12:26
Time got away, I had another “normal” post in progress but now I have to run to the Sunday gym and then it might be too late to finish and post it.
Yep – it was probably a pause for the meeting in the USA that stopped the liberation raids on ammunition depots and airbases.
An ammunition depot and an airbase were welcome news to say the least 🤩
Why does RU have 60 Kinzal near Ukraine, I wondered.
Then I have also wondered how much of RU’s missile stockpile Ukraine has managed to blow up in the past weeks…
You all saw Dengamle struggling ahead of Budanov in Kharkiv, right?
He spins around like a pinball between all the hot spots and I will get an update this week on what’s coming next here.
At least I think this was a hilarious reaction when a friend and lawyer for civilians in P..a who is on the news in the UK heard that Nasrallah had fallen.
https://x.com/k0sher_c0ckney/status/1840158692500492468?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Also have to remind that RU milbloggers have for quite some time been suggesting that they believe UA will launch a new offensive in October and that is approaching 😀
And some other things but maybe that will be tomorrow’s discussion.
14:03
If you think about my post above, the point is not that Lavrov manages to fool the USA. You, I and everyone else in the thread have seen Zelensky jump on all of Putin’s lines throughout an entire war and he just turns around so no one can see him cry.
The point is that the stated strategy from the USA is to avoid escalation and the USA themselves have repeatedly given as a reason for not sending anything that it was to avoid escalation and nuclear war.
So I have therefore pointed out the absurdity of that position since Lavrov will naturally try that old trick again, this time at the UN.
When I read your last paragraph – can one vote for you in the municipal election 😀
14:44
I am honestly worried that 2.5 years into the war the West has not scaled up enough.
In, for example, Lithuania the brigade is not yet in place.
In the Baltics the fortifications and mine lines have not been completed.
There are about 1000 there if I remember correctly?
The EU should have had a reinforced mechanized division in place by now one would think and should have stepped in to help the Baltics mine the border.
14:47
What is said outwardly is that there is a concern about escalation.
Yes, it’s not unreasonable that what they fear is implosion.
Historically Russia has increased pressure until they collapse and then there is an “implosion” of the whole.
The first revolution, the second revolution and then 1989.
A high-intensity war seems to be fuel for that.
The conclusion in the West should be that it is not compatible to both want Ukraine to win the war and then that Russia does not implode – the probability of getting both is low.
But yes, it is probably on the table in discussions.
14:49
A good point, Biden could send a lot without Congress’s/Senate’s (whichever they were…) approval and then Trump could do the same – but to Russia?
Then he can absolutely start removing sanctions and I believe he has already said he will do that so then it’s free to do business with Russia again.
And then he can start closing bases and bringing everything home for America First ✊ and Say No To War ✊
15:46
Millerovo also took a hit yesterday
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1840329782351061381?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:48
Barnaul Russia
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1840357294330056769?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:08
The USA said that RU moved all aircraft beyond 300km so the value of ATACMS against RU targets was small/zero.
So why is UA attacking an airport 160km from the border?
https://x.com/tendar/status/1840364913161609578?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:10
Someone asked about Hez…ah support
https://x.com/emil_moghaddam/status/1840272353797841105?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:33
Sorry, it was on RT in the link
18:28
Should we be worried if Budanov is on his way out?
He certainly doesn’t look worn out?
Is he taking the hit because Kursk didn’t work?
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1840380027579347145?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:11
That the West would see that Ukraine is tough enough and want to end the war as quickly as possible.
That the West would not just see Ukraine as troublesome and think that Kursk was a problem because it could lead to escalation.
That the West would not see Zelensky as ungrateful.
The military did not want to carry out the Kursk offensive and it was Zelensky and Budanov who pushed it through because they saw political advantages. Have these political advantages been realized?
I have asked whether Zelensky will survive this politically and then we hear that Budanov is getting a new job.
No idea.
20:12
Ukraine thanks Denmark ✊💥
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1840406410066014505?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
20:18
Secret documents show that Navalny was murdered – no one was surprised
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1840410332440764478?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
22:06
Hello thread, breaking but the Russian bastards are starting to run out of LV 😳
https://x.com/ath3nen0ctu4/status/1840421359559561725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
22:06
(Have you already posted Erik14)
22:13
Someone has hacked my account 😡
22:28
They say you choose your friends, I guess. Do you think they were good friends and what kind of dealings did we as a country have with Hezbollah?
12:02
I understand that criticism of Biden and extrapolating on the consequences of his (non)decisions is perceived negatively, so today we will reason a bit about various points that have been raised over the past week completely without the layer of extrapolation or mockery, which should be okay I hope?
