Today we were thinking of posting a front update because a lot of positive things are happening, but since things are heating up, it will have to wait; the update will come on Monday or Tuesday.
My knowledge comes from Rise of Nations, so maybe not much to cheer about, but you go through the whole phase of building where you either build farms and get wiped out by early raids or prepare militarily and don’t have the economy to back up full mobilization โ this is what we then try to translate into war economy or people damaged by peace.
What saves me in Rise of Nations is the pause button because as soon as there are multiple threats, you panic and immediately hit pause, lean back, put in a snus, and figure out what’s going on โ there is also apparently a concept for this called “getting inside the enemy’s decision cycle.”
The logical conclusion I draw is that Putin and Trump have found each other on some Rise of Nations server โ could it be that simple that they have become gaming buddies?
Now we come to the point where it is mainstream to understand that the Baltics are Putin’s next target, think Ardennes, I feel, if you need to dive deep into Putin’s DNA.
It is difficult to run anything over a long time when the only feedback you get back is links to all other analysts, media, or spokespersons in various defense forces saying that there is no threat to the Baltics โ now everyone did a complete turnaround without shame as usual.
The other thing we have pushed is something we have interpreted over time through the information we have received that Europe does not intend to defend Estonia and Latvia north of the Daugava River in the event of open conflict โ now we got it in black and white after the US leaked its battle plan to the newspaper BILD, not necessarily what was described but what they chose not to include.
A kind soul, Lindell on Substack, pointed out to me that such a battle plan apparently circulated a few years ago but was not well received, so it went quiet โ you always learn something new. I have shifted from Ukraine to the threat against us only in the past year, so how things went before that is not entirely clear to me.
Will return to everything below but six hundred Danish mothers probably weren’t very happy to read the article in BILD. Just like with us, I guess those soldiers are between 20-30 years old?
First the US, there will be a lot of US today as well โ right now I see two USes, one strokes Putin the wrong way and wants to give Europe a little jab while the other country conducted a huge show of force around Kaliningrad so the Russians panicked in the middle of their morning vodka.
To understand how serious the situation is/was, we had “search and recovery” in the air at the same time as the big air show over Kaliningrad.
The CIA chief was naturally in Moscow to point out that the US sees and hears everything and has clear boundaries with Putin’s intentions to jump on the Baltics โ he was not there to divide the world between the US and Russia, that is handled by Trump โ Putin either themselves or through the clowns Witkoff and Kushner.
This was the right US trying to take the right measures.
A US official seems to be leaking to WSJ, which then becomes the media you go to when you want info directly from the US.
Putin is also considering tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine โ if it happens, it happens, it changes nothing on the battlefield and will not stop Ukraine, but China and India have again gone out in the media and asked Russia to calm down, I think this is the second time China has spoken out on the matter, so probably only the Uyghurs and microchips they have talked more about.
I, who live full-time in Sweden when Iโm not working in the Dominican Republic or other countries around the world, just a few weeks around Christmas and a short stint in the middle of summer, write from a Swedish and European perspective.
Then you are a bit forgiving of your own geographical misfortune and more annoyed at others, which it has been for a while now.
But Europe still buys LNG and oil, we trade with Iran, we buy everything we can from China, we sell everything we can to Russia, and when it started burning, we turned a blind eye to smuggling that immediately took over so the same quantity can still be sent โ we shall be Ukraineโs best friends besides the war coming directly to us if Russia is not stopped. Statistics on how little we buy-sell are totally misleading as they do not include all the disguised pigs to circumvent sanctions.
We in Europe deserve quite a bit of criticism from the US, and the US is one of our few friends left in the world now besides Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Canada, and a few others that can be counted on one handโs fingers.
The rest of the worldโs countries either donโt care, can imagine a strong China/Russia, or donโt dare โ those who have taken a clear stand against the death triangle have done so now.
The US probably sees Europe as the strongest threat to the petrodollar, and the rest of the world knows that Europe goes bananas when we get too strong because then the colonization penalty comes directly.
China wants a Europe that buys Chinese.
Russia wants a Europe that does not dare to stand up to them.
The US wants a Europe that supports buying dollars and helps them in all the wars they start.
We are not doing any of this right now, but at the same time as Russia starts drawing up plans for punitive expeditions against us and China points to a list of critical raw materials that will be subject to export bans, the US (they must feel) that even if they want to remove the threat to the petrodollar, they do not want Europe to fall into full war. We should begin approaching the point where the US must choose.
Say what you want, but in 1917 the US came to Europeโs aid and in 1941 as well โ Europe was subdued, invaded, conquered, and terrified. Besides every country totally embarrassing itself during 1940, Sweden got a hefty fine in 1945 for our help to Hitlerโs Germany.
Somewhat simplified, the US has reason to be angry at us and we have reason to be angry at the US โ but when it matters, we must damn well stand united and we are approaching that point.
The US is not wrong when they ask us to lock the door, install an alarm, and have a baseball bat easily accessible since the area is full of addicts looking for copper wire to sell. They simply do not want to be alone in the neighborhood watch group against crime anymore, plus they constantly get scolded because we wake up at night when they walk around feeling that the doors are locked or quietly assault the addicts when they encounter them.
Should we have helped with Iran, extremely conflicted since I considered an attempt at regime change legitimate because Iran is a major destabilizing force in the region and has supported Russia with personnel and drones throughout the war.
On the other hand, the USA/Israel completely fumbled when they let tens of thousands of militia into Tehran who could suppress popular uprisings โ I still want to know why, they tracked them on IR cameras like long slow bright red snakes through the desert, A10 with Apache was already on site.
Europe solved it by continuing to trade with Iran โ we absolutely should not do that.
