And so it has begun, May 22, 2026

Since it’s Friday, I thought I’d start with some pep I came up with myself the other day – And so it has begun, the great war of our time.

What do you think of it, could it catch on and become a movie quote so one can get royalties?

For a couple of months, we have been posting about Stepnohirsk and the history being made there right now.

It’s probably simpler than we think – when the division of corps was finalized, the corps commanders got fairly free rein and above all Sirsky could no longer micromanage at the platoon level.

That’s why there are offensives everywhere at the same time.

It also seems they are using their strategic offensive reserve, GUR, Rangers, and other wild capabilities to untie knots where needed; at Stepnohirsk it was GUR units clearing the city.

How does he know it has started, and why is Johan No.1 writing in English on this special day when he is in the Caribbean, shouldn’t it be Spanish or Creole?

We had a long discussion on johanno1.se which has been up before – in UA reporting, unlocalized battles were increasing so much that in total they surpassed the Russian ones at some point.

Some didn’t quite dare to believe it was a UA offensive, so I had to ask Sirsky to clarify to reach a conclusion.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4125167-ukrainian-offensive-actions-surpass-russian-attacks-for-first-time-syrskyi-says.html

At the same time as 205 could post a ratio of attacks favoring UA over 1, Sirsky confirmed that their attacks were more than the Russians’ – case closed and on to the next question.

Is this a Ukrainian spring offensive or not, media writes nothing about major offensives or Ukrainian offensives – is Johan No.1 wildly fantasizing as usual?

If we have the same yardstick as we had with the Russians, this is what the number of Russian attacks looked like when the media talked about a Russian offensive.

Since UA attacks have been up to 133, the answer is – yep, the Ukrainian spring offensive has started.

You no longer hear or read anything because UA has kept completely silent. They are running a full clam right now; they were this secret recently in some operation on the southern front. They have learned the hard way to keep quiet since we in Europe and the USA leaked everything we got to Putin.

https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-mission-to-liberate-russian-occupied-territory-in-ukraines-south

It is thus time to declare that this year’s offensive operations from the blue team have started and that the start was somewhere between May 8 – May 12, there was a ceasefire in the middle which Trump forced them into so Putin could have a quiet May 9 celebration as is proper. Historians will use the dates again this year just like in 2023.

But it’s better than 2023 when I saw a tweet from Defmon about Custer’s last stand after a whole night on cheap whisky and quickly declared the Ukrainian offensive start to be May 3-4. I’ve had to defend myself since then against a sea of lies even though the offensive did start around then, so saved by the bell.

This year it is supported by solid data and Defmon has stopped posting, statistics don’t lie and can’t be misunderstood if one happened to find a forgotten bottle of whisky.

By the way, I have started a year without alcohol which is going well so far, the step before that was to only buy a few beers because if I had more I drank more but now we are upping the stakes to just mineral water and it has worked surprisingly well as long as I have a snus to suck on.

Stepnohirsk and the Ukrainian miracle that RU probably hasn’t understood yet was last (again) in the post about the Azov push?

RU has thus deployed two entire VDV divisions in the area and is losing the town of Stepnohirsk. But it doesn’t end there, they are pressing directly south.

Here you have a slightly better analysis than mine 😀

Now you naturally read the previous post but RU VDV are the ones who are supposed to be task forces during RU defensive warfare but have already taken hits during RU offensive operations.

This is what it looks like according to Mohlin, Orihiv is the anchor eastward that holds.

And Project Owl over RU units, the whole gang at the top has thus retreated from Prymorske 10 km south and now lost Stepnohirsk. That was after they fought their way towards Prymorske – high probability that none of the regiments are in good shape including reconnaissance and Spetsnaz.

I have been wondering for quite a while why.

Why choose the same place where you bled out in 2023 because it was the best fortified area on all fronts.

RU has not fortified well when they are on their own offensive but I think I have figured out the logic behind this seemingly illogical action.

In defensive warfare, VDV hides deep and is a task force that makes life miserable for everyone, now UA got a bit lucky that they went first so they simply chose to attack where VDV was to decimate them – it’s probably that simple.

RU has different levels of units and VDV has long stood as task forces or been deployed where success is wanted, there are also a couple of TR and MRR that are okay besides Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, and special units like FSB, GRU, or some prioritized Rosgvardia.

But to get at two VDV divisions with some reconnaissance and Spetsnaz is big game.

To finally take Pokrovsk, they used up the 76th GAAD, 7,000 strong, and now these two VDV divisions are seriously on the decline.

Behind the southern front, there is not much more to take and UA has fire control over all access routes so further reserves cannot be brought in unless Putin manages to get a new ceasefire.

You can be sure that Krasnov will try already this summer.

2022 – 2023 we had constant discussions about RU losses and whether what was stated was KWIA.

It turned out to be true after a couple of years even though I was of the opinion that it was only killed in action – which is partly true because quite a lot does not get into this verifiable figure.