Throughout an entire war, we have mocked Putin and posted videos of dying Russians that are deeply moralizing for the Russians, and at times it has been attacked as distasteful, one should not demonize Russians, childish and all that. There was a time when we were not allowed to show joy over Russian losses because it could be perceived as offensive and the phrase “the daily lottery numbers” was not allowed to be used. I started writing that I “was neutrally positive towards Russian losses” and other things to get around that.
At the same time, RU laughs at us in the West for arguing about what we are allowed to say and think while castrating prisoners of war, amputating prisoners of war, raping children as young as five years old, who are then tortured in front of their parents and finally murdered while the parents watch.
Since the start of the war, we have heard, for example, Germany’s Scholz first guarantee Zelensky that there will be no war (or whether it was his Chief of Defense or some general?) together with Macron so that Zelensky would not mobilize.
After that, we heard Scholz and Macron (I think, or one of them) argue that Ukraine should give up some land for peace for a few months.
Then we endured the 5,000 steel helmets from Germany because “offensive weapons would escalate the war.”
And this has continued from the West in rounds – no weapons, no offensive weapons, no tanks, no aircraft, not into Russia, and what else?
We have discussed that it is a political and diplomatic escalation ladder but when NS1-2 was blown up, still no tanks came for quite a long time, which was at the top of UA’s wish list. France quickly sent AMX-30s and called them tanks and declared themselves winners, I believe.
One by one, all the West’s arguments for not meeting Ukraine’s requests at whatever point they asked for help have fallen.
All the time, the common thread seems to be that there is concern that Russia will escalate (I don’t know if this is yet established but a majority in the thread leans that way so that will be the line?).
I have floated that the USA might have a hidden motive but that is not the discussion we are having today to avoid making the thread negative, and besides, it is speculative until it is no longer speculative.
Yesterday it was brought up that the West had nothing to send, for example – that is not true and as an example I pointed out that the USA had 4.5 million DIPCM shells that could have been sent within a program that the GOP could not block.
You have also just seen, as I have, how Australia was not allowed to send 58 M1 Abrams, how Morocco was allowed to buy Abrams and Bradley, how 600 Bradleys are slated for destruction, and so on – all has been discussed.
Surplus material is available to send.
And unit-equipped material and from reserve stocks were sent in 2024, several EU countries contributed to the Czech initiative for example and it was not new production.
All of that could have been sent in 2023 when Ukraine asked for it but it was not done.
Now we will go point by point a bit at a time without extrapolation or embellishment and then it must be okay.
1. Negotiations – Zelensky talks about negotiations, Scholz thinks it is time for negotiations and there have been many statements about negotiations from the Russian side. I think the point of negotiations can be discussed.
We in the thread see negotiations as a major disaster because we see the steps – ceasefire, negotiations, delay, Russia recharges its batteries, round two.
We fear this because RU usually does this – they have broken every agreement they have entered into with Ukraine in the last 200-300 years and they did so with Chechnya and all other countries they eventually crushed. Part of their way of waging war.
Yes – negotiations without a ceasefire would be perfect, how do negotiations often go?
I want to argue that if one party starts a major offensive while negotiations are ongoing, it is not perceived positively by the others, or the opposing party.
If there are negotiations, it is highly reasonable to expect that Ukraine and Russia will not conduct offensives during the time the negotiations are ongoing.
As the situation is today – do you think Ukraine could say after two weeks that this is not going anywhere and then attack again on all fronts and into Russia?
Would that be perceived as an escalation by the West? I have understood that a characteristic of the USA has been to avoid escalation, would going from peace talks to renewed Ukrainian offensive be perceived as escalation by the USA?
2. Saw some comments in the thread that it is thanks to the West that Ukraine has not lost.
First, the question then is how did Europe fare last time it happened in 1939?
-At the start of the war, units took 90% losses to stop the Russians – they died in trenches behind piles of cartridge cases in the thousands.
-In Kiev, veterans ran to the barracks, armed themselves and fought all infiltrated units and VDV that were dropped over Zelensky.
-When RU knocked out 90% of all electricity production and leveled entire cities, they continued.
-When ethnic cleansing swept over the country, they continued.
-When they had (almost) completely run out of infantry weapons and artillery ammunition at the start of 2024, they continued.
-When 700,000 children were kidnapped (according to RU), they did not give up.
For me, it is a (dishonest) whitewashing to write that it is thanks to the West that Ukraine has not thrown in the towel. It is thanks to Ukraine and despite the West that we have still avoided taking the next step into a global conflict. Why can I say that – well, because the West persuaded Zelensky not to mobilize at the start of the war (to avoid escalation…) and the West tried to get Ukraine to give up land for peace at the start of the war.
