Ukraine attacked Belgorod during the night while Russia in turn attacked Odesa – Russian losses

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Belgorod
During the night, Ukraine has carried out extensive attacks on Belgorod, and fires have been reported from several locations. So far, there is not much information about the attacks. What is known is that several residential buildings have been damaged and set on fire, and one of the targets appears to have been an FSB headquarters. More information at Kyiv Independent.

Odesa
Russia attacked Odesa during the night, and six people were injured; several high-rise buildings were also hit and caught fire. Read more here.

No to Starlink
Zelensky has asked Trump to put pressure on Elon Musk to allow Ukraine to use Starlink in attacks inside Russia. The purpose is to facilitate attacks on Russian missile launch sites, among other targets. Trump has not given any indication whether he intends to do so, and Elon Musk does not seem inclined to change his mind. Read more at Kyiv Post.

The West once again trips up Ukraine
Ukraine has successfully attacked ships in the Sea of Azov. I don’t recall exactly how many they attacked offhand, but it is significantly more than one hundred. Today, only about one-tenth of the ships remain compared to before Ukraine started its operation. Of course, not all ship traffic goes through the Sea of Azov, but part of the purpose has probably been to disrupt logistics to Crimea besides sabotaging Russia’s exports.
The attacks have likely led Russia to intensify its attacks on Odesa and attacks on civilian transport ships. Therefore, transports from Ukraine have started going through Romania. Of course, this is not the first time Russia has attacked Ukrainian ports and ship transports. For Ukraine, the next natural step is, of course, to also start attacking ships in the Black Sea. There we have a significantly larger share of civilian ships.

Now that Ukraine has been so successful, the West once again says no.
Zelenskyy has not specified who it is, but a “partner” has apparently demanded that only Russian-owned ships may be attacked. I do not have information on the distribution, but it is probably significantly more ships that are not flagged in Russia than those that are. Considering Russia’s attacks on civilian ships, it is insane to demand one side to limit attacks. At the same time, I actually don’t think Ukraine intended to attack civilian ships indiscriminately either.

It is unclear if it was Turkey that made the demand initially, but they have at least openly urged both Russia and Ukraine to refrain from attacking ships in the Black Sea. Read more here.

I can agree to that proposal provided both sides comply.
Basically, I believe civilian ships should be exempt from attacks as long as they are not carrying military equipment. If one side actually wants to stop all traffic, they should openly announce that they have established a blockade. That does not give the right to directly sink ships trying to break the blockade; however, if they are warned to turn back and warned of the consequences and still refuse, boarding or direct attacks may become relevant. Despite lacking a navy, Ukraine could declare a blockade, but the question is whether they want to. The risk is losing support from countries that still trade with Russia.

Russian losses

  • 1130 KWIA
  • 2 Tanks
  • 4 AFVs
  • 41 Artillery systems
  • 4 MLRS
  • 1642 UAVs
  • 9 UGVs
  • 358 Vehicles & fuel tanks
  • 1 Special equipment

Ukrainian General Staff summary

  • 231 combat clashes
  • 75 air strikes
  • 269 KAB/CAB
  • 10,284 kamikaze drones
  • 3,137 shelling

SLAVA UKRAINI

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130 thoughts on “Ukraine attacked Belgorod during the night while Russia in turn attacked Odesa – Russian losses”

  1. MXT

    * * ❗️On the night of Aug 9, Russia attacked Odesa region with missiles (Iskander, Onyx, Kh-31P) and 202 UAVs. Air defenses downed/suppressed 174 UAVs and 5 Banderols. Hits at 22 sites, debris at 6; some missiles missed targets.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ **
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3msmuvuwwwk2s

  2. Pehr

    Good morning.
    Belgian Drylock Technologies continues its operations in the Russian economic zone Alabuga, a well-known hub for drone manufacturing, despite EU sanctions requiring exit by January 25, 2026. The company is seeking an exemption from the sanctions, and its Russian subsidiary has published pro-Russian posts on social media.
    https://kyivindependent.com/belgian-company-seeks-exception-to-keep-operating-in-russias-drone-hub-as-it-does-so-anyway/

    1. MXT

      Good morning!

      Bad of the EU not to force them to comply with the sanctions. Tougher measures are needed, otherwise the actions will be toothless. Unfortunately, there is no company that ordinary people can start boycotting, otherwise it might have been possible to launch such a campaign.

      1. Pehr

        Really bad, not least by the Belgian government.
        Agree with PushToLeave, the app has deterred quite a few potential purchases.
        Use it, good people.

    2. Umlaut

      If they break the sanctions, they will be relentlessly punished! Freeze all their assets until they cease activities in Russia, after which they can regain access minus a number of millions of euros in fines.

      As a warning and deterrent.

      2. MXT

        Agreed. It absolutely has to start costing to do business with Russia. Russia costs Europe enormous amounts of money beyond the support for Ukraine; it’s time to make everyone understand that it is neither sustainable nor acceptable to benefit them.

    3. CB500four

      Feels like the Belgians have a bit of a hard time staying on the right side. When it came to the Russian frozen assets, it was probably threats against the responsible minister and family that played a role, or maybe it was the president.

  3. Pehr

    💥💥💥

    “Once again, the Russian company Wildberries’ premises have been attacked by Ukrainian drones, several media outlets report.
    Early on Friday morning, the company’s logistics hub in Yekaterinburg was attacked. Wildberries states on Telegram that a fire broke out in the premises but that it was extinguished without any major material damage.
    The Russian e-commerce company is often compared to the American Amazon. Over the past three weeks, Ukraine has targeted the company with its drones as part of a campaign to make ordinary Russians see the war on their home ground.”

    https://omni.se/a/XMal07

  7. MXT

    ** 🇪🇺 Former high-ranking officials of Germany, France and the US call for transferring 210 billion euros of frozen Russian assets under the management of a new EU structure, – FAZ The three politicians gave several reasons why this should be done:

    ♦️There is currently a “window of opportunity”, Putin’s war has reached a dead end, and such a decision will strengthen Ukraine;

    ♦️The 2027 elections may bring leaders who are less sympathetic to Ukraine (in particular, French presidential elections);

    ♦️The US and Russia planned to transfer part of these funds to the restoration of Ukraine, and the other part to their “projects”. Transferring funds under control of new EU structure would protect them from Putin and Trump;

    ♦️This step will also allow Belgium to no longer fear threats from Russia. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3msmzx2cklc2b

    1. Kons

      Unfortunately, only former officials. I’m afraid current officials and politicians will drag their feet, dilute, slow down, be cowardly, or simply bury their heads in the sand.

