Oil refinery and Ozone among Ukraine’s targets during the night – Drone shot down in Lithuania, came from Belarus – Russian losses

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Ukraine’s Night Attacks
Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked Russia’s Syzran oil refinery and targeted an Ozon warehouse in Taganrog

Ukrainian forces attacked the Syzran oil refinery in Samara oblast in Russia as well as an Ozon warehouse in Taganrog during the night.
Fires broke out at several locations within the oil complex. The governor of Samara oblast has announced that over 40 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the region but also admitted that an industrial facility was damaged and windows were shattered in several residential buildings.

In Taganrog, Ukrainian missiles reportedly hit a warehouse belonging to Ozon according to the governor of Rostov oblast. He also reported several damages including to residential buildings, an educational institution, a gas pipeline, a commercial building, a grocery store, and storage facilities belonging to an agricultural company.

Drone Shot Down in Lithuania
According to reports, NATO planes shot down a drone over Lithuanian airspace after it flew in from Belarus during the night.
“A drone that just entered Lithuanian airspace was destroyed by NATO fighter jets. I thank allied personnel for their swift actions,” said Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda in a post on X.

The drone entered Lithuanian airspace from neighboring Belarus and flew over Lentvaris near the capital Vilnius before being shot down near the major city of Kaunas, said the head of the country’s national crisis management center Vilmantas Vitkauskas to the state TV channel LRT.

Authorities are still searching for the drone wreckage and have not yet disclosed the type of drone involved.

One Injured After Russian Attack on Gas Station
Russia attacked a gas station in Kyiv – a man was hospitalized with serious condition. There were also attacks on storage facilities in the Obolonskyi district of Kyiv.

Poland’s military operational command said that military air operations were initiated in Polish airspace as a precautionary measure in response to Russian drone attacks against Ukraine. The preventive operation ended several hours later.

Oligarch Umar Kremlev Sponsored Trump Jr.’s Wedding
“The Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev covered part of the expenses when Donald Trump Jr. and his newlywed wife Bettina Trump got married in the Bahamas this spring. This is shown by an investigation from Pro Publica reported by several American media outlets.
On Instagram, Bettina Trump confirms that Kremlev paid part of the bill. She describes the oligarch as ‘a friend.’ In a post signed together with her husband, she writes that ‘it was an extraordinary gift for which we became, and remain, immensely grateful.’
Kremlev is said to have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for wedding expenses.”
(Source Omni but the news is of course available in many other places.)

Umar Kremlev (formerly Lutfullojev) has been convicted of extortion in 2004 and assault in 2007. He had a rapid career through boxing and became a prominent figure within the Russian Boxing Federation in 2017 and in 2020 was elected chairman of the International Boxing Association, IBA. His fast career is said to be linked to his close friendship with Aleksei Rubezhnoi, colonel general and head of Putin’s security service (SBP), who has also recently become involved in boxing, helping him rise to leadership in Russian boxing. Kremlev is close to Putin and has publicly thanked him several times for the opportunities he has received.

Kremlev’s fortune mainly comes from the Russian gambling and betting market where he and others had influence over the three largest companies that together generated enormous revenues.

The Russian car dealer Rolf, one of Russia’s largest dealers, was taken over by the Russian state. What did the Russian state do? They handed the company over to Kremlev. Such things obviously don’t happen unless you are a close friend, sorry, comrade of Putin.

Kremlev was also part of the official Russian delegation during Putin’s China trip in 2023 and in April 2026, Putin awarded him the Russian Order of Friendship at the Kremlin.

The connections between Kremlev and Putin are obvious and it is likely that Kremlev is also controlled by Putin.

So it is not only Trump who is corrupt but his entire family. They see no problem accepting money from Russia, as of course this happens with both Putin’s and Trump’s approval (Trump may very well have initiated it).

Trump has already received financial help from Russian sources long ago but back then Russia had not started the war against Ukraine, but apparently such things don’t matter as long as one can enrich oneself and one’s family. If anyone thinks Trump will try to find a fair solution for Ukraine in this war, it’s probably time to reconsider. Ukraine cannot afford the bribes that would be needed. They have already been forced to promise away their natural resources (which would stop the Russian attacks…).

Some might think this is not so serious. Not having the full support of the US, or in the worst case having the US against you because you allow yourself to be bought by Russia IS serious and could be decisive for Ukraine.

Russian Losses

I have wished to see KWIA at the same level as yesterday, but it will surely come.

  • 1400 KWIA
  • 3 AFVs
  • 41 Artillery systems
  • 4 MLRS
  • 1 Air defense systems
  • 1839 UAVs
  • 11 UGVs
  • 376 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 7 Special equipment

Ukrainian General Staff Morning Report

Operational information as of 08:00 on September 15, 2026, regarding the Russian invasion

Glory to Ukraine!
The 1665th day of the Russian Federation’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has begun.

In the last 24 hours, a total of 262 combat engagements were recorded.
Yesterday, the enemy conducted 81 airstrikes, during which 280 guided aerial bombs were dropped. Additionally, the attackers used 10,368 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,839 shellings against communities and our troops’ positions, including 38 with rocket artillery.