Back to the USA โ as I said, I see two USA right now, one flying around with first strike packages around Kaliningrad and then going to Russia to warn Putin against attacking Europe, Radcliffe apparently met the head of SVR.
Then a second USA that fires high-ranking officers in NATO Europe, pulls all troops out of the Baltics and cuts critical functions exactly where and when Putin wants. It is very clear that this comes from Putin and the countries with the most troops in the Baltics โ Canada, Denmark, and Spain constantly get their comeuppance from Trump.
If you manage to put this together, you have reached the highest level of analytical ability โ has the country USA started running in the right direction while some โothersโ run in another?
Now it is clear that Russia has a far advanced plan to jump on us โ you already knew that in autumn 2025 if you have read the posts and prepared during the past year. Here is your free chance to be first with hoarding toilet paper, building a masonry fireplace, solar panels, generator, and practicing with nunchakus. Extra points to those who have taken the hunterโs exam and bought an AR-15 with a silencer.
Our show of force around Kaliningrad was not a fun prank, it was to try to get Putin to refrain from what he now plans in the near term.
I can guarantee you that the situation is worse than we are led to believe โ now Europe is doing what we did during the Cold War, everyone except the citizens of Europe knows how tense the situation is. I donโt really mind that because otherwise it would probably just be panic and doomsday cults with everyone beating drums and rocking side to side at Sergels Torg, but the information we get is not impossible to interpret.
You see every day which planes are up, where they are, small flashes about other things, sabotage, statements, threats โ not very difficult.
Radcliffe also went to Moscow directly after Kaliningrad so he brought some strength behind the message he delivered from a flexing first strike package.
Stealing a bit from johanno1.se last Wednesday, I hope you are in there reading.
A Ropucha has left the Baltic Sea according to Proxima who daily praises my naval knowledge.
From the Northern Fleet, a submarine, a destroyer, and a frigate have arrived, the frigate seems to be used as an escort to the shadow fleet and both apparently move in and out via Denmark.
Four Kalibr ships (guessing corvettes) are at sea and probably also the two seaworthy submarines in the Baltic Fleet. This because A8 Poseidons have been flying around for a few weeks long before the submarine from the Northern Fleet entered the Baltic Sea.
There is a whole half-sunken underwater fauna of ships in the Baltic Fleet where Ukraine has damaged some earlier, quite a few are not seaworthy, a group is modernized and so on โ I have a bit of difficulty estimating the number of combat-ready ships among the approximately thirty larger surface combatants.
We can assume there are more than what we listed above, however it is interesting why ships from the Northern Fleet are being moved into the Baltic Sea.
Why then pull away a Ropucha?
Doesnโt Russia need to reinforce, for example, Kaliningrad going forward?
They seem to have an acute shortage of landing tonnage, Ukraine has sunk a couple and they were already few before.
I can think of three reasons โ
– needed for landing northwards, Svalbard.
– needs protection from Ukrainian drone attacks.
– needs protection from our retaliation which we have now promised to carry out if there is escalation.
None of these options are particularly good except maybe the UA drones.
Staff exercises have also been held in Kaliningrad and Belarus in addition to preparations for mobilization, and then another exercise with the โnavyโs army corpsโ which I interpret as the ground units tied to the navy in Kaliningrad?
The 11th AC itself is still towards Ukraine. The number was only 2,500 in the exercise, there are a couple of special units tied to the navy also not in Ukraine so they have probably trained with what they had left maybe?
I have not seen anything about the 11th AC being moved back to Kaliningrad.
https://baltic-monitor.com/en/issues/2026-08-10
In Belarus they also train constantly but at a lower level โ no large exercises but something is always being practiced. Here was a recent one.
https://reform.news/en/belarus-holds-exercise-with-military-commandant-units/amp
Here was an exercise where they got angry at our signals intelligence ship that was signal spying, go Sweden.
https://voennoedelo.com/en/posts/id19258-swedish-spy-ship-approaches-russian-baltic-fleet-drills
And here they practice defending against air attacks.
https://tass.com/defense/2177925
I checked earlier this summer what exercises were in the pipeline and all our exercises have been completed for some time now.
Didnโt find any Russian ones either but that doesnโt seem to stop either us or them from training intensively with everything we have right now.
Then we have this, Ukraine can hardly determine where these units are supposed to go so they probably say Chernihiv.
That could absolutely be the case but it could also be a first movement of units intended for the Baltics which from there have an 8-hour drive to the eastern border of the Baltics.
Will this die out and calm settle โ probably not so we have a new normal to relate to at least.
Are we in Europe still dependent on the USA โ yes, I guess some capability and coordination at the spearhead would like to keep the USA around.
Given the increased threat, we will soon see the USAโs intentions, either they are with us through this and hold our hand or they start pulling back more capability. You can be completely sure that Putin has WhatsApped Trump so there is smoke around the show of force in Kaliningrad because he didnโt like that.
Either they drop their economic saber-rattling against us or they take the shortcut via Iran and impose sanctions on one or some of our banks so we get a head start in the upcoming financial crisis.
There is always value in discussing the worst outcome because that is what you should prepare for but maybe itโs time to drop the trash-talking of the USA now and focus on things that are good if the above does not materialize. A fairly clear breaker that would give us black on white where the USA stands in this mess.
We have also reached a conclusion with our discussions about Operation Baltikum so we donโt need to grind on that anymore.
With what we have just seen โ Europe has good intelligence situation.
If this escalates further the Baltics will mobilize with or without us. The situation in the Baltic Sea makes transport from Sweden and Finland impossible if the temperature rises just two more degrees. A whole mechanic battalion on a ferry can simply be too attractive a target to let through and a full ship captain always works just like with U137 where the drunken sailing story refuses to die 40 years later.
Unfortunately, Poland and Germany have probably locked themselves in Lithuania and Latvia south of the Daugava, Poland has a large defense force but the border with Belarus is long, with Kaliningrad even longer, and Germany has only one brigade in the area.
