2024-03-11 -

12:26 – Johan No.1

Sons of freedom, or the world’s best infantry as someone in the thread usually writes.
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1766557265387987285?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

If you remember, there was someone in the thread who believed that Krunky would be subjected to a run-over attempt, and if you look at the unit maps, there are 4 VDV units and 25th Spetznaz around Krunky, so Russia has certainly always tried with the best they have.

We also have rumors that the Kraken is located near Krunky – there were some at the beginning who thought Kraken was a preschool class when they fought up in Kharkiv, but they are supposed to be a very capable unit from what I have managed to read.
That the Russians have not succeeded in breaking this bridgehead is sensational, on par with history’s greatest defensive battles. It is my conviction that Ukraine has utilized its range of capabilities excellently here, but surviving hundreds of FAB bombs is nothing less than spectacular. We often hear the Russians themselves say that they are bad at hitting with these, which perhaps helps the defense.

This is Davidiv Brid all over again, they landed in an unexpected place and Russia has to advance on two roads to reach them and are then exposed to drones, artillery, AHKP, and CAS, so they suffer enormous losses.
Apparently, there is also a tank on the right side in higher terrain shooting accurately – 4 km long-range sharpshooters with shields.

The fact that the 810th Marine Infantry attacked with unmodified T62s says a lot about the condition of Russia at the Dnepr because they are a prioritized unit.
They were supposed to have 500 tanks there last summer and have probably taken quite a few losses. I recall reading that the Dnepr front was deprioritized in heavy vehicles, so they received older ones, there were about 1500 IFVs or thereabouts as well?

After reading the CNN article, which is internally reviewed before publication giving it some credibility, I start to wonder if there is truth behind the rumor we heard when Kherson fell.

Now everyone has read the article, but the US was afraid of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and acted preventively so as not to make Russia too nervous and trigger-happy..
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html

It was rumored that Zelensky allowed Russia to evacuate VDV in exchange for sparing the city of Kherson. Personally, I was waiting for Operation Badanka – 40,000 cheerful Russians, but I thought it was a bit of a Russian national sport to slip out of encirclements, not something you win wars with but they are good at it.

I extrapolate further here that it was pressure from the US that stopped Ukraine from this.

We know that Zalizhny was not allowed to push forward with his offensive down along the left bank of the Dnepr – that is stated and factual.

Then IT WAS a bit strange towards the end when the VDV slipped out entirely and Operation Badanka never happened on the scale we expected. After all, 40,000 were supposed to be evacuated across the Dnepr, and that is not done in a snap. I remember someone in the thread discussing that UA would release air and army aviation over the ferries.

Things like this make me really sad, imagine if UA could have shown the entire VDV captured already in 2022, then damn, the war would have been over. Then it must have been terrible for the Ukrainian command and Zelensky to constantly get these prohibitions as soon as things started going well for them, terrible…

It is indisputable fact that UA received orders (yellow card) from the West to stop invading Russia in Belgorod. The total Christmas joy I felt when they swept away customs officers from the FSB turned into surprise when the West came out and said stop and UA shut down the whole project.

Someone in the thread (not me) wrote something like this: “Russia has a doctrine to use tactical nuclear weapons if invaded, so it’s quite understandable that UA withdrew”.
One point to make is that occasionally someone drops a masked grain of truth in the thread, it has happened several times.

The question is whether the retreat at Izyum was also the same damned backdoor release. I was sitting looking at the maps and saw how UA crossed the Siversky Donets at Sviatlohirsk a good bit east of Oskil and that there was only one retreat route eastward from Oskil that went through forest when they managed to cut off the town of Oskil. That would have been all ambush motherships and I anticipated with joy great death. And then we found out that they had managed to retreat again but left all vehicles with technical faults – now in hindsight I guess the same as at Kherson because it was damn negligence not to infiltrate lots of SOF so they stopped the retreating Russians on a narrow forest road.

It was a true joy to read the thread yesterday dissecting the CNN article about nuclear weapons. Sad that the experts and advisors in the West cannot get away from cornu.

To summarize, Putin’s nuclear bluff has worked beyond expectations but now today in 2024 that card has already been played.

Then it is so that if Putin launches tactical nuclear weapons, the line is crossed and even the elite in Russia want to continue living their lives in copious luxury, I am quite convinced of that. Then I believe the chain is already broken to firing and that during the entire Cold War no nuclear weapons were fired despite orders because some colonel sobered up.

At the risk of sounding unmanly (you’re not allowed to write ‘unmanly’ anymore), yesterday I was moved by how clear-sighted the thread is when it really matters. There were a dozen commentators on nuclear weapons and the pope that the West’s advisors should have heard before their catastrophic policies were pushed through.

Putin got a full jackpot on the nuclear bluff – everything was rigged in his favor, if he wins everything is good and if he loses it’s a consolation prize.

