2024-03-07 -

11:44 – Johan No.1

”Russia will die when the Ukrainian sun rises” – Dudayev. For those of you who have read his statements before, you know that he has been surprisingly close to the truth in most things.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kn3nv5yaqs2d

You can see in the daily losses that the ammunition has returned and now also HIMARS apparently. Russia lost the war in the first days after the war started (or even before the war started if you will) – down in the south they were lucky. It’s just like WWII where everyone says Germany was unlucky at Stalingrad or if Rommel had only done things differently with the Afrika Korps. They would never have gotten as far as they did and had incredible luck with a risk-taking leader.

Someone in the thread usually writes that the war is over but it’s only over when the Russians have had enough and go home. We are probably well on our way there because elite units like marine infantry or prioritized armored brigades now have T54-55 or unmodified T62s they use offensively. The tanks are the first crack in the wall and it’s clear. Someone in the thread also usually writes that they are very short on armor – maybe he is right?

I calculated the artillery a few months ago and if losses were at high levels, 50 per day, then what they have in depots would be gone by this summer. I think we also assumed that 30% was unusable.

This timeline with satellite in Tomsk that Erik14 posted is interesting because it’s tube artillery and everything has disappeared, every piece. One could have guessed that the 30% that don’t work were left behind but in the case of towed artillery maybe there isn’t that much that doesn’t work and they even operate without aiming devices?
https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1765369396631937223?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The point I wanted to make with my off-topic domestic political post yesterday about the residents in the small town I live in was the following – first, many who read may feel that the world conscience is good to pay taxes for and that paying higher taxes to save the environment is a must so that the residents in my small community simply have to accept that it is for a good cause and take the hit.

In the USA, these residents have over time been quite easy to push in a certain direction because the tone-deafness has been total from those who have driven opinion and decided on taxes. You feel that these residents are under control because everything is for a noble purpose and that original sin is something they must be reminded of daily.
Now these residents first voted for Trump and then a bunch of congressmen who effectively block quite a lot of what the USA should do. If Putin wants them to block something else, they will do it.

I find this very interesting, it’s HMF straight up but the police do not intervene in the UK. The law is obviously subjective and someone was arrested for standing beside a demonstration waving an English flag a few weeks ago, with what legal basis is unclear to me. This kind of thing is on a collision course with the code of conduct we have learned and loosens up the rule of law. Warning for very serious HMF!
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1764756823897158023?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

These voices exist in Sweden too, my Twitter feed is flooded with them (Russian bots), and radicalizing tax-abused citizens who are starting to get tired of original sin is very easy. Not many who emptied their savings account last winter to pay the electricity bill are toasting with their partner saying “yes we saved the climate and we are winners” right!

I know families who burned their entire vacation fund and others who in panic moved into small rented two-room apartments with district heating with their 2-3 children just to get by.

Feeling that you have control over these hard-working citizens and then constantly putting them down greatly increases the risk that over time they will vote for Sweden’s equivalent of the orange man and a bunch of rebellious parliament members and then Sweden will lock up.

It’s just like with diplomacy – you maintain a balance and contact with other countries so that in times of crisis there is support.

Run a policy for the majority population and the core mission and the risk of the orange man, Putin, or the 1930s in Sweden is smaller, is my strong opinion on the matter which I have tried to describe in words as best I can for a few days. Then I’m not completely lost, I understand that the difference between utopia and what will happen is vast 😀

Of course UA will go on a mech offensive this year, we have written that for a long time, and they seem to have a strategic offensive reserve of 10-11 mixed brigades. So it’s a reserve that can be deployed anywhere.

What we should see now since the ammunition has returned to fighting units is front-line pre-attack, deep strikes but then also the new long-range strikes in nearby oblasts returning.

What has not yet been discussed is who has sent ammunition, the “Czech ammunition” is still a few weeks away – so who has opened the emergency stockpiles wide open 😀

Now the source Gregg, who is sometimes completely credible and sometimes goes off a bit, believes that UA now fires as many shells as RU.
Since UA takes out about fifty artillery pieces for RU daily, they will in a few months have pushed the Russian artillery into the mud – again.

UA should definitely go after the bases and airfields near the border with Ukraine that have previously been protected as soon as ATACMS arrive.

They will increase the intensity against the railway network.

If they just promise ammunition, it will all happen at once at an increasing pace until their offensive starts.
And it will be an offensive.

RU has recently emptied Belarus and they have withdrawn units from northern Luhansk and moved them to Bakhmut and elsewhere.