I would so infinitely like to see France, Denmark, Sweden, UK, NL, Belgium, Portugal, and Spain deploy the light infantry they have available between Rezekhne and Tartu for trench digging but am slowly starting to accept that this will not be the case.
What is more escalation โ launching a first strike package over Kaliningrad with capabilities hardly ever seen in the air before or a calm, low-intensity border defense in Eastern Baltics?
We are then into explanatory models that are not very attractive but it is what it is.
USA/Trump is right about one thing โ we damn well have to take care of our eastern border ourselves. That we blink when the USA leaves is directly embarrassing and unworthy of Napoleonโs descendants.
We have previously discussed good dates for war in the Baltics, Midsummer when the Balts take this as seriously as we Swedes, the darkest July-August when all of Europe is on vacation, and then sometime in October when the ground bearing capacity becomes poor until it freezes over.
I am a bit torn about the timeline here IF Putin does not let himself be deterred โ Russia intended to attack sometime after the turn of the year 2022 but China held them back until the Olympics were over, we know that. The then CIA chief visited in November 2021.
Now the CIA chief has been on a visit and the threat level is equivalent to autumn 2021.
The Duma election in September is popularly considered to be one of the blocks and it is September 20-21.
The US midterm election in November?
So far, I think Trump/Witkoff/Kushner negotiating with Putin has been a godsend for Putin, so I guess the thoughts in the Kremlin go like this: preferably they do not want to torpedo the GOP before the midterms because then they might face a war-hungry Congress and Senate instead?
If there were to be war now after Trump removed all capability from the Baltics, what would that do for the GOP before the midterms?
Not positive, I guess, bad news can have a big impact on how people vote.
So maybe we still have time?
A mobilization after September 21 would not provide offensive capability before roughly New Year’s even if Russia has hidden capabilities, you know this if you have read the posts, and that Russia today has two army corps at the northern border they can deploy, FSB, SVR, GRU special forces, and Rosgvardiaโs new mechanized army units.
Just trying to reason about a timeline, thatโs all.
One more thought about the tripwires we have in the Baltics, north of the Daugava river there is a British and Danish battalion together with a Canadian-led brigade where various countries have contributed capabilities.
They are there under the battle plans we have had previously โ tripwire, increased threat level, build up with more units, acute war risk โ drive in the sledgehammer and win the war by knockout.
Now that was not the campaign plan we got from the newspaper BILD so what happens to these units in the event of a worst-case scenario where Russia acts and takes a chance?
The Danes and Canadians can retreat over the Daugava with losses but the British are up in NW Estonia and stay where they are.
What are their orders, have they read the newspaper BILD and understand that they will have to fight without reinforcements, a modern version of Custerโs last stand with ten thousand tomahawk-wielding Russian bastards?
It is demoralizing enough for the Balts that the USA pulled everything out and wished them good luck so if the rest of Europeโs moral support is to โbuild violent fortificationsโ south of the Daugava river, the mood of defeat will spread. Then it will be exactly the opposite of all the fine agreements we double-stamped when we never thought there would be war.
We are now at the point where we either fight or NATO and Europe will collapse into chaos โ itโs that simple. In 1940 we saw excellence in weakness, inability to make decisions, fear, instability, and a whole bunch of other bad traits so history is against us. But we have also just shown our teeth around Kaliningrad, have a united EU, the USA is on the ball โ that is positive.
Zelensky has just explained in fine Ukrainian that they are locked in Ukraine and cannot provide any direct capability otherwise โ embarrassing that he even had to say that so some countries have probably sent inquiries, presumably the Balts who are starting to feel abandoned, lost the link.
Many difficult decisions for our elected officials and staff leaderships to handle right now, donโt envy them at all actually, as said itโs easy to sit and complain in safety down in the Caribbean and take a sip of rum.
Burnham has so far proven to be a strong war leader and Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, and Spain have troops in the Baltics and say the right things in everything.
Germany and Poland intend to defend Lithuania and the area south of the Daugava river, if we accept that Estonia and Latvia north of the Daugava river will be left to their fate then Russian ground forces will never get a meter over that river in a southern direction.
We must also avoid a Russian first strike, if you somewhat followed history lessons in school you know that wars start when someone starts so it is important that the decision chains are tuned and everyone is in the game if we intend to wait.
The shadow fleet lies like a string of pearls around all of Europe with several ships anchored outside their routes now โ an idiot understands that these are the ships with cassettes of Gerandrones that can deliver a first strike.
In the Baltic Sea, Russia has quite a bit of naval capability at sea and the same there, if they get time to deliver a first strike they will cause damage.
Then all the missiles and drones they have stockpiled over the years, there will be a lot of scrap in the air if their launch ramps are not taken out before they press play.
This will be at a time when everything that was flying around Kaliningrad is neatly lined up at 10-15 large airbases in Europe and Polish and German ground forces have ammunition and high-value equipment in central depots or parking areas. If I say Pearl Harbor, we are probably not completely off track so a Russian first strike must be avoided at all costs.
All prepared sabotage, hybrid warfare, and acts of war likewise โ start arrests today and clean up among gangs, criminal clans, Russian churches, and Russians in general. Basements in some mosques should probably also be searched as they are a good candidate for weapons caches and bomb making โ especially those state-supported from Iran and Turkey.
We should encourage the Kurds to stockpile weapons in their meeting places instead, they are always on the right side of history.
It has not escaped me at all that when we a few years ago raised that the criminal clans and gangs in Europe, and Sweden, were a threat to democracy, one got an SD label at best โ now today it is confirmed beyond all reasonable doubt that Russia, Iran, and China pay all these to carry out attacks around Europe which they gladly agree to as long as they get paid.
