Hybrid War, 4 August 2026

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Today we dive into hybrid warfare (again) but first a calibration that everyone now agrees that Ceuta was a state-coordinated hybrid attack.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/02/spanish-government-received-intelligence-warnings-of-ceuta-migrant-surge-days-before-crisi

There are videos of buses full of people driving up to the border and unconfirmed reports that personnel from the Moroccan security services were among the crowd, in addition to Morocco completely opening its own border control and then assaulting those who tried to return to Morocco.

After that, opinions diverge like Moses and the Red Sea, roughly, which is why there is value in continuing to discuss this.

The last time Ceuta was visited was apparently in 2021 when Spain and Morocco were in discussions that went half well and 8,000 people crossed the border into Ceuta.

This time it was possibly because Spain’s Sanchez visited Algeria, which made the Moroccans a bit upset.

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20260720-spain-pm-sanchez-visits-algeria-first-time-four-years-ties-thaw

Others suggest it was because the Spanish Supreme Court decided that if people arrive by sea, they cannot automatically be sent back.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/01/europe/spain-morocco-migrants-intl

Spain decided in 2026 to issue an amnesty for undocumented migrants, which eventually reached around one million.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260630-spain-more-than-one-million-undocumented-migrants-apply-for-amnesty-scheme

It is not far-fetched to guess that people were told that if they enter by sea, which in this case means going around a breakwater, and come up on the beach in Ceuta, they are automatically entitled to the amnesty (which is already over). A story is concocted on social media that gives people false hope and manages to get 60,000 to cross the border into Ceuta.

Now I circle back to my earlier posts about the summer of 2026, which were written last winter and spring, where we guessed that this year would be the mother of all hybrid wars.

We went through that the entire perimeter defense against the Mediterranean in 2026 is basically intact, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Italy, France, and Portugal have all taken the position that people who enter illegally are sent back promptly.

Trafficking will always exist, but large state-supported campaigns are no longer possible in these countries.

The only country that has not adopted this new line is Spain, apart from actually the UK and Ireland, which are not on the perimeter defense in the same way as these.

Up north, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have completely closed their borders now and attempts at hybrid warfare through trafficking from Belarus and Russia have completely died out. Probably the players have simply gotten tired of sitting and freezing at the border without further prospects of moving on.

It is therefore not insignificant at all that it is precisely Spain that has been targeted.

As a government, you have a great deal of responsibility and one of them is to protect your citizens and do what is best for the people in the country besides managing your relations with your friends.

Has Spain colonized Ceuta and Melilla and should they be returned – a question to ponder perhaps.

Today’s Morocco was part of the empire that conquered the Iberian Peninsula for centuries before they were expelled, and thereafter the Spaniards took Ceuta from the Portuguese. In the 1500s, they were declared Spanish territories with today’s autonomous status.

The Spaniards should keep completely quiet about Gibraltar and not complain so loudly about other countries’ land grabs because they themselves have a piece of land they have kept outside their own territory simply because they can.

Or should they do what they demand of others and return Ceuta and Melilla to Morocco?

Ceuta has around 90,000 inhabitants, of whom a not insignificant part are of Moroccan origin. The incident itself involved over 60,000 who entered in a short time from Morocco and then most left.

If this had been an attempted invasion, it probably would have succeeded, so the Spanish government has absolutely not taken its task seriously here. Before the incident, there were 170 police officers and 2,000-3,000 soldiers in the enclave. They were completely unable to solve their task and had to call for reinforcements from Spain because they were overrun and the citizens had to lock themselves in for a few days.

Then the stories differ – I now follow some residents in Ceuta and they are of the very strong opinion that about 15,000 still remain in the area despite military presence.

There have been some murders (not those who died trying to get in) and extensive looting with accompanying arson. If where I live I am forced to lock myself in because there are riots, I expect the state to solve it – is that wrong thinking?

Some videos now circulating suggest that those who stayed are a bit more prone to rioting than those who chose to leave – but now the influence operations are in full swing and all kinds of videos are being spread.

The Spanish government has chosen to downplay the event which has instead led to domestic political disputes.

The rest of Europe, which was not supportive of the earlier amnesty, immediately went hard and demanded border control; if Spain could not manage it, they would impose it on Spain.

So what is the problem besides that the residents of Ceuta had to stay home without Friday night relaxation?