This reasonably means that the strategic reserves are gone and that during March they will fight with what they have on various fronts.

The units at the Dnipro front are in poor condition, rebel units around Avdiivka are in poor condition, at the southern front it’s the same old brigades. At Bakhmut it’s a mixed bag with a lot of new and in northern Luhansk there is probably some new.

What will precede the mech fall is a few days where hundreds of drones buzz around a front section a few kilometers wide and fly into every bunker opening, trench opening, and other openings to spaces where the Russians are hiding. We already know that RU cannot shoot down these drones and all these spaces have one entrance and then they have reinforced roofs.
Since it is a closed space, the explosive effect is enormous and then you can work your way forward.

We have already seen videos where they have found special forces vehicles in barns and cut them down one by one.

These are simply new times and Ukraine is preparing for the next offensive; they have hundreds of thousands of drones completed and the infrastructure to effectively deploy them into a bunker opening in the near future.

The annual production figure for BMP-3s in Russia is 300 units, roughly a week’s losses?
https://x.com/andreibtvt/status/1765406671017295974?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I would argue that France has made a hard course change. They tried to get the EU to send troops to Ukraine, which did not work, and now they have a security agreement with Moldova as the first country.
https://x.com/klart_skepp/status/1765365776112922911?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

They have also sent their version of JDAMS, a total of 600 units to be sent, and have arranged mounts on Ukrainian aircraft to carry them.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765523629385642176?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

It’s almost as if we are waiting for more from France here; here we have a country that has realized where everything is headed and has managed to sort out its internal politics in time.

Let’s see what the defector’s counter-move will be – last time he said that no one in Europe will send soldiers to Ukraine, no one. Who is he to speak for other countries?

At Bakhmut, FSB special forces have fallen. This is part of the 400,000 (previously including Wagner) intended for internal repression of citizens in Russia. They are not supposed to fall in Ukraine.
They have thus started to take from the reserve I never thought they would sacrifice in Ukraine – the units that are supposed to protect the country Russia if the citizens get any ideas.
That’s good, very good.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1765503134065934429?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The thread has chosen to believe that Ukraine has been in Sudan for quite a few months now, and it now seems official; they apparently received weapons in exchange. Unlike Russia, they support the legitimate government and are thus on the right side of history, again. Presumably, after the war is won, they will help West Africa and Central Africa to be free from Wagner.
https://x.com/archer83able/status/1765323495880187985?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

It is still early for a Ukrainian offensive, but you have probably noticed that the 800,000 shells will start arriving in a few weeks – in good time for an offensive. The Koreans’ 300,000 were enough for the spring offensive, so it will be a lot of bang for the buck.

The elite air force is probably the critical line, we’ll see…

-positive – positive now that the ammunition has reached the units, whoever sent it. Quite clear that March 2024 will be one of the biggest loss months ever for the Russians.

And then comes April…

12:48 – MatsExtrude

👍

Yes, now that it seems they have actually received ammunition, one can start hoping for a counteroffensive in the spring.

This year it might be in April. It probably depends on whether the F-16s have arrived and what the mud conditions are like. But it would probably fit well. After the election, I think the Russians will completely lose momentum (they are probably already starting to deflate even though they slowly take ground here and there). I don’t want to give them too much time to dig in.

Last year I believed more in May, mainly because many Ukrainians needed training on all the new equipment they would receive from the West (too bad not everything was delivered).

Most armor has survived so far; there are enough crews who have now also gained a lot of experience.

Mines will still be a problem; hopefully Ukraine has a strategy for that and has received what is needed. Or else it will be the artillery and drones that decide everything.

13:03 – Johan No.1

I also believe that the air force is the critical line.

The mud season surely plays a role even though Russia has attacked through all seasons for two years now.

Last year we figured out that one could comfortably start around mid-April with some local differences within the country and that Zelensky had planned an earlier offensive but the materiel did not arrive in time.

13:39 – Johan No.1

Hällefors has the lowest median income in Sweden, there it is 19,000 SEK after tax – feels difficult to get by on that in a single-person household with rent or mortgage today. Everything is always relative to expenses, I think, and it becomes a bit misleading sometimes when the media portrays that we have X times higher incomes when the expenses are even higher.

After smartphones, practically the whole world has access to what we have, Netflix, social media, and other information.
Already in 2007, Angola had a system for internet coverage in all major cities for smartphones and portable internet.

