The war in Ukraine 2025-05-22

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Good morning!

Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-05-22

  • 870 KIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 5 APVs
  • 32 Artillery systems
  • 105 UAVs
  • 99 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI!


Updated 09:32
It’s a bit difficult to assess the situation right now as we see that Russian losses have decreased recently.

There is talk that the Russians are gathering for an offensive and thus saving manpower and equipment, but it could also be due to them starting to struggle to allocate resources.

On the other hand, the number of clashes is still high. While it could be because they are deploying fewer soldiers, etc. now than before, the simplest explanation is that the Russians are attacking just as intensely as before and that Ukraine is not able to counter as strongly.

The Russians are gaining new ground every day, unfortunately indicating that the decrease in losses may not be due to any change in Russian tactics.

It could be that Ukraine is starting to struggle to defend itself.
If that’s the case, it’s not surprising that Putin refuses to negotiate peace. Why should he when everything is going smoothly?

However, I choose to see it positively instead.

If Ukraine is not defending as fiercely, it could be because they are being more cautious to avoid their own losses and therefore choosing to retreat more often. It’s not about lacking capability but rather a conscious strategy.

Ukraine may be choosing to consolidate in order to launch heavier counterattacks later when they identify weaknesses in the Russian forces, or more likely, they are preparing for the larger Russian offensive that is rumored.

The Russian losses decreased ahead of the spring/summer offensive in 2023 that Ukraine announced they would carry out (remember #SpringIsComing).
I believe the Russians simply took it easy to save manpower and equipment to prepare, which could be exactly what Ukraine is doing now. When Ukraine’s offensive stalled and reached its peak, it was the Russians who then accelerated in October 2023.

So, I hope we will see the opposite this year.

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77 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-05-22”

    1. Lynx

      Wasn’t it a Brazilian researcher working in Norway who was exposed as a Russian spy a few years ago..? It seems that Moscow is using certain countries with poor population registration as incubators nowadays.

      1. MatsExtrude

        Well, I recognize that with Norway. It’s quite smart to go through other countries first, of course, it becomes easier to slip through. One wonders how infiltrated we really are..

    2. Westley Richard

      It seems to be easy to get a personal certificate and thus a new identity in Brazil. It will probably soon be the same in Sweden, come in without a passport, get a coordination number, change gender and name 20 times and you will come out as a clean spy.

  6. MatsExtrude
    AFU “In total, 144 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.
    According to information, yesterday the enemy launched 90 airstrikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, dropped 144 controlled aviation bombs, and engaged 2492 kamikaze drones. Also the enemy carried out 5291 artillery shelling, in particular 114 – from jet systems of salpovogo fire.”
  12. 205

     
    Update as of 08.00 22.05.2025 on the Russian invasion
     
    In total, 144↘️ combat engagements were recorded over the past day. ⏱️164, 177, 167, 145, 165, 168, 163, 166, 155, 161, 196, 193, 196, 171, 200, 269, 253, 216, 199, 199, 177, 178, 168, 174, 156, 175, 168, 144, 165, 96, 127, 162, 143, 125, 111, 99
     
    #Kharkiv 6⏱️3, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 4, 11, 18, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8, 2, 2, 9, 6, 0, 0, 0, 4, 4, 0, 1, 2, 7, 1
     
    #Kupyansk 4⏱️1, 3, 2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 5, 7, 6, 6, 5, 6, 9, 7, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 7, 11, 4
     
    #Lyman 17💥↘️⏱️30, 23, 22, 24, 17, 16, 24, 29, 20, 25, 8, 17, 27, 24, 21, 31, 22, 16, 27, 27, 36, 21, 18, 20, 22, 19, 15, 20, 14, 25, 12, 14, 17, 20
     
    #Siverskyi  2⏱️1, 4, 6, 10, 4, 3, 5, 3, 6, 8, 4, 8, 5, 6, -, 0, 3, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2
     
    #Kramatorsk 3⏱️6, 6, 9, 8, 8, 8, 4, 4, 9, 10, 6, 10, 5, 4, 10, 6, 8, 6, 6, 13, 10, 16, 13, 8, 13, 1, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 8
     