    3. CB500four

      What also plays a role is how we now respond to Russia’s hybrid warfare.

      If decision-makers feel that Europe cannot protect its leaders, Russian threats against leaders and their families will work as planned. It is therefore important that we can detect and take down drones, and that we respond forcefully to these provocations.

    1. MXT

      Good review! Despite his argument that the winter may be tough, I believe he is right that Ukraine could gain a significant advantage in 2027 if they start producing their own ballistic missiles, and possibly even their own replacement for the Patriot.

      Furthermore, there is hope that Gripen and Meteor can greatly reduce the presence of Russian bombers so that the number of KABs will decrease. Then Russia will also lose an advantage when it comes to the fronts.

  10. MXT

    Let’s see if this can get the UN and others to react.

    Omni can’t help but end by quoting AFP where they try to imply that Ukraine is behaving just as badly as Russia.

    “Five people have been killed in last night’s attacks between Russia and Ukraine, report several media outlets.

    Russia attacked Ukraine with 202 drones and seven ballistic missiles. In the attacks, two were killed and dozens injured. Also, one of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) warehouses in Ukraine was hit, writes the UN agency’s head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on X.

    ‘I cannot say this loudly enough. Attacks on healthcare must stop,’ he writes.

    In Russian Belgorod, three people died when Ukraine attacked with drones. AFP writes that both countries are escalating their long-range attacks, leading to more and more civilian deaths.”
    https://omni.se/fem-doda-i-nya-attacker-mellan-ukraina-och-ryssland/a/8pxB9d

    1. Pehr

      Hope can and should one. Unfortunately, I have little hope that the UN, WHO, or other organizations will react/act.

      I occasionally write to journalists and point out if I think they have bias. I subscribe to several news media, and they depend on someone paying.

    2. Umlaut

      Seen some British newspaper, I think it was The Independent, repeatedly pushing the dead Russian civilians on the beach in Gelendzhik, without mentioning a word that the drone crashed there because Russian air defense shot down the drone over a bathing area.

  11. MXT

    Off-Topic, El Niño

    Early forecasts have long indicated that we might experience a so-called super El Niño this year, but now measurement data, both regarding high sea temperatures and atmospheric conditions, point to the fact that we already have an ongoing El Niño and that the likelihood is now high that it will be one of the strongest in many years.

    “Food prices risk becoming higher in Swedish stores because the weather phenomenon El Niño is expected to be the strongest in a very long time. This says Swedbank’s chief forecaster Andreas Wallström to TT.

    Among other things, coffee harvests are expected to be affected. Inflation may also increase in the long term, according to Wallström.

    – Looking ahead to 2027, there is a risk that the Riksbank will feel forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation, he says.

    This, in turn, could negatively affect the Swedish krona exchange rate.

    El Niño is expected to be most noticeable this autumn, from August to October. The weather phenomenon is expected to persist until spring.”

    https://omni.se/varsta-el-nino-pa-aratal-svenska-matpriser-kan-oka/a/Gx5Qyl

    High sea temperatures are a prerequisite for El Niño, and the image below shows how it has developed during previous years when there was a strong El Niño. As the chart shows, the temperature has risen sharply this year since May. It can, of course, still stabilize before October-December when it is normally at its highest and also has the greatest impact, but if it continues at the same pace as up to June (and there is nothing directly speaking against that), it will probably surpass the years shown here.

    There are not yet any final data for July, but early reports point to +1.73 to +2.1, and if this proves correct, the temperature in July has already reached the level that was seen in August to September 1997.
    2023/24 is an example of a weaker El Niño.

    The effects of El Niño are difficult to predict, although they partly follow a certain pattern. Here is a simplified overview of the most recent occurrences:

    • 1982/83 – Extreme rain in Peru/Ecuador; drought in Australia/Indonesia; stormy/wet winter in California
    • 1997/98 – Catastrophic floods in Peru/Ecuador and East Africa; enormous drought/fires in Indonesia
    • 2015/16 – Severe drought and crop failures in southern/eastern Africa; Indonesia dry; surprisingly little rain in southern California
    • 2023/24 – Extreme global heat; very severe drought in southern Africa and parts of South America

    It does not affect the globe uniformly nor all agricultural areas, but some years see combinations of extreme drought in some places and extreme precipitation in others. Such a combination can then together strongly impact the availability of agricultural products with rising prices worldwide.
    It is therefore not surprising that warnings are already being issued about the risk of high food prices.

    At the same time, of course, it is worst in the regions affected.
    2015/16 When Ethiopia was hit hard, it was not only the crops but also livestock that perished, and over 10 million people suffered from famine and needed aid from the outside world.

    Sweden and the Nordic countries and also Europe are affected much less by El Niño; we are more dependent on the Gulf Stream, polar vortices, and other factors. What has been observed is that in the Nordic region, the risk slightly increases for a milder start to winter, but a colder late winter. Should other weather phenomena move in the same direction and interact, it could together with El Niño cause an extremely cold winter or at least very cold periods, but it could also be that we do not notice it at all.

    The El Niño phenomenon is believed to have existed for at least 11,000 to 18,000 years (which has been determined, among other methods, through studies of corals and sediments), but that is only based on what has been observed. It could be much older than that. It is therefore not a new phenomenon or something that has arisen due to recent climate change but is part of the Earth’s normal climate system.

    However, researchers largely agree that climate change still has an impact. High sea temperatures are a prerequisite for El Niño to occur, and higher temperatures also affect its intensity, which of course is linked to a rising global average temperature.

