It has long been time for a post about the fronts, which I intend to weave together with the deteriorating situation for Russia in wild disorder as usual, which you are probably starting to get used to.
Thanks to those of you who have taken the plunge and pressed the button for a paid subscription, powdered wig bow.
As mentioned, a lot of work goes into the writing, and my attempts to convince you that a paid subscription here is your best investment for eternal happiness continue – taking that step can feel overwhelming, but the euphoria afterward that lasts a lifetime is worth it. Ray Liotta and Nelson Mandela keep writing that they have not regretted it for a second.
We had big plans that were partly torpedoed; the Ukrainian soldier I was going to post texts from probably got upset when my angle was not about killing Russians but his inner journey over four years. I thought there was great value in such a story since everyone else writes about killing Russians, but I also understand that it might not have been the right time for a deep dive into the soul when he still needed to kill Russians. I can also understand that many just want to bury the crap because it is too difficult to try to process what they have been through, and then a spiritual journey with Johan No.1 is probably the last thing they want to do.
I almost have PTSD already after all the years abroad, and my worst experience is just barely escaping being burned alive in a pile of car tires by an angry lynch mob, so nothing to brag about directly.
This guy spent a year in a defensive system and had close combat with 23 Russians, all of whom died – that probably burns away all chances of returning to a normal life post-war unless you are married to the most tolerant wife in world history who will take all the darkness for the rest of her life.
What unfortunately usually happens is that returning soldiers are so dysfunctional that after a year or two they are unemployed, divorced, and drinking non-stop.
“Two tours in Iraq” or our UN missions usually cause damage to veterans, and this war has been so utterly black that many “two tours in Iraq” from our elite units left because they simply could not handle it at all. Left behind were the Ukrainian librarians, engineers, and mechanics who had neither training nor any choice.
If you also come from occupied or disputed areas, you no longer have a house because in Ukraine you don’t get a new house on insurance like we do – then you have to start over from zero with experiences you have very little chance to handle in a country overwhelmed by soldiers who cannot handle their experiences.
We are not there yet, but these are the sacrifices made so that we can have a life in peace and freedom. I also start to feel that since Ukraine has an upward curve now, people are beginning to take this a bit more lightly – wild guess is that the situation for the librarian in his trench in eastern Ukraine has not improved much in the past year.
The Pope and archbishops also backed out of a planned live magician show at the last second unfortunately, but I will try again when we get a new pope. At least I got a response that he did not think the saw-in-half trick was suitable for him but that he could consider sending a cardinal if I was the one in the box instead.
Then I thought I would start doing live streams and begin with YouTube, but Rise of Nations is simply too fun to find time for that.
Anyway, for Russia it is both sweet and sour. Their strategic offensive reserve is being expanded with the Rosgvardia, which has begun mechanizing – if you remember earlier posts about the Baltics, I always include all the letter agencies’ capabilities at +450,000 (old figure), including Rosgvardia, FSB, SVR, GRU, and other more or less private forces that have been set up. Now it looks like some Rosgvardia units have been reformed into brigade format and equipped with body armor, armor, and artillery. They also have various special units attached, such as GROM and drone units.
Rosgvardia reports directly to Putin, and he has an old loyal buddy who commands them. The unit can be used both for power struggles or interstate war in places the Russians consider Russian, such as Ukraine and the Baltics.
When a unanimous group of analysts and media stubbornly claim that Russia has no capability to wage war with the Baltics, do they then count the soon 400,000-strong Rosgvardia in that analysis, or is it excluded – asking for a friend in eastern Estonia.
It is actually a very strong argument that Putin will never try anything against the Baltics – he does not have the numbers. I believe he does, but no one else seems willing to accept that there is a fully graspable strategic offensive reserve at the northern front and various letter agencies.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/12/putin-expands-rosgvardias-role-a91934/pdf
The tank fleet was a hot topic a few years ago, and what is in depot is now running out. The honest OSINT analysts working on this all agree that it does not correspond to the losses and that the Russian defense forces today have more body armor and armored unit equipment than at the war’s start in 2022. Moreover, many have undergone REMO and been refreshed.
Since you don’t see anything in Ukraine, you have, like them, concluded that there is a considerable mechanized reserve somewhere, so you get an A too.
It seems that about 250 T90Ms are produced per year, and new production of BMP-3, BTR, and various body armor is also high (I compare here with us in Europe to define high). Since Rosgvardia is receiving new materiel, units not earmarked for Ukraine should also have received new equipment?
I am sitting and reading a bit, and Leningrad MD is apparently prioritized for new materiel.
Then Russia is taking giant steps towards a larger mobilization, where they are also preparing for unrest within the country that will be crushed hard Russian style if needed. Part of this mobilization is to fill out the skeleton of units belonging to Leningrad MD, which today consist only of a command structure.
Putin only has this left – escalation against us in Europe and mobilizing more soldiers to Ukraine. If he chooses to forgo that, the downward curve will be steeper and the war will end even faster.
It goes on until it can’t anymore, and historically when this level of pressure has been reached in the samovar, it has resulted in a violently bloody revolution. They managed three times during the 20th century, which is almost a world record.
Lots of rumors and just that – rumors.
Patrushev in a sickbed, the Rotenbergs on a long vacation in Dubai, Putin’s possible successor and longtime ally inexplicably dead, coup rumors, and FSB working weekends.
To me, it looks like Putin could dangle at a gas station any time, but until he does, this will keep going strong.
Was it fair of us in the West to let Ukraine take the full hit – no, not at all. But this is the reality we have to deal with, that we in Europe want peace but are not preparing for war.
Russia is fully occupied holding back right now and so far it looks like a stalemate but it absolutely is not.