Hostile shelling affected, among others, the communities of Bachivsk, Korenok, Rohizne, Tovstodubove, Hirky, Yastrubshchyna, Havrylova Sloboda, Malushyne, Neskuchne, Volfyne, Luzhky, Studenok, and Pustohorod in Sumy region, as well as Mykhalchyna Sloboda in Chernihiv region.

In the past 24 hours, the defense forces’ aviation, missile units, and artillery hit three command posts, three areas with concentrations of enemy personnel, a command post for unmanned aerial vehicles, an artillery system belonging to the occupiers, and two other important enemy targets.

On the northern Slobozhansky and Kursk sectors, two enemy assault attempts were recorded in the past 24 hours. The attacker carried out 66 shellings against our troops’ positions and communities. The enemy also conducted two airstrikes with a total of three guided aerial bombs.

On the southern Slobozhansky sector, Ukrainian units repelled five enemy attacks. The attackers tried to advance towards the communities of Lyman, Kozacha Lopan, Obukhivka, Starytsia, and Volokhivka.

On the Kupiansk sector, the enemy attempted to improve their positions on eight occasions through assault operations towards Radkivka, Tyshchenkivka, Monachynivka, and Kivsharivka.

Attempts to break into our defense were repelled on the Lyman sector, where the occupiers carried out eight attacks towards the communities of Novoiehorivka, Novoselivka, Drobysheve, Lyman, and Yampil.

On the Sloviansk sector, the enemy conducted eight assault attempts in the areas around Ozerne, Kryva Luka, and Mykolaivka.

On the Kramatorsk sector, the Russian attackers did not conduct any assault operations.

On the Kostiantynivka sector, 29 attacks were recorded. The attackers conducted assault operations in the area around Kostiantynivka as well as towards Novoselivka, Illinivka, Dovha Balka, Rusyn Yar, Toretske, Vilne, and Stepy.

On the Pokrovsk sector, the enemy conducted 26 attacks. The occupiers tried to advance towards the communities of Novyi Donbas, Hannivka, Bilytske, Dobropillia, Svitlé, Matiashéve, Serhiivka, Udachne, Molodetske, and Novopidhorodnie.

On the Oleksandrivka sector, the enemy did not conduct any assault operations.

On the Huljajpole sector, the occupiers attacked our defenders’ positions nine times. The attacker tried to advance towards the communities of Rizdvianka, Dobropillia, Verkhnia Tersa, Zaliznychne, and Charivne.

In the Orikhiv sector, the enemy attempted on two occasions to improve their positions towards Shcherbaky and Stepnohirsk.

In the Prydniprovsk sector, the occupiers did not conduct any offensive operations.

In the Volyn and Polissya sectors, no signs have been detected that the enemy is forming offensive force groupings.

In total, the Russian attackers’ losses over the past day amounted to 1,400 personnel. Additionally, three armored combat vehicles, 41 artillery systems, four rocket artillery systems, one air defense system, 11 ground-based missile systems, 1,839 unmanned aerial vehicles, 376 vehicles, and seven units of special equipment were neutralized.

Join the defense forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Comment:
Localized Russian attacks: 97 out of a total of 262, giving a ratio of 165 / 97 = 1.70.

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132 thoughts on “Oil refinery and Ozone among Ukraine’s targets during the night – Drone shot down in Lithuania, came from Belarus – Russian losses”

  1. MXT

    The results from the survey (which I have now closed) show that “No, nothing at all” was what most voted for, which also became the outcome in reality.

    Of course, new demands and wishes may have emerged from both sides, but if so, nothing has been made public.

  6. MXT

     A helicopter from the Danish Defense has been fired upon with “emergency flares or pyrotechnics” from a Russian frigate, the defense writes in a press release.

    One of the emergency flares passed close to the helicopter. This occurred during “routine photography” of the ship in international waters outside Gedser.

    No further information is provided.

    1. Proxima

      Thank you MXT for all the info.👍
      It is forbidden to launch distress rockets from a ship unless there is an emergency.
      But maybe the vodka in the “slabbkistan”
      has run out, and then one might assume it is an emergency for a Russian crew.🥃🥃🥃🛟🛟🛟
      It was probably that frigate that came into the Baltic Sea from the Northern Fleet about a month ago.

      1. Proxima

        Strange that the Danes used a helicopter to check the frigate. The Danes have an incident readiness (afvisningsberedskab) similar to Sweden. I even believe they use the war base on Bornholm.
        The Danes have phased out all their F16 planes. At the beginning of the year, the last of the original 77 planes flew away. Some were donated to Ukraine. 15 F35s have been delivered to date. 27 + 16 are ordered. Just noting that they chose a helicopter instead of two F35s.

    2. EmigrantJohan

      Now, I do not know what is officially communicated internally within the Russian military (for obvious reasons…) but I can imagine that military personnel who:

      1. Hear a number of prominent figures state that my country is at war with NATO
      2. These people have given me a (considerable) amount of vodka

      I can imagine that it triggers one thing and another.

      Best regards
      The Emigrant Investor

  7. MXT

    Off-Topic, USA government bond yield

    Johan (if you haven’t decided yet) this could benefit the USD at least in the short term, as it attracts investors who get a good interest rate.

