The Great Technological Leap, 31 July 2026

Today it will be a bit of a mixed bag without a clear direction, but since you all probably started Friday with a Norrlands Guld for breakfast, I think I can get away with it.

I think this video shows the drone weapon in a rather disturbing way; on a side road, there is a long line of Ukrainian FPV drones waiting for target detection, they look like creepy beetles. The video is said to be from a Russian reconnaissance drone. Those of you who only read johanno1.se will have to run to the Substack post for the videos.

Then maybe you remember the NATO video of shooting down drones on a shooting range; there are a couple of videos circulating, so I’m including a representative shooting range video.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/XViyICt8GME?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0

Here you have a Ukrainian fighting drones with a machine gun, and we don’t even see the drone buzzing behind a tree. The fact that he is also using a heavy weapon doesn’t make the shootdown any less impressive.

The point is that to be able to shoot down drones as a soldier, you need extremely realistic training; they rarely are colorful and hover in the air until you shoot them down.

In fact, the operators are constantly performing evasive maneuvers precisely so that you won’t shoot them down. I don’t know exactly how the AI drones work, but I guess they dive from higher altitude so you get minimal reaction time instead?

If nothing else, this is the reality for every soldier from now on and a skill you need to have until drone interceptors are widely available down to the squad level. A soldier in the squad with a handheld platform that has cassettes with interceptors and a loader with more cassettes.

Since over 90% of the losses in Ukraine are from the drone weapon, this is probably among the most important skills and capabilities you can acquire for guest appearances on today’s battlefield.

EW weapons are quite tricky, and we have probably all seen all the videos we need of a Russian soldier standing with some futuristic weapon and dying when the drone hits – kinetic interceptors that can actually be as small as you want as long as they are fast, and having more than the drones is a must.

Going forward, we will get fewer and fewer drones released from larger drones, making them even harder to shoot down.

EW weapons should then be used as a complement to the kinetic anti-drone weapons, but both are needed down to the squad level throughout the organization.

A company resource with some rocket launchers that are AI-automated on a cheap platform, 7.62mm and up?

That is why I am of the opinion that this should have been started earlier and not ordered the frigates and trained for the last war at Aurora 2026 – this threat is here to stay and the defense must exist down to the squad level in the organizations.

Having your own drone weapon is next, and how far down in the organization you spread it is important. All fighting units must have access to reconnaissance drones and drone weapons all the time, because if you are in combat without these capabilities, it becomes a significant deterioration.

The digital battlefield to coordinate all indirect capabilities and reconnaissance resources must almost also go down to the squad level, I think?

Ukraine often attacks with a platoon or squad supported by the drone weapon and reconnaissance resources and has real-time communication, so it is not possible to command from the battalion level anyway.

Decentralization must be the future, somewhat like instead of dedicated anti-tank units, distributing anti-tank weapons to the rifle squads.

Here is a firsthand source on how much harder it is for artillery to operate on today’s battlefield.

All traditional capabilities are still needed, and if you have drone superiority, you can fight mechanized.

However, our doctrine with constant regrouping is obsolete if it is within 50 km of an active front. In that case, you must either extend the range of the artillery or protect them with an anti-drone weapon 24/7.

Since drones increasingly have IR cameras, camouflage is also not effective, and you have to work with different materials instead; we have Barracuda, for example.

Probably artillery will also change going forward – range and size of platforms.

I have long felt that large expensive platforms with short range (in this context) of which you have few are not preferable. Cheap platforms that deliver accurate effect on the target will surely be one leg, and the other heavier platforms that have the range that you can still regroup in depth according to our doctrine.

Reconnaissance resources and then our equivalent to the Ukrainian Delta are critical in this context, of course. I think we should be able to buy ready-made packages from them that we improve to cut time, but of course, there is a defense industry and its lobbying that wants to sell their own technology.

What probably has not yet hit the planners in the face is the extent of the drone weapon that must be equipped in units, and that all parts depend on each other for the whole.

The new thing in the First World War was the trenches and machine guns; before, you would line up and may the best man win (I am simplifying and trenches existed earlier!).

The counter to the trenches was the tanks, which performed rather poorly, but when they didn’t get stuck or have engine failure, there was no counter weapon.

Then in WW2, the tank was the new black, and anti-tank weapons were a whole range from ground attack aircraft to 20mm rifles up to larger anti-tank guns towed or mounted on vehicles.

At the risk of being wrong, I think Germany was first to widely deploy man-portable anti-tank weapons in the organization with their Panzerfausts; otherwise, there were “bazooka,” PIR, or Panzerschreck together with anti-tank guns as a company or battalion resource quite often.

Partly, the Germans’ larger anti-tank guns were easy targets for ground attack, and then they were overwhelmed by Allied and Soviet armor numbers, so the counter became an anti-tank weapon for every soldier with a pat on the shoulder.

Sweden introduced the anti-tank weapon and GRG at the squad level after WW2, and today they are as natural as the ration tin.

I see the drone weapon somewhat the same way, where you need interceptors at the squad level, otherwise you become as helpless as when Rommel’s tanks come rushing and the company sent the anti-tank gun to the wrong map coordinate.

We don’t have that today, and the likelihood that we get properly slapped is high, especially since the drone weapon accounts for 90% of the losses in the Ukraine war. We solved the task during Aurora 26 by removing the drone weapon, but I am quite sure that historically, wars have rarely been won that way; I believe I have some support in the literature for that bold claim.

The Ukraine war, Russia is worried about all the exercises with vessels over by the Dnieper.

Ukraine has knocked out Russian “space communication centers” for a while now – previously it was totally forbidden because Putin would cover us with nuclear weapons. Another red line he can only cry over now that it has been crossed.

I keep nagging about the Yamal cross until I turn blue, but if they cut it off, 60% of Russia’s heat supply this winter will be gone. We know that it is a target already entered in the Excel sheet, but why they keep holding the trigger, we do not know.

Recently, Russia struck a major conference for the Ukrainian arms industry, which probably devastated the participants so much that UA had to fudge the number of dead – RU also has good real-time intelligence gathering.

That is also something Ukraine excels at, and many times an interview has led to a target being engaged within days.

Refusal to attack is present among Red Storm.

Now it is confirmed at least, even though I can’t be bothered to find the source – something I have discussed for a long time that RU uses the shadow fleet as drone platforms. As long as they are scouting, that’s one thing, but a first strike before we realize it’s war could be unpleasant for us.

Here you have an unofficial map for Lyman by the way, the source is pretty decent so it’s probably accurate. Haven’t posted these before but it’s Friday and you are drunk, so I’ll probably get away with it.

Here you have the counterattack at Kostyantynivka described a bit better, I covered it in a post.

Then I want to highlight the environmentally friendly aspect of Ukraine’s warfare, 1700 Russian oil wells have shut down in the first half of this year.

Something funny, Putin has made his cousin’s daughter a general in the army, completely bypassing the career ladder since she was a psychiatrist without military experience. Apparently, the officer corps is less amused, and that’s very good – when nepotism becomes too much even for the world’s leading nepotism country Russia, then it has gone quite far.

Ending with hackers discovering that Belarus has prepared accommodations in larger buildings for mass mobilization.

Have a nice weekend and Ukraine’s cause is truly ours, especially if we don’t want the war in our own backyard going forward.