We have confirmed through reliable sources what we have long suspected – since RU has been fighting offensively all the time, they have not built fortifications in newly conquered areas. At most, they improve UA’s old fortifications, but those are then facing the wrong way. They have also not mined again as in the Surovikin line.
The old line is naturally further back in depth but is only a defensive line if units are stationed there – otherwise, it is just ditches you step over and mines you kick away.
Sitting and looking at Stepnohirsk – it is probably much more serious than RU yet understands.
RU previously conducted an offensive towards Zaporizha that probably reached Primorske, they had water on the flank and then widened eastward quite a bit, you might remember my screams?
RU brought capabilities to the area for continued advance – one of the attack vectors in their spring offensive that received offensive units.
At some point, UA took the initiative, their units in the area are competent but fewer in number than RU. I guess some “volunteer units” number in the hundreds, for example?
RU is at the forefront with those who are supposed to be rapid reaction forces for the area if they go on the defense – VDV and reconnaissance. Two VDV divisions, a total of one reconnaissance regiment + 22nd Spetznaz brigade.
The Russian bastards are retreating right now.
104th AAD and 7th MAAD are fighting almost up to Stepnohirsk except for two regiments, and reconnaissance is holding back a battalion.
The only reserve beyond that is 7 BARS battalions at Tokmak – then it’s empty down to Crimea.
By the way, I have probably underestimated BARS, they now seem merged from several and are more regiments than battalions – I must admit I have a bit poor knowledge of them and they are probably a bit better than I let on.
The Dnepr front has a VDV regiment as a rapid reaction force + a Spetznaz company.
Crimea is basically undefended as before, maybe 10,000 – 15,000 strong.
Further east along the southern front there are basically no rapid reaction forces except a reconnaissance brigade and then a Spetznaz company further south.
Yes, RU can move units from other fronts but the last railway ferry over Kerch is sunk, the bridge is not passable and the east-west roads behind the southern front lie comfortably within UA’s drone umbrella.
The only way to bring in reinforcements is via railway or access roads and they fall under the strategic drone weapon so it does not affect front-near FPV capabilities. There are really no better targets than a long snake of hard and soft vehicles on a country road when you have drones, artillery, strike aircraft, JDAMS and AHKP easily reachable within your “uber for artillery”. Missing to detect them today is incredible – Ukraine has its own satellites, gets information from Europe and constant drone surveillance with IR.
They will see when preparations are made elsewhere, if nothing else ATESH tells them, and then they wait for the right moment when they have comfortably gotten inside the drone screen and strike.
Movement by railway is almost an even more attractive target.
It is no longer 2022-2023, this year Ukraine can dominate all access roads and railway tracks behind the southern front where the bottleneck is gone at Berdyansk.
RU has prioritized the Donetsk front and the focus now is Kramatorsk/Sloviansk – the southern front/Dnepr front evidently has to manage with sparser staffing.
Only opportunities really – between Kinburn Spit and Crimea UA can conduct amphibious combat where they target staffs and rear capabilities that wanted a bit of sea view.
Raids can be made against Crimea.
They will definitely cross the Dnepr – there are several new marine brigades now in the area. Old territorial units that have gained this status through experience.
At Stepnohirsk the best RU has in the area is already retreating, a few miles already and they do not have full control over the locality Stepnohirsk at all.
This year’s protective hunt has only just begun.
The Dnepr between Khakovka and Zaporizha today is a forest with a small stream (slightly exaggerated) in the middle that you can quite easily lay small pontoons over. I thought RU would exploit that but now it is UA’s turn. RU has no defense to speak of between Enerhodar and down to Khakovka – a good area to transfer large amounts of mobile units as they basically step over the Dnepr there with a little swan dive.
If they decide to pool something from the strategic offensive reserve with some drone capability, it quickly turns critically red for RU in the area.
Crimea itself will probably be the least problem as the peninsula is impossible to defend – Lex A Few Hundred Years.