    1. Pehr

      Hopefully we are better prepared nowadays, but there is talk that this one could even surpass the most extreme and deadly super-El Niño ever recorded in history. The event of 1877–1878.
      This historic super-El Niño triggered a global climate disaster with extreme drought and crop failures that led to widespread famine in, among other places, India, China, and Brazil. The disaster claimed over 50 million lives, which corresponded to about 3–4 percent of the global population at the time. The sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean is estimated to have reached a record anomaly of around 2.7 °C above normal during this period.

      1. MXT

        We are probably significantly better prepared, especially when it comes to the ability to redistribute resources. We probably also have better solutions when it comes to fertilization, etc.

        At the same time, there are many more of us now than then, and if a sufficiently large part of agriculture is affected, it will of course still lead to crises in several areas.

      2. Pehr

        Checked with Google AI:

        During the super-El Niño of 1877–1878, individual exact absolute readings (such as today’s 50°C records) were not recorded in the same way, because the global network of measuring stations in the 19th century was limited. However, extreme regional temperature deviations (anomalies) and historical extremes were measured across the planet.
        What made this event extreme was the combination of extreme heat in some regions and unusual cold in others.
        The extreme heat records
        The most remarkable temperatures involved persistent and extremely high heat combined with drought:
        Tropical Pacific Ocean: The warmest surface water ever calculated in modern times. Areas in the central Pacific fluctuated between 3.0 °C and 3.5 °C above normal during the peak of the event.
        North America (“The Year Without Winter”): Parts of the USA and Canada experienced their most extreme heat anomaly in history during the winter of 1877–1878. In parts of Minnesota and the American prairies, winter temperatures were locally 6 °C to 8 °C above the normal average. Lakes that normally freeze over in November remained completely ice-free throughout the winter.
        North Atlantic: Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic broke records and reached the warmest levels ever recorded up to that point, intensifying drought over Africa.
        India and South Asia: The monsoon failed completely. The combination of extremely strong sunshine, lack of rain, and persistent heat created one of the driest and hottest periods in Asia in 800 years.
        The extreme cold records
        While El Niño warmed large parts of the world, atmospheric blockages led to extreme cold in other regions:
        China and Central Asia: While southern Asia suffered from drought, icy polar air masses descended over northern China during the winters of 1877 and 1878. This created devastating cold that, combined with drought, completely destroyed the crops.
        Kashmir and the Himalayan region: The winter of 1877 saw Kashmir hit by one of its worst cold and snow disasters in history. Extremely low temperatures combined with snowfall that buried entire towns and decimated livestock.
        Southern ocean latitudes: Before the El Niño broke out in early 1877, a historically prolonged and extremely cool period was recorded in the tropical parts of the Pacific Ocean (1870–1876). This sudden shift from prolonged cold to extreme heat was one of the main reasons the weather phenomenon became so powerful.

        2. maggan

          Matches well with what my buddy who is a meteorologist says. There are no statistical correlations with the weather in Europe. However, the chance of blocking weather conditions increases.

    2. CB500four

      Was on a business trip in Ecuador in ’98, and there they had temporary bridges over many rivers as the bridges had been washed away during the floods. The summer and autumn of ’98 were warm here in our area.

      The winter of ’99 was damn cold, I remember bouncing off to work in my old Mazda with frozen seats and shock absorbers, even the tires had frozen flat. It was around -41 then.

      The winters of ’84, ’85 were also cold, but not as much as the winter of ’87.

      3. CB500four

        Fortunately, it was only a few days that it was super cold, the Finnish cold record was -51.5.

        For several weeks it was -30, the moped was hard to start, and it was cold all the way into summer. The birches got leaves the same week I was at confirmation camp at the beginning of June.

    3. maggan

      ”El Niño causes us to have an extremely cold winter or at least really cold periods, but at the same time it can also be that we don’t notice it at all.”

      Talk about covering all bases.

      I predict that the war in Ukraine will end this year, or next year, it could also take longer or go on forever.
      100% chance that I’m right!

      1. MXT

        It is about as difficult to make an assessment of how our winter will be as to guess when the war will end.

        I prefer to be honest when there is high uncertainty rather than claim that it will be one way or the other.

        El Niño increases the likelihood of colder late winters but it does not lead to that every time, and sometimes it has instead resulted in milder winters.

        Of course, you can call it hedging if you want, but I do not intend to claim how it will be. There is no one who can make such a forecast with any certainty, if someone does it anyway, it is nothing to pay attention to.

         

    4. johan No.1

      Doesn’t El Nino cause changes in the weather all over the planet?

      People are used to a certain type of weather and have built infrastructure and routines around it.

      Then the desert gets rain and agricultural areas dry out, and everything in between?

      A cold winter for us if we have power shortages or soaring prices is directly bad, so this year we will certainly be affected.

       

      1. CB500four

        Yes, it is already being written that there will be high electricity prices in the autumn, due to low levels in the hydropower reservoirs in SE and NO, and if the gas reserves are not filled before autumn, it will probably be expensive.

      2. MXT

        El Niño affects the globe, but simply put, the farther away you are from the tropics and partly the farther you are from the equator, the less likely it is to have an impact.

        The tropics are the area most affected, but it is not so simple that the effect gradually diminishes from there. This depends, among other things, on how ocean currents and jet streams, etc., behave. It is quite chaotic and can appear random.

        Spots or streaks often arise where drought, precipitation, etc., occur.

        The same place that often experiences, for example, drought can another time receive precipitation, or lower or higher temperatures than normal.

        Regarding the cold, the so-called polar vortex is sometimes affected, so instead of rotating gently around the North Pole, it breaks up, and then really cold streaks can reach far south, but this does not happen every time, and when it does, there is great variation from barely noticeable to really cold.

        1997/98 was a mixed winter but quite normal.

        2015/16 we had essentially a mild winter despite El Niño, although there was a really cold period in January.

        2023/24 was abnormally cold in the central and northern halves of Sweden.