We see daily how Ukraine is striking deep and it is damaging Russia beyond what they can absorb in the long term. The sanctions have worked terribly because Europe still buys Russian gas, oil, and sells equipment to Russia, but the more violent Ukrainian sanctions make a difference.
At the fronts, OSINT analysts have had to keep quiet due to threats of mobilization, so full opsec has applied. They can’t mobilize me because they don’t know I am in the Dominican Republic, I reveal everything below just as long as you don’t reveal to GUR that I live at Avenida 25 de Noviembre number 7 at the top.
At the Dnipro front, Russia has around 20,000 troops (according to Brovdi) and that figure matches well with what they had there previously, so it might be accurate.
The 144th Mechanized Brigade has been moved down to the Dnipro but beyond that no capabilities have been added by Ukraine.
Since Ukraine has nearly completely cut off logistics, Russia has acute problems with fuel, food, and water. Which of these will be the triggering factor remains to be seen. The units along the Dnipro have always been low priority to begin with.
Also according to Brovdi, they have started receiving approaches from “brigades” probing the possibilities of surrender.
One of the CAA staffs was knocked out not long ago and the drone coverage is total, both 0km-50km and medium range 50km-200km. Very little movement in and out so the situation will not improve.
Ukraine can use precision aircraft with FAB quite unhindered in the area and fights bunkers every week – FAB is a terrible weapon also for the Russians, it goes both ways.
Now I lost a long section that had to be rewritten which always saps Christmas cheer but we press on.
Up near Kamyanske, the spectacular thing is not that Ukraine has pushed back the Russians all the way from Primorske but that it is two VDV divisions with attached special forces that have conducted that retreat when their order was their own offensive. Since it is the Russian armed forces, it takes a lot before they retreat a whole mile during their own offensive.
Besides the BARS units holding the southern front, there are no rapid reaction forces in the entire area. The BARS units used to be battalions but have apparently been merged into quite formidable units, probably better than what I usually mock.
Nothing is coming in because of Ukraine’s fire control over all access routes, so Ukraine is a few brigades away from the strategic offensive reserve from being able to conduct offensive operations in this entire area. We will wake up one morning to a toppled Twitter.
A bit further up in Donbass just north of Pokrovsk lies the 90th TD and I have the impression they are in poor condition. A few days ago a large mechanical failure was carried out against Dobropillya which I believe the 90th TD was part of and it was smashed already during the advance. An area I keep my eyes on most because the 90th TD is the only heavier unit in that area and was supposed to be in poor condition even before this disaster (for them).
At Lyman, according to Russian maps, an encirclement is now forming, earlier Ukraine had reached Yampoliivka and now they are trying to reach the watercourse south of Makiivka. Our maps are not at all accurate according to the Russians, even the OSINT analysts who still don’t dare to post their own maps but leave hints to the Russian maps.
There are about a dozen Russian units inside this encirclement who, if they try to retreat, must cross a few crossings over the watercourse which would then become the bloodiest possible shooting range.
At Kostyantynivka, Ukraine has deployed units from its strategic offensive reserve and the city is probably still contested even though good news otherwise is scarce in the area.
Russia has come closer to Slovyansk – Kramatorsk which is one of the attack vectors they have prioritized and the cities are under the Russian FPV drone coverage.
At the northern front, it is still my belief that Russia is holding an offensive reserve for the Baltics hidden and that this is the reason for the buildup of capabilities both Russia and Ukraine have had in the area.
Since the North Korean 11th AC will take over guard duty at the northern border at some point, it will probably become harder for Ukraine to carry out offensives into Russia now/soon. Not militarily but politically, as it is then Russian territory defended by North Koreans, optics still matter (unfortunately…).
There is no information about any movements in the area except that Zelensky recently confirmed that the 11th AC will be reinforced with another 30,000 troops. That is actually not a bad idea at all provided the North Koreans don’t choose to invade Moscow instead.
The new Chief of Defense has made several statements that are sensible, drone weapons and continued offensive operations increasing. The season for offensive operations lasts until sometime mid-October.
The corps system seems to work well where experienced troop commanders push forward within their respective areas and then the Chief of Defense has a strategic offensive reserve he can move around for larger operations.
Putin has tried to force Belarus to project a threat against Ukraine to tie up their capabilities but so far Lukashenko has slipped out of it.
There is enough graspable capability to start operations at the Dnipro without weakening other fronts for Ukraine.
A Russian mobilization after the elections in September will not make a difference at the fronts before November so there is absolutely a window for Ukraine to exploit in the near term now that they have the advantage in drone warfare.
Russia is also actively working with drone interceptors and their own autonomous AI loitering drones, with China’s help they have at some point caught up. Normally such an advantage lasts about half a year.
You also know that Ukraine has learned the hard way to keep quiet, especially the US and Europe have leaked everything to Russia before so this year we have to guess a bit now that OSINT analysts also keep quiet.
That Russia intends to mobilize is a sign of weakness but they also have a considerable strategic offensive reserve they do not want to burn away in Ukraine.
But there is another layer to that onion – you have to get your reserves to the breakthroughs and with Ukraine’s new fire control in depth, that just became much harder.
Preliminary bombardment is anyway in full swing and then offensive operations usually follow, Kramatorsk – Slovyansk will be a concrete wall for Russia to bang their heads against and Ukraine has historically struck at weak spots or flanks instead.
Now everyone that counts – Budanov, Zelensky, Drapatyi – have just been absolutely clear that they intend to liberate their country and that a ceasefire is not suitable for that, the signals from Ukrainian officials are hard to misinterpret.
You already know that Ukraine has hoarded obscene amounts of shrapnel protection, mine clearance, amphibious combat vessels, artillery, and everything needed for mobile warfare. The drone weapon has a big bonus, which is that if you are at the top of the curve, you can fight mechanized yourself.