The amount of materiel down in Crimea is staggering – a lot is in need of repair and cannot be moved out and RU has previously shown great willingness to abandon heavy materiel when it is time for the Russian version of a retreat – wild flight.
That is why I am starting to wonder if the USA will step in to secure eternal peace in Crimea that “no one can hold anyway” by occupying the peninsula for Russia. We have not seen it yet but there is definitely a plan for it – but only if they can do it before UA is at the front door.
This Ukrainian operation goes under the name Azov thrust – I think it was Fram i Natten who had the honor of coining the term.
This should have come already in 2022 but then Putin threatened with nuclear weapons if his VDV that was on the wrong side of the Dnepr west of the city of Kherson was affected, so the USA stopped UA to save the world.
At the time we guessed something like that since Operation Badanka did not turn out as fun as someone promised anyone, and it turned out to be true. Again, we had to listen to the chatter from all the pros who knew it was never Ukraine’s plan and that they could never carry it out – until we got confirmation.
In 2023 when UA’s spring offensive hit a wall, the marines attacked along the southern front but did not advance as RU threw everything they had against every breakthrough until it stopped. They had quietly been able to bring forward units because the USA, Europe and Ukrainian parliamentarians leaked the battle plan where the USA was perhaps worst as they also demanded everything go through them.
What was not highlighted enough was that the access roads the rapid reaction forces used then were absolutely littered with destroyed vehicles long before they reached the combat area already in 2023.
You can probably guess how it will go this year and that RU does not have the numbers of graspable rapid reaction forces at all this time.
However, they have to try – it is according to doctrine and orders.
The units along the Dnepr west of Zaporizha are a rather interesting mosaic of extremely capable units, many of which are probably smaller. Each one is a specialized unit and there is quite a lot of drone capability in the area.
Something that probably works even better today in 2026 than when we described “The Great Campaign Plan” early 2023 is crossing the Dnieper with a company-battalion and going on defense in dominant terrain under own air defense and drone umbrella in a relatively undefended area.
Or I take that back, when Ukraine started grinding on Kherson in 2022 they did exactly that at Davydiv Brid if you remember, so I can’t take all the credit for the upcoming smashing victory.
Say, for example, that Ukraine crosses with a company and occupies the small “peninsula” at Babyne, see below.
Then they dig in and the UA official announces loudly that they have now crossed the Dnieper and Zelensky awards some brigade commander a medal with the justification that now they are winning the war.
Within a day, the commanders of the 18th and 59th CAA have received orders from Putin himself to retake the area “and throw the Ukraine bastards back over the Dnieper pronto or there will be court martial”.
They will try with FAB which Ukraine is just waiting for – some shot down aircraft.
All artillery or drone capability they try to move forward within range is being awaited by Ukraine.
Whatever task force they now choose must get on and convoy on the highway 50 km to reach the combat area – which Ukraine is rooting for, and waiting for.
Voila – a week later three Russian regiments are smoking scrap heaps on the roads towards Babyne.
This rehearsal trick can surely be repeated a couple of times, Kinburn Spit is another fun place.
Then the first attempt to move the front will probably be to clear all terrain west of the Konka river which is a natural obstacle.
At some point they will be over the Dnieper.
If RU chooses to do nothing at all, they will be over the Dnieper even faster – I guess that’s called chess?
The question is whether sea drones are already today starting to move with air defense missiles at depth so that Russian air force will be completely denied access, and the drone cover is so extensive that MLRS are mostly targets now.
Iskander platforms or ships with Kalibr are probably priority targets and Ukraine has already conducted a fairly ambitious pre-strike in the Crimea area/behind the southern front so the cleanup is already in full swing.
The second the CAA commander starts feeling that the land bridge down to Crimea is in danger, the entire Dnieper front will release in a gigantic locust swarm down towards Crimea or just eastwards towards Mariupol.