    At the same time, it is a signal of high inflation and increased interest rates can cool the economy, especially considering that real wages have not kept up and that many companies in the USA have reduced their margins. In the long term, it could instead lead to the dollar falling if the American economy performs poorly. It is not retreating yet, but the growth rate has slowed.

    “The ten-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5 percent on Monday for the first time since 2023. On Tuesday morning, the important market rate continued upward and reached the highest level since 2007, writes CNBC.

    Creditsights’ chief strategist Zach Griffiths believes it could rise towards 5.5 percent.

    – There are many underlying factors indicating that the bond sell-off will continue and interest rates will rise, he told Bloomberg.

    One factor is the rally in oil prices, where Brent crude has risen 18 percent just in September. This has fueled inflation concerns and led the market to price in an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve tomorrow at nearly 94 percent.

    The rising interest rates are pressuring global stock markets, which are simultaneously weighed down by renewed AI concerns following calls from AI giants to slow development.”
    https://omni.se/viktig-usa-ranta-passerar-nivaer-fran-finanskrisen/a/M7G24K

    1. EmigrantJohan

      Not directly surprising that US long-term interest rates are rising. I have pointed out several times that sooner or later the US will also experience a “Liz Truss” moment.

      The Gulf states have been major net buyers of US government bonds in recent years. Exact statistics can probably be obtained, my take is that the UK/London has officially been the largest net buyer of bonds over the past 5 years and I assume that the overwhelming majority of this is the Gulf states acting through intermediaries.
      What revenues have the Gulf states (besides Saudi Arabia) had in the past 6 months?
      If there are fewer buyers, the price of the asset (in this case the interest rate) must go up.

      Add to that that the orange man has announced that every American will get 5000 USD if the Republicans win both the Senate and the Congress; personally, I don’t think that promise is worth anything at all.

      My thesis (which also drives my investment philosophy) is that US long-term interest rates must come down – the only way this can be done is with yield control. With interest-bearing government debt at 32.4 trillion USD, interest will soon correspond to 20-25% of the entire state budget, which is unsustainable.

      My investment advice is that we are in a bull market for commodities, I also recommend precious metals, and I also believe that real estate companies on the stock market will become good investment objects (in Sweden) in a couple of years’ time.

      Best regards
      The Emigrant Investor

  14. johan No.1

    But HOW can someone as a billionaire let Putin pay for their wedding?

    The optics are a disaster.

    Is it “free is always good” that dominates?

     

    1. En Vanlig Persson

      I don’t believe that free is good, I think it’s more like “The more we cozy up to corrupt Russian oligarchs, the better, because lulz.”
      That’s the level the Trump family operates on.

      It should be added that Donald’s sons have previously openly said that they get all the capital they could need “from Russia.” Their business model is to help Russia and get paid for it.

      1. johan No.1

        Yes, it certainly seems to be the case and this will ultimately be Trump’s downfall.

        As soon as all the authorities start investigating this and it comes to light, it cannot be denied.

        But they still have time on their side, the midterm elections will probably be a bit dull for them but they can keep going for another two years.

        Europe and Ukraine will have to try to minimize the damage as best we can and then the US can clean up its own house when they are able to.

  16. MXT

    Off-Topic, the war in Iran and the oil

    We will see if the oil price continues to rise today.

    “Earlier this week, an important oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was damaged in a drone attack, and according to AP’s government sources, it may take several weeks before it is repaired.

    The pipeline transports up to four million barrels per day. The oil price is rising on Tuesday for the second day in a row after the attack.

    Iran-backed militias in Iraq are believed to be behind the attack.

    The pipeline has been crucial for Saudi Arabia’s ability to transport oil out of the country via ports in the Red Sea after the Strait of Hormuz was closed off by Iran.”
    https://omni.se/skadad-saudisk-oljeledning-skakar-marknaden/a/Exe2Vl

  17. johan No.1

    When Trump asks the UA to stop fighting raff and RU is completely silent – then we know that it stings something incredibly 😀

    Ukraine is probably causing real damage now.

  19. MXT

    The night’s attack on Ozon has not yet significantly affected their stock. Down 0.56% so far, and as you can see, it also recovered from the previous decline even though it has overall fallen in the longer term, down 41.82% in the last six months.

  20. johan No.1

    It is a whirlwind of rumors in MENA so difficult to sift through.

    Houthi seems to have gone down from the mountains to the coast and is now stuck. Then there are a thousand other rumors going both ways but this one is geographically accurate. They have desert between where they are sitting on the coast and the mountains.

    In Iran, there is some kind of armed uprising combined with some kind of civilian protests – don’t know how much.

     

  21. MXT

    Pehr, saw that one of your comments required review, missed it yesterday. Have approved it now.

    It is a built-in protection in WP that blocks comments with many outgoing links because it indicates attempts at spam. I have raised the limit from five to ten links previously but would like to keep it at that level for safety. So far, we have been lucky and avoided that kind of nonsense from bots and trolls, but it’s still good to have some limit.

    If a comment gets stuck, please try again but delete the least important links (or split it into two comments). It may take some time before I notice that a review is needed.

      1. CB500four

        WP5.1 on DOS. 🙂 If you wanted to see how it would look when printed, you chose print-preview and then waited, a long time. And then there was the code view, where you could see where you had set indents, changed font or color, etc., I sometimes miss that when Word behaves strangely.

