Life was more in the passing lane when, alone in the biting wind, one saw the potential in the world’s best shooting while everyone else thought Russia would be in Kiev in three days – headwinds strengthen, everyone who lives in Norrland north of Uppsala in the mosquito ghetto knows that. The number of bunglers who have said over the years that it would be trench warfare à la WW1 and a “Korean peace” wouldn’t even fit in the Globe Arena.
Now it is no longer possible to find any angles in the Ukraine war that a thousand other analysts haven’t already covered six lanes wide – in the end, everyone seems to have understood what separates the world’s best shooting from the Red Storm’s crutch shooting mixed with crawling shooting. They have shifted their position quietly and have always believed in the Ukrainian miracle. No one bothers to check what they wrote earlier, so they got their fresh start and can draw a divine salary.
It’s also no use getting bogged down in domestic politics before the election because eight parliamentary parties are currently lying through their teeth about everything they will do better than everyone else if we just choose them – making the first 250,000 SEK tax-free is something no one likes even though it does more for low-paid workers and is a tax cut, so something both sides of the fence should like. That probably tells you something about politicians in general more than that they haven’t figured it out yet because when it comes to raising their own salaries and raking in various benefits, they never miss an opening – all politicians in all parties. I can somewhat think that when a capitalist lives as he teaches, it’s less lousy than when the defenders of the weak also do it as soon as they get the chance, but it’s just nuances on a pitch-black canvas.
Trump’s rampages and the Iran war are also not worth getting into because everything is just constant disinformation. I sympathize with the people of Iran and wonder a bit if Israel is starting to be in a bad position but have also grown tired of it. Usually, the carousel during a week is; threat, peace, bombings, eternal peace, and then fighting everything.
Complaining about Trump, Biden, Sullivan, Scholz, and Europe’s general betrayal until 2026 is also getting tiresome – we live in a world where no one is ever held accountable for this gang, and Ukraine has for some unfathomable reason managed to navigate all those mines and come out on top – it should have been impossible but they have shown time and again that it’s just a door waiting to be opened, and it is never locked. With some exceptions, ourselves in Sweden for example, many countries that out of pure self-preservation should have wholeheartedly supported Ukraine have dragged their feet and constantly looked for the best return on the blood sacrifices.
It’s hysterically funny that Putin, despite all cheating, is going to lose his special operation. Kursk was really slippery – Trump didn’t mention it with a word, Putin refused to receive his negotiators in Moscow, Zelensky hesitates when he says it became unsustainable and UA retreated from all areas a few days before the negotiations between the USA and Russia were to begin. Then Putin goes to Kursk in uniform and struts around with a broad grin – he couldn’t manage to retake lost Russian land and had to cheat his way through it, very Russian.
Don’t forget the paid subscription – I’ll probably come up with something to write about again soon that will blow your socks off.
Was named a financial genius in the thread on johanno1.se so there will be a post about what you should put all your savings in now in July – a real rocket promised just in time for retirement, as long as the stock markets keep heading for new highs.
I’ve squeezed everything out of the Russian escalation into the Baltics – the marker I am waiting for is if the US heavy battalion in Estonia is withdrawn, then the Russians will follow.
Ukraine is trying to topple Belarus, we’ve also run that on repeat with the whole process as the Russian empire where the sun never sets implodes to the tunes of Swan Lake in black and white. There will certainly be a post about that plan which may need to be reviewed a few more times since all analysts seem content with peace and ceasefire – I can guarantee it won’t stop there as soon as the opportunity arises.
Maybe I should start with model building, I’m getting tired of Rise of Nations.
From my seat in the stands, I really only see one threat to a Ukrainian smashing victory – that Putin agrees to a ceasefire and Europe is talked down so Ukraine is forced into it – the only remaining leverage is the EU membership, so Europe must not let itself be talked out of it. Then everything goes back to square one but I think Meloni and Macron are holding their style right now, especially Meloni is more than we thought.
The Nordics have no thought of anything like that – we want to see Russian blood in the water as many liters as we can get. The fact is that the country Sweden with its 10 million inhabitants is at the absolute top in all kinds of support and signal politics, I think we will gain a lot more respect in the EU and internationally after this. The next government, whoever it may be, should be careful not to tarnish this newly bought reputation which is extremely good for the country in every way. I have lived through the humanitarian great power, the negotiations with Palestine – Israel where our negotiator became persona non grata with both parties. Not to mention all possible major international projects that would have put us on the map but ended with us having to buy the highly coveted position in the UN with cash. The support for our blood brothers in Ukraine is considerably more low-key but the world sees what we do without laughing out loud – Sweden as a country is definitely on the rise in reputation and we must nurture it like a newly bought kebab with extra white sauce.