  12. MXT

    Ukraine struck down an S-400 air defense system overnight in Gelendzhik in the Krasnodar region, not far from what is called Putin’s palace on the Black Sea coast. This was reported by Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s drone forces, according to the Moscow Times. “For three hours the S-400 position in Gelendzhik, on the coast, right next to the catacombs, burned and smoldered,” the commander writes on Telegram, where he is better known under the username Madjar. What has come to be called Putin’s palace is his complex on the Black Sea coast where, according to an investigation by the now deceased opposition politician Alexei Navalny, he can among other things enjoy his own restaurant, ice rink, church, and amphitheater.

  13. MXT

    Russian soldiers who die in Ukraine are largely declared as absent without leave or deserters to save money for the Russian state. This is suspected by relatives and human rights activists interviewed by Radio Free Europe. When a Russian soldier is killed in combat, their relatives back home in Russia are entitled to sums that can amount to nearly two million kronor. Financial incentives are a strong contributing factor to why so many Russian men agree to fight in Putin’s invasion, but there is a concern that many of them are cheated after death. A human rights activist states that 95 percent of all cases where soldiers are declared deserters are actually dead, which saves the Russian state large amounts of money. – Deep down, I hope that my husband is being held as a prisoner of war, but I understand that he is probably dead […] The commander even admitted that my husband was out on a combat mission and had nowhere to go, says Larisa, whose husband has been missing since December.

    https://omni.se/a/5ponjK

  14. MXT

    Off-Topic

    Damn! They should hand out free Nose Plugs to everyone nearby.

    “It has been a stinking summer in parts of Los Angeles, writes BBC. On June 17, there was a fire in a cold storage warehouse in Boyle Heights in the eastern parts of the metropolis. Nearly 40,000 tons of food were stored there, including meat, fish, and seafood that have since been rotting under the California sun. – It smells bad, really bad. So bad that you want to vomit, says security guard Mesha who works at a nearby cannabis shop. The company that ran the warehouse says that on Monday they had transported away 80 percent of the food, but from the mayor’s office they criticize the company for not having done a better job. BBC’s reporter describes it as impossible to be near the partially burned warehouse without having to push through a sea of flies that are large, small, black, blue, and green.”

    https://omni.se/a/n1Vw9J

      2. MXT

        It smells like money, as my late father used to jokingly say when he consulted at the Korsnäs pulp mill.

        There are a few days each year when the factory has problems and the wind is blowing the wrong way, it can smell quite a bit. But it has gotten better, I don’t even remember the last time it happened. Luckily, we have high standards for emissions!

        Otherwise, many who pass by train usually associate Gävle with Skutskär and the pulp mill located there, and you can often smell the scents from the train. It has also gotten better since they rerouted the track, which used to be very close.

        1. johan No.1

          Our holiday home in Portugal has a paper mill quite a long distance away, but a few times a year the winds are favorable and it doesn’t smell good at all.

          I always get blamed before people remember that it’s the paper mill 😭😭

        2. Proxima

          The last years of my professional life I worked on the railway, including in Gävle. We loaded containers in Granudden (Korsnäs) to deliver to Fredriksskans, Gävle container terminal. There was a doubtful smell in Granudden but on the way down to Fredriksskans we passed Gevalia. And there it smelled wonderful.

          1. MXT

            👍

            Yes, Granudden is quite close to the factory, so it probably doesn’t smell that nice there.

            On two different occasions over the years, I have had my workplace in two different warehouses on Alderholmen (as it was called at the time). Gevalia is located right next to that area, and sometimes the smell from the coffee production was absolutely wonderful.

            It has been a long time since I last smelled that scent because I rarely am within smelling distance.

    2. Umlaut

      I who hate the smell of cannabis. Reminds me of rancid BBQ-marinated pork being grilled. That and round shellfish, fish, and meat 🤢

       

       

       

       

  15. MXT

    The drone attack on Leipzig airport this week is just the latest in a long series, warns the country’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt in an interview with Bild. – We are daily targets of hybrid warfare. Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert operations from foreign powers aimed at destabilizing or directly harming Germany are a constant reality, he says. Dobrindt has earlier this week said that the incident in Leipzig, where a bomb-equipped drone attempted to attack a Ukrainian cargo plane, was probably orchestrated by a state actor without naming anyone specific. Experts and analysts simultaneously confidently directed their suspicions towards the Kremlin.

    https://omni.se/a/k0B3Xj

  16. johan No.1

    Have you noticed that it has been quite a while since the UA fought St Petersburg and the Baltic Sea ports?

    Coincidence or not 🧐

    They flew the drones in through the Baltics for a while, if you remember.

     

    3. MXT

      Maybe it’s because they had some problems with drones that ended up in the wrong place. You don’t really want to drone your friends even if it’s because the Russians jammed them, or technical problems.

      I guess they will refine their technology and make new attempts. There are also so many other interesting targets.

      By the way, I’m waiting for them to make some attempts against oil pipelines and drilling rigs, so they also hit the source and not just refineries and depots.

      Now it’s far away and a few rigs might not affect much, but pipelines in the winter could probably cause trouble.

    1. Umlaut

      Even mammon is the greatest god among fundamentalist Islamists. 💰 Just think about how the Russians have killed the local population (primarily Sunni Muslims) in Syria.

  20. johan No.1

    I often post in the evening your time or at night.

    Do you read them or should I stick to this time?

    Referring to the comments in the thread.

    1. Pehr

      Post whenever it suits you. 👍
      The vacation is almost over now, so reading time will probably return to morning and evening. In other words, you can catch up on the night’s posts.

    2. MXT

      Usually read the day after, however, it does not happen that often to comment then in the yesterday thread.

      As Pehr writes, comment whenever it suits you!

  21. johan No.1

    This could not happen according to virtually everyone?

    Moreover, there is a group that has the weapons and the experience to do exactly that.

  23. Pehr

    **APPLEBAUM: The idea that Russia could stage some form of attack against NATO has now been around for a while.

    Putin must either be very desperate, or reckless, or very wrong. He is constantly misled by people around him…
    …When Putin becomes more aggressive, people do not become more afraid, but more prepared.