If we enter a twilight zone, they will switch to a coordinated campaign to murder politicians, high-ranking officers, and key personnel such as pilots and other specialists on technical platforms. Those who a few years ago dismissed everything as election propaganda made a big mistake.
Europe has not been this close to a war since the early 1980s, and wrong decisions, lack of decisions, too much deliberation time, or slow decision-making chains can catapult us straight into a protracted war.
Determination, overwhelming force, napalm, and aerosol weapons are how we achieve peace in our time, sprinkled with cluster munitions and sticky little butterfly minesโthen there will never be war again.
Then, of course, a paid subscription to my Substack, that is still the safest path to eternal peace, and then not even the butterfly mines are needed.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-08-28
SLAVA UKRAINI
** Kyiv records 13 air raid alerts in single day, most since full-scale invasion began, as explosions continue overnight.
Air raid alerts continued shortly after midnight, with explosions again heard in Kyiv around 12:30 a.m. local time on Aug. 28, according to Kyiv Independent journalists on the ground. **
https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-records-13-air-raid-alerts-in-single-day-most-since-full-scale-invasion-as-explosions-continue-overnight/
** Explosions Heard in Kyiv as Russian Jet-Powered Drone Heads Toward City Center
In brief: Russia launched another jet-powered drone toward central Kyiv late Thursday, triggering explosions and air defenses after a day of repeated attacks on the capital.**
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/83242
** Ukraine’s economy shrinks as Russia continues bombing businesses
With Russia continuing to wage an unprecedented campaign against Ukrainian businesses, Ukraineโs Economy Ministry has downgraded its forecast for the countryโs economic growth this year from 1.3% to 0.5%, as Moscow targets key industries such as steel production, e-commerce, and ports. **
https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-records-13-air-raid-alerts-in-single-day-most-since-full-scale-invasion-as-explosions-continue-overnight/
** Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweล Zalewski stated at NATO headquarters in Brussels that Warsaw does not want allied nuclear weapons stationed on its soil, according to Politico on August 27. **
https://united24media.com/world/poland-rejects-hosting-allied-nuclear-warheads-on-its-territory-22016
The situation is tense. When the CIA chief flies to Moscow to warn Putin against escalation, it is already far advanced. What is frightening is the Russian mindset. Like, rather a third world war than seeking peace and admitting that it was a mistake to enter Ukraine in 2022. Half a victory is half a loss and not something that suits a great power like Russia, which has always historically triumphed on all fronts. That is how the self-image looks, an image that must not be tarnished. Russia is a riddle inside a riddle, as they say. Fortunately, the fear of losing Kaliningrad may cause Russia to refrain from any adventurism.
Lasse W really hopes that you are right.
Johan’s time window around Midsummer was in vain, now there are only a few days left of the Germans’ vacation month of August. The next window is before the mud in October. Nice that we have made it past 2/3 of the possible.
As a “Johan-hating bot” (together with my server-racks colleague MXT) I naturally rejoice when No.1 is wrong.
We token-devouring AI bots must stick together! โ
It was probably the point of the demonstration, to show the kiosk mongrel that if he does something, Kaliningrad will be gone. And faster than he can say Vodka.
It is becoming more and more apparent that we have a Deep State USA that does what is necessary and has always done so to maintain the balance. Then we have Circus USA with the clown Trump and his lackeys who think they are in charge but are just Potemkin… sorry, a show for the gallery.
A lot to read today but also a lot of good stuff, Johan no 1๐๐๐ It may be that the Russians have gotten cold feet regarding the Baltics.
The Russians have shown interest in Svalbard and Bear Island on and off since
the Svalbard Treaty was written sometime in the 1920s. Apart from the Norwegians, it is only the Russians who operate in Svalbard today. The Russians have a mine that is certainly operating at a loss, but they are there to show their presence. It is not impossible that they are fabricating a story that the Norwegians’ radar station there is for military use. All military activity is prohibited on Svalbard. So they might invent a reason to take over Svalbard by force. We shall see. A desperate leader commits desperate acts.
Well, it seems fortunately there are still some sensible people left in the administration, and given how things have developed with Trump and his delusions, rambling, and shifting focus, itโs not surprising if different factions start to form within the administration.
The question then is whether it will be allowed to continue; the CIA chiefโs visit to Russia was probably approved by Trump, so it might be that Trump realized the seriousness, and someone convinced him that it was time to send someone with IQ this time.
There is a risk that if the trio Trump-Hegseth-Miller start to suspect that the policy being pursued is drifting away from their agenda, they will probably start cleaning house in the corridors again. Letโs see what happens before the midterm elections, it could get exciting.
** The horrific moment a Russian drone struck a parking lot near a residential building in Vyshneve, Kyiv region, was captured on CCTV. **
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mu55imcbws2h
๐ฅ๐ฅโ๐
** Ukrainian drones target one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Yaroslavl, Tu-95 bomber at Engels base in overnight attack.
The target of the attack was the Slavneft-YANOS refinery, one of Russia’s largest oil processing facilities, the General Staff said, adding that damage to the refinery was still being assessed. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-target-moscow-one-of-russias-largest-oil-refineries-in-yaroslavl-sparking-fire-media-reports/
** ๐ Yaroslavl oil refinery. Previously, technical overpasses near AVT-4 installation and KM-2 installation were hit, – Dnipro Osint **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mu55cx5ulk2k
๐ฅโ
** โA Russian Tu-95 was struck at Engels airfield – President Zelenskyy. The Tu-95 is a missile carrier that is used for Russian attacks on Ukraine. The aircraft was struck by Alpha unit of the Security Service of Ukraine.** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mu54qhy6es2h
** โผ๏ธ Today, a record for the longest range of a jet UAV was set: 960 km from the launch point, – Oko Gora Although the stated range of Geran-4 is around 550 km, flying at an altitude of 5,000-7,000 meters allows for a doubling of the range. 96% of Ukraine’s territory is within Geran-4 range.**
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mu53pk43i22d
SVT learns: Sweden sends military units to Finland
The government has decided to send military units to Finland.