After that, Ukraine can let go of Crimea by just placing a defense at the land bridge and Voila No.2 – the entire southern front now has an acute flank threat.
If they have enough to put a drone cover over the Russian side and bring forward no more than three maneuver brigades, it has probably tipped to the blue team in that fight – this absolutely exists in the tangible strategic offensive reserve already, it’s just a matter of prioritization.
If you also want to see the Azov strike this year – the probability of that increases exponentially if you become a paying subscriber on Substack and the more who subscribe, the greater the probability.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-07
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian forces downed 92 of 102 🇷🇺Russian drones”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mlaiiamguk2y
** Ukrainian drones reportedly strike Russian military logistics facility in Moscow Oblast
Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a military logistics facility in Naro-Fominsk, Moscow Oblast, overnight on May 7, social media channels reported.
The Nara production and logistics complex, a large-scale logistics facility for the Russian army, was struck by Ukrainian drones, independent Telegram outlet Exilenova Plus reported. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-russian-military-facility-in-moscow-oblast/
Off-Topic
Not as serious as the headline suggests (not uncommon when it comes to Omni of course, which is why I usually don’t post their headlines) but of course unfortunate for the employee.
“Explosion at ammunition factory in Lindesberg
An alarm about an explosion at an ammunition manufacturer outside Lindesberg has been received by SOS, reports P4 Örebro.
Something has detonated in the hand of an employee, it is said to be a minor explosion according to the police.
– We classify it as a workplace accident at the moment, says Christina Hallin, police spokesperson, to the radio.
The person is said to be injured but is awake and able to speak. They have been taken to hospital by ambulance, SOS alarm tells Nerikes Allehanda.
There is no risk of further explosions. The explosion is also said not to have caused fire or smoke development.”
https://omni.se/larm-om-explosion-hos-ammunitionstillverkare/a/BxGRR9
Automatically translated:
“Two drones have crashed in Latvia; the threat to the airspace in the regions of Balvi, Ludza, and Rēzekne has ceased.
The Latvian Air Force has identified the entry of foreign unmanned aerial vehicles into Latvian airspace from Russia, two unmanned aerial vehicles have crashed in Latgale, confirmed the National Armed Forces (NBS) to LTV. The crash site of one of the unmanned aerial vehicles has been found, but the other has not been identified. However, early on Thursday morning, an airspace threat was declared in the regions of Balvi, Ludza, and Rēzekne. The National Armed Forces announced at 8:20 that the threat to the airspace has ceased.
At around 3:30 PM, the State Police received a call to an oil storage facility on Komunalājagata Street in Rēzekne, where smoke was visible. Initial information indicated that a drone may have crashed at the site, the police stated.”
https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/07.05.2026-latvijas-teritorija-nokritusi-2-droni-beidzies-gaisa-telpas-apdraudejums-balvu-ludzas-un-rezeknes-novada.a645973/
Very unfortunate if a Ukrainian drone manages to crash right in a Latvian oil depot.🤔
Did it fly off course and was the Ukrainian AI set to target tanks thinking it was Russian? Or is it the Russians’ drone trying to frame Ukraine?
The observation site speculates about this:
https://x.com/oplatsen/status/2052265360439574772
Spring and military successes for Ukraine are in the air.
It will be so exciting to follow the breakthrough(s) and the subsequent Russian retreats!
Game towards one goal soon. Thanks for a very good post Johan no 1👍👍👍
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2
S Slobozhansky 17💥↗️
Kupyansk 10💥↗️
Lyman 17💥↗️
Slovyansk 0
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 17💥
Pokrovsk 29💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 2↘️
Huliaipole 21💥
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Localized 119↘️
Unlocalized 38↘️↘️
Total 157↘️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.32↘️
KWIA per unlocalized attack just over 14.
👍 Sad that unlocalized decreased.