    Putin was also obviously misled by people around him who said he would invade Ukraine and capture Kiev in three days.**

    https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3msnoox5zwk2e

  24. johan No.1

    Trump is probably looking for a dignified exit with Iran, and Israel is considering whether they can take down Iran on their own.

    Letting go now for Israel is suicide – their future is not promised at all.

    1. Pehr

      ”Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not as big a fan of the plan for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as Donald Trump is, several media outlets report.
      The plan has been developed by the American president’s so-called peace council and consists of 15 points.
      – Israel rejects the document with 15 points. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas has truly been disarmed and will continue to counter threats against our forces and our citizens, Netanyahu said at a government meeting.”
      https://omni.se/a/wrV8kP

    3. CB500four

      Iran probably won’t open Hormuz until the US agrees to their demands; it will surely be an even worse deal than last time.

      Israel has probably found itself in a difficult position, with an Iran that has been strengthened by Trump’s wars—not necessarily militarily, as much has been bombed to pieces, but morally; they now know they can control Hormuz and that they can bomb the US’s allies.

      Iran knows that the US has sent so much firepower their way that they are running out, which means Israel also doesn’t have as much access to American weapons as before.

      Trump wants to get out of the region; he promised to withdraw the US from “forever wars” in the Middle East.

      Trump is not on good terms with Netanyahu and will blame the failure on someone; other than Biden and Europe, it will probably be Netanyahu.

      If Iran strengthens and the US weakens in the region, it will be tough for Israel. There is a risk that the Muslim countries in the region will unite (temporarily, since Sunni and Shia have their internal conflict) and try to solve the Israeli problem once and for all, and then it will be worse than when Saladin took Jerusalem. However, Iran will not come out unscathed either, since Israel, when it sees its existence threatened, will likely destroy Tehran and some other city with the nuclear weapons they officially do not have.

      1. fedtmule

        You are absolutely right that the Iranian regime feels strengthened by not having been overthrown and that the US does not seem able to achieve any of its strategic goals in the foreseeable future.
        Just as you point out, the hostility between Islam’s two main branches is significant.

        However, I do not believe that any of Israel’s Sunni-dominated neighboring countries will join forces with Iran, as the Palestinian issue no longer holds the significance it did a few decades ago.
        Likewise, the hostility between the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, is deep due to historical and multifaceted reasons.
        You are also correct that Israel, in the face of a serious risk of annihilation, will not hesitate to annihilate Tehran; it is certain that they will not be satisfied with just one population center in Iran but will target several others across much of the Middle East.
        It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia also acquires its own nuclear weapons, but these will primarily not be to deter Israel, rather to counter the future nuclear threat from their arch-enemy Iran.

  25. Pehr

    Jahåsåråatt

    “A forest fire has broken out in Haninge south of Stockholm, reports Aftonbladet.
    According to the police, the area burning is approximately 80 by 80 meters.
    – There have been several private drones in the area, we have been there and ensured that they do not interfere with the rescue service, says Marcus Björling, press spokesperson for the Stockholm police region, to Expressen.
    Two helicopters are participating in the firefighting efforts.
    The text is being updated.”
    https://omni.se/a/rrVWyK

    2. johan No.1

      No one other than Russia has an interest in creating forest fires here except maybe Iran – but Sweden is probably not on Iran’s radar at the moment.

      Russia ranks us almost highest among threats to them now as we are at the top in supporting Ukraine.

      If drones were involved, it is definitely something beyond spontaneous combustion.

      A caveat – do all newspapers use drones now to get good footage, I don’t know?

      The drones could also provide good information on how the fires spread, and evidently in Europe, the Russians have learned a bit about pyromania from before.

      1. MXT

        It would be interesting if someone observed drones before the fire started. That would immediately make it seriously suspicious.

        It is probably quite common for newspapers to use drones, but most likely it is private drone owners who want to take some cool footage.

        But it cannot be ignored that it was deliberately set, and as mentioned, if a drone had been seen from the beginning…

         

      2. maggan

        A thrown lit cigarette butt attracts less attention. Seems like overkill to light it with a drone when it is super easy to do it manually almost invisibly.

  27. MXT

    Off-Topic 

    In a ding-ding world, the president of the world’s most powerful country is arguing via social media with a judge about a failed, and from the start completely unnecessary, fountain renovation.

    “The dispute over the renovated reflecting pool in Washington DC continues, writes The Hill. On Saturday, Donald Trump posted Truth Social images claiming to show how the surface had been vandalized with a knife. Last week, state prosecutor Jeanine Pirro dropped the charges against the individuals accused of vandalizing the reflecting pool. She stated that the contractor – who got the job without a tender after doing pool work at Trump’s golf clubs – did a poor job. This has made Trump furious at Pirro, a former Fox News host and Trump loyalist whom he personally handpicked. He urges her to retract her decision to acquit the accused. – She made a big mistake. I don’t understand why she did something so stupid, he said earlier this week.”

    https://omni.se/a/L4a1Op

  28. johan No.1

    Will return to Ireland and the IRA but they were disarmed and agreed to peace in 2005 and it is clearly not difficult for criminals to get hold of weapons in Europe today – one can probably rearm quite quickly and if they had an ounce of survival instinct they have buried a lot that was not handed over.

    Know-how definitely remains, 19 years is not a particularly long time and they have surely continued to associate with each other.

    I have read a bit about how they instead reorganized for drug trafficking and smuggling.

    They were a high-risk strategic threat that also threatened mainland England when they were at their most active.

    When Ireland recently had its general strike by citizens protesting what they saw as problems in society caused by high migration since around 2020, the government tried to deploy the army against them but the army refused – this has become a heated political after-discussion in Ireland.

    Ireland, just like England, has rolled out thought crimes where “it is not illegal but others may feel threatened”. The Met Police announced this year that they refused to continue with it as the HMF law merged with opinion/blasphemy crimes and the UK government imposed enormous penalties on top of that with several people going in for 2-4 years for Facebook posts. A legal interpretation that flagrantly violated freedom of speech laws and has been criticized by many different organizations in the UK.