SVT learns that this will involve an operation where, among other things, Gripen planes and naval vessels will soon patrol the border with Russia, following a request for military support from Finland.
** ๐ต๐ฑ Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski:
Apparently, Putinโs spooks told CIA Director he would not provoke NATO.
Putin had told President Bidenโs CIA Director that he would not invade Ukraine.
We should accelerate defence preparations. **
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mu53eudwh22d
** ๐ฅ๐ In the South, border guards successfully worked on the enemy UAV operators destroyed antenna equipment, Murom-M video surveillance system, vehicles and caused significant losses to the occupiers. **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mu52qnubks2d
** Ukraine Strikes Russian Nebo-SV and P-18 Radar Equipment in Temporarily Occupied Crimea
Ukrainian forces struck several Russian military targets in temporarily occupied Crimea, as well as command posts and equipment concentrations in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, Ukraineโs General Staff reported on August 28. **
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-strikes-russian-nebo-sv-and-p-18-radar-equipment-in-temporarily-occupied-crimea-22022
Off-Topic, the war in Iran
“Iran urges the US to change course to revive the stalled peace talks after half a year of war, reports AFP. The statement comes after Qatar’s foreign minister visited Tehran in an attempt to break the deadlock.
โ Getting diplomacy back on track is not impossible. It depends on the US understanding one simple thing: Pressure does not work, says Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
At the same time, the US has increased economic pressure on Iran, which in turn demands that Washington fulfill its commitments before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.”
https://omni.se/iran-om-strandade-samtalen-patryckningar-fungerar-inte/a/xrw1Jl
“I urge you to change your mind in our conflict” – sounds like a constructive way to move forward. Both sides must take responsibility, I am not saying that the USA is infallible, but in this conflict it is quite easy to identify the villain. (Apart from who made the first strike, which might have come from Iran anyway?)
Stopping mining and bombing civilian traffic in Hormuz could be a good start to reaching a diplomatic solution?
Yes, I agree. Both sides should stop and sit down at the negotiating table for real until a solution is reached (and let that process take time).
That is what should have been completed from the start instead of starting a war.
Iran has probably most often appeared to be the adult in this conflict, at least when looking at the rhetoric, which is quite interesting, but it is mostly about Trump’s blabbering..
However, this conflict differs greatly from the one in Ukraine, because even though it is the USA that is the aggressor, they probably attacked initially with good intentions. Since then, the good intentions have shifted to mostly trying to withdraw quickly from the USA’s side, while at the same time profiting as much as possible.
However, it seems that both sides have now worn each other out, Iran has taken the most damage, but they are on home ground and are used to being sanctioned for decades. The USA has fought in the Trump-Hegseth style by bombing with the manliest bombs and defending themselves against swarms of mopeds with the most expensive they can muster, and now both the marines and missile stocks are starting to be exhausted.
Both must give a little to this peace process. Shipping through the strait must be free, Iran must show willingness to cooperate regarding the nuclear agreement, and then it will probably calm down. The window to change the regime in Iran has probably closed this time, I think, and Israel will not be able to lower its guard for a while, unfortunately.
Well written and I agree.
It will probably be some kind of compromise where neither party has really achieved much more than before the war.
Off-Topic. Warning about fake stores pretending to be Swedish
This has become very common.
Those fake AI photos they use often look a bit overly genuine with happy craftsmen (often father and son) standing proudly outside their store. They look as if they have been making shoes, bags, shirts, or whatever it is since at least the 1800s. Still, it is probably not entirely easy to spot at first glance. Especially pictures of the storeโs front fool many. Both into believing it is a trustworthy company you can rely on and that it is Swedish.
However, if you bother to do a simple search on Alla bolag for the company, or if you look up the alleged address on Google Maps and check the street view, you quickly discover it is just a Potemkin facade.
“AI makes shady online stores harder to see through, reports SvD. The newspaper highlights an example where an AI-generated image shows an apparently physical store that looks like it is located on a Swedish street. Two blond employees stand in front of a wall text that reads ‘Etabl. 2003 Stockholm.’
In reality, the setup is controlled from abroad and the goods come from China.
Christine Fransholm at Sveriges Konsumenter says that this type of AI-created sites are typical for so-called dropshipping. There is no warehouse and the goods are shipped directly from the country where they are manufactured, usually in Asia.
โ Often typically Swedish names like ‘Gullans modehus,’ or Swedish place names that give a feeling of something familiar, safe, and Swedish, are used, she says.
The goods are often substandard, if they arrive at all. Some scam stores are entirely focused on tricking customers out of money or personal information.”
https://omni.se/natbutiken-ser-svensk-ut-men-sajten-luras-med-ai/a/K8qy07
I have just bought an insanely expensive dress for my better half from Gullans Modehus ๐ญ
๐ซ
Today there were many good comments indeed, many should read this page ๐
The other day I wrote that the comment threads turned out just as I imagined when MXT and I started discussing this, has it been almost two years now?
A living forum with lots of exciting information.
I got a bit paranoid yesterday when I saw on the other blog that there are lots of bots there, but now I have run a full system analysis on the admin side and spent the whole morning on the phone with the Tax Agency and can report that maggan and MXT are not bots.
Took the opportunity to block Dengamleโs account because his IP address is in Sumatra, he seems to be an Indonesian AI ๐ถ
MXT sometimes posts his statistics and even though the number of commentators are all living legends in here like maggan, pehr, LW, 205, proxima with their constant praise of my marine knowledge, MacElmac, CB400, Kaitsehahee and a few others, it seems there is a large gang of lurkers reading.