They have also recently started rolling out CAS with FAB, so we can add that to the capabilities available in their “uber for artillery,” which they probably renamed Delta now that it was going to be marketed internationally. Maybe Uber has contacted them about trademark infringement?
From my comfortable position in the stands, the stage looks set and the fact that we don’t hear anything because OPSEC is watertight is only good news.
Really bad news from the fronts will also speed up Putin’s deep marination in diesel; it could also cut his plans for escalation, but in that case, Ukraine needs to get there first.
Putin is probably now significantly more pressured than we think, and then there remains a last all-in for all dictators with some self-respect. We can assume that dog still has some bites left, but on the ground in Ukraine, especially down in the southwest, they are hopelessly behind in maneuvering space, like in a cramped collapsing mole tunnel roughly.
The EU is basically saying the right things, most recently at the UN, with one exception – things are going well for Ukraine now, so the focus should be on Ukraine getting its land back. A ceasefire automatically means frozen fronts, right?
Then Russia can calmly destroy the negotiations for as long as it wants; of course, Ukraine knows this very well, so let’s hope the EU doesn’t put too much pressure here.
That we in Europe are war-weary before Ukraine is not exactly heroic optics, and the urgency for a ceasefire probably has more to do with LNG than the torture-murdered children in Ukraine.
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Russian losses in Ukraine
Summary from the Ukrainian General Staff
This is the statistics since April 1 (the green line is the seven-day average).
The long-term trend is still slowly increasing, but I stubbornly keep my fingers crossed for a trend reversal.
Thank you for a nice yellow wall Johan! 👍👍👍
+1 on that.
Appreciate the read 👍
** Ukrainian F-16 crashes during combat mission, pilot ejects safely.
Ukraine’s Air Force lost contact with an F-16 fighter jet during a combat mission on July 29 after the aircraft experienced an in-flight emergency, the military said. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-f-16-crashes-during-combat-mission-pilot-ejects-safely/
Quickly send in a Gripen to fill the gap!
👍
👍
** 8 killed, 30 injured across Ukraine as Russia launches massive ballistic missile, drone attack.
Russia launched dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as hundreds of drones, towards Ukraine in the early hours of July 30 in yet another large-scale attack. Damage was reported in various cities, including Kyiv and Lviv, just hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was preparing another large-scale attack. **
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-heard-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-large-scale-ballistic-missile-attack-across-ukraine/
** Another Russian missile and drone attack The main target was the west of Ukraine, alongside Kyiv and other cities across the country. Some missiles hit apartment buildings, killing civilians. The attack included drones, cruise and ballistic missiles.**
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3mrtqpvifj72i
** Breaking Now: Another Ukrainian attack drone diving into another Russian Wildberries e-commerce distribution center in Udmurtia this morning. **
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mrtou36rhs25
** 🔥 Wildberries warehouses in Russia are becoming targets of Ukrainian attacks one after another: a map of the company’s largest logistics centers that have been hit, completely or partially destroyed since July 18 **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrrjdex5r224
Several lessons in FAFO for the Russian bastards, in other words.
** 🔥Sarapul, Udmurtia, the Wildberries warehouse was also hit. Area 75,000 m². **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrttryxprs2t
** Two more Wildberries facilities can be moved to the list of damaged hubs, and they burn so much that there is a chance that we can move them to the total loss list. Penza is 700 km (430 miles) from the Ukrainian border (under Ukrainian control) and Sarapul in Udmurtia is around 1350 km (850 miles). **
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mrttjmqfrc2m
** A Wildberries sorting center is reportedly burning in Penza, Russia, following a drone attack. **
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mrtt4ui73c2e
** The electronic budget system shows a 8.54 trillion ruble deficit as of 27 July 2026 **
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mrtnahqt5s2l
** Updated Wildberries, Russia Facilities Bingo Card 07/30 AM: **
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mrtmpn7gfs2q
** Ukrainian Air Force aircraft struck a Russian command post near Lysychansk, killing 18 troops. The commander and deputy commander of the 201st Separate Rifle Regiment were among those killed, while the regiment’s chief of staff was wounded. **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mrtrboqcs22w
** Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the overnight attack. Shot down: 0/4 Zircon anti-ship missiles 1/9 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles 54/61 Kh-101 cruise missiles 265/284 Strike drones Impacts of 3 anti-ship, 6 ballistic, and 2 cruise missiles, as well as 17 strike UAVs, were recorded. **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mrtsmsnpvk2b
** 🔥 A fire was also recorded in the territory of the port of Taman, in the Kuban **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrttvnskec2t
** Port Taman now 🤩🤩🤩 **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrturnusjs2t
** 🙏🇺🇦 Zelensky: A Russian missile strike in Radushne, Dnipro region, killed a parent and three children last night. Two more children were pulled out alive from the rubble. An ordinary residential building that was completely destroyed by a ballistic missile.
In Lviv, work is also underway at the site of the house hit – they are clearing the rubble and searching for people. 8 people died so far. Kyiv and the region, our Dnipro region, Lviv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were hit that night. **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrttl36w4s2t
Zelenskyy has several times warned in advance and then attacks have also occurred. One wonders where he gets the information from.
“Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones on the night towards Thursday, reports Kyiv Independent. At least seven people have been confirmed dead in several places in the country, including Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih. At least 15 people have also been injured in the attacks. There are also reports of explosions and fires in other cities, including Lviv and the Ivano-Frankivsk region.
Late Wednesday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that a Russian attack was on its way and urged people to seek shelter.