3. All the best PerraG55, and I mean that, but I have to bring up an argument you wrote yesterday that we should not be depressed because Santa did not give everything he had in the sack that we hoped for.
With all due respect – what has been perceived as negative by some in the thread is that the USA, clearly against the will of the EU (EU, France, Italy, UK, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and some others), has made a decision that the weapons manufactured in the EU and sent to Ukraine may not be used in the way these countries have allowed Ukraine to use them.
They have thus taken away these countries’ national decision-making authority.
This goes against the will of the EU, against the will of the countries in the EU, against international law, against the world order we have been used to post-1945 and against the principle of proportionality.
Then I want to clarify one thing – the only ones besides the USA who support this decision are – Putin, Scholz, Hungary, China and maybe Erdogan?
Everyone else in the West opposes this decision by the USA.
A not insignificant number of GOP and D representatives also do not support that decision.
And above all, Ukraine does not support this decision – Zelensky says that if the US does not approve the peace plan, they do not want to end the war in the best way.
Here is an example of what comes from UA debaters,
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1839918447536279960
4. quite a few quotes from Zelensky and representatives were posted yesterday saying they were satisfied with the meeting in the US, that Biden listened and was positive, that everything is now being discussed positively and so on.
A few of us interpreted it differently and that Zelensky did not get what he wanted but if we are to let ourselves be guided by these statements as truth –
Then we must also accept that Donald Trump stands on Ukraine’s side and wants the best for Ukraine because Zelensky also writes that – that would presumably mean (if one wants to be guided by Zelensky’s statements, which I did not want to) that the whole argument about Trump being a Russian asset and not giving support to Ukraine if he wins the election is false?
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1840121892960632880
If we are to engage in honest debate, we must either interpret all statements from Zelensky as they are written, or guess that he is trying to sugarcoat the pig after the meeting – you cannot have both.
5. We know that the shadow fleet is docking at EU ports to deliver oil directly from Russia into the EU. We know that India’s import of Russian oil has increased sharply and that they refine and sell to the EU. We know that the EU still buys Russian LNG and has either renewed the contract or will renew it at the turn of the year. Russia earns 5.5 billion USD per week on its TOTAL oil sales.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1840027750888886344?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Is it thanks to the EU that Ukraine has not given up or is it thanks to the EU that Russia can continue to buy components for its arms industry, buy missiles from Iran, buy missiles from North Korea, and buy drones from China?
6. The US (Harris or Biden or both?) has very recently stated that the US will help Ukraine to WIN, that was the word used and it was interpreted as a step in a positive direction from previous statements.
Lavrov now says that if the West helps Ukraine to win, then it will be a nuclear war (if you read between the lines).
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1840104469935075629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have discussed in some detail the US stated strategy to avoid escalation and that they have acted reasonably according to many in the thread.
Does that then mean that the US cannot help Ukraine to win in order to avoid nuclear war?
This is the foreign minister at the UN and as close to an official statement as you can get.
I leave the question unanswered but if the US follows this strategy which has been stated many times, then Lavrov will sooner or later ask to get Alaska back in exchange for not starting a nuclear war, I think, that might be worth a try?
The question to consider here is thus – is the US policy reasonable?
7. Putin and the US
Here comes a very serious attempt at analysis to try to unravel the US continued support going forward (this is NOT Biden criticism).
I was looking at some description of how D Trump already in the 80s had visited Moscow and when he came home he started posting full-page ads in newspapers condemning NATO. This is a bit hard to verify but I took the bait.
His first wife was probably from the former Eastern Bloc (in itself not a crime at all but in the 80s and that he is an American businessman should have made the KGB interested)?
That there have been Russian money in his business empire is already investigated – I have the impression that is indisputable?
And that he has a serious soft spot for Putin so we can probably reasonably assume that he is bought by the Russians. The man has been president for 4 years which in itself is quite staggering if so.
Apparently his meeting with Putin in Helsinki was an eye-opener for many but I don’t remember the details.
We continue – the discussions in the thread are that sitting president Joe Biden must tread carefully around support for Ukraine because of Trump so that D can win the election.
-if it were not an election year he could have done more.
-The GOP has blocked all support recently, now some way into 2024, right?
-after the election Harris will send material as soon as she has won.
Now I extrapolate a bit but does this mean that D is de facto controlled by Putin via pressure from Trump on the Ukraine war issue until after the election (if Harris wins)?
If Trump wins, we hardly need to discuss what a “fair peace” is for “little man” Zelensky, I am confident that Ukraine will then get an absolute sh1t peace😀
Follow-up question – will Trump be able to create the same chaos that made Macron and Starmer retract their claws in the EU if he loses the election?