    #Toretsk 16💥⏱️14, 13, 11, 14, 19, 8, 18, 6, 9, 6, 12, 15, 9, 13, 8, 6, 16, 7, 8, 4, 10, 6, 14, 9, 29, 16, 17, 13, 23, 10, 18, 26, 11
     
    #Pokrovsk 54💥💥💥↗️⏱️44, 72, 65, 54, 52, 75, 74, 54, 60, 70, 60, 65, 71, 61, 77, 78, 115, 78, 113, 83, 64, 85, 75, 59, 64, 68, 44, 65, 56, 53, 61, 39, 54, 64 According to preliminary data in the 22-report at  14 combats, AFU🇺🇦 eliminated 67 occupants 🇷🇺 and wounded 68 in this sector today. They destroyed an armoured combat vehicle, two cars, two motorcycles, 19 UAVs, one cannon and one communication antenna.
    #Novopavlivka 19💥↘️⏱️33, 22, 24, 23, 18, 23, 26, 30, 24, 13, 19, 31 , 28, 32, 23, 24, 52, 66, 23, 15, 16, 13, 23, 13, 13, 19, 10, 15, 17, 19, 5, 12, 9, 9
     
    #Huliaipil  3⏱️2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 0 , 0, 1, 1, 2, 7, 5, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
     
    #Orikhivsk 4⏱️2, 4, 2, 7, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 2, 6, 3, 7, 4, 14, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 0, 5, 1, 4, 4, 9, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1
     
    #Prydniprovsky 1⏱️1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 6, 5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1 , 1, 3, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0
     
    #Kursk 5↘️⏱️13, 10, 18, 14, 13, 14, 9, 12, 9, 8, 25, 19, 19, 19, 11, 18 23, 23, 20, 33, 21, 25, 15, 23, 15, 30, 27, 26, 22, 21, 16, 20, 23, 21 In the Kursk sector, Ukrainian troops repelled five militants’ attacks yesterday. The enemy also carried out 17 air strikes, using 34 guided aerial bombs, and fired 191 times, nine of which were from multiple launch rocket systems.
     

      1. 205

        Responding here to your comment above: “If it is the case that Ukraine is not defending itself as fiercely, it may be because they have become even more cautious about taking their own losses and therefore choose to retreat to a greater extent. So, it’s not about a lack of ability but rather a deliberate strategy.”
         
        Yes, provided that they have solid defense lines to fall back to. It could be part of the “please Trump” strategy to engage less, i.e., cause fewer casualties among Russian forces. Casualties that are recurrent in Trump’s rhetoric are mainly among the Russians if one relies on the numbers from UA.

        1. Westley Richard

          So it can be, adjusting the measurement method according to the outcome that Trump wants.
          At the same time, rarely do any of the numbers that Trump pulls in his bingo match.

  13. Lynx

    Hmm, could it mean that Moscow is trying to consolidate and review what they have left..? Their personnel supply probably cannot sustain prolonged losses of over +1000 (if the figures that have been reported are correct).

    I think it has been significantly lower for a while now (without looking closer at the numbers).

    1. MatsExtrude

      It could be that the losses have decreased quite clearly. If the Russians gather themselves for an offensive, or start having difficulty in getting resources through, it’s hard to know.

      The number of clashes is still high, it could be because they are deploying fewer soldiers now than before, but unfortunately, it could also mean that Ukraine is having a harder time resisting. It might be just as intense as before but they are not able to push back as hard. The Russians are taking new ground every day and unfortunately, that also indicates that it might be the case.

      It could also be that Ukraine is being extra cautious with their own losses and therefore chooses to retreat, meaning it’s not a lack of capability but a conscious strategy.
      In fact, it could be the opposite, that Ukraine deliberately chooses to consolidate in order to later carry out heavier counterattacks when they discover weaknesses in the Russians.

        1. 205

          Answered above about the fact that it requires prepared defense lines/fortifications to fall back to, where up until these one can/allow themselves to give up terrain and Russian losses.