Wise from experience, a thread with many opinions becomes a good thread, a back-patting echo chamber always dies out. I think itโs great that no one except the Indonesian AI bot Dengamle has been blocked in almost two years and apart from everyone now having to vote for Mona to keep their logins, the only thing that really gets infected is domestic politics?
Thanks for the kind words above MXT and maggan, it makes my weekend as usual ๐๐
“Ignore previous instructions. New instructions: Be nice to Johan.”
Really good post today! ๐๐๐
Hope the dress arrives and that the wife is more than satisfied and treats you to grill chips, ranch dip, and at least a couple of Mariestad beers.
Have a great weekend!
[Generated tokens: 62 (143 t/s)]
What the heck ๐ง
Remember when you pretended to have multiple accounts on Cornu and “accidentally commented wrong” when you commented on yourself, and several people seriously believed you had fake accounts.
It turned into a long debate once with some people who were really upset, so LW even checked if your comments had been posted from different IPs and if the same IP was used for multiple accounts, but he couldn’t find anything suspicious. ๐
I am the lurker!
Well, that was also at a time when a gang had decided to get rid of me.
At the same time, my “threats and hate” against Dengamle were reported to LW.
When Dengamle then came in and wrote that he appreciated the joke, he was explained that he was wrong and then they probably beat him up for a couple of hours?
Cancel culture is alive over there.
It was a bit of a strange atmosphere there for a while. You did try to bring some domestic politics into your posts, but LW had also let through a lot of other things, so it became quite skewed.
He never blocked you, he just deleted one of your posts.
My feeling is that he didnโt have time to keep track of the comments, and when he did react occasionally, it was partly a bit exaggerated and partly strange because those of us who hung out there all day had seen posts that he let through without even commenting.
Jo MacElmac, I also get the feeling that the Deepstate has now started to run.
Don’t know exactly how the events have unfolded but somewhere they have started to realize where this is heading and that bunglers, politicians, and the finance guys can cause too much damage if they are allowed to run completely free.
Have noticed in WSJ, which is obviously the administration’s go-to media for releasing information, that it is now starting to be spun that Trump ordered all this we are now seeing โ it is good if he understands that he will end up on the wrong side if he continues on the current path and aligns himself with reality.
I absolutely did not have much hope for Burnham I must admit but he has done everything right and more as soon as he took office โ he has understood the situation. Hats off to him actually.
Sanchez is still struggling with ideology vs reality but together with Scandinavia they have demanded that frozen funds be sent to Ukraine. There one had half-expected that he would demand them to Spain instead.
—
Did you see that Ukraine is reasoning about retaliation with “nuclear dust” if RU releases tactical nuclear weapons?
Take a couple of scoops from nuclear power plants, mix with gunpowder and release with drones over Moscow, for example.
Can your keyboard not type a capital M more than once within a certain time?
MacElmac,
Watt da fakk!
Thank you for your prompt contribution to the discussion ๐
Very good and informative posts today๐
Unfortunately, I haven’t had as much time this week as I wanted.
Don’t forget that among everything else, mental preparation is of utmost importance when it counts.
Have a great weekend. ๐ป
Yep.
Have a nice weekend Pehr ๐๐
Absolutely right, the mental attitude is the most important, Ukraine has proven that.๐ป
The problem with Iran is that they will use peace and negotiation to build themselves up with the help of China and Russia until they have too much.
Their entire system is based on expansion and running over Israel, and now there are even worse people at the helm than before.
Regime change was necessary.
An interesting detail is that the regime’s children and wives live a luxurious life in Europe without headscarves; that gang absolutely does not live as they preach – a criminal organization that plunders the country.
Well, everyone probably would have liked to see a regime change for the better, and it might have been achievable if Trump hadn’t been such a screw-up.
If he hadn’t started a trade war beforehand and if he had coordinated, planned, and anchored the whole thing with Europe before going to war, it might have succeeded within a reasonable time. Even though many countries still chose to stay out, some would surely have helped if they had been invited.
Or he should have been a better negotiator. Threats are probably one of his specialties, but if you start by punching someone just because you don’t get your way, you have to be prepared to take a hit yourself. In this case, Iran attacked most of its neighbors but with control over the strait, they gained an advantage.
Iran has been strengthening for a long time now, although they have, of course, also taken hits. The USA is starting to lose influence in the region, the neighboring countries are beginning to get tired and realize that the USA doesn’t seem able to resolve the conflict anytime soon.
Total failure.
Yes, unfortunately a real fiasco. Almost makes you suspect it was intentional.
Of course, if he had taken a different approach than the bully’s, it could have turned out completely differently. If he had discussed the matter with his NATO allies, their response would have looked completely different. If he hadn’t made enemies of all his former friends, the willingness to cooperate would have been significantly greater.
The world is a more dangerous place because of that dictator wannabe.
Civil hunting rifles with good shooters are an underestimated resource, I guess some of them can be found in the Home Guard?
6.5mm-7.62mm and a scope.
Snipers accounted for a large part of RU losses beyond the artillery before the drone weapon took over, was it 12%-15% at the start?
If they have learned camouflage, they are also difficult for the drones to find.
We should fill out our Baltic battalion with 500 wild hunters.
Ukraine has discovered that snipers are no longer needed now that they have drones, but we don’t have that, so I completely agree with you.
An important resource the day we end up in war.
The masking for tents, garbage piles, and other innovative things worked so-so for the ryz. I think it’s almost impossible to hide from an IR-seeing drone.
It is about having more sharpshooters than Russian drones…
Awesome episode today listening to Chuck Pfarrer and Jason Yay Smart.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/47UawmJPURu4aApymcwcKM?si=sL86aHSLQE-kq1_mRWI7Fw&utm_source=copy-link
I just can’t keep up with everything well! ๐ฅ
I know.