  22. johan No.1

    China has something going on, if I understand correctly (so you can explain later) it is capital controls?

    Pretty extensive with travel bans and all sorts of things.

    The situation in China is probably worse than we are led to believe maybe 😀

  24. johan No.1

    Well MXT, if the USA experiences a stock market crash and some kind of financial crisis, everyone USUALLY runs to US government bonds with emphasis on usually.

    At least I’ve decided to get paid in grill chips and day-old chickens, inflation-protected👍

  26. MXT

    Johan, maybe you have stopped responding to comments and just write a regular message? If so, don’t do that. I’m trying to track what’s happening, but then you also have to respond and not just write regular messages for it to be effective.

    (Assuming you still haven’t tried another browser? Cleared the cache? Possibly disabled ad blockers, etc.?)

  28. MXT

    ** ❗️The 429th “Achilles” Brigade, together with the 43rd Separate Artillery Brigade, struck a Nebo-M radar near Millerovo airfield in Russia’s Rostov region — a site used for regular Shahed launches.

    The strike was carried out with a RAM-2X drone from about 175 km from the front line.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ** Video:

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mvk5kc5wmk2j

  29. MXT

    ** 🇺🇸❗️The “hellish sanctions” bill against Russia passed a vote in the House Rules Committee. The US House Committee approved, by a vote of 7-3, a procedure allowing floor debate on the sanctions bill against Russia and Iran.

    Debate will begin today around noon, and a vote on the rules is expected at 1:30 PM local time. If approved, a final vote on the bill in the House is expected tomorrow afternoon. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mvk5fasg722f

  30. MXT

    ** Russian reports from the Lyman salient say that Ukraine’s counter-offensive is still underway with heavy fighting ongoing. Russian forces are said to be outnumbered two to one by Ukrainians, and have withdrawn to the Zherebets river with a large ‘grey area’ in the salient. 1/32

    ‘Partizan’ reports: “🔻The situation in the Lyman area remains difficult. The negative trend has been developing gradually throughout the summer and is now manifested in active enemy pressure on several fronts simultaneously.” 2/32

    🔻 The line of contact between [the rivers] Nitrius and Zherebets remains unstable. Heavy fighting continues, and the actual control situation in the areas of Shandryholove, Yarova, Ridkodub, Nove, Derilove, and Katerynivka remains uncertain.” 3/32

    … … ** Thread continues:

    https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3mvk5esweqr2d

  31. MXT

    ** Andrii Biletskyi, Commander of the Third Army Corps, officially confirms that Ukrainian Defense Forces cleared Russian infiltration forces from Novoselivka, Oleksandrivka, Yarova, and the outskirts of Korovyi Yar, and liberated Serednie.

    Glory!

    ❗️”We confirm reports of a Ukrainian army offensive in the north of the Donetsk region. Operating under a media blackout, units eliminated pockets of enemy infiltration and cleared an area of ​​75 km². An additional 10 km² has been de-occupied.

    A devastating blow was dealt to the combat capabilities of the Russian 20th and 25th Armies. Enemy losses at this stage include approximately 1,500 soldiers, over 12,000 drones, and hundreds of units of armored vehicles, artillery systems, and motor vehicles. ** Video:

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mvk5466pes2j

    1. johan No.1

      Those are probably the high daily losses we have seen to some extent.

      In that area, there are only two CAAs, these two above, and they are also the ones who carried out the offensive between the rivers that was broken. Don’t know how hundreds of vehicles with 1500 liberated fit, sounds a bit low in personnel.

      Ukraine has now crossed Zherebets and it is only these two CAAs in defense.

      RU has also deprioritized Kostyantynivka to gather units along the Donetsk front south of there, so UA advanced directly in Kostyantynivka.

      Apparently, they were supposed to reinforce the southern front but then information comes that they have withdrawn units from there – messy.

      What is clear, however, is that they have further weakened the Dnipro front.

      RU is behind, they do not have a clear picture, and UA is inside their decision circle – good, good.

       

      1. CB500four

        It is noticeable from the troll activity that things are going badly for Russia, the worst I saw was someone claiming to have worked for the Trump administration who said that 36 Ukrainians die for every Russian :-D.

  35. johan No.1

    Darn, UA is really making progress now 😀

    I’ll probably have to post a front walkthrough when I get time because this looks really good.

  36. Pehr

    Is anyone surprised?
    Low-affect approach does not work on Russian bastards.
    “Sabotage is suspected to be the cause of an operational disruption that has affected parts of train traffic in the Netherlands. This is reported by several local media.
    Pipes that were ‘intentionally placed on the tracks’ at several locations have reportedly been found, RTL writes.
    ‘Our employees are working hard to remove these materials and make the situation safe,’ says the railway operator Pro Rail.
    There is currently no suspicion as to who or what may be behind the sabotage. It is also unclear when train traffic can return to normal.”
    https://omni.se/a/k0VLp6

      1. Pehr

        I exclusively use Safari on iPhone 13 and have never experienced the problems that Johan has.
        However, the page sometimes goes haywire and scrolls uncontrollably upwards when I try to make a post.
        This is resolved by closing the page and opening a new one.

  38. MXT

    Johan, I didn’t get much wiser after my first logging, so I have expanded it.