“The Russians prepared a large-scale attack several days ago, and there is a high probability that it will be carried out tonight. I urge everyone in all regions of Ukraine to be alert to the air raid sirens today and take care of yourselves,” he wrote in a post on X.”
https://omni.se/flera-doda-och-skadade-i-ryska-attacker-mot-kyiv/a/j0wbeo
Ukraine’s intelligence service, in cooperation with its Western colleagues, obviously has good information. Everything is also for sale at the right price with the Russian bastards.
Yes, they must have it.
Maybe it’s possible to see the preparation via satellite.
** During Russia’s overnight missile attack, a Russian cruise missile flew deep into Poland leaving a large crater near Tarnawa-Kolonia and Tokary villages The impact site lies roughly 100 km from the Ukrainian border. Russia launched Kh-101 missiles overnight, making this almost certainly one of them **
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mrtt6wl5s22q
“Unidentified object” has crashed in Poland – during attacks on Ukraine
An unidentified flying object has crashed in Poland in connection with Russian attacks on Ukraine last night, according to the Polish military on X.
Helicopters are reportedly on their way to the crash site in the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia in the Lublin border region to identify the object. It is unclear if anyone has been injured.”
https://omni.se/oidentifierat-foremal-kraschar-i-polen-efter-ryska-attacker-mot-ukraina/a/ExBq6K
** Russian Cruise Missile Flies Nearly 100 Km Into NATO Airspace Before Crashing in Poland **
https://united24media.com/world/russian-cruise-missile-flies-nearly-100-km-into-nato-airspace-before-crashing-in-poland-21195
** 🇵🇱 Russian missile (presumably an Kh-101) crashed in Poland near the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia overnight **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mrtwt66is22t
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is on his way to the Lublin region where an unidentified object is said to have crashed last night. The incident occurred in connection with Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.
According to the police, a loud explosion was heard at the impact site near the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia shortly before four in the morning. A ten-meter-wide crater is said to have formed when the object exploded, but there are no reports of injuries, according to Polskie Radio.
https://omni.se/a/j0wXLo
Witnesses near the site in eastern Poland where a Russian cruise missile is believed to have struck report a powerful explosion early Thursday morning, writes Fakt.
– It was so strange, it was as if the roof lifted. Everyone woke up, even the small children. Planes passed continuously. A neighbor said the light was so strong that the moon disappeared, says a man who lives a couple of kilometers from the site.
According to the police, there is currently no danger to residents nearby, who are urged to remain calm and not to try to approach the impact site, writes Rzeczpospolita.
https://omni.se/a/43rvKa
** Close-up footage of fire at the 90,000-square-metre Wildberries hub in Penza, which was set to expand beyond 180,000 square metres. ** Moive:
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mrtvlzkp5k2m
** ❗️On the night of 26–27 July 2026, specialists from the Unmanned Systems Department of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (GUR) tracked and struck a station of the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare complex near Cape Fiolent in temporarily occupied Crimea. The complex is valued at more than one billion ruble **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mrtvk3fhus2d
Krasnov can’t help it…
“Trump says he wants Zelenskyy to end war”
I don’t think he meant to end it by annihilating the Russian devils’ offensive capability or liberating all of Ukraine.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/30/8046470/
Sigh. Russia started the war and Ukraine is defending itself, but Trump thinks that it is Ukraine that should end the war…
Saw the video and I do not interpret it the way others do, that he is blaming the UA. It is a very sweeping comment about the meeting with Zelenskyy, which makes it difficult to determine what he means. I think in this segment you hear a completely different tone, not as accusatory as before, perhaps more that the war must come to an end no matter what. (Which at the moment will benefit RU)
If he approves licensed production of US material (which was talked about a week ago), the meaning of “ending the war” becomes completely different.
The man is not to be trusted, but I think one should go to the source and listen instead of trusting the media’s short, filtered messages.
Yes, you are right about that last part. Headlines or brief interpretations of others often become misleading.
You might (hopefully) be completely right.
I also watched the video and perhaps took him too literally on what he actually said.
As far as I know, he still has never accused Putin and the Russian bastards of the war and/or asked him to end it.
No, you are absolutely right, however, he tried to blame it on the UA, which he ultimately failed at completely. Probably because he listened too much to MAGA instead of those who have real intel.
I may be naive or it might be wishful thinking, but since he started a war against Iran, RU’s ally, he has probably received some intel that he previously dismissed as rumors and fake news, which now is worrying on several levels even for the USA.
It will take some time, but I believe that RU and Putin will gain another enemy when they finally openly show their contempt for the USA and disregard all agreements and treaties.
I have a bit of a hard time with that guy, but he has probably started leaning towards the Ukraine side lately, fortunately.
However, I am afraid that in his heart he is probably on Putin’s side, but the fear of ending up on the losing side might make him abandon his dear mentor.
Poland –
was probably a drone that was jammed with EW signals and not intentionally?
But the fact that it glides 100km into Poland before running out of fuel and crashing does NOT exactly project strength 😐
It could also have been misprogrammed or have some hardware malfunction.
Or deliberately done to provoke and observe that nothing happens except tired condemnations. In that case, it is still a way to show strength to one’s own population. “Look, we are bombing Poland but they are cowardly and do not dare to do anything because we are far too strong for them to dare.”
Now I am probably number one in believing this, but right here it felt like a misnavigation, in your post above it was about UA disturbing several with EW.
Since Europe and Poland are constantly talking about the “missile shield” and have promised to shoot down everything but do not do it – what signals does that send?
“it was still not threatening” does not hold because it flew 100km in and crashed when it ran out of fuel so it could theoretically have crashed in any community along the way.
If nothing else, RU is probably right now wondering if Poland actually has the capability and maybe they should test them?
Drones have been intentionally shot into Romania for a few days now.
Or it was a deliberate test but I just got a feeling and that always turns out to be true, as you know.