          1. MatsExtrude

            Well, if you consciously reverse, it would of course be good if you had new lines, otherwise it will only be for the Russians to drive on. 

      2. Westley Richard

        Can there be another possibility?
        Drones have become the new battlefield super weapons causing 70% of casualties. They are difficult to combat for ground troops so maybe it’s more drone warfare now.
        Would you rather have ten drones in the air than one infantry soldier in the forest?

        1. MatsExtrude

          Ah, they are attacking just like before, but mainly using drones?
          Could definitely be the case.

          As the Russians slowly gain ground, it could indicate that they have a drone advantage.
          They pre-fight with drones, only when it’s clear do they send in soldiers who with fewer losses than before can take new positions. 

          Sad, but not unlikely if that’s actually the case.

      3. Lynx

        I daydream about the day when Ukraine can establish air superiority. Drone warfare is all well and good, but Moscow would quickly run into problems if Ukraine could control the airspace. It’s just not possible to reach attack aircraft with drones. On the other hand, the opposite works perfectly fine, heavy air assaults are just as effective as heavy artillery bombardment.

        1. 205

          This would probably have been the case if it had been NATO with its superior air combat forces standing as the opponent. For this very reason, I believe that Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO for as long as possible, and is trying to stay under the radar and within NATO’s “red lines.” Therefore, a great risk to even test NATO in the Baltics as the blog discusses in connection with Zapad2025.

            1. Lynx

              However, it is on the right side of the red line which actually signifies acts of war. I don’t think Moscow will cross that line, but of course, we’ll see.

          1. Lynx

            We are well on our way, with GlobalEye and fighter aircraft that can take advantage of the resource.

            But the toughest job is probably implementing such an air combat doctrine, flying the aircraft and handling different mission profiles is one thing. But putting it all together into a coherent doctrine with leadership and control is probably the hardest, it’s a new concept and I guess it takes time to get rolling regardless of what aircraft they have.

    2. Westley Richard

      Sweden’s defense industry is growing by 500 jobs per month in Sweden, and we certainly also generate a lot of jobs in Ukraine and in other countries through various collaborations.
      We would probably have liked the motto “An Archer a day, keeps the Russians away,” but we probably have to be happy with the little things.
      The same probably applies to other countries that have a defense industry.

    3. johan No.1

      The dumbest thing I’ve done in the last 10 years – not buying stocks in the defense industry in 2022…

      I knew it but as usual no money.

    1. 205

      If it is Putin who feels that he has momentum and therefore is reluctant at the moment, the answer to your question may be that if Ukraine starts using its drone weapons, the situation could be reversed, thus favoring peace negotiations. When Putin experiences setbacks. Didn’t we see that situation during the first months of the year?

  17. johan No.1

    The strategic reserves of the RU exist for me.

    I have had to accept that they are preparing for an offensive in Ukraine with other units, as everyone says – I didn’t think so.

    North of Pokrovsk, RU has unfortunately had successes.

    And Kupiansk is starting to look tricky.

    Considering that they do not want to negotiate peace, they probably have offensive capabilities.

  20. Westley Richard

    Two employees at the Israeli embassy in Washington were shot dead on Thursday morning, according to AP.

    According to information provided to NBC, the suspected murderer shouted “Free Palestine” when he was arrested.

    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/5EKerX/uppgift-israelisk-ambassadpersonal-ihjalskjuten-i-washington

    I don’t believe the murderer was promoting the Palestinian cause with this, Trump will probably open the arsenal wide.

  21. Westley Richard

    🔴 Moscow will not agree to an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine, says Russian FM Lavrov.
    https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lpr3yidnob2s

     

    🇺🇸👀 U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham:

     

    “If the ceasefire memo doesn’t show Putin wants peace, we’ll impose 500% tariffs on Russia. We’ll wait a few days!”

    https://bsky.app/profile/savchenkoua.bsky.social/post/3lpqj4tnxx22h

     

    Now everyone is waiting for Trump to wake up,

     

     

     

      1. Lynx

        Trump and mini-swullo chatter like ducks when they should be growling threateningly towards Moscow instead. Perhaps one of the reasons why the dollar continues to decline while interest rates are on the rise. Let’s see if Congress loses patience in the end, but for now, it’s silk gloves.

