Too much is happening for me to manage staying away from the UA war.
Moreover, everything is in full swing everywhere, rumors of a harsh US rotation from stocks into their government bonds, China’s Xi fell ill during the BRIICS meeting, Houthi who left the mountains and now sits on the coast with the desert between them and the mountains, some internal unrest in Iran with firefights and an increasingly escalating hybrid war in Europe where the Netherlands went into deep red this week.
On johanno1.se I have also posted two videos of Baltic and Polish transport trains with heavy vehicles heading east, so it is clear that the Balts and Poles are taking this seriously now, which is appreciated.
You know from the posts that UA has long conducted offensive operations NE of Lyman up in Northern Luhansk and now finally it broke, mainly the 144th MRD which was split and UA officially commented on the operation.
RU has long tried to attack to the SW between two rivers down towards Lyman in the northern scope towards Kramatorsk/Slovyansk. There are two Combined Arms armies (CAA) in the area, the 25th and 20th.
RU has gathered a lot of capability in the area south of Kostyantynivka and further south.
This has been done at the expense of everything else, the Dnipro front is weakened, the southern front is probably weakened, they seem to have abandoned the ambition level at Kostyantynivka and above all they are weak in northern Luhansk.
Now information is circulating that UA has crossed Zherebets in some places and then it starts to go from local offensive operations to a tactical one. I consider it confirmed that UA crossed Zherebets and UA officials themselves said something like this is phase one in a four-phase operation so they have definitely not cleared the area and gone on defense on their side of the river.
You know from before that UA has an offensive strategic reserve of maybe 60,000 who have rotated around where the Skala regiment (which is now division-sized) has been a part.
Many maneuver brigades have been held back, we know that because UA defends at the front with a drone umbrella and a sparse picket line. Over at Lyman, Russian sources have talked about new fresh UA brigades.
Yes, they have problems with staffing but Europe has for over 1.5 years sent enormous amounts of mine clearance, tanks, and fragmentation protection. Ukraine has also placed new weapon stations on all old Soviet vehicles they can get and builds their own vehicles so it is highly likely that there is a considerable mechanized armored fist revving its engines.
Behind (east of) Zherebets stand mainly regiments from the 144th MRD which are in poor condition and the only way to get reinforcements in is up and bandaging on the highway which is high risk because UA now has its “medium-range” drone system fully deployed.
The area behind is almost empty, no task forces from elite units at all as we usually see in other places.
It is the 3rd AC fighting in the area, commanded by Biletsky and has just received new capability and expanded operational freedom as well as a direct line to Magyar’s drone units.
Here they are by the way, 1st Azov and 3rd Army Corps which are heavily reinforced.
Difficult to predict more than that, UA has long known that we would reach this point because even we in the thread have seen it so probably they have redundancy with units and lots of drone capability to exploit the opportunity – that is something UA excels in.
Down in Kostyantynivka – you remember the area where RU worked their way forward and we wrote that it is not critical as it is an operation away from the strategic offensive reserve to be stabilized, UA has just conducted a series of offensives that have taken them at least to the city center.
I guess that area is part of Prokopenko’s 1st Azov Corps since he also received extended authority/capability and operational freedom.
If you remember, RU had already declared the city captured but now there is full speed inside again.
A bit south of there lie the 90th TD and 20th MRD which have taken a lot of hits in the last six months, and also there is direct Azov land.
There is also movement up at the northern front where UA is active and retaking dominant terrain.
Down at the Southern front RU has gathered a lot of capability and both are conducting offensive operations. Zelensky promised a few weeks ago to reinforce the area and the corps commander said it was tough but manageable – something like that.
But it is also claimed now that RU has weakened at the southern front as you read above, so not exactly sure.
RU has withdrawn its last AD from the Dnipro front at least but has some regiments left, looks thinner there than before and UA reinforced with a mech brigade that is to become marines.
I find it hard to see anything else than that UA has started offensive operations at a high level and that RU has begun to lose momentum but that they are still in their offensive phase.
According to 205 on johanno1.se, a few days ago there were twice as many UA offensive operations as Russian.
Earlier it was a big deal for us in that thread when the ratio became 1:1.
A lot is happening now.
It also seems like Europe is supplying interceptors from their readiness stocks to bridge until UA’s own production is up and running, hopefully it will be enough.
UA has a window until November – December sometime when RU starts to deploy what they mobilized in units.
The wet season with poor ground bearing capacity should come sometime in October at different times across the fronts. But at the same time as I claim it will be quiet for a while then, Prokopenko just went out saying that then RU will try to fight mechanized when it is cloudy so drones are less effective – my credibility plummeted.
There are two legs to this, Putin’s escalation against us and that Ukraine is on an upward rising curve.
We have previously posted Russian unit maps that did not match how it looked at the fronts and have often discussed that the filtering upwards in the chain of command gives an incorrect situational picture for the combat leadership.
This has only worsened and at the same time as Putin claimed that RU had taken Sviatlohirsk, Ukraine was 25 km further east pushing the Russians ahead of them.
Kupiansk and Kostyantynivka are also lost despite Gerasimov proudly announcing that they are conquered.
Apparently it is so bad that Russian regiments that are supposed to attack get the same information because previous brigade commanders do not dare to admit it so sometimes they roll in column straight into Ukrainian positions when they think they are 20 km behind the front.
Putin also has increasing internal opposition to the war and it was rumored that he purged a couple in the FSB who had been his biggest fanboys so far.
Anything can probably happen but it happens faster if Ukraine puts pressure on the battlefield, which they do.
One day it will be Swan Lake in black and white on TV, we know that, it will come suddenly and without warning.
A little status update from the depths of vacation and it will probably be sparse for a few more weeks but this was something I couldn’t resist since the world’s best shooting has decided to move forward everywhere.
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