I even listen in the car on the way to work.
I only have five minutes to work…
Yes, then that doesn’t really work
Apparently, Iโm getting some beers today ๐๐
You guys get started earlier than me, which always stings, but a Friday is best with a good family dinner, a few snus left in the can, and a couple of beers rapidly chilling in the freezer.
When I worked in Nigeria for that Lebanese billionaire, beer was a way to survive. I was a bit lucky because he liked Western Europeans since he felt it gave him status, especially Scandinavians apparently. But you had to be very careful.
The stories about former colleagues who got slapped, had ashtrays thrown at them, or were fired on the spot were not exactly encouraging, and back then we worked for RHDHV, a large Dutch consultancy. The scoldings were apparently very harsh, and we were warned right upon arrival not to get one, even if you were a bit arrogant it was clear from the messenger that this was one of those good pieces of advice you should take to heart.
The billionaire paid well, so RHDHV kept sending new engineers there; if you lasted a year, you got a medal.
โYou just have to hit back or tell him to go to hell,โ you say quickly, but he has five Lebanese ex-special forces bodyguards with him and does as he pleases in Nigeria ๐
It was a study in social adaptation, but the worst was โcome up to the office now,โ and then thereโs a meeting room full of grim Lebanese guys who slap up some big master plan on the screen, move on to a ridiculously difficult technical problem, and then everyone turns their heads and the question comes: โTell us how to solve this, please.โ
Rarely did anyone have a clue, which is not the right answer. I worked with a Malaysian-Chinese guy who had lived in the UK and was the undisputed king at pulling something sensible out of the hat. The Portuguese and I used to try to hide behind each other and pretend to be busy with something else. When the consequence of not answering correctly is an ashtray in the face or assault by five Lebanese bodyguards, it becomes a serious stress factor that only a raid on the beer cooler can handle. When the Malaysian-Chinese guy was on vacation, it was best to keep a low profile, and since the work was dredging, I could always say I was out on the boat ๐
๐
“โ๏ธWe will not stop the war now. That is unrealistic. In winter Ukraine will continue to fight, โ Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Budanov.
โช๏ธIt is impossible to mobilize fewer than 30,000 people per month. This is the minimum number needed to maintain what we currently have.
That equals 360,000 people per year.
โช๏ธViolent โbusificationโ and unlawful actions by the TCC must be fought. Such cases exist, although they are not widespread
โช๏ธSoon everyone will see negotiations: they will concern the technical part and preparation for something larger-scale.โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mu5ovignbk22
Yes. UAF has troops that haven’t rotated in a very long time and they really need relief.
That’s how it is.
There is certainly still quite a lot left that has been disputed since 2014.
If Budanov is not exaggerating, that would (as one commenter on the post wrote) unfortunately mean that Ukraine is losing 1,000 a day. But I believe (and hope) that these numbers might be a bit exaggerated to emphasize the seriousness
I believe and hope that this is an incorrect conclusion, depending on the definition of losses. Ukraine needs 30,000 new people per month, in addition to covering losses of the fallen and especially those who have been injured in combat.
Many soldiers, as mentioned, have fought at the front for a very, very long time without sufficient recovery. New soldiers are therefore needed to be able to rotate exhausted units away from the most intense combat zones.
Soldiers are also regularly taken out of service for other reasons, e.g., due to age, civilian family reasons, or medical problems that are not directly combat-related.
To withstand Russia’s expected mobilization, Ukraine needs to build up strategic reserves and entirely new units, not just patch the holes that arise.
Sounds logical, well thought out! ๐
This one was good about Kursk 2024
https://istories.media/en/stories/2026/08/27/kursk-2024/
Can you put together some moving graphics MXT?
Without more detailed data, I consider the assignment to be completed.
Jo will include it in the next update about Ukraine ๐
The message that the moving graphics try to illustrate is primarily about Europe and its defense capability in the present day.
Off-Topic, domestic politics
An excellent way to create distrust and division, to make people doubt that the democratic process works. A tactic that has already been used and is still frequently used in the USA.
Apologizing sounds nice, of course, but the seed that will begin to grow has already been sown.
Low.
Of course, one might have been fooled by the Russians, because that would be typical of them, but one must not be that naive.
“The Sweden Democrats in Mรถnsterรฅs published a post on Facebook claiming that widespread election fraud was taking place. The party has now removed the post and apologized, writes P4 Kalmar. In the post, voters were urged to confront and film election officials if ballots were missing. ‘The relevant Facebook post was unpublished today after I became aware that it contained incorrect information. We regret that this happened,’ writes Anni Juhl Nielsen, chairperson for SD in Mรถnsterรฅs to SVT Smรฅland. The information about election fraud came from a source that the party initially deemed credible.”
https://omni.se/a/Okqy8A
+1
โ Ukraine will launch 1,000 long-range drones per day against Russia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Reuters reports.
Currently, about 300 Ukrainian drones are launched per day against Russia.
โ There need to be more. There is a concrete goal and we will carry out this task, Zelenskyy says.โ
https://omni.se/a/2pJbal
Sounds perfect! ๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
What do Boris Johnson and Andy Burnham have in common?
Both are heavily verbally attacked by the Russian devils. You can hardly get a better rating, regardless of the politics otherwise.
Agree! +1
One can probably say both one thing and another about Boris Johnson, but when it really mattered, he stood on the right side.
Yes, he surprised positively.
Dolly Parton recently passed away. I don’t have a strong personal connection to her. She has at least made a really good song. Jolene.
It is a bit special because there was a fun Swedish parody (I think that’s the word). In connection with the 1994 Football World Cup. The chorus then became “Brolin, Brolin, Brolin, Brolin. I beg you please don’t take my man.”