Sorry, I also mostly believe in EW, just gave some other alternative explanations.
We can only hope that Poland, out of pure self-interest, now sends more air defense to Ukraine.
You could send all the Polish patriot batteries to the area around Lviv, for example 😀
Maybe a bit early here because I mostly agreed with you, should have included a laughing emoji of course 🤣
👍
I think Poland should send half of everything they have militarily! 😃
Regardless, it is entirely the Russian bastards who bear the responsibility and should pay the price for their atrocities.
Absolutely! 👍
Off-Topic, China
Progress is being made in China, but far too slowly.
“For the first time ever, coal power accounts for less than half of China’s electricity production, writes Bloomberg. In the first six months of this year, the share was 49.7 percent. Renewable energy has risen from 40 to 41.2 percent, while nuclear power and natural gas make up the rest. China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but is clearly less coal-dependent than India.”
https://omni.se/a/zO9X31
Did you see that they have built a large-scale “fusion” reactor?
Don’t know exactly what it is, but they are building it like crazy while we are shutting down everything we can 😀
IF one really builds an operational fusion reactor to generate electricity, it is HUGE.
It has been the holy grail of the energy field for at least 50 years.
They have some test reactors and a larger one underway that is expected to be completed next year, and by 2030 they hope to be able to prove that they can actually generate energy. Then the next step will be to develop and build a reactor that can be used for real. So it is still a long way to a functioning solution, but they have come quite far.
(Already last year they managed to generate plasma for several minutes).
Currently, there are also several experiments ongoing in the USA (SPARC) and France (ITER).
SPARC is quite advanced as well, while ITER is investing much more but has a longer way to go. But even there it is at the experimental stage where they have to prove that the theories work.
The technology is interesting, and it will also be interesting to see who will be first with a commercially viable solution (if they really succeed, of course).
The technology itself will surely work, but it also has to work economically, and it is far from certain that it will.
South Korea is probably also developing, I seem to remember they were quite advanced for a while?
Fun to read MXT 👍👍
It is probably not finished, but progress is being made. It is usually the case that commercial fusion reactors are always 40 years in the future, but say what you want about the Chinese, they do get things done.
China has almost 40GW of nuclear power plants under construction. India is in second place with 6GW. China has about as much nuclear power in operation as France.
Reactor Database Global Dashboard – World Nuclear Association
And finally, we also got forest fires.
There is a fire in the forest Nybron/Högbyn northwest of Surahammar, reports VLT. The rescue service assesses that the fire is large.
– It is a strong fire. It also seems that a barn has burned. There is some risk of spreading to a cabin or residential house nearby, says Agneta Gustavsson, team leader at SOS Alarm to TV4 Nyheterna.
There is also a fire outside Skinnskatteberg, reports SVT Nyheter Västmanland.
Two helicopters have been deployed to fight the fires.
– Two helicopters are water bombing on site. The wind is quite strong so we will add more force. We have not yet managed to get around the fire, says Kurt Holm, operations leader at the rescue service, to SVT.
https://omni.se/a/y59y32
Perhaps not entirely unexpected but still unfortunate, of course. SMHI has probably warned almost the entire summer that it is dry.
Hopefully they manage to stop it quickly.
This is almost unreal to me.
Rockets and drones absolutely RAIN down over Ukraine daily, and every month a few thousand civilians die.
Then Tusk, who is still a strong UA supporter, comes out saying that the rocket into Poland was a mistake and urges everyone to stay calm so as not to escalate the situation.
To me, this is completely incomprehensible 😐
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jul/30/europe-ukraine-russia-poland-wildfires-france-spain-greece-latest-news-updates
The same with the wildfires, we REFUSE to point fingers at the arsonists…
Agree, we rather need to escalate if we want to stop Russia.
As for the forest fires, there is no proven case that Russia is behind them? But that is actually irrelevant, there are several other proven cases where factories, warehouses, and other things have been set on fire and where the Russian bastards have been shown to be behind it. We should have had enough already there.
I am hesitant about that – last year when the fires occurred, many were also arrested.
After a few months, they announced that some had done it on order and could link some payments to RU.
Over the past two years, we have received enough information to know that RU pays for sabotage where GM is found on social media, making the probability that they are also involved equal to 1.
It is enough to google to see the amount of paid sabotage that has been linked to them over the past two years.
So right now we do not have hard evidence that some of the arrested did this on order, as it needs to be investigated, and then this autumn when that information comes out, everyone will have moved on.
https://news.sky.com/story/how-russia-is-using-disposable-agents-to-sabotage-europe-13494007
This year, the level of forest fires in continental Europe is epidemic, and we should definitely point the finger squarely at Russia and seriously start holding them responsible for this.
“Forest fires are raging in several parts of the country. The E4 has been closed between Gävle and Sundsvall due to a large fire near Axmartavlan and Tönnebro, writes Aftonbladet. The Swedish Transport Administration estimates that the closure will last until 4 PM. There is also a forest fire northwest of Surahammar, reports VLT. The rescue service assesses that the fire is large. – It also seems that a barn has burned. There is some risk of the fire spreading to a nearby cottage or residential house, says Agneta Gustavsson, team leader at SOS Alarm, to TV4 News. There is also a fire outside Skinnskatteberg, reports SVT Nyheter Västmanland. Two helicopters have been deployed to combat the fires. – The wind is blowing quite strongly, so we will increase our efforts. We have not yet managed to get around the fire, says Kurt Holm, operations manager at the rescue service.”
https://omni.se/a/y59y32
Should not be in here, don’t have the energy to move it.
Gävle 🧐
There is a good candidate for pyromania there.