    Please write another reply comment, for example on this post.
    “Reply on the mobile” so I can check that comment’s ID and trace what happens.

  40. johan No.1

    Drones in Lithuania were on their way to a hydroelectric power plant and were shot down.

    Yes, jamming against drones is okay, it works in Ukraine.

    They have difficulty with missiles, especially ballistic ones.

  41. SneakyPete

    This was probably damn well the best analysis …it has surely been said before but not as clearly, distinctly, and simply
    —-
    After Trump’s representatives traveled to Moscow, hope is rekindled for negotiations regarding the war
    in Ukraine. But those who believe Putin has a strategy with the invasion miss something crucial.

    “Russia cannot
    be understood with rea-
    son
    cannot be measured with
    ordinary measures…”
    These are the most quoted
    lines of the Russian national poet
    Fyodor Tyutchev (translated by Per-Arne
    Bodin). They are used just as well by
    those who want to say something appreciative
    about Russia as by those
    who want to say the exact opposite.
    In short: a quote for all occasions.
    The lines have been quoted to death by
    Russians and Slavists worldwide.
    Yet it is hard to find anything
    more fitting when you see Western
    politicians trying to understand
    Russia with reason.
    After CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s
    unexpected visit to Moscow a few
    weeks ago, and thereafter Trump’s special
    envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s trips to Mos-
    cow and Kiev, it looks like
    the peace negotiations have been revived.
    As I understand it,
    Donald Trump, when he fails to get anything to go his way in Iran,
    urgently needs some form of peace agreement to sign. An end
    to Russia’s war against Ukraine
    probably fits well.
    Looking at the matter pragmatically,
    that is with reason, it is actually a good
    opportunity for the Kremlin to negotiate. Russia’s military and
    economic situation is unlikely to improve – rather
    the opposite. And this at the same time as
    the country is marked by a social and
    political crisis and growing war
    fatigue.
    Sure, Putin probably hopes
    that things are not going particularly well for
    Ukraine either and that he therefore
    can afford to wait. But really
    it is not even about what he
    hopes for. As things stand, neither
    party is likely to make
    any major territorial gains –
    or losses – in this war anymore.
    But the war must be seen through
    Putin’s own eyes – not through those of
    the American envoys, not
    through Western politicians’, and
    not even through the well-informed
    intelligence services’.
    Many still seem to see the war as
    a strategy – bloody, extremely bru-
    tal and inhuman, but nevertheless a
    strategy with some kind of plan
    and an end goal. A means to
    achieve something. To conquer Ukrainian
    territory, overthrow the country’s gov-
    ernment and install a puppet
    president dependent on Russia,
    satisfy imperialist
    ambitions, or something else along
    those lines.
    But for Putin, the war is not a
    means. The war is the goal itself. A
    thing in itself. An independent political
    reality.
    For in this political reality
    Putin can remain in power.
    By the end of 2021, the situation in
    Russia had become such that the poli-
    tical elite began to grow seriously tired
    of both Putin and the sanctions.
    They were admittedly not very harsh
    at that time, but still created
    quite a few problems for many.
    In Moscow, persistent rumors then
    circulated that the “elite” was
    discussing the possibility of a
    “Kazakhstan scenario.” Kazakhstan’s
    longtime leader Nursultan
    Nazarbayev had left the presi-
    dency but retained his
    other positions of power, not least
    within national security.
    As a reward for voluntarily giving up
    the presidency, the country’s capital was
    renamed after him.
    A couple of years later, Nazarbayev also left
    his remaining posts, the capital got back
    its old name, and he finally went into full retirement.
    With all his wealth intact.
    For the Russian elite, such a
    scenario for Putin was highly
    attractive. For Putin himself, it was
    definitely not.
    Support for Putin among
    the population had by then also
    dropped sharply. Besides the general
    fatigue with an aging
    president and dissatisfaction with the
    economic crisis, the very unpopular pension reform
    in 2018, which raised the retirement
    age, contributed to the collapse in public
    opinion – even before the reform, far from all Russian
    men lived to retirement age. Added to this were constitutional amendments
    that made it possible
    for Putin to practically remain
    in power indefinitely.
    The people of Russia had indeed never had much
    say, and the elite would hardly have dared a coup.
    But Putin seems to have felt that the ground
    was starting to shake beneath him.
    The war appeared as the only
    way to stay in power. And thereby put an end
    to hopes that he
    would voluntarily retire. As if he, on the verge of losing a game of chess, simply swept
    the pieces off the board and struck the opponent
    with the board.
    Sure, “Kyiv in three days,” as
    was talked about so much in Rus-
    sia at the start of the war, would
    of course have been nice, and Putin
    was quite disappointed by his army’s
    incompetence. But it hardly
    broke his heart.
    His goal was already achieved:
    the elite rallied behind him and
    stood, for the most varied reasons,
    behind the war. The economy was
    quickly converted to war production.
    Hundreds of thousands of Russian men were sent
    to slaughter – and thus
    kept away from social problems and
    possible uprisings. And the entire education
    system, from preschool to
    university, was made part of
    a propagandistic and militaristic machine that indoctrinates a new generation, so that
    blind loyalty and hatred of everything
    outside Russia becomes part of
    its identity.
    The state of war is an ideal
    situation for Putin and the security
    service FSB, which he relies on,
    and it is definitely not in
    their interest to change anything.
    But in September 2026, Putin finds himself
    in exactly the same situation as
    in winter 2021–2022, when he made
    the decision to start the full-scale
    war against Ukraine.
    A population tired of
    the war. An exhausted elite wanting to
    end the war, get rid of sanctions, and return to business as
    usual. No, not even the forces that
    have supported the war all along see
    any meaning in the bloodbath anymore: one
    and a half million dead and wounded Russians – without Russia even
    having managed to conquer all of Donbass.
    That Putin’s time in power may soon
    be over is something now
    discussed both by war-supporting militarists inside Russia
    and by the anti-war opposition
    living in exile. Everyone feels
    something is in the air. It is starting
    to ferment, although no one knows what we
    really have to expect.
    Maybe it is right now that Putin will once
    again sweep the pieces
    off the chessboard.
    In recent weeks, international
    media have discussed the
    two most obvious scenarios:
    a military escalation or
    intensified sabotage activities
    in Europe. Both options seem
    supported by recent sabotage in Germany and Poland, as well as
    military redeployments indicating preparations for an
    offensive. At the same time, Rus-
    sia lacks resources for an escalation of
    a magnitude that could
    fundamentally change the situation.
    But time is running out for
    Putin, and within the next
    few months some
    sort of action is needed – to use one
    of his own favorite expressions.
    What options might Putin
    consider? Will it be an attack
    on one of the Baltic countries? A political assassination? A terror
    attack? (I do not want to fuel
    fear of a nuclear escalation. I do not think Russia
    will go that far. But
    again – that is if one reasons
    with reason.)
    The new plan does not need to be
    militarily or strategically
    rational or even advantageous for
    Russia. Perhaps quite the opposite. For
    Putin, the most important goal –
    and the result of all his planning – is a Russia that is
    at war.
    It cannot be understood with reason.

