09:55
Have you noticed that the refinery attacks have stopped.
No oil depots are being bombed, the Kerch Bridge is not being bombed, the drone swarms seem to have quieted down too?
And the other six ammunition depots in the vicinity.
Why then?
Ukraine does not lack drones if you are to believe the production figures, and Russian air defense is getting weaker and weaker.
10:02
I’ve thought the same thing – that UA paused ahead of the meeting in the USA.
Now in hindsight, there are several possible outcomes – they could, for example, try to reach a mutual ceasefire in the strategic bombing war before RU starts the autumn rocket rain?
Or something has been said behind closed doors in the meetings?
We can only watch what happens and it has gone from beautiful mushroom clouds to complete silence.
10:18
There is also another possibility if you want to look -positively-positive- at this. Ukraine is now free from the USA and can do as they please.
They have already shown that they dare to go against the USA with Kursk.
Could it be that they have enough to continue boldly on the chosen path?
Will they storm across the border at the northern front with further attack vectors?
Will the Azov strike come?
Will all the ammunition depots be bombed away?
I don’t know how it goes in the closed meetings in Ukraine but wild ideas can have fatal consequences – ask Finland 1944.
If they make that decision, they are all-in and it is do or die, which is quite a big decision to make for an entire country.
If it is decided at the next meeting, we are only a few weeks away from seeing it.
10:22
There is an active FSB agent at the Meta office in Berlin 😲
https://x.com/golub/status/1839725838297715117?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
You have to give Putin credit for actually managing to take Reagan’s burning hatred of communism and the country that brought down the Soviet Union and reshape it into this mess we have today – hats off.
Russia is unfortunately experts in their subversive activities and the West is hopelessly behind – and it is starting to pay off for Putin. The criminal clan has learned that crime pays.
Standing and hacking up live prisoners in Africa with an axe didn’t even cause a yawn from the West – where is the outcry we see whenever an I…el pushes someone in P…a (I’m maybe not being entirely fair right now…) and the whole media lights up.
10:25
Ukraine defends the principle, international law, our world order since 1945 and all that – they want the West to have as a goal that their territorial integrity is inviolable.
If we reach a point of giving up land, Ukraine couldn’t care less if they lose ground in eastern Ukraine really. Today it is devastated, depopulated and those who remain are ardent pro-Russians.
There will probably be some deal where those who want to move to Ukraine can and the FSB sneaks in a bunch of sleeper agents.
A bit like if we were to give up land in the northernmost part of Norrland when all options are exhausted.
10:55
Negotiations are announced for this autumn, whether it is November or December I don’t know.
Zelensky is ready with his peace plan which everyone has rejected and Putin says he doesn’t intend to come.
Surely you have followed that discussion?
Yes, Putin will likely demand a ceasefire to show up and China will support that – to save the children and generously give everyone peace in our time.
The likelihood that the rest of the West thinks that is a brilliant idea to end the war is unfortunately sky-high.
I grew up with Fälldin, a tough guy 👍
12:40
This might spread some joy – Strelkov has heart problems
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1839974795166847063?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:42
Darth Putin is accurate as usual.
“Escalation management” has shown North Korea to be a better ally than USA is.
https://x.com/darthputinkgb/status/1839341709672767969?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:03
Maybe that was a bit of an overgeneralization but in those parts yes – if you criticize Biden you support Trump and something else I’ve forgotten.
So now I’ve let it go and discuss the consequences of Biden’s actions instead and then apparently it’s doomsday mood in the thread 🤣
I’m trying to understand what applies but I think it is the following –
-do not criticize Biden.
-do not criticize the consequences of Biden’s actions.
-support Ukraine all the way.
13:36
😲
I am back 😁
(tomorrow there will be a whole post about that demented man with lice again who just threw Ukraine straight under the bus 🤢)
13:58
Yes Denmark 😁
And Ukraine when they didn’t get the equipment.
This is a discussion we had in the thread autumn 2023/winter 2024 and my argument was that everything was in the warehouses.
Then during 2024 and when the USA got going, it was delivered from “Pentagon stocks” and others in the EU took from their emergency reserves.
The Czech ammunition can probably be suspected to come from certain countries’ emergency reserves but they keep quiet.
What do you get to phase out and empty from?
Countries can take 5% – 25% for example?
14:16
Darth Putin continues delivering all day today, he is fiery
https://x.com/darthputinkgb/status/1839955207163154503?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:21
Since much is secret, we simply do not know but we can get some glimpses.
For example, that the USA has decommissioned 4.5mm DPICM 155mm shells that Biden could have sent without the Senate’s or Congress’s approval (whichever it was).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/
When the Czechs started probing, half of Europe contributed to it – but that came only in 2024.
Now the Czechs’ 155mm was NOT new production.