Winter 2023, for example, 30% of the patients in hospitals there were for frostbite injuries and how big losses drone warfare at depth causes cannot be determined. When Ukraine blows up a large GRAU arsenal, it’s reasonably hundreds dead – the war’s most dangerous job, Russian depot worker.

Glad we didn’t have to leave offensive statistics open for discussion – 205 has very nicely captured this with data and we could see the breaking point even though UA officials keep quiet.

Is it all GUR and an excitable corps commander?

No, Ukraine today has complete information superiority – they see every Russian and Russian commanders have delayed information transfer so they are always second to the ball.

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Summer 1940 in France, the chief of defense sat in his castle waiting for couriers so his staff heard about setbacks on the BBC before they had arrived by bicycle to the staff – he was fired for that, you couldn’t operate like that when the new black was Blitzkrieg.

His replacement was some ancient general who was in Syria and was flown home in a hurry. He had to take over immediately and since he was not updated on the situation, he stopped his predecessor’s order for a violent counteroffensive that had just started because he needed time to familiarize himself with the situation.

When the ancient general after a few days gave the order for his own massive counteroffensive, exactly the same battle plan as his predecessor’s which he had stopped by the way, the war was already over as the Germans were in Paris.

The French had more soldiers, more and better tanks, more and better aircraft, a Maginot Line, a British expeditionary force, the Belgian defense forces but above all their elan – the French were generally regarded as a formidable opponent.

They were simply outmaneuvered except for Charles de Gaulle and his armored division who fought where it was most needed.

Information is king and Ukraine comfortably has it in their back pocket.

Their digital battlefield, apparently called Delta but formerly “Uber for artillery,” is so good that various senior officers from the USA have in turn blissfully exclaimed that it is better than their own – having a kill-chain you can hit when needed makes you a winner. Now Russia has it too thanks to China solving the Gordian knot for them but it is not as good and Ukraine suppresses their indirect capabilities and information platforms in a constant whack-a-mole.

They fight with traditional mechanized forces because they have their own anti-drone umbrella, EW, and their own drone weapon; it is a highly mobile fight once they get going.

They can use artillery, JDAMS, ground attack, army aviation, and the drone weapon.

Drones today exist in all forms including autonomous AI drones which they have begun to launch from carriers (“motherships”) to get longer range on them.

So why is Stepnohirsk this war’s Little Big Horn?

Russian special forces are heavily decimated and there is not much left in depth behind the southern front and the Dnieper front apart from some BARS units which are probably more like regiments but now battalion strength since they have been merged.

“The Road of Death” – Ukraine now has total fire control over incoming roads from the east beyond Berdyansk/Mariupol.

Even vehicles just inside the Russian side near Taganrog have been seen burning by the roadside.

Yes, Putin used the May 9 ceasefire to bring forward supplies and reinforcements (damn Trump) but overall it makes no difference.

The area has been heavily pre-bombarded so that radar, air defense, and the Black Sea Fleet are as rare as a kingfisher in winter nowadays.

Ukraine can use its own air force from the Dnieper front and a bit eastward.

Their drone weapon has full fire control and sees everything +100km deep, some can maneuver as far as 150km.

Since Russian special forces are now depleted, there will sooner or later be a breach somewhere, you all read the post about the Azov thrust closely followed by Operation Rostov, right?

Then Putin has only one measure left – to try to rush in reinforcements, Crimea is cut off since the bridge is impassable and the ferries sunk so his units must band from Mariupol which gives him a Kuwait highway 2.0, there is no other end to that dance.

Ukraine can cross the Dnieper north of Khakovka since the river is like a small pleasant summer brook now and in addition, brush has grown in the area so they can move under cover – as soon as they are over, the CAA chief for the Dnieper must try to get units there, again up and banding on the highway with much death.

Hopefully the army commanders do as they are told by Gerasimov until it no longer works.

Then when the area falls, the swarm will head east instead with the same violent drone street race.

The spring offensive 2023 failed because the USA, Europe, and UA parliamentarians leaked the battle plans to Putin, not necessarily in that order.

The USA also stopped reasonable battle plans, demanded they attack a 10km deep minefield, must use units trained in Europe because we were the best and also fight according to NATO doctrine despite lacking air superiority.

Then in the autumn some elected officials in Europe could not hold back, “now that they have learned it hurts maybe they will agree to a ceasefire” – this was a hidden agenda among some who thought Ukraine should give up because Putin had said he wanted a ceasefire but Ukraine refused. Everyone wanted peace except the stubborn Ukrainians.

It took Ukraine three years to lick their wounds and prepare, and it was also a knife-edge fight with Trump trying to politically topple Zelensky throughout 2025.

The Kursk offensive also made the West completely mad so the pressure was probably hard on Zelensky to stop invading Russia.

The upside now in 2026 is that Ukraine –

– Mostly got angry and wanted to retaliate.

– Doesn’t tell anyone what they are planning.

– Doesn’t take orders from anyone when bribes like EU membership and other fun things are dangled in front of them.