Has anything like that happened before, maybe 2020?
The GOP already managed to “freeze” support for 6 months or whatever it was – can they do it again?
These are two points I think have crystallized as geopolitically important for the whole West to consider
-does Putin currently have control over the US and can influence their decisions?
-will Putin be able to block support after the election if Trump loses?
8. I often return to something I call risk analysis or risk list.
Simply put it is like this – sky-high risk (should be) if Ukraine capitulates and how long can Ukraine hold out.
Since the US now says that Ukraine shall win but did not allow missiles into Russia which according to Ukraine are required for them to be able to win.
Has anyone done a risk analysis whether Ukraine’s statement is reasonable or not before the decision was made?
During the war I have chosen to see what happens on the ground – the difference between words and actions.
Ukraine is retreating almost everywhere right now except up in Kursk, and they will retake terrain in Kharkiv.
And new RU strategic reserves are presumably on their way towards Kursk – I don’t know which and how many.
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1839327147879743535?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Is the US completely confident that Ukraine will not collapse here?
The only time I have seen Zelensky smile like a child was after the invasion of Kursk so I guess that was very positive for Ukraine. The pre-talk from Zelensky about the peace plan was also very positive.
What I see written from Ukrainians after the meeting in the US is not so positive.
Zelensky has also made major upheavals in both the government and the armed forces and fired the Chief of Defense so there are tensions in the country.
And Ukraine is FSB’s focus point number one, they have tried to assassinate Zelensky several times.
Do the Ukrainians think it is worth dying if this war does not end?
A direct consequence of the peace plan not being approved is that the war is prolonged.
And now the thread excuses me but here comes some speculation – there is no one who can assess Ukraine’s risk because Ukraine itself cannot – Zelensky could be murdered tomorrow. But it can be established that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk that Ukraine collapses.
Since the risk is undefinable but the decisions that would end the war as quickly as possible are not being made.
Could it be that the West sees step two as negotiations and thus an end to the war?
And that it would not be the highest risk in the war?
If so, there is a motive not to do everything possible to shorten the war as quickly as possible.
Pure speculation on my part.
9. What do we know today about the war –
-China and Russia have as a minimum demand a ceasefire to start negotiations, as far as I understand, China’s peace proposal is somewhat wrapped up but surely Putin has said that?
-We know that Zelensky has said that negotiations are underway before Christmas.
-It is likely that RU will launch a HUGE missile operation soon with help from Iran and NK, Ukraine fears this and we have received information that RU has stockpiled missiles and received missiles from NK and Iran.
-We know that Ukraine is not currently allowed to strike targets in Russia with Western missiles.
-We know that Ukraine is not allowed to destroy FAB bombers at airfields in Russia with Western missiles.
-We know that Ukraine has not received promised materiel so 14 brigades were not equipped – Zelensky has told us this.
-We know that Ukraine is retreating in Vuhledar, Northern Luhansk (RU is 3km from Oskil) and in Pokrovsk
10. We hope
-we hope that the USA will lift the bans after the election.
-we (I!) hope that Ukraine will push forward and get the EU on board as they already have with Kursk.
-we hope that UA will get all the advanced aircraft and heavy vehicles they need here despite deliveries being delayed repeatedly throughout 2024.
-we hope that there will be a change of power in Russia (there has already been a serious attempt).
To me, it looks like the West holds the key to Ukraine winning this war as quickly as possible.
Partly by removing all bans for Ukraine but also by giving Ukraine the materiel they need – the correlation between a war victory and the West’s actions is 1.
Now comes my very personal opinion but don’t let it color the entire post, please discuss points 1-9.
I believe the West should remove all bans and then send everything (which by the way is already organized in units and in reserve stocks). The EU could over 6 months re-equip a large number of mechanized brigades to top standard if we wanted and then LV, missiles and advanced aircraft could be sent in the quantities needed.
With Kursk, we now have proof that Putin cannot retake ground he has lost in Russia, so a sound strategy would be to press violently along the entire northern front.
Because even today Putin does not have enough units in that area – the units are centered around Kursk and Kharkiv.
The West could also meet the Belarusian citizens halfway and allow all the Belarusian volunteer units to carry out extensive sabotage in Belarus until it collapses. It was very close a few years ago but Lukashenko was saved by Putin throwing in the Rosgvardia who tortured the liberation fighters to death.
This would take the war to Russia in a different way than today and Putin would be forced to abandon area after area in Ukraine that could be retaken.
That’s how I think you win the war.
I don’t think you win the war with negotiations but believe it is a trick from China and Russia to give Putin the breathing space he so desperately needs, so I personally hope it doesn’t come to that.