Putin’s cautious peace overtures have already started to be mixed with claims that he is at war with Europe and NATO to underpin the upcoming conflict with the Baltics.
Trump has just started up again about immediate peace and that everything is Ukraine’s fault as usual, pretty soon Ukraine will probably be the aggressor and Russia wants peace in our time to protect the children.
Soon RU will probably also be sitting in the UN crying about all of Ukraine’s war crimes but if Europe does nothing beyond doing absolutely nothing, it won’t slow Ukraine’s path to a smashing victory. Doing nothing is usually our politicians’ specialty so we should be able to soft-land this runaway express train just before the station if Ukraine is allowed to manage themselves without us disturbing them.
One must not forget that Ukraine is still paying for this in blood and that every meter is dearly bought. 3rd AC and their extent up in Lyman have had a couple of attempts that were brutally smashed.
UA is supposed to lose 1:3 to 1:5 of RU losses but it is still several thousand per month – we must not forget this in the euphoria.
It has probably dawned on quite a few that Ukraine has created this war’s “wunderwaffen”. WWII with its “blitzkrieg” is the closest in time, but all major conflicts usually have a party that is quick to find something that works, and then they dominate geographically for quite a while.
Swedish Caroleans, the feared Spanish infantry, Macedonians, Roman legions who took everything they met on the battlefields and made it their own, and many more.
The USA is just trying to steal Ukrainian technology and sell it themselves, but Europe seems to be fair, offering joint projects and buying in?
I believe Ukraine has done the following – a completely decentralized arms industry solely focused on functionality (dead Russian bastard) with a simple track to field test and deliver. They are open to everything, no lobbying from old weapons giants holding things back, and they pay their way.
Probably the companies have a deal where they must sell in Ukraine first and at “Ukraine prices” and then, as a thank you, they get permission to try to sell their products internationally with the state’s help.
A fully competitive market economy and doing like the Romans – if you meet a weapon on the battlefield, retreat and immediately build your own copy which you improve to deliver a counterstrike 10 times worse.
The only thing Ukraine really hasn’t managed to build is the advanced aircraft, which for a long time was the US ace up the sleeve to hold them back. Putin has completely shifted from artillery to FAB (fuel-air bombs) which are still protected.
Now Ukraine has at least built its own FAB – we know this weapon is terrible and a bunker killer. All Russian equipment is buried today, so welcome buried in boiling earth, Russian bastards.
They are also working on everything else – ICBMs, nuclear weapons technology, Patriot copies, and literally every type of missile and drone that has existed on the drawing board.
Their drones are increasingly AI-controlled and one operator can now control thousands of drones – gone are the days when it was a quadcopter with a strapped-on hand grenade dropped through an open turret hatch by an operator.
This is how it feels on the receiving side now.
You also remember how it then became RPG grenades and direct hits, on a few occasions I suggested 155mm shells taped onto drones and was laughed at, but they have passed that and left several miles behind.
Late 2022 or early 2023 I also once declared that the drone weapon would not become the new black – how wrong I was.
So what is this new black drone weapon that I have always believed in so strongly?
It is a completely new branch of weapons with the following functions –
– information gathering and target acquisition, today Ukraine has its own satellites and everything that looks down on the ground CAN have IR and direct coordinate acquisition on the screen. You no longer need to squint to find contours and guess approximate coordinates. You see a large bright red figure hobbling forward on crutches and the coordinates come up directly on the screen.
– a kill-chain which we probably call the digital battlefield in Sweden? The information goes from detection where it is now sorted automatically and then to the appropriate weapon platform which is often the drone weapon. Ukraine started early with its “Uber for artillery”. Russia couldn’t manage to use its own platform before China stepped in to handle it for them, now today it is unfortunately serviceable. Ukraine has apparently cut its kill-chain to “seconds” according to themselves which probably means rapid fire on target, I guess under minutes?
Zelensky tried to give Trump an iPad where they get all information in real time but he didn’t want it, it’s just the summaries, but when twelve-gauge shotgun users visited Ukraine and saw their digital battlefield centers, it blew their socks off.