😂🔥
EU Commission has invited companies to apply for support of up to 10 billion euros to build up to seven large AI data centers in Europe. Bloomberg reports this. In addition to the billion-euro support from the EU and member states, around 20 billion euros in private investments are expected to be added. So far, however, only 2 billion euros in public funding is available; the remaining funds require approval in the EU’s next long-term budget. Three larger facilities can receive up to 1 billion euros each in support, while four somewhat smaller data centers can receive up to 500 million euros each. Construction start is planned for the first quarter of 2027. The EU states that parts of the procurements may be reserved for European companies, while the union has signed letters of intent with AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm.
Thank you for an interesting wall as usual.
Wrote a comment yesterday about how it looks dry in England, let’s see when it starts to burn. Now it is burning.
Suffolk wildfire latest: Nuclear power plant on alert over blaze
They are apparently also going to get their fourth heatwave. Risk that there will be fires in more places.
It must be a damn hard job to be a firefighter when it is simultaneously 30-40 degrees hot.
Personally, I find it hard enough just to sit still when it is 32-33 and above. They have to work physically dressed in full fire protection gear.
They have my deepest respect!
Completely agree.
Well, this summer will probably be the record summer for forest fires in Europe 😀
So far, yes.
Damn if I know, is Johan No.1 completely off track here?
One is always sitting in their echo chamber, but as far as I can see, Russia is working against escalation both in Ukraine and against us; exactly what they decide lies surely with Putin, which in itself is bad because he is mostly interested in himself.
Europe’s strategy is what I sarcastically call low-reactive response – we don’t point fingers or raise our voices, and possibly it becomes a “They say this but Russia says that”.
At some point, if this escalation continues, we must surely put our foot down seriously, but we are still buying Russian LNG, oil, and selling much of what they need for their arms industry, poorly concealed.
But when?
Is this well defined by our leaders? I don’t think so. However, everyone has now agreed on how we should act in the event of a ceasefire.
But we are still on the upswing, right? Is this our Chamberlain moment where we strive for peace but the other side is preparing for escalation? It went like that in 1938.
—
Germany has long been the locomotive in the EU, and they are seriously starting to have economic problems; the number of layoffs from their heavy industry is quite high and all curves point in the wrong direction.
The escalation is driven on several levels – hybrid war, economic warfare, armed conflict – and we are probably already comfortably involved in the first two.
China has already started export bans to us on things we need for our manufacturing, and the USA sprinkles impossible tariffs sometimes once a month, and the only ones not doing anything against anyone else are probably us in Europe?
Why don’t the USA – Russia – China attack each other as they attack us with all these different soft means?
A clear turning point would be if Russia collapses, and Ukraine is working towards that every day, but we in Europe don’t seem to want that; our goal as far as I can see is a ceasefire.
What comes after, and above all, does anyone today think beyond a ceasefire in the war?
—
Now I have been writing for a while, and since the frog is always boiled slowly, I have to conclude that we are entering a completely new phase against us in Europe, as when I expressed concern about 2025, it was answered with “that won’t happen.” And now the goalpost is just moved and “no, that won’t happen” to the next step up in escalation.
If we don’t see a clear turning point, we will reasonably head towards armed conflict here in the future, where Europe will also be dragged in.
Wouldn’t it then be better if the Russian balloon explodes uncontrollably as soon as possible? I find it very hard to see that anything else would actually stop this upward curve.
I fully understand that politicians have mandates, opinions, other parties, and above all other countries in Europe to relate to, but Poland’s quarrel with Ukraine and our election campaign is quite worrying together with our absolute unwillingness to strengthen the Baltics.
That we in some way are following the lead-up to WW2 is clear, with the difference that Ukraine has defended itself infinitely better than Poland did. The idea was, in fact, that Hungary and Belarus would tie up the sack, so with equal parts luck and hero-DNA, history did not repeat itself.
—
Did you know, by the way, that in 1938 when Germany took areas in Czechoslovakia, Poland also stole an area from the Czechs, only to then be invaded in 1939 by Germany and the Soviet Union from two sides, before Germany attacked the Soviet Union in 1941?
A bit of “everyone cheated everyone” about that.
And that after WW1 in 1919-1920, Poland fought the Bolsheviks where both had 800,000 soldiers, so similar in numbers to the Ukraine war, but then WW1 was over according to our history.
Yes, Europe’s actions are deplorable to put it mildly.
On the other hand, the news came today that the German economy grew surprisingly positively and exceeded analysts’ expectations, although it is a moderate growth rather than a dramatic rush.
The statistics agency Destatis published the preliminary figures for the second quarter of 2026: GDP growth amounted to 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter.
The analysts’ consensus forecast (according to Trading Economics and Reuters) was a more modest increase of 0.1 percent.
On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.9 percent, beating expectations which were at 0.6 percent.
They had low expectations that were exceeded 😀
Damn if I know about Germany, unless we stop buying Chinese products, they are pretty much left behind now.
China has been closing the gap in quality and due to high electricity prices, Germany’s products are now even more expensive than they should be and the customer base is shrinking.
Don’t know what else they are supposed to sell besides heavy industry, they tried a new worldview too and no one wanted that either.
German industry has also been boosted by a low-valued currency since the introduction of the euro compared to the DM. However, reality now seems to have caught up, resulting in a rude awakening.
The EU has, however, belatedly begun to act, albeit mostly verbally.
+ Friedrich Mez accuses China of dumping the value of its currency by 30 percent to outcompete EU companies.
+ Emmanuel Macron accuses China of driving large parts of the EU industry towards bankruptcy with its state-subsidized exports.
+ China is now a “systemic threat,” declares the EU.
At the EU summit in October, decisions will be made on punitive tariffs and stopping Chinese companies in the EU.
https://omeuropa.se/eu-hotar-med-handelskrig-mot-kina-vagar-eu-regeringarna/
Very good all around – they miss just one point.