USA köper stora mängder gödningsmedel från Ryssland som i sin tur fått extra hjälp av USA genom att deras konkurrenter fått ökade tullar medan Ryssland däremot sluppit det.
Håller det i sig (troligt eftersom det redan ökat med 37% från förra året) blir det över 2,2 miljarder USD under 2026.
USAs import från Ryssland har sett ut så här
2021: 29,6 miljarder USD
2022: 14,4 miljarder USD
2023: 4,6 miljarder USD
2024: 3 miljarder USD
2025: 3,8 miljarder USD
Under Biden minskade man kraftigt importen efter att det fullskaliga kriget startade men sedan Trump tog över har man alltså börjat öka igen. Blir intressant att se vad det slutar med under 2026. Ökningen 2025 var inte så kraftigt ändå. En del av det man importerar (Uran te.x.) är kanske svårt att hitta ersättare.
Ryska staten kommer att dra in (grovt räknat) mellan 1 – 1,5 miljarder bara i skatter från exporten till USA.
Vi får hoppas att USA inte går tillbaka till samma nivå på handel som innan kriget utan håller sig kvar på en relativt låg nivå.
Som jämförelse importerar USA ungefär 1/3 från Ukraina jämfört med Ryssland (1,44 miljarder under 2025).
Sen har vi tyvärr flera länder i Europa som inte heller kan avstå från att importera från Ryssland, men totalt sett har det minskat väldigt mycket.
** The U.S. is setting records for fertilizer purchases from Russia
In March, the United States imported more than $240 million worth of Russian fertilizers — the highest level in the history of bilateral trade. For the quarter, the total reached $564 million, up 37% year-on-year.
Russian fertilizers remain competitive due to cheap natural gas used in production — which keeps prices lower. Sanctions have also had an unexpected effect: new U.S. tariffs did not hit Russia but affected its competitors, tilting the market in Moscow’s favor.
The situation was further worsened by the crisis in the Middle East. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed many suppliers out of the market, sending fertilizer prices sharply higher. Against this backdrop, the U.S. is forced to buy from Russia — otherwise the impact on agriculture would be severe. **
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2052035430099365988
Thank you for another great post Johan! 👍👍👍
Well… I guess I have to thank you for that then.
I learned the importance of diplomatic courtesy during the peace negotiations with the Danes after Charles X’s successful war against them.
😂
Agree 👍
Off-Topic, the war in Iran
“Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made Donald Trump back down from the military operation in the Strait of Hormuz, sources told NBC News.
On Sunday, President Trump announced that the US would initiate ‘Project Freedom’ to escort ships and sailors through the strait. But less than two days later, Trump made a U-turn and stated that the operation had been canceled.
The reason is said to be that Saudi Arabia stopped the US military from using the country’s airbases and airspace. Mohammed bin Salman was reportedly completely unprepared for the operation, as were several other leaders in the Gulf states.
During a phone call with Trump, the Crown Prince is said to have threatened to withdraw permission for US presence at Saudi airbases, which in practice forced Trump to pause the operation. Saudi Arabia and other countries around the Persian Gulf are instead eager to resolve the conflict with Iran through diplomacy, the sources say.”
https://omni.se/kallor-prinsen-satte-stopp-for-trumps-hormuzinsats/a/e7a85Q
—
“Iran may respond to the US’s new peace proposal during the day, a source told CNN. On Wednesday, it became known that the US had developed a ‘declaration of intent’ in 14 points. According to sources to Axios, both the US and Iran want to reach an agreement to end the war as soon as possible.
It is still unclear whether the parties will agree on anything concrete. But President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday evening that they had had ‘very good talks’ with Iran over the past 24 hours.
At the same time, conflicting reports come from Iranian state media, which describe the reports of successes in the negotiations as false and exaggerated.”
https://omni.se/kallor-iran-vantas-svara-pa-usa-s-fredsforslag-idag/a/y5gvw2
Iran’s Parliament Speaker is now shitposting:
“Operation Trust Me Bro failed.