“It’s better than what we have in the USA,” was said wide-eyed several times.
When Russia has tested us in Europe, we sometimes discover the drones by chance and then we can’t shoot them down, so pretty sure that “it’s better than what we have in Europe” also applies here.
– the drones. Today Ukraine has everything, FPV drones that create a fire control zone between 0km-50km operated by the brigades themselves and drone groups. Independent drone units that can quickly pool capabilities to a prioritized area where they bring everything on a bunch of pickups.
Then came the “mid-range” a few months ago between 50km-250km and since it was rolled out as a new capability, it hit the Russian logistics hard. Exactly like when HIMARS came in 2022 and the US provided longer-range ammunition in stages so just as Russia, sweating profusely, moved all depots backward, they were knocked out again with new ammunition. This capability seems to be with the special forces and drone units?
Back then it was the US making the target acquisitions and if you remember, many higher staffs were knocked out despite being constantly relocated. Today everything is buried in underground “cities” so it’s a bit harder but from time to time they get a hit on some slow CAA staff who wanted a sea view. Welcome homemade FAB, I say.
The long-range drones and first missiles were in the air already in 2023 but Ukraine was constantly stopped. Quietly, they have built a whole palette of drones and missiles from old V1s to advanced cruise missiles that completely replace Tomahawks, Storm Shadow, and Taurus.
All this costs pesetas instead of our “50 million missiles”.
Sometimes Zelensky used to say “we are building 10 million FPV drones this year and 2500 long-range ones per year” – what the numbers are today I don’t know but we see several times a week that they have enough 😀
UA has now passed a tipping point in several drone types where they have double or better than RU, and are still increasing.
EW – electronic warfare. It was long a joke when you saw some Russian standing with a futuristic rifle aiming at a drone flying into him unhindered, and Ukraine long chose kinetic countermeasures.
Now they have systems that work on all frequencies and are so effective that they have jammed many Zircon missiles which are Russia’s latest in the arsenal.
The Ukrainian EW weapon works.
They were also early with acoustic warning systems that the USA now seems to be trying to copy besides many other systems so they basically have full control over incoming drone threats. Compare that with us in Europe, that Belgian or German army base where
We wrote about it when it happened even though everyone got upset that I praised Russian weapons – small drones that fit in a cassette on a handheld “rifle” we thought aloud would come, and we are probably almost there?
Dirt-cheap fire-and-forget drones that have now surpassed 70% of shot down threats and can also combat incoming missiles, and absolutely slow Geran drones. The anti-drone drones seem to be effective little helpers.
-Radar in all its forms, small and large, where part of the chain is to log Russian drone groups and combat them lightning fast. For both Ukraine and Russia, the enemy’s drone groups are the highest priority to target, and Ukraine comes out on top.
Since Ukraine has all these capabilities fully integrated, they could quickly send drone groups down to MENA when Iran started bombing surrounding countries. They made such a big difference that the entire MENA immediately signed contracts at any price.
Ukraine tried to quickly train local operators but it did not go very well – half the success lies in the person controlling the system, they understood quickly.
It is easy to see that AI-controlled drone swarms are one of the ways forward along with the anti-drone drones.
Ukraine is also experimenting with battlefield lasers and the new German LV akan is very effective, but they are large targets so everything handheld, cheap, and functional is preferable.
All weapon systems on an expensive slow platform are mostly large targets unless they have very long range. For example, our CV90 GRK version certainly shoots fast but stands directly under the Russians’ FPV drone range and probably won’t last long in combat. Goodness, what a fuss there was on defense Twitter when I happened to say that to them.
Probably eventually there will also be very small AI drones with a warhead the size of a cartridge, it has been in the works for a while. They probably sit on “mother drones” and then release a cloud over a coordinate that buzzes into all openings and searches for targets.
The charm of the drone weapon is that it partly prevents traditional mobile warfare entirely but at the same time allows the fighting party that has the advantage in drone weapons to fight fully mechanized and mobile – somewhat of a paradox that we in Europe have not yet fully understood, I think. It is quite common to invest in a capability that has proven successful and then deprioritize everything else – I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Europe does exactly that going forward and thinks it can manage without mechanized forces as long as it has drones.