We want to be environmentally friendly and everything Chinese has a higher CO2 footprint than our own manufactured products.
What an atomic bomb for China in October 😍😍
With a bit of luck, they will go there during the financial crisis and not us 😀
The only right thing is, of course, to impose the same demands on those we buy from as we impose on ourselves.
Then China, India, and the USA will always be the countries responsible for the highest emissions. What one can aim for is that emissions per capita remain at reasonable levels, and there the USA is the worst.
As China builds nuclear power and hydropower, they will soon have a smaller carbon footprint than Europe, at least when it comes to energy production.
I’m afraid that if the gas from the Strait of Hormuz does not start flowing soon and the Germans risk freezing this winter, they and the USA will insist on a ceasefire and lifted sanctions on Russian gas.
Do you remember the submarine cables and the total of 11 that were cut?
Since then, various countries in Europe have been shadowing Russian ships conducting underwater work over cables around all of Europe, and Russian submarines have also been active.
We didn’t really do anything directly there either, did we?
I still believe that big power outage was a test – to this day, the cause that gave the surge(?) which led to a lot of power production shutting down has not been confirmed.
Other than that, it was the first time that a surge caused a major power outage in Europe 😀
https://www.enlit.world/library/final-entso-e-reports-sheds-light-on-multiple-factors-that-caused-iberian-blackout
Since I wrote about it when it happened, there were also fluctuations in the UK in the days before that they managed to absorb, and we were discussing fires in transformer stations and whether they could cause cascading effects.
What speaks against it being Russia is that they should have already taken advantage of every winter in recent years. (Referring to the power outages).
Then maybe Putin will become desperate going forward and actually carry out sabotage on everything he can get to, and it could be, as you suggest, test shots to see if it works and what effects it produces, as preparation if later it feels like that is what remains.
I am a bit doubtful about the forest fires. It could of course also be some kind of test there, but the gain for Russia is low. It does not become an explicit threat. The economic losses are high but far from decisive. The risk, however, is much greater if they manage to catch those who started the fires.
That they set fire to warehouses and factories that process and deliver to Ukraine is easier to digest, but if it turns out that forest fires have been started where people’s lives and homes are threatened, I believe it will turn many more against Russia. It may not directly lead to anything more than condemnations, but the opinion against Russia in the affected countries would probably grow.
During military service in the summer, there were always fires on the training fields and you had to spend half the day putting them out – yes, it’s probably a nightmare for the firefighters out in Europe now 😶
I have no memory of that, the only thing I remember is that we had to put out fires when we practiced with your favorite, napalm (there were some other nasty things too but I don’t remember what they were now).
Off-Topic
Here, Blykalla’s solution might have helped since the need for cooling water practically disappears.
Johan, now you get a challenge to try to twist it so that the low water levels in the Danube are sabotage by Russia (or maybe it’s the Greens’ fault?) 😉
“Hungary will shut down the Paks nuclear power plant on the Danube River, says Prime Minister Péter Magyar on Facebook. – For the first time in 44 years, the entire Paks nuclear power plant will be shut down, he writes. The background is the historically low water levels in the Danube, which already on Wednesday forced a shutdown of one of the reactors. Magyar simultaneously urges households and industries to reduce their energy consumption to avoid an energy crisis, which according to him could arise as early as Monday. The shutdown could happen as early as Thursday, but according to Magyar is likely to be carried out on Friday.”
https://omni.se/a/Gx68EV
Well, that unfortunately adds to the pile of problems.
Now I got a bit curious and apparently we have two problems, one is low water levels and the other “too warm water,” which is then divided into how warm the water that is allowed to be released can be and how warm the incoming water is.
Low water levels are quite simple and are probably combined with warmer water temperature, but I find it quite difficult to discern when different plants are shut down because they are not allowed to release water or when the temperature exceeds the limit for incoming water.
Our nuclear power plants in the Baltic Sea have apparently sometimes had over 25 degrees, shouldn’t they be drawing their water from a depth?
Today now in July after your enormous heatwave
https://www.temperatur.nu/vatten/malaren-malarbaden
https://www.havstemperatur.se/hav-och-oceaner/-stersjon/
This one was good from 2019 from a Swede I think?
https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/05104543/nuclear-power-output.pdf?_gl=1*12wn7lm*_gcl_au*MTcyMjc1NzkwOC4xNzg1NDMwNjgw*_ga*R0ExLjEuMTk0MTcyMTY3MC4xNzg1NDMwNjM0*_ga_88025VJ2M0*czE3ODU0MzA2MzEkbzEkZzEkdDE3ODU0MzA2ODIkajU4JGwwJGgw
—
Fortunately, this probably only applies during at most two summer months and when we have the most solar power, so it feels like a manageable problem?
Could it be that the nuclear power plants do not draw their cooling water from a depth but near the surface?
Interesting, I am not familiar with that. You would think that those who use seawater should never have problems (at least not in Sweden, we very rarely have more than 22-23 degrees). In lakes and waterways, I can understand if it is limited by what they are allowed to discharge rather than that it does not cover the cooling needs. If the temperature is already high and you add more heat (warmer water coming in will probably also result in warmer water going out, or alternatively much more warm water going out), there is a high risk that the entire ecosystem will be destroyed, causing fish kills, etc., which means it can take years before vegetation and such recover. In a crisis situation, you can probably get permission anyway, but in the summer when electricity is not needed for heating, the risk is probably small.
In the Danube case, it might be a combination. Low levels so the intake simply ends up above the water level. You probably don’t want to suck in from the bottom and get sludge and trouble, but also water that is too warm so the cooling is not sufficient. The pumps probably have a maximum capacity, and if it is too warm, the cooling effect becomes too poor.