    Liza Alexandrova-Zorina is
    a Russian journalist and author
    living in Sweden. Read more texts at
    SvD.se/liza-alexandrova-

    1. CB500four

      Well, Putin is stuck in the war as long as he cannot present a victory. It is harder to justify the control, propaganda, and oppression of the own population when the war ends.

      Then, when the disillusioned, alcoholic, brutalized soldiers with PTSD and physical injuries return to a society struggling to transition from a war economy to a civilian economy and where no social safety nets exist, the population will be worse off than before, if possible.

  42. johan No.1

    There you go, SD offers to stay outside the government if C votes for a Tidö agreement.

    Then it will be the same as the previous four years with the difference that C now also has influence, and L is stable.

    Very big changes have already been voted through so we just need a government that doesn’t remove anything and I am basically satisfied, it will continue moving in the right direction quickly.

    Ulf will probably stay until he is voted down and C has members of parliament to relate to as well, if they make a full left turn they can face wild cards.

    C went to the election to keep SD out of government and now they get that.

    Waiting for the abyssal scream on X about the threat to democracy and that it is 1931 in a few weeks 😀

    Unless the Thailand Swedes and Malaga Moderates completely tip it over on Wednesday of course, but it is said that they are included in the forecasts.

    My 15,000 Dominicans who voted for L will probably be in soon as well.

    1. HW

      Also saw that, but it requires C to drop its red line of never having anything to do with SD in any way. This will probably lead to some internal betrayal debate within SD and some lost voters to AfS or similar, but it likely shows responsibility to be able to continue the established line with Tidö that can attract even more.

      Then, as you write, if C moves to the left, it only takes two of the Centre Party’s members of parliament to get tired and go to M for Tidö to be secured, and at the same time, nothing is certain before Thursday.

  45. MXT

    ** ❗️The Third Army Corps provides more details on the Ukrainian offensive operation “Vivaldi” in the north of Donetsk Oblast. Novoselivka, Oleksandrivka, Yarova, the outskirts of Korovyi Yar have been cleared of infiltration, and Serednie has been liberated.

    In total, 75 km² have been cleared. Another 10 km² have been de-occupied. Russian losses are estimated at around 1,500 soldiers, over 12,000 drones, and hundreds of units of armored vehicles, artillery systems, and motor vehicles. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mvkt7t4aqk2k

  48. johan No.1

    Now DAMN 🤣🤣

    Australia has also decided to do like Canada and seek to join the EU, that is, not as a full member but some special deal.

    What damn winners we are becoming now.

    Yes, we have to protect our newfound friends if needed but they choose us.

    Canada and Australia have all the natural resources one could wish for.

    China out China out.

     

  49. johan No.1

    MXT, I don’t dare to clear the cache because then I guess I’ll have to log in again to everything?

    I also only use Safari but maybe I should try another browser?

    You seem to have fiddled enough with that now it feels like, maybe we have to accept that I am the unwanted child.

  52. MacMelmac

    S-toppen sharpens the tone against Kristersson: “Should admit defeat”

    Has the fool missed that the real result comes only on Thursday? Baudin is probably the most unsympathetic person walking around!

    2. MXT

      I agree, that is completely unnecessary. The election is not yet decided, although the likelihood of there being any decisive difference is very low.

      1. MacMelmac

        Up to 300,000 votes from abroad and late advance votes. There is a difference of about 30,000 between the blocs. Things can still happen, right?