Well, that the Spanish government, by not understanding that these are difficult times, makes it easy for others to wage hybrid war against them, and in the long run risks a government crisis.

Spain is already today a weak government supported by the far right and far left – both flanks are influenced by Russia.

Spain is also the country after Canada with the largest military presence in the Baltics.

The Spanish government has strongly criticized the USA in the Iran war and is clear with Israel about what they think of Israel’s colonization of Palestinian territories.

Right or wrong, one can at least conclude that Spain does not lack enemies, and if you have enemies you should at least ensure that you can manage your own self-defense, I think.

Poland, Finland, and the Baltics have had exactly the same problems and are light years more exposed to hybrid warfare than Spain is – they solved their incidents quite harshly and today have full control.

We will return to the forest fires but they are naturally also part of hybrid warfare.

2015 was what is today called the migration crisis, the USA had long been at war in the Middle East and large refugee flows had then gone towards Turkey, Lebanon, and other countries further west because it was virtually impossible to stay.

A bit like Angola had it, I learned when I went there for work in 2006, first the army came and looted, raped, and murdered, the next week the rebels came and looted, raped, and murdered – for the civilian population the only constant was rape, murder, and looting.

Then Russia came and was even worse, so the refugee flows became even larger.

Russia’s early presence in Africa was around that time and China had been there for a long time. Russia’s Wagner is today in a large number of countries in Africa and they desecrate, loot, and torture their way through wherever they always side with the worst party.

Europe had a couple of years where we all understood our previous debt on the continent, but it has also led to us having an acute aversion to reestablishing ourselves there. The USA was simply kicked out of a couple of countries along with France not so long ago.

The only country that is really there now trying to do good is Ukraine, which sends capabilities to every country where Russia is present to decimate wherever they can.

You don’t read much about Africa anymore, but Russia is absolutely the worst that continent has had to deal with in a long time. Previously fragile democracies that were slowly starting to function got the full brunt of Russian subversive activities and collapsed into civil wars or dictatorships.

Mozambique, which was the country that always worked, has today been on the brink of civil war – to me, it is incomprehensible. I worked with a Portuguese man born in Mozambique when I was in Nigeria 2023 – 2024 and we discussed this all the time since his family and relatives lived in the area that was worst affected. The family left for Portugal but the parents wanted to stay. Fun anecdote, but when he was little they were poor farmers, so he ran two miles to school in shorts without a T-shirt and cooked his food over an open fire at home.

In 2015, Turkey carried out a large transport of people from Syria and Afghanistan into Europe, and many also crossed the Mediterranean from the African continent – it was probably a couple of million in total after a few years, where countries like Italy, Greece, and others chose to bus them further up into Europe as their capacity to handle the situation was completely overwhelmed by the numbers.

In 2016, the UK voted for its Brexit, where Nigel Farage, who we now know took Russian money, promised that all migration problems would be solved on the day if the vote was yes. Lucky for him that there was a migration crisis at the same time, one must conclude in hindsight.

In the rest of Europe, anti-migration parties like the National Front (or whatever they are called today) in France and AfD in Germany have now become so strong that they are on the verge of winning elections – and they have strong ties to Russia.

Here, you can either do like Spain and not see that state actors are behind and seize opportunities in flight that they themselves have created over time, or you accept that Europe as a continent is exposed to a low-intensity hybrid war by probably everyone else.

Basically, no one wants a strong Europe because everyone knows what happens then. We made China into addicts, the British had the empire where the sun never set which they could plunder around the clock, and if we weren’t busy colonizing others, we fought among ourselves – history is just war, war, war.

It is in everyone else’s DNA to keep an eye on us, and since the Cold War ended when we were scared, divided, and weak, we have now formed ourselves into the fairly large block EU and are to “arm ourselves to the teeth.”

Europe is thinking completely right – we shall grow through trade and make friends, not through the game of who has the most fire tubes wins.

The problem is just that no one else cares, and we have now reached the level of hybrid war in Europe, which we so far handle really poorly.

The forest fires in Europe are the next part of this year’s folk festival, took a really long time but now the media is slowly beginning to admit that they are arson. There are always domestic political points to be scored on everything, and since it did not fit anyone’s power ambitions, it was overlooked.