It can also certainly be that they have high safety margins so they count on the water being sufficient even if they encounter major problems.
OL3 has a cooling water flow of 57m2/s, so it is a large amount. Now I don’t know at what depth it is taken in, but it is also released nearby.
About two-thirds of the reactor’s thermal power is released into the cooling water, OL3’s reactor power is 4300MW while the electrical power is 1600MW. Sounds like bad engineering, but it has to do with the fact that steam below a certain temperature and pressure can no longer be used in a steam turbine, but must be cooled down to liquid form to be able to be returned to the reactor and boiled up again. Therefore, residual heat is used for district heating or process steam in a conventional power plant, which increases efficiency.
If the volume of water available decreases, that is, the level drops, or if the flow in the river decreases, so that it is not replaced often enough, it will heat up quite quickly. I assume they have limit values for temperature, level, and flow, at which point they start to reduce the power.
Thank you for the interesting data.
It is really pure madness not to use the waste heat for district heating of buildings and snow melting on roads.
Inspired by Hokkaido where they have built “underfloor heating” into the highways and heat with energy from hot springs.
😂 “The Gas Station” is having problems!
“Russia is extending the export ban on diesel and gasoline that was introduced due to the fuel shortage in the country, reports Reuters citing the Russian news agency Interfax. The fuel shortage has arisen after Ukraine’s repeated attacks on Russian oil refineries and oil storage facilities. This has led to fuel rationing in several Russian regions and hours-long queues at gas stations in, among other places, Moscow. In some locations, guards have been deployed at gas stations to maintain order.”
https://omni.se/a/wr95J1
Good 😊👍
This is something I am basically positive about, although it probably should have been started already 2-3 years ago. Before the halls are finished, there is of course a certain risk of overestablishment.
At the same time, it is also a security issue; we should try to store as much as possible within Europe, and we also need to catch up with AI (but do it sensibly). When it comes to AI, it can actually be an advantage not to be first. The most expensive initial development work can preferably be borne by the USA and China.
“EU Commission has invited companies to apply for support of up to 10 billion euros to build up to seven large AI data centers in Europe. Bloomberg reports this. In addition to the billion-euro support from the EU and member states, around 20 billion euros in private investments are expected to be added. So far, however, only 2 billion euros in public funding is available; the remaining funds require approval in the EU’s next long-term budget. Three larger facilities can receive up to 1 billion euros each in support, while four somewhat smaller data centers can receive up to 500 million euros each. Construction start is planned for the first quarter of 2027. The EU states that parts of the procurements can be reserved for European companies, while the union has signed letters of intent with AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm.”
https://omni.se/a/QJ8K5W
However, it is of utmost importance that the companies come from Unionen as intended. Otherwise, we risk becoming a colonized continent, a “raw material supplier” to foreign tech companies.
Polish interview with Kasparov.
“When Putin is under pressure, he always escalates.”
Kasparov explains why the Baltics are in danger.
**As Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds on, the conflict exposes ever deeper weaknesses within the Russian state. Could Russia’s war against Ukraine ultimately accelerate the collapse of the empire that Putin so desperately tries to preserve?”
“I believe the empire is dying. And I believe that during our lifetime we will see the end of the Russian empire,” said Garry Kasparov, Russian chess grandmaster and chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative, to TVP World. He added that he does not expect the Kremlin to be able to maintain its current borders for more than at most 10 years, and that he hopes it will be even sooner.
“People ask me: ‘Do you want Russia to collapse?’ It’s not about what I want or not. It will happen,” he said.
Kasparov warned, however, of the scenario where Putin might decide to take desperate measures when faced with the prospect of losing power amid the collapse. And the Russian people themselves may follow him.
“Talk to a population that has been brainwashed for decades. Try to listen to Russian propaganda for three days, and even for you it will be difficult. They are not attacking; they are defending themselves,” he explained. “They will not attack NATO countries. They will attack countries that support Ukraine’s aggression against Russia.”
“That sounds ridiculous to us, to normal people in Poland, in Germany, but for many, many Russians that is how history looks,” concluded the chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.
Kasparov said his goal is to explain to Western politicians how the Russians, and Putin, think, as well as to unite to defend their values and ideally deter him.
“And I will do absolutely everything to build as strong a coalition as possible, to ensure that Putin’s aggression never succeeds,” he said.
But in the end, to ensure lasting peace, Russia must change, and as Kasparov put it: “Victory for Ukraine is the only chance for change in Russia.”
“Join TVP World’s Paweł Trzaskowski and his guest as they discuss why Kasparov believes Putin is already at war with all of Europe, the risk of Russia testing NATO’s resolve through a limited attack on a member state on the eastern flank, as well as the Kremlin’s preparations for a renewed military offensive, including the possibility of yet another large-scale mobilization.
https://youtu.be/aDDs-d2lAoc?is=_UF19_efiLRxqJw-
👍 I like Kasparov and I hope that Europe’s leaders listen to him.
Agree.
I sincerely hope that people listen to him.
“Russia used, among other things, a North Korean missile in last night’s deadly attacks on Ukraine, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The missile is said to have been used in an attack on Radushne. This is the first time in a long while that Russia is reported to have used a North Korean missile. ‘Further investigations will be conducted and everything will be verified, but the evidence currently suggests that it involves a North Korean missile,’ Zelenskyy writes. At least eight people were killed and over 50 injured in last night’s attacks, according to Kyiv Independent.”
https://omni.se/a/q63EGE
It will be a bit of a messy post tomorrow but it is Friday 👍
Not even Estonia wants our prisoners 😭
https://news.err.ee/1610065043/tartu-protesters-rally-against-swedish-trash-in-estonian-jails