The drone groups Ukraine has sent to our exercises where the most infamous was Aurora 2026 are just some platoon with FPV drones so quite far from the most advanced they have if I understand this correctly.
For two years we have been completely outmatched – during Aurora 2026 the exercise leadership finally had to remove the pesky Ukrainians so we could show how well prepared we are for war, just not against a scaled-down drone weapon.
Ukraine is also doing this of course – they are building up all traditional capabilities and today basically have an entire defense force that is mechanized in some form, a mosaic of armored vehicles, artillery, infantry, LV, and air force. A brigade probably has a dozen different types of fragmentation protection but everything is good and they work with what they have. Solve the task, they said in the military service, and that eternal feeling that you never had enough.
You should not be fooled – any enemy that does not have a well-developed drone weapon is a fool, and we in Europe seem to be a few years away from having it.
If there is a conflict, we will have to solve it with infantry and mines – it works but losses will be higher.
The best Europe can do is to temporarily pause large cost items like Spain’s aircraft carrier or Italy’s NATO expenses which also include bridges, or our huge surface combatant purchase from France.
Then we build up the drone weapon from scratch with Ukrainian help and keep the air force and all ground combat capabilities – it is probably attractive not to have any ground combat capability at all and just invest in the drone weapon but we must do like Ukraine.
Then we are safe and can over time start building expeditionary capabilities for other conflict zones if we need to help our friends around the world when Trump, Putin, and Xi have divided the world into geographic slices among themselves.
If we seriously follow Ukraine’s lead and stop listening to lobbyists in the defense industry, we have probably reached the goal in two years – it is a ready and well-tested concept so we only need to buy, train, and deploy.
Apparently, there is bubbling in the Russian army, it is not psyops but it is the OSINT sources we have learned to trust over time posting from Russian forums where different units have started threatening Putin with revolution. History repeats itself, maybe…
I will circle back to this when we have a bit more information to go on and then a post about Ukraine’s real plan – the whole “negotiate peace” is probably just for show, they intend to topple the country Russia before this is over. They have repeatedly told us this if you have listened and now Zelensky has managed to reveal that they have a plan for Belarus.
The ball is rolling, we are definitely at the beginning of the end now, that is indisputable but can we give Putin a cheat victory again?
Yes, if Europe lets itself be talked out of it because the US is holding back all LNG this fall. To protect ourselves, we threaten Ukraine with withdrawal of EU membership if they do not accept a necessary ceasefire and peace in our time to save the children.
But the EU and Europe will not stand united at all on that issue so probably that attempt will fail which has now been paved the way for if you have read previous posts.
The hardest thing is to penetrate the fog and understand how we in the West really think and act. Ukraine has been refreshingly honest and open since 2022 and I feel that our government over 4 years has been clear even though the US betrayals were long concealed. For example, when we were not allowed to send our Gripen a few years ago, it was easy to see through the excuses.
Around Iran, the Kurds have started fighting the IRGC, Iraq has had a purge of pro-Iranian elements in the country and the US is building up enormous new capabilities – not everything is signed peace treaties and world peace there, but you have to try to guess as best you can.
Xi Jinping has also said interesting things recently, since it is Putin who is putting pressure on Lukashenko it can only be him who is meant – have we got trouble in paradise?
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/belarus-lukashenko-meets-chinas-xi-beijing-talks-2026-06-29
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Increased attack pressure from both sides. The Russian increase was followed by an equally large Ukrainian one.
N Slobozhansky 6, S Slobozhansky 12💥↘️, Kupyansk 5↗️, Lyman 14💥, Slovyansk 27💥💥↗️, Kramatorsk 1, Kostjantynivka 23💥, Pokrovsk 31💥💥↗️, Oleksandrivskij 4↗️, Huliaipole 23💥↘️, Orikhivsk 0, Prydniprovskij 0,
Localized 146↗️, Unlocalized 110↗️, Total 256↗️, Ratio unloc/loc 0.8
Pokrovsk and towards Kramatorsk/Slovyansk seem to be hotzones?
Both Sloviansk+ and Konstantinivka are high nowadays. Can be involved to some extent as the Russians are attempting, as has been posted about.
Lyman ⏩️ Konstantinivka April 1 — July 1, 2026
Not 250,000 SEK, but C wants to make 183,600 SEK tax-free.
Once again proof that we are wrong and Cornu was right all along. C is the shit. It will be wonderful when they start cooperating with the environmental wackos and the communists, paradise is almost here!