We still tell Ukraine not to attack export terminals and oil – just so you know we have learned exactly nothing up to now summer 2026. Everyone should read Johan No.1, it should be mandatory must-read with a written test every week.

UA is also gathering forces up at the northern front under the pretext that Belarus will go to war with them – I don’t believe for a second that Belarus will do that, they are building defenses against Ukraine to be a (neutral) anchor in upcoming Russian moves against the Baltics.

Probably UA has more than one plan now and they gladly strike the flanks, maybe they have gotten enough of the Belarus defense forces on the good side?

We’ll see but in the south the pieces are now in position for checkmate at least and Russian milbloggers are beginning to understand that. There are two sides to that coin of course and some opposition has started to get some support but the milbloggers who want to win are starting to get anxiety and it shows.

Russian exercise leadership probably still has some time before the light goes on for them but the only solution they have to all problems is to increase the level of violence if the current level does not give the desired result. There could be a lot of Russian deaths down south when they try to “throw the Ukrainians back over the Dnieper” and “hold Crimea at all costs.” Maybe CAA commanders will make their own decisions in the end but with a bit of luck they will keep giving Ukraine very easy targets on dusty highways for too long.

And so it has begun – it is hard to describe the feeling.

We saw it in 2022 at Kherson with VDV and the West cheated it away for Ukraine because Zalizhny was not allowed to attack down along the left bank of the Dnieper but instead had to run straight into the defense on the right side after Putin pulled back his VDV.

When HIMARS and American intelligence gathering started hitting knocked-out corps staffs right at their major briefings, even though they kept moving, there was no more HIMARS ammunition and the US stopped providing intelligence from the center in Germany or Poland, forgot what it was called.

All long-range weapons came with geographical restrictions – absolutely nothing over into Russia and the US would approve every target and leaked like a sieve to Putin.

For a long time, the Russians had 12-15 large bases right on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine where vehicles and supplies were neatly lined up – Ukraine was not allowed to attack them.

45 Iskander platforms stood in a row on the Russian side along with airbases for terror bombings against Ukrainian civilians – protected and absolutely no, Ukraine was absolutely not allowed to attack them.

This was at the time when long-range weapons came from the West but when Ukraine in the winter of 2023 attacked into Kursk and tried to follow the rules – only Russian and Belarusian volunteers then the West quickly changed the rules – that was not allowed either.

Moscow was taken down only because the Ukrainian communications officer happened to see it on American radar images in the communications center, realized what it was and quickly said “I’m going out for a cigarette.” An eager WhatsApp chat later, Moscow’s fate was sealed but he had to leave and the US became more cautious after that.

The spring offensive 2023 was shamelessly acted by us and the Kursk offensive would have gone better but the pressure was probably hard on Zelensky to restrain himself when the US and Europe realized that Putin had left the entire northern border undefended.

Wagner’s revolution 2023 also failed – it was as if the entire West, as soon as things went a bit too well for Ukraine, rushed in and ruined it to preserve world peace and make everything better.

This year we will see what was already described in 2022 – 2023 because the author severely underestimated the West’s willingness to betray to preserve peace in our time. Since Ukraine is doing the right thing and no longer needs us for critical weapons, there will be many occasions to take a sip of fine whisky and put in the victory snus this year.

Will the Azov thrust end?

Who knows, has Russia managed to open a conflict front in the Baltics probably not but that offensive will expose the entire southern area since Russia has zero in Rostov, Taganrog and Krasnodar, we know that.

The LPR and DPR units are extremely tired of this now, they already have a deal with Budanov that if they switch sides when the question arises, the punishment will be mitigated.

Will Putin survive politically if he carelessly loses Crimea – who knows, and above all what will come instead?

Yes, Russia can probably draw a new defensive line west-south of Donetsk, fortify Taganrog and send units down to Krasnodar but the same applies there – they have to move on roads or by train and the tracks are few. It will be bloody for Ukraine, they expect that.

The units also have to be taken from somewhere so other fronts will become weaker and so on in a puzzle that eventually cannot be solved when too many pieces are missing.

Russia is now losing 3.5 times more soldiers than Ukraine which they do not have the numbers for at all, not even “quantity is a quality in itself” which Russia thought in 2022-2023 would finally decide in Putin’s favor.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-commander-in-chief-reveals-casualty-1779213677.html

Yes, there are 400,000 in Russian letter agencies, special forces, Rosgvardia and private armies but they will not be sacrificed on the Ukrainian altar as they are the airbags for the rulers and needed for internal balance and power struggle.

If UA kicks away the southern front and runs over Crimea it will quickly become unsustainable and if you go by their movements up at the northern front this is just part of this year’s wish list Budanov is fiddling with.

-Positive-Positive is not a fair word, teary-eyed with a snus and happy, roughly like when you got your first Star Wars figures at twelve years old is probably more how this feels.

This does not make Europe kings at all and the next post will be post-Aurora and then what we can do to get ahead of a Russian escalation in the Baltics if UA does not manage to topple Russia first – which we hope they will do but if you want peace you prepare for war, and for the new war, right.

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