We in Sweden have a terrible climate most of the year, so we have had to compensate for that with housing, but internationally I have discovered that Swedes often live quite modestly in terms of space. I thought it probably used to be due to heating costs so houses became 100 sqm. In Portugal, you can buy a 500 sqm palace outside a major city for 4 million SEK.

Then Swedes work quite long days; in the UK it was 7.3 hours, and in many countries people retire long before we do.

Our high standard of living is somewhat of a myth I discovered when I started working around the world 😀

Aid organizations are not so bad – they get to run their projects and if citizens feel it is a good initiative, they donate a lot of money. When the National Audit Office investigated SIDA, they could not determine how the funds were used in 90% of the projects.
One could, for example, run it through aid organizations instead so it became voluntary, not forced?
Then there are unfortunately many examples of fraud within aid organizations as well.

Then I believe that countries are best stimulated through trade rather than aid. I have myself helped build a large number of ports in Africa which increased trade. Since I moved there, I have always had a monthly commitment of X thousand SEK that went directly to those in need and then it became adoption. Then I know that the funds went directly to what they were intended for – and above all it was voluntary. I won’t deny that the salary was a motivation.

That does not mean I think a state should be allowed to set humanitarian and environmental goals that they arbitrarily take from citizens’ taxes whether they want it or not.

Then there are initiatives that cannot be argued against – Doctors Without Borders and UNHCR and quota refugees. There the concept is so obviously good, and all Western countries participate and pay. Nothing is perfect and there were scandals with trafficking in SOS Children’s Villages unfortunately, but it is also a commendable concept.

There are also lots of volunteer initiatives for those who want to contribute; you can go down to the place, and there are ways to give from your own funds if you wish directly on site as well. If you are passionate about these issues, you can do like me and go down and try to make a difference?

One thing I discovered after living long enough was that environmental alarms replaced each other and that it was always “ten years until the earth ends.” For those who bother to google, something definitive was probably said in 2010. Through these alarmist (and incorrect) predictions, we have gone ahead with a lot that has cost much and delivered nothing.

It wasn’t long ago that everyone was supposed to have diesel cars, but now they are not allowed – the car manufacturers’ product lines have probably cost quite a bit.

I think I see the wind power industry collapsing with more and more bankruptcies, and most recently I saw a proposal that the scrapping of wind turbines would then be at the landowner’s expense if the company went bankrupt – there are probably one or two landowners who will regret being too pro-renewable energy when they end up with millions in scrapping costs…

I saw a note that in Los Angeles in the 1930s it was so hot that the asphalt melted, and then the war winters during WW2 were among the colder ones.

There are lots of good things that have been done where the world has come together on various issues, but you must not hijack them with the purpose of fleecing citizens of their money – that is unethical and fraudulent.

So I do not think we should stop giving aid and turn inward, I think we should stop using good intentions to steal money from citizens because citizens can get tired of that. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, as they say.

The greatest threat to peace in Sweden in the short and long term is probably indisputably Russia, really. Then, of course, lawlessness within the country can run wild, but I don’t think it will become unmanageable.

I have the impression that warming in the long run would give a better climate for Sweden so our agriculture can increase. Basically, that is good for us as a country if you think about what would be good for Sweden?

13:51 – Johan No.1

I forgot the UN missions here, in a whole bunch of countries in Africa they have been indispensable, as well as the various programs for vaccines, food, and different support. When countries are in stages of war or civil war, they are lifelines.

15:13 – Johan No.1

Exactly Tento, that’s what I meant by “There are lots of good things that have been done where the world has come together on various issues.”

I grew up with the ozone issue, freon too, and “acid rain” where the spruces lost their needles.

We have failed with the Baltic Sea and I remember summers in the archipelago, 15m visibility underwater, cod, perch, sculpin in the nets early in the morning. Today there is no fish and algal blooms…

Then we have gotten back the bear population, the wolf population, and a lot more.

15:18 – Johan No.1

Fishing – excuse me if I am being sarcastic, not my opinion at all, but if a Bronze Age person discovered that there are no wild boars and cows, his heart would have broken, and if a medieval person understood that Europe is no longer dense forest after all the boat building, he would have existential anxiety.

Fishing will become just like with cows and pigs in the future, fish farms or aquafarms maybe they call it nicely since all fish for consumption is farmed.

Then they probably won’t allow much commercial fishing, and in 10 years we will have fish-rich waters again or something (kind of). I am convinced that will come.

I perceive this CO2 thing the opposite of what I read in newspapers, it has gone down constantly over a couple of hundred million years and we are approaching the limit where plant life will decline because of it?