    The measures were also highly subjective where some groups were allowed to say anything and others nothing at all, it is the same discussion we now have in Sweden where there is no equal treatment across the board.

    At the same time as about 6% of serious crimes are solved in the UK or something like that.

    Ireland consists of Northern Ireland and Ireland where the previous conflict was Catholics – Protestants with the point directed against England.

    Earlier this year Catholics – Protestants joined together with football groups and attempted civil disobedience against the government which at that time was at the level of vandalism and threats – they burned down new migrant accommodations before anyone had moved in and threatened the construction companies so they would not finish building.

    They have also thrown pig parts onto mosque construction sites as they managed to read that it is not allowed to build on contaminated land and people buy pigs or dogs as pets and walk around with them in public spaces – that is civil disobedience at that level, right?

    Now they have obviously felt that it did not lead to the desired result and have announced that there will be an ultimatum which will be followed up with violence and the ultimatum is broad – the migrants must take the boat over to England. You can be completely sure that it will hit just as broadly and unfairly.

    You can think what you want and many do not want to believe that a hybrid war is ongoing but when a country in Europe experiences something like this then there are good reasons for those in power to start thinking about what kind of politics they have pursued, in my opinion.

    In 2005 the previous conflict in Ireland was resolved and they have also become a prosperous country as they had favorable tax rates for companies so after Brexit 2016 it became a total migration for them in terms of prosperity.

    Then to come in six years to a point with a general strike, attempts to deploy the army and now a dormant movement that has been acutely troublesome for England since the 1960s is, to say the least, exciting – it should simply be impossible.

    To be continued, I cannot answer whether the IRA has any infiltration of Russian subversive activity but if this kicks off we can probably assume that there are groups in Europe taking notes and that it is a conflict area Russian subversive activity will wholeheartedly enter.

    Planning to delve deeper into this 😀

    I posted a video from a terrorism researcher who gave a speech in the EU some time ago which was received lukewarmly but he described the steps to civil war and if the IRA really starts up seriously Ireland is quite far along on his escalation ladder.

     

    1. MXT

      Analyses have been made where it was already seen in 2025 that Russia tried to influence. Whether they have also infiltrated New IRA (which is not the old IRA that has been revived but a newer smaller group that appeared in 2012) is probably harder to prove but absolutely not unlikely. Those on the farthest fringe usually tend to side with Russia anyway. Here in Sweden, we have AfS as an example, as well as AfD in Germany.

      But we will return to that after your post. 👍

      1. johan No.1

        I’m going to dive deep but one thing I can promise – if New IRA doesn’t have the blessing of the IRA, they won’t come out of the closet for trademark infringement 😀

        IRA is just a lightly sleeping dragon.

        I will also try to understand if this has the people’s support because the citizens do not want a new war with England.

        What I saw immediately is that they are religiously neutral and appeal to both Catholics and Protestants

        1. fedtmule

          The Northern Irish, whether they are loyalists or republicans, were, if I remember correctly, the most negatively inclined towards Brexit, as they really liked the advantages it brought of physically bordering another EU country.
          I remember that politicians on both sides of the Brexit spectrum were fairly united in the analysis that the risk was high that dissatisfaction with the consequences could drastically increase the likelihood of a reunification of Ireland without weapons, but through a referendum.

        2. CB500four

          Interesting, the IRA caused a lot of trouble in the 80s, but then it calmed down, and they devoted themselves to politics instead with Sinn Fein.

          It will be exciting to see what you find.

  29. MXT

    Oh, this was positive, then it has gone much faster than I had guessed.

    Then I will probably take it with a grain of salt and Zelenskyy himself also says that serial production may take longer. It also took longer than promised with the first Firepoints before they got the manufacturing going. But even if it would take another couple of months, it is really good.

    “Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirms that ballistic missiles manufactured by the Ukrainian company Fire Point are believed to be ready for combat within a couple of months, reports Kyiv Independent.– As for large-scale use, I cannot comment because some things do not depend on Ukraine. Just like with Russian ballistic missiles, some of our components come from other countries, he says on state TV. Earlier this week, Fire Point told Reuters that their missile type FP7 is currently being certified by the military. The FP9 missile, which can reach Moscow, is expected to be ready in late autumn.”

    https://omni.se/a/n1Vw6m

  30. MXT

    Off-Topic, the war in Iran

    “For several weeks, Donald Trump had been preparing to declare victory and end the Iran war if the Strait of Hormuz was opened, even without a nuclear deal, sources told the Wall Street Journal. That way out disappeared yesterday when Iran presented its longest list of demands yet to open the strait. In addition to a halt to the attacks, they demand, among other things, that the US lift its blockade, pay enormous war reparations, stop ‘threatening and insulting’ Iran, and refrain from all military operations against Iran’s allies in the region. Now Trump seems to have no way to withdraw from the war with dignity intact, according to experts WSJ has spoken with. – Iran is fully aware that Trump wants a way out and that his focus is on opening the strait. That is why they are very tough, says Mona Yacoubian, Middle East director at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.”

    https://omni.se/a/0pg46G

    1. fedtmule

      Considering that it is not the representatives of the Iranian regime who suffer from the consequences of the war, they have no objection to continuing to keep the US involved in the conflict to humiliate Trump and make him agonize properly ahead of the upcoming midterm elections according to “LexCarter”.

    3. CB500four

      Mm, Trump has to choose between backing down and signing a bad deal and portraying it as a victory or escalating, roughly the same options as his mentor in Russia has.

      We know what Putin chooses, but it is by no means certain that Trump will choose escalation, since he is (so far) not autocratic, and has a choice coming up.