        1. Bal

          Of course, if there are three minutes left in a football match and you are winning, it is perfectly fine to finish the match.

          Either he is a bit inflexible in his mental capacity or he is afraid that the result will change.

    1. CB500four

      He is probably quite right there.

      The Russians believe that they cannot manage without Ukraine, because in the Soviet Union it was the case that a large part of the production of more advanced equipment was located in Ukraine, that was where the best engineers and factory workers were.

  54. MXT

    Off-Topic

    It didn’t take long before Gellerbrant was welcome back in the fold again, but who let him in without a pass card? 😄.

    “SD official Gustav Gellerbrant participated in the party’s crisis meeting in the parliament today, reports TV4 News.

    This despite the fact that a week ago he went on parental leave and handed in his pass card and computer to the Government Offices.

    He went on leave after the magazine Expo revealed that his partner, also an SD official, had shared pro-Russian content on social media. Gellerbrant justified the leave by saying he did not want to distract from the election campaign.

    Neither Gellerbrant nor SD have commented.”
    https://omni.se/gellerbrant-med-pa-sd-mote-trots-ledigheten/a/Exeeja

      1. MXT

        Still strange that he decided to take parental leave if he now thinks that he is innocent and then come back immediately after the election?

        2. HW

          It was probably purely a tactical move at the time, to remove the question about his partner from the agenda.
          Returning now after a poor election is not surprising either; he has been one of the party builders for a long time.

  55. MXT

    Off-Topic, political advertising in the mailbox.

    Now, it may not have looked the same everywhere, but when it comes to political direct mail in the mailbox, SD has gone all out ahead of the election where I live. I’ve never received so much advertising in any previous election.

    It started already in the spring and during the summer, I probably got 4-5 A5 sheets about once a month.
    Quite cleverly designed because the messages were linked not only to Gävle but specifically to the district where I live. Admittedly, they received quite harsh criticism. One of the messages read roughly “We will make sure that xxx school is not closed down.” People became worried because they had no idea that the school was threatened with closure, and of course, that was because it wasn’t.

    There was some writing about it, but the message reached many who probably missed that closure was not actually on the table. So even though it backfired to some extent, it was probably still smart. A bit like when companies advertise that their products certainly do not contain the terrible substance xxxx, even though no products contain it.

    Anyway, then when the election started to approach, first came another simple sheet.
    Then, two weeks in a row, their yellow brochure with the bumblebee on it.
    A week later, a “made-up” newspaper appeared, SD-Kuriren, quite lavish.
    The week after, a large long narrow thing with the message “That’s why I chose SD” with a local politician here in town.
    Finally, during election week, an envelope with Jimmie on the front.
    (I have to say that his signature, which looks like a saber, is actually nice; curious if it looks like that in real life too).

    From the other parties, I saw one mailing each except from KD, which sent out two. Of course, I may have missed something (and possibly something more from SD).

    This must have cost a lot of money, even if the distribution was probably done voluntarily.
    Since SD declined, one might almost think it had the opposite effect.

    How did it look for the rest of you?

    Was it only here in Gävle that so much time and money was spent on postal mailings, or did you also notice that you received an unusually large amount? Maybe it was instead some other party that dominated your mailbox/letterbox?

      1. MXT

        Ok, a bit the same feeling with you as well. Is SD strong where you live?

        Here it looks roughly like in the parliamentary election but with a small difference, S, M and SD get a few percentage points more than in that.

        I thought that if you are strong locally, you might be willing to invest more as well.

        1. Jan W

          I actually can’t answer that question. It’s as if what happens in the municipality hardly gets noticed. Overshadowed by Stockholm and rijet if you don’t show direct interest. There is a local paper that drops into the mailbox. Read very rarely.

    2. Pehr

      S was offensive as usual and M was clever with a personally addressed letter warning of higher taxes. Otherwise, it was quite evenly distributed.

      1. MXT

        Seems to be a bit mixed overall. Maybe a lot depends on the local politicians and how much time and money they want to invest (and how much representation each party has in each location).

        1. Pehr

          That is for sure. M became the largest party in the parliamentary election in my constituency. But I chose Simona. And it was not a tactical choice as all the experts claim.

  58. MXT

    Off-Topic, the midterm election

    “Donald Trump is not satisfied that the US Supreme Court has rejected the request to limit mail-in voting in the midterm election this fall. He writes this on Truth Social.

    ‘It is a big loss for the Republicans and the USA, and makes it much easier for the radical left’s “dumbocrats” to cheat with mail-in ballots.’

    Trump has long claimed that mail-in voting increases the risk of election fraud, despite the lack of evidence for widespread fraud. But through the Supreme Court decision, the ballots will be sent out as usual in the midterm election.”
    https://omni.se/hd-nekar-trumps-begaran-om-att-stoppa-postrosterna/a/aJ99jd

      1. Pehr

        He really puts into words the inability of Western politicians, or rather their fear, of letting Putin lose or holding the Russian devils accountable.

  60. Pehr

    Off topic Krasnov and the interest rates.
    DI:
    Interest rate fear: Warsh and Trump out in deep water
    The US central bank Fed most likely has no alternatives to raising the interest rate on Wednesday. President Donald Trump, who wanted a rate cut with Kevin Warsh, has only made the job harder for the new Fed chief.