The humble middle that is so humble that everyone gets a place!
Eight shades of red, it can’t get more diluted than Swedish politics.
Hmmm. It is probably not possible to lower taxes in Sweden. The expenditure pressure is too great in the state, municipality, and region.
That’s true but it has been adapted to the availability.
We can shut down authorities.
We can go after corruption and theft of our public
Consider how much of the world’s problems we should finance
Then you probably have to have an upper threshold where it is not tax-free – a high one.
and cut in lots of other things, ROT, RUT, interest deduction?
works perfectly fine as long as you want to like C
many countries already have this
Authorities are number 1. Listen to The Last Supper with Ilan Sade (#111). It’s crazy how much money is poured into nonsense.
One reasonably starts from an OLD budget, let’s say from 1966, and makes a revised budget based on that.
That is an election promise I would vote for, one of few.
Unfortunately, it probably comes with a whole battery of election promises I do not support from the coalition parties.
I might also become a Centre Party member like Maggan 😄
Thank you Johan in advance, I have started reading and look forward to the rest of the reading. Just wanted to ask, are you on your way back to Sweden? It is starting to get cold and chilly, and I, who had planned a breakfast outdoors in the mild summer morning warmth, have had to put on an extra sweater.
Extra sweater… and in Venezuela, they complain about destroyed houses. I sympathize with you.
What a nerd, what are you doing here? Aren’t you supposed to go to Venezuela and help with the rescue work instead of engaging in personal attacks?
Oh, sorry, it was meant as a joke. Sorry, I apologize.
Did not see the joke so early in the morning.
You are not a dork. Unbearable might be a better choice of word.
Better morning mood for morning humor.
👍
Friendship and a sip of mash solve all problems, always joyful to see such joy in the threads and kind words as a conclusion ✊✊
I drank many beers and took many snus during the match yesterday and feel sh1t today – always solves all problems.
17 and rain in Stockholm in a few days – the asphalt melts, from rain
We have low 30s, blazing sun and a little humidity.
The summer months are the worst, the rest of the year is quite ok
100,000 (or more?) FPV drones or a combat boat? The choice should be easy, but we can only hope that those in charge haven’t been talked out of it by lobbyists.
We shouldn’t be building drone stockpiles, but rather the capability to produce them. 40 billion in drone factories might have been a better investment, but we desk warriors don’t have the full picture, so once again I hope those in charge make the right choice.
Thank you Johan for a good report(!)
Some reflections.
1. Thanks for the long-missing definition of “Functionality.”
Functionality = dead Russian bastard
2. I want to contribute an innovative tip to Ukraine in the drone war. Dolphins are intelligent and can be trained to perform advanced tasks. Why not teach them to fly and attack Russian drones? You have to think outside the box and remember where you read it first.
3. Who takes responsibility for having taught Johan to insert images?
But, a good report 👍
I’m cautiously feeling my way here and looking out for tripwires but thanks I think 😄
The images in the thread, that is not the posts, took a long time but MXT now has a simple one-click function for that.
Don’t know if you still have to be on his favorites list to get that button, I think it has been made public?
The dolphins sound smart and innovative, will spend a few days on that 👍
Nice that you’re up and running again 😄
Jari also showed up so it’s almost a family dinner
In our case, it’s probably good to have some boats, as long as we have protection and close protection for them?
The Russians can send missiles and drones over the sea, but if they start sending men over the sea, it might be good to let them test their swimming skills?
10,000 SEK the question is whether one can realistically (=cheaply) protect themselves against 100 cheap drones. War is economics, as we saw, if nothing else, in the Middle East.
I am still not convinced that we should buy a few expensive boats instead of building up production capacity for many cheap drones.
The Middle East also shows that you need a combination of all branches of the military if you want to win. The USA lacks cheap drones and boots on the ground, Iran lacks air forces and air defense, and neither country has really won.
The second part of your first sentence is probably the problem, we don’t have our LV yet and definitely not okay with close protection against the drone weapon.
So they are ridiculously expensive coffins.
Yes – absolutely right that our killzone is the Baltic Sea, no discussion there 😀
If I were FM, we would first have had anti-drone and anti-robot weapons before buying the frog-eaters’ ridiculously expensive frigates.