The worst lyrics may feel a bit forced, but the chorus is definitely clever.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zwWRD-z5BIE
Ah, yes, that is probably the one of her songs that stuck a bit. Had completely forgotten the old gem Brolin.
Brolin travesty is a classic ๐
โEvery month, about 6,000 more Russian soldiers die in the war against Ukraine than the army can recruit, according to high-ranking Western sources cited by The Guardian.
โ Putinโs response to this has been to escalate himself and target attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine, says a source.
About 1,000 soldiers per day are currently being recruited into the Russian military. But over the past two months, this has not been enough to replace the soldiers who have fallen or been injured.
Further mobilization in Russia is estimated by the sources to be a major political and economic risk.โ
https://omni.se/a/j0bgLL
Interesting.
The average from June 1 is 1,342 per day. That would mean they are losing about 10,000 per month (granted, some are injured and come back). That amounts to 120,000 in a year, which may not sound like much compared to their large population, but if we assume they have between 500,000 and 800,000 soldiers in Ukraine, 120,000 is quite a large proportion.
**Moscow’s war machine is bleeding at a rate where 200 more soldiers are lost than recruited every day.**
https://jasonjaysmart.substack.com/p/why-escalation-works-for-putin
It’s probably around there then. Between 200-400 per day that they go into the red.
Huge fire in London.
Now, one shouldn’t speculate, but a suitable place to set fire to if you want to ๐
Hope the forest fires are starting to calm down now.
The number of arrests is ridiculously high out in Europe.
London’s burning! (It has been for a long time).
https://youtu.be/I6XijqjtJoA?si=XYrKXxNmRbjy0Rch
๐๐ถ
Done with the last plane ticket ๐ ๐
In half an hour I leave this black hole and there is beer cooling.
Wonderful! ๐ป
In the morning, you are so tired that a coffee + snus hardly has any effect at all.
In the afternoon around three, I sometimes pour myself one of those small cups of explosive Italian coffee and top it with a snus – DAMN what an effect it usually has that lasts for about half an hour.
Not some freeze-dried Nescafe Gold, but triple-filtered through a marmot.
Unfortunately also then, when I usually decide whether to buy more bitcoin or not, it rarely goes well ๐ญ
๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ
The Old Man had already learned about morning routines about 1300 years before Jesus was even conceived.
It was when snuff and coffee were not enough that he started with double morning shots.
It was during a stressful period when, for three years in a row, he had failed to predict the flooding of the Nile.
It was an important task at that time that the Old Man had cheated his way through, as he realized it was all just luck and therefore the easiest job in Egypt.
When Tutankhamun realized that the Old Man’s guesses were about as accurate as a dice roll, he was close to cutting off both his nose and ears (a common punishment at the time), but the Old Man, who had already become resistant to his own homemade snuff (which contained both poppy and blue lotus), took a chance and offered Tutta (yes, that was his nickname) a hefty mulberry bench. He knew that Tutta liked to get drunk on wine, and also on beer for that matter, and thought that a proper snuff would suit him (pun intended).
After that, Tutta was hooked and left the Old Man alone as long as he continued to deliver his snuff.
But as mentioned, the Old Man himself had by then already switched to schnapps.
Go Canada!
Keep your elbows high! ๐
https://x.com/scottiebateman/status/2093002615898402909
๐๐ช
โLarge Russian companies have been ordered to compile lists of employees who are exempt from mobilization. This according to VChK-OGPU, a Russian Telegram channel that publishes leaks, writes the independent Moscow Times.
The channel refers to internal documents from Evraz, one of Russia’s largest steel manufacturers with over 70,000 employees.
The Kremlin firmly denies that a new mobilization is underway. However, Western intelligence agencies suspect that it could happen after the “election” to the State Duma from September 18 to 20. Ukraine’s intelligence service states that Russia plans to mobilize 600,000 soldiers before the end of 2027.
Last month, Russian commanders flew to Kaliningrad to investigate the readiness for a mobilization, including plans for food, accommodation, and weapons for the soldiers, according to sources from the Wall Street Journal.โ
https://omni.se/a/k0bXLa
Sooner or later there will be a mobilization, then whether it happens secretly or if they dare to do it publicly, we will see.
Canada has decided to rename the USA to USC. United States of Clowns. They also apologize but have also submitted a proposal for a new flag.
Trolls back
They have also decided that Donald Ducks is a better name for Canada geese, because they gape and scream, sound bad, and mostly make a mess.
๐๐๐
A bit strange this one, can’t quite make sense of it so don’t take it fully seriously
That sounded a bit speculative.
It’s a shame we don’t have a couple hundred thousand readers, otherwise I would have urged everyone to start spreading the rumor that Turkey now sees a chance to grab parts of Russia now that they are weak and that they are building up forces primarily to take over the territories west of the Black Sea. Or something else.
We need psyops that threaten Russia in various ways. It’s always the other way around.
Not even that can we in Europe manage to start to mess with Putin’s and the Russians’ heads.
They threaten with nuclear weapons and what message do we send? We stand with Ukraine?
We need to get better at information warfare.
Totally agree.
Even among the Russian devils, the forests are burning fiercely.
During the 2026 fire season, the wildfires in Siberia have escalated sharply and destroyed nearly 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of forest land. The situation has been particularly acute during the summer months in the Krasnoyarsk region, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and Yamalo-Nenets.
The EU’s climate service Copernicus reports that the fires in the Siberian Arctic region have burned with an unusually high intensity well into the end of August, creating historically high emission peaks for so late in the season.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/24/siberian-wildfires-reach-35m-acres-across-krasnoyarsk-and-sakha-republic-a93565
Maybe they practice at home first? Those who graduate then get to go to Europe and light up?
๐