So the ammunition DID exist in the emergency reserves, and it was sent LATER.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage/
So there was definitely ammunition always if you are to believe Kiev Independent and Forbes 😀
16:55
Putin has already started his influence operation on both Finland and the Baltic states, in Finland it is probably some area that belonged to Russia for a while in the 1800s (I don’t remember the details but it was mentioned).
Testing Article 5 is probably a given second move if they get away with Ukraine (which the entire eastern border is now preparing for…).
The purpose is not to conquer anything so anything in the wilderness is fine and then you dig in and mine and run light infantry, artillery and air umbrella
Then all EU experts and military have made a big mistake – they look at RU production figures (which were too high) but if the USA doesn’t set any limits, RU will be able to be mechanized China-style again in two years.
If there are no consequences, it is a natural next step if China feels the edge will be directed against the EU.
Now we have escalated to blast-protected jeeps so the step over golf carts. Then it is probably armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.
Considering that RU has quite good training in drone weapons and China’s production capacity, the EU is probably still behind when it comes to drone weapons – now I’m just guessing but I don’t think any country in the EU has made any direct effort?
16:59
The devil is probably in the details – what is their definition of winning?
I have for a very long time wondered if the EU/USA have done their risk management and what the risk list looks like – DOES the West KNOW that Ukraine will be able to hold out?
That Zelensky will politically get through the winter’s RU missile attacks?
That the army will not continue to retreat?
Unfortunately, I come to the conclusion that the West does not know (because Ukraine doesn’t know either) but maybe that is not the runaway point – maybe when we get there then it will be negotiations and the West does not see that as a catastrophic development and a big loss?
I back that up with, for example, Scholz airing the word negotiation not so long ago.
21:36
A thinly veiled threat from Lavrov that the West should not help Ukraine win because Russia has nuclear weapons
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1840104469935075629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:37
So it was at the UN that Lavrov threatened nuclear war.
21:37
Second after the king
08:35
Seventh but Yeysk airfield droneed – 60 Kinzal knocked out.
The airfield is in the nearby area 😳
https://x.com/vyshnyaostap/status/1840172531958858092?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:37
7600 drones in Chinese drone show.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1840111737435238801?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
10:30
Seems like not only the airfield got hit but also an ammunition depot?
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1840282332973916361?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
09:41
Some in the thread will like this – since we are now past Biden’s non-support for Ukraine’s victory plan and know that nothing came of it, there is no reason to comment on the USA, Biden, or Trump going forward. The US election is completely uninteresting.
My final thoughts today in the next post, but here we shall discuss the consequences of the US position.
Have you, like me, noticed very superficial information about the aid package, no detailed lists and no commitments on delivery dates – nothing that will be loaded onto transport planes anytime soon, so the risk of old Social Democratic delays is probably quite high.
The post below is not negative or written in anger – it is an analysis of the situation and the hope was placed on this meeting.
Yes, there is always the wildcard that the Russian opposition might get a feeling, but we cannot speculate on that outcome since that decision never came up in the committee.
How does Ukraine feel the meeting went? Probably like this even though it is NYT.
https://x.com/euromaidanpr/status/1839690052592423263?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
In Ukraine there is quite a lot of worry that the West does not want them to win – this question is often aired, I think we have read, and those who still believe in the West ask HOW the West wants Ukraine to win instead.
UA will be forced to negotiations in November, I read into this, others read something completely different.
But we have previously heard that there will be peace negotiations this fall and that is also what Zelensky is trying to gather support for – his victory plan that was rejected in the USA.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3l55p3kk6jc2w
You might remember the discussion about the best possible negotiating position we had before the Kursk offensive started?
This is pure speculation because I don’t know how widespread this is yet but “the West” (who?) is probably starting to lean towards UA having to give up land so that this war ends sometime. It is probably on the table because it is the only thing that will get Putin to a meeting.
Very high chance/risk (depending on whether you are Scholz, Zelensky, Putin, Biden – and you can decide for yourselves who sees it as a chance or a risk) that it all starts with a ceasefire and then discussions will follow.
So if there is now some political maneuvering around the whole thing and everyone says that Ukraine shall win but there is a ceasefire and everyone stands in the defense systems they have dug – is that giving up land or not?
I know what I think but you can be sure that our divine leaders will have a completely different view on that matter – Ukraine’s territorial integrity is the highest priority and Ukraine must WIN, just not in which century.
Just like in 2023, support will be stopped if UA refuses. In autumn 2023 the West tried to force Ukraine to the negotiating table but the country still believed well of the West – they were naive simply like any Swedish politician always is when caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
The West (yes, the name is bad but I continue to use it) dangles EU membership (which I think will be dragged out but now I am speculating) and security guarantees. We all know that security guarantees are meaningless but Ukraine has to take what is on the table, right? That Russia has broken all agreements with Ukraine in the last 300 years is a minor detail.