Expensive platforms are also needed but we should work with what we have until we catch up in the drone weapon, that was really just my point 😀
Hello everyone and especially the Gulavägg maker.
A quick question: Does anyone have information on today’s series of Russian losses?
https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-july-1-2026
A normal day, 1210 KIA, 71 artillery.
The rest is on the link, it is an image so I don’t have the energy to write it out, and I’m not competent enough to copy it in, will have to take lessons from no.1.
Thank you Maggan.
It is the LV robot systems that interest me the most at this stage and 4 more on the list make me a bit cheerier, almost happy.
In the field for posting – all the way to the right it says UPLOAD IMAGE.
The trick is not to write in the field but the first thing you do is upload the image, then you can write below.
MXT is still working on this I believe but it is now possible to upload images without going through seven steps that then don’t work anyway.
The Middle East also shows that you need a combination of all branches of the military if you want to win. The USA lacks cheap drones and boots on the ground, Iran lacks air forces and air defense, and neither country has really won.
See that MXT took a running tab today, I guess you still have high 30 degrees so he is excused with the reason heatstroke 😀
Swedish houses are built against the cold so when it gets as warm as you have it (same as with me) it gets tricky, I just sit under the air conditioning and feel like a prince. We thought about having a system in the house in Sweden but when prices soared in 2021-2022 that plan was scrapped. It is good in winter to keep a steady indoor temperature also when the geothermal heat lets up a bit.
How was it for you in May and June until a week ago when the killer heat came if you go by the media? This killer heat and the records probably swept over Sweden a week ago and if it lasts all July and August I have to agree that it is a bit tough.
Sitting and quickly checking the newspapers and record heat is still the word of the day with 35 degrees death threat and small chances to survive.
Not even Skara Sommarland can you apparently go to, “vomit chaos and mold” 😶
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/pBMgJX/snusket-pa-sommarlanden-krakutbrott-och-flugsvarmar
You can’t swim in Stockholm either 😐
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/WvoMyL/1-8-miljoner-liter-orenat-avloppsvatten-slapptes-ut-i-malaren
I remember in the 90s some politician who took a glass of water from Mälaren outside the city hall and drank it – or am I remembering wrong?
When we moved to Bromma, it was because we were within walking distance to Ängbybadet, the bathing spot I grew up with throughout my childhood.
The first summer was warm so we walked there but after two weeks it closed, a big sign reading “coliform bacteria in the water” and CLOSED.
Where do these blasted coliform bacteria come from that weren’t there when I was a child, and not in the 90s?
Is it our sewage treatment that we pay taxes for that doesn’t work, or what is the problem?
Do we get a tax reduction now when this public service is no longer delivered?
This is maybe not so great 😐
If you remember someone’s post, I am of the opinion that the USA-Russia-China are seven steps ahead in planning and are keeping things from us in Europe.
This feels like one of those steps where they are PROVABLY at least preparing…
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-approved-secret-china-military-training-top-level-sources-say-2026-07-01/
Then we have “95% dissimilarity” on this according to a unanimous readership, but now at least the Baltics are starting to get seriously nervous and the summer has only just begun even though it is warm.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland
Since no one even dares to think the unthinkable, Putin can still puzzle with this as best he wants – THERE IS NO THRESHOLD TO TRIP OVER AND NO TRIPWIRE TO WRAP YOURSELF IN.
We know for sure that RU intends to mobilize in early autumn and in 2022 it made a difference in a few months.
Lukashenko is under great pressure to project a threat to his neighborhood, war has never been intended for Belarus and the meeting with Putin was to avoid shutting down the relay stations for the drones.
Putin probably threatened with invasion so Luka went over to Xi to pour out his heart, and China tried to be the adult in the room. THAT is a positive in this context.
Exactly what will happen lies with Putin but you can safely assume that RU will escalate it.
—
Everything is always relative, right?
“Russia has not built up any capability at all against the Baltics” vs “there is not a single international soldier between Rezekne and Tartu” are two examples. There are no Balts there either because they have to mobilize first. Probably the border protection is in the hundreds and the area is completely open to infiltration that can reach the mob depots in Rezekne and Võru where the Estonians’ and Latvians’ defense for the area will try to mobilize. Their mobile brigades will defend the Daugavpils/Riga and Tallinn areas. They must also have coup defense, mobile reserves and all that reduces the available units.