But what has changed?

I believe the fact that Patriot has been able to shoot down nuclear carriers was a biggie, we reasoned about it when it happened – the West is no longer terrified of Russian nuclear weapons.

If you remember, the war is a big whack-a-mole where you try to knock down some and then get your own up to a combo that wins the war.

It is now my opinion that if UA gets advanced aircraft and enough heavy vehicles, they have the war-winning combo and that advanced aircraft is the critical line. When it arrives, it is the last building block in the concept that will win this war.

Everything else they have assumed that the materiel continues to come and the soldiers continue to fight.

Note to PM – for God’s sake send Gripen now, they will make a difference on the battlefield, it’s Monday and we hear nothing which is worrying.

Now that the nuclear card has been exposed and Putin’s embarrassing ceasefire attempt laughed at, there is some risk that the China card will be dangled.
We hope that the West’s experts and advisors are properly calibrated on this issue because China has shown great aversion to this war and the card we have seen was that they asked Iran to sit down and keep quiet. Which Iran has not done, by the way.
Then just look at where China is geographically, they could attack India or Russia and all Western-friendly countries have water in between (except South Korea) and China’s navy is hopeless against the US and Western navies.
That card is also a bluff and should be treated as such by the West – if Russia is given its way here by a wavering West, we will drag ourselves into the great geopolitical conflict of our time.

”the whole West’s SOF” someone has written since the start of the war 😀
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1766912815481417781?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Russia has completely devastated the occupied areas in Ukraine – every small town has torture centers with more victims than there are, and they have to steal from each other to maintain their relevance. There are mass graves everywhere and five-year-old children are desecrated, tortured, and murdered. Prisoners are castrated and raped in the worst ways, and thousands have certainly died in captivity. There are still about 28,000 prisoners on paper, right?
Child trafficking has been in the hundreds of thousands, between 200,000 – 700,000 depending on which sources you believe.

Now that Russia has created its African corps, a reasonable assumption is that the same devastating death cult will emerge in Africa, so it is encouraging to see that I was completely wrong about the West here and that at least France is tackling the problem together with Ukraine. Hopefully, there are more participants in some black ops operations all aimed at eradicating the Russian African corps.

What I have tried to highlight is that the African corps (or Wagner as we usually call it) is present in a large number of countries in Africa, and these are among the world’s most fragile countries. Recently, we learned that they are running a massive influence operation in Africa and naturally they pit groups against each other.
This will thus lead to civil wars and wars between countries that will trigger refugee flows, which is a weapon Russia will use against Europe.
They MUST be stopped and it feels good that the West is starting to address the problem now.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1766940427968516441?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The whole original sin discussion in the West has aimed to make Western leaders hesitant to intervene in Africa so that Russia and China would get a free pass, and I guessed, after seeing how they tiptoed around Ukraine, that the West would refrain, but glad I was wrong.
It is important to keep an eye on the ball because this influence operation includes the entire colonial aspect, and the usual pro-Russians in the West will push that narrative hard to prevent the West from intervening.

This epic ratio from Perpetua should balance out today’s 1:1 that someone posted in the thread.
https://x.com/verekerrichard1/status/1766415866562777257?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Armenia wants to join the EU, Georgia is a candidate country – I like that because they have not had it easy at all and these two countries could move closer to the West, but of course, it is a very long way to FULL membership, if it ever happens. I can imagine that Turkey is starting to feel encircled here and that they will switch the narrative from NATO expansion to EU expansion instead.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1766382305914786177?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

France places a large order for LV ammunition.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1766121464426619367?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

There are often discussions in the thread about standardizing NATO armaments so everyone uses Abrams or Leopard and that there are advantages to that.
I see it quite the opposite – the strength of the West is that there are weapons manufacturers in a large number of countries that have capable platforms or ammunition production, and that is why the West can scale up now.
Russia, with its “one factory one product” approach, has created bottlenecks they cannot overcome.
Yes, maybe some South Korean equipment will have to be bought for a while, but that bridges the gap until the fifth generation tank rolls out from KMW.

Also, there were VERY many who thought that too many different weapons platforms would be too much for Ukraine to handle (so nothing would be sent), but they have managed well with it. Good help from workshops all over Europe, and they manage to keep the vehicles alive as long as possible before they are sent for service. Ammunition also seems to have reached the units as it should when available.
When the 3rd Azov started retaking terrain south of Bakhmut, there was a film showing 10-12 destroyed hard vehicles and it was about 10-12 different models – this has worked.

Now, at least I am mostly curious about the Russian election and what will happen here.
I also think that the UA counteroffensive has started to increase in intensity and that the fronts have stabilized so UA is no longer retreating – a trend break.
Now we will probably go through the period of poor ground bearing capacity, and around mid-April the ground will bear again approximately, which is the next course change presumably, and we will see who starts first.