sized units.
A move that I believe the West absolutely can play, even though it is on the edge, is to show that Belarus can come into the fold, not the EU but trade agreements and visas, if they take hold of their revolution, which has already started. It will be bloody but the army is probably not eager to be forced to fight in Ukraine and the people nearly managed to rise before Russia apparently assisted with violent capital. Didn’t know that but have understood it now.
That would force Russia to turn against Belarus and it would ease things for Ukraine.
Then Ukrainian volunteers can always help with the revolution just as Belarusian volunteers have helped Ukraine?
It is clear that the people of Belarus are not happy with the current situation and if they can “straighten out” the eastern border with Russia, much would be gained.
They would probably have to look a long time for a better chance at freedom than today.