And that the West did not honor the Budapest Memorandum is not so important either.
If you have listened and not just sat trying to win an election, Zelensky has said this repeatedly. Ukraine has tried to get the best possible negotiating position ahead of these negotiations but “the West” (I don’t know who besides Joe Biden is driving this, at least Scholz) has not allowed Ukraine to get the best possible negotiating position.
Slander someone shouts directly, don’t criticize Biden – no, the best negotiating position this fall would be to do exactly what Russia will soon do and shoot away those 100 targets for a month.
Because you know what Russia will soon start – its missile rain against ALL high-value targets in Ukraine. And no one stops them, only Ukraine has been stopped.
And the nuclear power plants since Khakovka had absolutely zero consequences together with NS1-2 so why would it have consequences for Putin if he permanently puts the nuclear power plants out of usable condition?
You might remember the following from my short and world-leading texts-
-the broad strokes will be painted in 2024
-there will be a MEKOFFENSIVE 2024
-forget 2025 and lots of offensives that some are pushing, it is this year that it will be decided.
Yes, Ukraine has shown that they can pull something out of the hat when we least expect it but Ukraine is also just ordinary people and this is not Star Wars.
Ukraine thought that with Kursk they could show strength and finally catch the West’s interest but the West just wants this to end – it is uncomfortable and Zelensky is annoying.
The NATO meeting 2023 he was called ungrateful, we all remember that well.
Zelensky should have understood this already in 2023 when the result of the spring offensive was withdrawn support for 8 months as thanks (punishment).
Yes, Ukraine has offensive capacity left but the West has deliberately withheld promised equipment so that 14 of the brigades do not have equipment. To be able to go on the offensive in 2023 they stole everything from certain brigades to equip the spearhead.
Am I right or wrong, we will know before Christmas.
I hold a small hope that Ukraine reaches the right countries in the EU and that they get to break free from the developing country USA but it is like a tealight in a winter storm outdoors in a field – can be extinguished at any time.
There are also other contingencies like Poland understanding what is at stake and joining the war now instead of living under threat for another 70 years but now I am going off into the wildest speculations.
In these negotiations, which will start with a ceasefire because otherwise Russia will not even come to the meeting, there will be no martial law, there will be no war reparations, prisoners will be released and children returned but Russia will not care or they will come back castrated and it will have no consequences, Putin will not dangle.
Russia will give up some land so the West can present this as peace in our time and wave a signed paper when they stand on the airplane stairs – completely without historical awareness.
And above all, Russia’s imperial ambitions will not be extinguished and our time’s great global conflict was not stamped out when it was at its weakest.
Ukraine has done what they could but the disinterest from the West is too dense.
You know just like me that Russia is on the rise and that countries in the EU and NATO are next, and that an alliance of evil has been formed, but it is probably easier to do nothing for now.
What have you heard from the weather vane Macron lately, he is always the first to turn?
Scholz, he floated negotiations a few weeks ago, didn’t he?
At some point, Ukraine will realize that the least painful option is to give up territories in the east. It is not a natural force or natural development – it is a consequence of direct decisions from, for example, Joe Biden, Scholz, Macron, Starmer, and all the others. Kier Starmer is probably still waiting for a reply to that letter?
When Ukraine needed our help, we turned away, I thought we had learned from the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Yugoslavia, and all the others where we turned away, but I must admit that one of the best expressions coined is – history repeats itself.
Ukraine will come out victorious from this – in the long run, they will be part of the EU and future generations will be included in the West thanks to the sacrifices of the current generation.
But before that, the FSB and its subversive activities will sink their claws into the country and do their utmost to reverse the development in Ukraine, but we can hope that Budanov is on the ball.
The big losers are us in the West and especially those of us close to Russia – now we had the chance to free ourselves from 300 years of war crimes but we made an active choice not to do so.
There are many with hidden agendas in this mess but this is probably how it looks – either Russia loses this or we do. There is no future where everyone wins.
Ukraine dared to stand up to the schoolyard bully and thought that would be enough for the classmates to see them, but they turned away.
When the bully came back with a kitchen knife and Ukraine turned to the teacher for help, the teacher said, “You only have yourself to blame for picking a fight with the bully.”
When Kursk started, do you remember the film with Zelensky’s smile?
Ukraine has no backdoor into the West – they don’t understand more than what they see and they thought the West would listen to them when they invaded Russia at Kursk – that they then showed they are a formidable ally who deserves a place in the drawing rooms.
They showed strength like no one else since the Finnish Winter War.
History’s judgment will be harsh and those who think they have saved their reputation will be remembered as spineless career politicians who made Chamberlain look like a great warmonger.
Everyone has chosen a side, I stand on Ukraine’s side, you cannot stand on everyone’s side in the real world.