  32. Pehr

    “ The Russian couple who were arrested while camping outside Gävle are locked up in the Migration Agency’s detention center. They are afraid of being deported to Russia because they have openly protested against the invasion of Ukraine since 2022, Semjon Rusanov tells SVT News via video.
    – We don’t know what would happen if we returned. It feels scary, to be completely honest, he says.
    The couple states that they have residence permits in Spain, where they have lived for five years, according to a representative of the Russian Anti-War Committee in Sweden on the independent Russian site Meduza.
    They are said to have been arrested because they were considered to be behaving suspiciously and posing a threat when they spoke Russian on a walkie-talkie and camped near what turned out to be a protected person’s house.
    The couple’s lawyer tells SVT that they have not been formally charged with any crime. The decision on detention has been appealed, and if they are deported and receive a re-entry ban, they plan to appeal that as well.”
    https://omni.se/a/Oka3xq

  33. johan No.1

    Ceuta is not over, many stayed and now a large citizen demonstration.

    Additionally, rumors of an attempt on August 15.

    Spain will probably have to make sure to solve this properly immediately.

  34. Pehr

    Article in SvD about the AfD in Germany.
    The usual Russian propaganda that Russia is a victim that must defend itself and that Maidan was a US-backed coup, topped off with the American biolabs, of course.
    I understand a German acquaintance who used to proclaim “build the wall again.” As a person of German descent, one feels ashamed.
    “The rain on the Bundesautobahn 9 is so persistent that the car 20 meters ahead is barely visible. So, no weather for bouncy castles and sausage grilling.

    But that is exactly what AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has promised. It will be a ‘family party,’ a relaxed occasion to get to know their top name Ulrich Siegmund.

    Admittedly, he is popular, with over 700,000 followers on TikTok. But the town of Zörbig has just over 8,000 inhabitants. Surely such an event can’t be very well attended on a day like this?

    Oh yes, as it turns out.

    When SvD arrives, the streets around the old organ factory, where the party is held, are packed with cars. Outside the entrance stand broad-shouldered men with tattoos and shaved heads.

    At the election meeting, sausages and a whole suckling pig are grilled.
    At the election meeting, sausages and a whole suckling pig are grilled. Photo: John Falkirk
    Inside the yard, it is packed. At one stand, a whole suckling pig is grilled, at another, sausages from Thuringia. Many drink beer from cups.

    Shortly after 11 o’clock, Ulrich Siegmund steps up onto a truck flatbed, to roaring applause.

    – Dear Zörbig, finally I get to be among reasonable people! he shouts.

    On September 6, there is an election in Saxony-Anhalt, a federal state in former East Germany, and also one of Germany’s poorest regions.

    Election results in Germany 2025
    Leading party in the second vote.

    SOURCE: GERMANY’S FEDERAL ELECTION AUTHORITY. GRAPHIC: LIV WIDELL
    AfD is by far the largest in opinion polls, and looks set to get just over 41 percent. But several other parties – such as the liberal FDP, the Social Democratic SPD, and the Green Party – may miss the 5-percent threshold, which would mean AfD gets an outright majority.

    It would be the first time since 1945 that a party classified as far-right rules a German federal state.

    – I quote Otto von Bismarck: a correct thought cannot be silenced in the long run. And that is exactly what we are doing, says Ulrich Siegmund from the flatbed.

    Siegmund, born in 1990 in Havelberg, resembles a real estate agent at afterwork in Berlin: tight, blue suit pants, white polo shirt, slicked side part, and a well-oiled smile.

    He is one of Germany’s most talked-about politicians. With the TikTok account Mutzurwahrheit90 (Courage for truth), he has become a name far beyond the borders of the federal state. He is also big on Instagram.

    On social media, Siegmund appears cheerful and down-to-earth. He says he is involved in politics for his daughter’s sake and that he likes to vacation in Greece. Not infrequently, he rides a Simson moped, a classic DDR symbol.

    But experts say that is just a front. AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as “confirmed far-right extremist” by the security service Verfassungsschutz (Office for the Protection of the Constitution).

    Micha and Nine work in the automotive industry. She used to vote for the Nazi party NPD, now for AfD. Ending the war with Russia is the most important issue.
    Micha and Nine work in the automotive industry. She used to vote for the Nazi party NPD, now for AfD. Ending the war with Russia is the most important issue. Photo: John Falkirk
    Siegmund himself was one of the participants at the far-right meeting in Potsdam in 2023, where plans for large-scale repatriation were discussed. The meeting led to nationwide protests, although parts of the reporting later proved to be exaggerated.

    – Siegmund presents himself as calm, but leads an AfD state association that is extremely radical, says Klaus Dörre, professor emeritus of sociology at Jena University, to SvD.

    As an example of the party being far-right, he mentions that they want to abolish the right of asylum and put children of asylum seekers in special schools.

    There is lively discussion in Germany about what would happen if AfD wins. Would there be major changes, a radical transformation of the state, or an anticlimax and more of the same?

    Ahead of the election, the party has presented an extensive 100-day program. Among the points are dismantling public service broadcasting, more and faster deportations, and major changes in education at schools and universities.

    One of the areas where AfD could have great influence is public service, believes Dörre. The party wants to terminate the contract with the current TV and radio channel MDR. All federal states have an obligation to provide public service, but they have some leeway to influence the content.

    AfD merchandise with texts like “Cool despite climate change,” “AfD is our home,” and “Not for left-handed.”
    AfD merchandise with texts like “Cool despite climate change,” “AfD is our home,” and “Not for left-handed.” Photo: John Falkirk
    – They can initiate more propagandistic content, using the argument “you taxpayers pay for this, but they lie to you,” says Klaus Dörre.

    He also believes universities and colleges could be significantly affected.

    – Education policy is largely a matter for the federal states. AfD wants to strengthen technical subjects, at the expense of humanities and social sciences.

    They can also largely rewrite the school curriculum. “More Bismarck, less Hitler,” as the education policy spokesperson Hans-Thomas Tillschneider puts it.

    Dörre is supported by Anna-Sophie Heinze, acting professor of political science at Leuphana University in Lüneburg.

    – Much of their radically formulated program can be implemented. It mainly concerns internal security, education, public service, memorials, and support for democracy projects, she says.