    2. Lynx

      They cannot handle the effects of ceasefire, the fighting in Ukraine is now the strategic goal in itself. There is no other way forward for Moscow, I guess.

    3. MatsExtrude

      Offensive and the fact that they are actually gaining ground every day. Just looking at the map, it seems to be going well for them.

  23. johan No.1

    They needed a passive Ukraine since the turn of the year, but if their offensive capability in Ukraine is ready, they absolutely do not want a ceasefire.

  24. Lars

    I think it seems like Putin is succeeding in persuading Trump to withdraw, as it’s only a matter of time before Russia crushes Ukraine. Furthermore, very lucrative deals are promised as a thank you for the help. The Russians always have hubris, and Putin is definitely convinced of Russia’s superiority. It would be very bad for Europe if Trump were to simply withdraw without providing any form of support in the future.

    1. johan No.1

      Quite clear that Russia does not want even a ceasefire right now.

      What can then be determined with certainty is that they are not just hanging by a thread – not many believed that. The prevailing thought was that they needed it to gather strength after nearly 1.5 years of uninterrupted offensive.

      They also start to sound arrogant and look pleased – this is how they have always behaved when they feel they have the wind at their backs.

      So yes – definitely reason to be a little worried again and that we in Europe do nothing is as usual very exciting.

      The only thing we do is now sell weapons to Ukraine so we have made good business out of this if nothing else.

  25. johan No.1

    Could it be as simple as SÄPO acting on the Turkish investigation?

    “Today’s ETC can reveal through sources that behind the summary indictment lies an extensive, classified investigation claiming that there is a “terror cell” in Sweden allegedly consisting of Joakim and a number of Swedish and Swedish-Kurdish activists and debaters. They are said to be acting in collaboration with the PKK. And, according to the Turkish security service, they are acting through Dagens ETC.”

    https://www.etc.se/ledare/turkiet-hoejer-insatsen-gaar-till-attack-mot-hela-dagens-etc

  26. Peter Den Större

    I do not want to ruin the prelude to an epic Friday party tomorrow and therefore ask my question here and now. Namely. If the situation really escalates and the Russians start to hiss about their nuclear weapons, what does that mean? What would the West and NATO risk triggering if, with combined efforts, they push the bunker dwarf back into the hole? What types of nuclear pieces could be used? What would the damages be – preferably compared to what Ukraine has already been subjected to? Has the “worst” already happened, but with conventional weapons?

    1. johan No.1

      No worries – tomorrow I will cut in with breaking news on how terrible ETC is and then the mood will be ruined for some.

      My chosen position is as follows – 

      Russia will never stop using the nuclear threat and constantly advancing their positions, eventually it will be Ireland that will become Russian.

      Because that’s how they operate – it’s in their DNA.

      Since 2022, the West has been trying to erase RU hard and we have – Ukraine, 7 October, Houti, cut sea cables, puppy influence in Romania and Moldova, a couple of hundred sabotages in Europe, subversive activities on steroids. We also have civilians who have been imprisoned and returned dead without brain and eyes, we have castrations, amputated prisoners, raped and murdered five-year-olds and completely obliterated cities – very many.

      The only thing one CAN do is not to yield to the threat (which the West has actually done since 2022…) but at the same time prepare for the worst – a damn lot of LV and some B2s fully fueled in the UK and constant satellite monitoring of silos.

      In the future – the worse it goes for RU, the more they will threaten.

      They will also activate their groups/parties/people in Europe who accuse our governments of nuclear war.

  27. johan No.1

    Now apparently Alice Mede is going to cancel every opinion maker to the left of center who is against her. Ebba Bush is pleased because she seems to be forgotten now.

  31. Westley Richard

    ⚡️Russia shuts down Moscow airports amid Ukrainian drone strikes.

    Russian authorities have shut down three airports in Moscow amid Ukrainian drone strikes overnight, Russian officials and state media reported on May 23. Operations have been suspended at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lpsgyfytcs23

    Many were spared from experiencing flight shame for a few hours.

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