The Baltics’ Maginot line has not been built. It is now fully drawn and they have finished arguing about the thickness of the bunker walls, but it is not finished built. North of Tartu there is some but the area between Tartu – Rezekne is completely unfortified.
There is also enormous subversive activity in the countries already which they try to fight off as best they can.
This will be an interesting year, some things I guess one must resign oneself to never understand – for example why the USA allowed the Shia militias from surrounding countries into Tehran and above all why we REFUSE to send in defensive forces into the Baltics who spend the summer mining the border area in SE Estonia and NE Latvia.
To me this is COMPLETELY incomprehensible and borderline official misconduct, at least a reprimand should be given to those who follow them through life 😡
—
The sanctions against the shadow fleet also seem to be going really well 😡
A ship that the entire West has full sanctions on passed Denmark full of Russian dirty oil and the only ones trying to follow the ship are Greenpeace 😭😭😭
Nice that Greenpeace is involved, have always liked them a lot 👍👍
https://theins.press/en/news/294292
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The aluminum transports from Ireland to Russia via either sanctioned ships or our ships are also still going completely unhindered to date. Huge amounts have been exported to RU throughout the war.
—
The shadow fleet – they are cheap ships so sacrificial anodes or what?
They travel daily via Fehmarn Belt and Øresund so one “accident” away from blocking the fairways and then NO ONE can get new capability into the Baltic Sea no matter how much the USA wants to.
The US Marines practiced landing on Saaremaa this spring but then they have to get into the Baltic Sea first I think?
We are clearly preparing to respond proportionally but reactively, what we are not doing at all is identifying weak points in our plans and working around them.
—
Here you have a worthwhile article that has done its homework – very good and in line with how we have discussed over time I think?
They have probably stolen everything from the threads.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/jun/27/nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks-trump-eastern-europe
Well, I saw that the Germans had backed off when the Russian drove forward a frigate.
That alone should be a reason to be a bit more active in stopping all ships that do not have a military escort. They can’t escort everyone.
Unfortunately, there is quite a lot I need to finish before it’s time for vacation.
Regarding image uploading.
1. It is not available to everyone yet (and probably won’t be), but if you want that option, just let me know. If they are a recurring commenter, I dare to allow it.
2. A prerequisite for it to work is that you use the advanced text editor.
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Whatever you do for the country’s survival, do not give Dengamle that opportunity 👍
National security
Oh no, what a shame if something were to happen there. Maybe it’s time to take out insurance?
Perhaps UAF can offer one?
They are probably doing this very well within range 😀
Then 60% of the Russian gas is stopped.
There will be no heating this winter, for example.
So not the heat that covered you, nice to hear I was starting to get worried 👍
Following New York with great interest.
They have among the country’s largest concentrations of high earners, and now the mayor has “balanced the budget” with a large loan from the state and frozen pensions.
Then it seems that the deficit is increasing, so at first glance it looks like it is starting to decline?
The reason I follow New York specifically is because the mayor ran on a platform that everything would get better for everyone, you can google the promises. Daycare, healthcare, housing, public spaces, and all that.
My suspicion is that high earners or those with capital will leave the city and state of New York, and then the tax base will plummet. I don’t know if it has started, but that could very well be the reason why he is struggling to get costs to match revenues?
The first lesson is that it is always good to understand who, which people, or how it is that pays the bill, and that it takes decades to build a prosperous country or city. Now conditions are constantly changing, everyone probably remembers the video stores that were the children’s central point (if they also had candy) and then Netflix came along, so you have to keep up a bit. Not all countries can stand at the top of the pyramid at the same time just as not all citizens can have the same amount of money.
Lesson two, which also applies to us in Europe – it is easy to move.
—
Going forward, we will see –
– did the economically weak get better?
– does the welfare system work better as promised?
– did New York get better?
—
What I also think I see in, for example, the UK, from PIIGS 2008 and other examples is that you can mismanage for a long time, one or two terms, but when it tips over it happens lightning fast.
If you are a person or party that promises more to everyone and to tax the rich, it is attractive – I also want a four-day workweek and six hours at full pay and I also don’t like those who have managed to become rich when I myself am not. What I don’t quite trust is that I will not have to pay higher taxes/costs to finance the good things and that the labor market remains strong. The absolutely easiest to tax in a country are middle-income earners with salaries and housing.