    Some things will be more difficult. The legal blog Verfassungsblog has reviewed all proposals in the election program concerning asylum and migration policy. 21 of 56 points are on the government’s or Brussels’ desk, the blog concludes. For example, a federal state cannot abolish the right of asylum.

    – Naturally, they have limited conditions at the state level, says Klaus Dörre.

    But Anna-Sophie Heinze still believes it could make life harder for refugees.

    – They have some room to maneuver. For example, they can house asylum seekers in large refugee facilities instead of giving them their own apartments.

    On the man’s t-shirt it says “Ungeimpft – Abschaum der Gesellschaft,” meaning “Unvaccinated – scum of society,” in Swedish.
    On the man’s t-shirt it says “Ungeimpft – Abschaum der Gesellschaft,” meaning “Unvaccinated – scum of society,” in Swedish. Photo: John Falkirk
    Some points are culture war issues. Among other things, AfD wants to replace rainbow flags with German flags at schools. They also want to change the state’s slogan #moderndenken (think modern) to #deutschdenken (think German).

    This is a reference to the Bauhaus school, located in Dessau in Saxony-Anhalt. Recently, AfD has attacked the world heritage-listed modernist architectural institution, whose school building is celebrating 100 years.

    Party representatives have called Bauhaus “the dead end of modernity,” the same phrase the Nazis used after they shut down the school in 1932.

    Conscious or unconscious Nazi references are common from AfD. At several events, Ulrich Siegmund has been introduced by an emcee who shouted “sieg!” to which the audience responded “mund!” He dismissed the resemblance to something else with: “What’s wrong with my name?”

    But this does not seem to bother people in Zörbig. It is still raining heavily.

    Among the visitors are both those who want to try something new and those who previously voted for the Nazi party NPD. SvD asks Stefan M and Viola K, from the nearby industrial city of Halle, why they support AfD.

    Viola and Stefan no longer feel at home in their own country.
    Viola and Stefan no longer feel at home in their own country. Photo: John Falkirk
    – We just want to try it. Something has to happen. I feel afraid of the future, but in a different way than the opposition, says Stefan M, who works in the plastics industry.

    Can you elaborate?

    – I no longer feel at home in my country. I can’t build a future without encountering barriers. When I drive through vulnerable areas on my way to work, I barely hear German.

    Viola K, who is retired, adds:

    – Someone has to get this country back on its feet again.

    Stefan M adds that he has no problem with immigrants who integrate and work.

    – It has nothing to do with racism.

    The German economy is doing poorly right now. Large parts of the automotive industry are collapsing, and Volkswagen may have to close several factories. Almost every week there are reports of new mass layoffs.

    At the same time, the future of the general German pension system looks bleak, which mainly affects East Germans, who generally have few savings.

    According to Klaus Dörre, the economy is a strong reason for AfD’s growth. The party is strongest in former East Germany but is also growing strongly in the West.

    Moreover, the economic downturn has continued with all established parties except the Left Party at the helm. First under a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals, and now with Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in government.

    – AfD positions itself as something completely new. There is enormous political dissatisfaction in the country, says Klaus Dörre.

    In Zörbig, Ulrich Siegmund has finished his speech and has gone inside to be photographed with voters. A long queue quickly forms.

    Many want to be photographed with AfD politician Ulrich Siegmund.
    Many want to be photographed with AfD politician Ulrich Siegmund. Photo: John Falkirk
    A bit away is Mega Döner, Zörbig’s local kebab restaurant. Behind the counter stands Mahsum, of Turkish descent.

    – Oh, you were here for the family party? I just walked by there. It was nice, I know almost everyone there. Some since they were small children. They are very nice people.

    – But the town is developing in a bad direction. All the young people move away as soon as they turn 18 and get a driver’s license.

    Mahsum himself does not vote.

    – Germany has a system, and the system will remain after the election.

    You have an immigrant background. What do you think about AfD’s politics?

    – Yes, that’s true. But I don’t notice from AfD voters here that I wouldn’t be welcome. I do my job, have done it for 12 years. And people say it’s okay if you work.”
    AfD supported by one in five German voters
    Alternative for Germany became the second largest party (20.8 percent) in the federal election 2025, but has been leading in national opinion polls for some time.

    They are strongest in the former East but are growing rapidly in the West. AfD was founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party but has since 2015 shifted to the right and is classified in several federal states as confirmed far-right extremist by the security service Verfassungsschutz.

    https://www.svd.se/a/5prx3e/makten-inom-rackhall-for-tysk-extremhoger

    1. fedtmule

      Tragic to read this article.
      Unfortunately, large parts of the population in the former GDR are severely developmentally disabled, as the development in this part of the country is still affected by the fact that it was first literally raped by the Red Army and then experienced 44 years of Soviet occupation and communist brainwashing. Unfortunately, it seems that many, for the third time lucky, wish to live under a totalitarian regime.

      It’s almost to the point where one almost wishes that the conspiracy theorists in the article could at least have been a little right about the secret DNA virus research, and that one could then have used this research to get rid of fools, fifth columnists, and Russian apologists like them.

    2. maggan

      Boring reading, I believe as always that this is a reaction to the other parties being so bad. If they had been more responsive, Afd wouldn’t have had a chance.
      Bullying and ignoring is not a winning strategy, then they grow unchallenged.

  35. Pehr

    Off topic about Krasnov.
    “Hundreds of former intelligence and security officials in the USA are sounding the alarm about Donald Trump’s increasingly autocratic tendencies, reports the Financial Times.
    Authoritarian leaders often follow the same rules of the game when centralizing power, according to Paul Kolbe, former CIA chief in former Soviet countries and the Balkans.
    – Everything we are now seeing in the USA aligns with that, he says.
    He and over 400 other people with the same professional background make up the network The steady state, which was formed in 2016.
    The membership number has increased significantly during Trump’s second term, but many remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.
    – Half of our members do not want to be identified, and these are people who have worked in war zones, says the founder Steven Cash.”
    https://omni.se/a/k0B6aj

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