Now back to routine with Operation Fauxios.”
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2052141463270486025
Off-Topic, election influence
I wonder if we will soon see an escalation here in Sweden as well?
(Maybe we will see Russian and American “Scanians” starting to argue that Skåne should belong to Denmark? 😄 )
No wonder Canada is turning more and more towards Europe when its former best partner is joining forces with Russia.
“Canada warned about Russian and American influence in Alberta
When the Liberals and Mark Carney won the election in Canada about a year ago, pages as well as TikTok and YouTube accounts with names like ‘Albertaseparatist’ began to appear. The name referred to the separatist movement in the province of Alberta, which wants to break away from Canada.
But the accounts had no connection to either Canada or Alberta, reports CBC. They are instead believed to have been operated by a Russian network for covert influence operations.
Articles published on the accounts had headlines such as ‘Arguments for independence over provincial status’ and ‘Ottawa’s piggy bank wakes up.’
A new report warns that both Russian and pro-Trump actors are amplifying and spreading disinformation about the separatist movement in Alberta.
After the group recently announced that it has gathered enough support for a referendum on independence, the public and authorities are urged to prepare for more disinformation campaigns and attempts at foreign influence.
‘Now American officials and influencers have also become part of the threat picture through open political pressure, deliberate provocations, and a powerful social media ecosystem targeting the separatist movement in Alberta,’ the report states.”
https://omni.se/kanada-varnar-for-rysk-och-amerikansk-paverkan-i-alberta/a/zOMLxO
A fixed connection to Skåne/Zealand and Skåne will become Danish within a generation. No arguments needed from Russians or Americans.
** 🔴 BREAKING: Russian forces attacked Dnipro overnight, injuring four people, according to the local authorities. Apartment buildings and residential areas were targeted. **
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mlapkuix5b22
** 🔥👀 Perm, probably LPDS “Perm” was attacked again Against this background, the refinery is urgently relieving pressure in the system **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mlape24ijs2b
** While Russian forces are frantically trying to shield Moscow for the May 9 parade, the Russian city of Perm was successfully struck again. It looks like that the Perm Refinery was the target. ** Movie:
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mlapcrah4c2i
** Attack on Naro-Fominsk, Moscow region, the Nara military logistics complex. The Nara complex is a large-scale, high-tech Russian military facility designed for the storage and distribution of military cargo, providing automated logistics support for the Russian armed forces. **
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mlamfgftic25
Järnvägstransporterna i Ryssland fortsätter att minska.
** ‼️ Russian Railways April 2026 Loading Update Thread Things look…weird. **
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mkzzzskm522y
Question to the audience regarding translation
Posts surrounded by ** are posts that I have posted on the English version of the site and which have then been automatically translated into Swedish. The translation is not always perfect but still works quite well.
The question is whether you prefer that method so you can read it in Swedish or if I should ignore that and post as usual so it will be the English original? (You can always switch to the English version of the site if you want to see the English original).
Putin once cultivated the image of a fearless strongman.
Now reports describe a ruler who trusts almost no one, surrounds himself with armed guards even among carefully vetted inner circles, – and constantly moves between protected, secluded locations.
This is what happens when authoritarian power begins to rot from within.
Dictators stop appearing among ordinary people.
They retreat to bunkers, private facilities, hidden corridors, and security layers designed as much to prevent betrayal as murder.
The Kremlin still projects strength on TV.
But paranoia is not strength.
A leader who fears open spaces, public exposure, and even his own circle already lives politically under siege.
History has seen this pattern before.
Fascist systems often collapse long before the final moment becomes visible to the outside world.
The first signs are
Ukraine did not only damage Russia militarily.
It shattered the myth of the untouchable power surrounding Putin himself.
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/vin-ne-doviryae-absolyutno-nikomu-stupak-nazvav-najbilsh-i-najmensh-nebezpechni-lokatsii-dlya-putina.htm