New York is interesting because they are trying to move towards European-style socialism – there are not many examples of such a turnaround and whether it gets better or worse is a good lesson for everyone to take in, I think.
It is much easier to go from a social democratic welfare society to a capitalist society with large gaps than the other way around. It is almost impossible, as the rich move away, and the middle class is not large enough to pay the bill with taxes. And probably those who want to raise taxes will be voted out in the next election.
In the USA, where healthcare is private, and prices are based on what insurance companies can pay, healthcare has become so expensive that there is not enough money in the tax coffers to move to a system similar to the one we have here in the Nordics.
In the future is probably 10-20 years, and as long as (d) is unlikely to have power in NY, the experiment is doomed to fail.
The Yellow Wall was very worth reading today, thank you for that.
There is probably quite a lot of knowledge about modern warfare here in the Nordics as well. I was pleasantly surprised when I read the latest Tekniikan Maailmaa (Teknikens Värld but in Finnish). They had an article about a Finnish company that manufactures equipment for drone tracking, jamming, and interceptors. They started in 2016 for the civilian market, then almost went bankrupt in 2020, but have now quadrupled the number of employees in one year, and multiplied their turnover many times over.
The latest innovation is a camera system that detects movement (can track a bullet), both in light and darkness, and can almost immediately report what is coming and estimate where it is headed.
Portable radio jamming systems for virtually all frequencies, with an open frequency for own communication, are also included in the repertoire.
They have a couple of hundred detection systems in Ukraine and continuously receive information about which updates are needed, etc.
Company | Sensofusion
🇫🇮👍Exciting!
DN: Russia closes border crossings.
Interesting 🧐
Something going on?
Early mobilization?
Which border crossings?
On Wednesday Russia closed railway crossings to Finland, Estonia, and Latvia for all passenger, freight, and goods traffic
“
The closed border crossings may indicate a large-scale mobilization.
– Russia needs more soldiers for the war in Ukraine and this is a way to force people into the army. When the borders are closed, it signals to the people that they cannot escape.”
Thank you
“Russia asks Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan to close their borders to Russia.
Mobilization on the way.
Soon the black August will come.
According to information from a source, the Kremlin has held secret talks with the leadership in several neighboring countries (primarily Kazakhstan, to a lesser extent Georgia, possibly Azerbaijan and others) about a temporary closure of entry and exit from Russia during the autumn of 2026.
Russia itself will not close the borders — officially everything will remain open. The closure will be organized by those neighboring countries on their side: “technical problems,” “increased control,” “exercises,” or “sanitary measures.” In this way, it will be extremely difficult or practically impossible to leave Russia during the relevant period.
The purpose is to ensure the implementation of some form of major “event” inside the country under maximum isolation from the outside world and with minimal outflow of population/specialists.
So far, this is just unconfirmed information, but several independent contacts in the border regions have begun to hint at “unpleasant surprises” in logistics already from September-October.
___
Post #711, July 1, 2026.
The spy’s diary”
https://x.com/ilvestoomas/status/2072390680186368259?s=46
President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of an impending massive Russian strike, stating that he received “very troubling” intelligence regarding a new large-scale attack on Ukraine.
Zelensky made the statement during a joint press conference with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, where they had met alongside European Council President António Costa to discuss Ukraine’s EU path ahead of Ireland’s upcoming EU presidency.
Video: President Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram.
https://youtube.com/shorts/FH1qMJvYN7Y?is=X9FHwxWFuD2qwSyD
Russia has heavily attacked Ukraine’s capital Kyiv during the night, reports Kyiv Independent. At least ten people have died and about 30 are injured, according to Kyiv’s military chief Tymur Tkatjenko and the city’s mayor Vitali Klitschko.
The city’s residents were urged on Wednesday evening to seek shelter, and many Kyiv residents had to sleep in the city’s subway and shelters.
The Russian attacks, carried out with drones and missiles, destroyed residential buildings, a hotel, and images show a high-rise building on fire. Local authorities have reported damage at at least 28 locations. But the extent of the attacks is still unclear.
During the night, air raid sirens were also heard in several parts of the country, including the cities of Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Russian military was planning a large-scale attack on Ukraine.
https://omni.se/a/6qlE5Q
Good morning!
1140 KWIA
5 AFVs
57 Artillery systems
7 MLRS
2123 UAVs
9 UGVs
353 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
7 Special equipment
1 Cruise missile
Slava Ukraini