    Javeus: Sooner or later the interest rate becomes a problem
    How much does the US central bank chief Kevin Warsh listen to President Donald Trump?
    How much does the US central bank chief Kevin Warsh listen to President Donald Trump? Photo: Alex Brandon

    The Fed’s first rate hike in three years is announced with just over 90 percent probability on Wednesday evening Swedish time, according to the interest rate market. Historically, futures pricing shortly before a Fed announcement has been a reliable indicator, since the Fed very rarely wants to shock with unexpected decisions.

    The movement in long market interest rates has several drivers, but tighter central banks have contributed to the US ten-year rate climbing this week just above the fear level of 5 percent to the highest level since 2007.

    A slightly hotter core inflation than expected according to the CPI for August, a strong August report for US jobs, and the hawkish tones in Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s speech at the central bank conference Jackson Hole have dramatically raised expectations of a rate hike.

    Above all, Warsh called for more evidence to become “convinced that underlying inflation is approaching the target, clearly and at a sufficient pace.”

    Since then, the oil price has also risen from just under 90 to 108 dollars per barrel, and US diesel prices have risen to record levels. This points to further inflation impulses.

    But the expected Fed hike is theoretically far from a given decision. If food and fuel prices are excluded, the inflation picture changes – measured by core CPI, the price increase on an annual basis fell for the third month in a row in August to 2.4 percent, from 2.9 in May. And continued slowdown in wage growth points to low wage inflation, despite surprising job growth.

    This can still give dovish Fed members some room to maneuver.

    Kevin Warsh got his job from President Donald Trump with the explicit mission to work for a lower key interest rate. Therefore, it is ironic that Trump’s Iran war is behind the oil price increase. And that Warsh on his own also seems to be bungling away the straws that still existed to avoid a rate hike.

    At Jackson Hole, Warsh suddenly seemed to be on a collision course with Trump. But an alternative interpretation among several analysts was that the Fed chief, new in the post since May, just wanted to scare.

    Somewhat firm, but non-committal formulations, according to the interpretation, would be an attempt to talk down the risks of rising inflation expectations. This would create opportunities to simultaneously keep the key rate unchanged and wait for a clearer underlying inflation decline – perhaps with a little help from a soon resolution of the Hormuz crisis.

    But the unexpectedly dramatic resurgence of the oil price may have caused market participants to interpret the Fed chief more literally than planned. And now he has painted himself into a corner.

    Donald Trump’s continued calls for lower rates have only made things worse. They open up a double confidence crisis if the Fed’s hike does not happen on Wednesday, which if anything only pushes market rates further upwards.

    Kevin Warsh would be flayed for both terrible communication and for being the White House’s puppet.

    The Warsh and Trump firm have tangled things up for themselves. Misguided attempts to avoid a rate hike have instead driven both long and short US rates higher.

    https://www.di.se/mobil/analys/ranteskracken-warsh-och-trump-ute-pa-djupt-vatten/

    1. MXT

      Yes, it can become quite difficult in the long run with higher interest rates, and even if there is no increase now, the market will probably still go in that direction.

      Initially, it can be good for the dollar, as more people invest in bonds in the USA that offer good interest, but at the same time it increases the cost of the national debt, which is already sky-high.

      This may force cuts that in turn lead to more unemployment. Not to mention the negotiations when the debt ceiling has to be raised again later, which can become really tough if the Democrats take over the Senate or the House (or both).

      For now, the economy is still doing quite well in the USA and inflation has not yet run rampant. Mostly because wage increases are below inflation, so it is households that bear a large part of the costs with lower real wages, but several companies have also seen their margins shrink.

      If demands for wage increases come to counteract the higher living costs while companies are forced to raise prices, it can become quite challenging to keep inflation down. We also have tariffs that push prices up even though they contribute a little to the state treasury.

      What if the AI bubble bursts as well? Even though people all over the world will lose money, it is American companies that will be hit the hardest.. 

      The coming year could be exciting!

  62. MXT

    ** ❗️The Netherlands plans to allocate over €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2027. This was announced by the country’s Ministry of Defence during the presentation of the defence budget. Priorities will include repair of already transferred equipment, unmanned systems and air defence. The ministry stressed that amid intensifying Russian attacks such support remains critically important.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ **

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mvlaupytcs2r
  63. MXT

    Good, they can’t just go after the Old Man like that and think they can get away with it!

    “Two police officers in Norrbotten are being prosecuted for misconduct following an intervention last April, when a man in his 70s was taken into custody for intoxication. This is reported by SVT Norrbotten. The man, who uses a walker, was drinking beer at a bus station. During the intervention, the police wrestled him down and used a stun gun on him. Later, a colleague of the officers raised the alarm about what he perceived as excessive force – a stance now shared by the prosecutor. – He has been subjected to a miscarriage of justice, says the man’s legal representative Marko Tuhkanen to SVT.”

    https://omni.se/a/8pMMvd

  65. MXT

    Good morning!

    1530 KWIA

    5 AFVs

    27 Artillery systems

    1 MLRS

    4 Air defense systems

    789 UAVs

    4 UGVs

    374 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

    2 Special equipment

    Glory to Ukraine

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