France has arrested 375 people for setting forest fires now.

https://1news.az/en/news/20260803151513560-In-France-the-number-of-people-detained-over-wildfires-has-risen-to-375

Portugal 155

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/portugal-arrests-155-people-over-suspected-forest-fire-offenses/4011381

Greece 33

Greek Authorities Arrest 33 Suspects Over Wildfires

Strangely enough, Spain remains silent, but the idea that they would have spontaneous grass fires when everyone else has arsonists running around like a kindergarten class that discovered the kitchen door was unlocked – that is incredible.

I amused myself with this

https://currentwildfires.com/en

The pro-Russian countries Bulgaria, Serbia, and Slovakia have very few forest fires this year.

In Belarus, there is almost nothing.

Poland and the Baltics, which have already openly declared war on hybrid warfare, also do not have many forest fires.

Countries that support Ukraine are like a big Walpurgis Night bonfire.

The Baltics have since July strengthened surveillance at high-value targets in their countries.

Latvia Stepped Up Security at Hydropower Plant and Gas Storage Facilities Due to Russian Threat

Is it over now?

Probably not, another low-odds bet is all the “terror attacks” and “hate crimes,” and now Iran is also fighting for its survival, so the gloves are off and the claws are out.

Admittedly, we seem to entertain ourselves with such things ourselves when leaders in Aftonbladet and Sydöstran followed BLT’s article and proclaimed “Nazi arson attack and threat to democracy” the same night someone tried to set fire to a polling station in Sölvesborg. It was probably also the same newspapers that urged calm regarding Ceuta.

The perpetrator had roots in Kosovo, a difficult life, and was probably mentally ill, so it quickly died out.

Yes, one can play with the idea that if a person runs into Stockholm Central Station in priest clothes shouting loudly “praise God in heaven HALLELUJAH,” most people would probably just curiously watch when he slams his backpack on the floor. If a person instead shouts “Allahu Akbar” when throwing the backpack on the floor, the place quickly empties.

So there is some concern already to capitalize on after the last ten years’ terrorist attacks, but they were also part of the hybrid warfare that has been simmering. State-prioritized activity in Russia, during the Cold War 85% of the KGB budget went to spreading unrest in the West.

Iran has also been active for a long time, and during the war against ISIS, they targeted Europe.

Russia was quick to spread unrest around Ceuta on social media, and they are quick to spread unrest with terror attacks they themselves have carried out through proxies. The attacks are designed to create unrest and anger; severed heads, mass shootings, machete attacks where the perpetrators are maladjusted outsiders or criminals doing it for payment.

The neo-Nazi attacks as well – they pay people to paint graffiti on Jewish synagogues or mosques.

Bacon in the Quran or caricatures of Muhammad are also part of their activities – polarizing and creating conflict zones that barely existed before.

Finally, nerves are on edge and group stands against group – just as they want it.

The next extremely low-hanging fruit is black swans when times get uneasy, an attack on a country that sends shockwaves straight into the markets and causes a financial crisis.

Then a country turns completely inward and could hardly care less whether the Baltics are invaded or not.

These things happen all the time, and we ourselves today have sanctions against Russia, Iran, North Korea, and most recently China, so why wouldn’t they be allowed to do the same to us in the way they can?

The laws of war apply and Europe is already at war with Russia, we may think we are not, but for Russia we are already a belligerent party since we finance the entire war for Ukraine. Iran is fighting for its survival.

As we are heading towards a possible financial crisis this autumn or later, I see Trump’s constant trade attacks on us and a possible conflict zone in the Baltics from Russia as attempts at black swans.

And China’s export ban on things we really need for our own production.

What’s done is done and we cannot rewind the tape, but today we can accept that Europe is in a low-intensity hybrid war and act accordingly.

To believe that it does not affect us when Finland is already preparing for war today or the Baltics are going into staff mode for urgent sabotage threats is borderline ridiculous.

Russia has all of Europe as its playing field and usually strikes where it is easiest.

Right now they are test-running a thunder-run on Europe’s perimeter defense again and exploiting the drought to create forest fires, during the autumn they may fan unrest in shaky financial markets and continue to polarize and set groups against each other in countries – why would they stop if we don’t stop supporting Ukraine?

Since we must support Ukraine, we might as well accept the obvious fact and start addressing the problem that will not die on its own.

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114 thoughts on “Hybrid War, 4 August 2026”

  1. MXT

    Apologies for the lost comments in today’s post (and yesterday’s)!

    As I wrote earlier, I uninstalled the survey tool because it contained a security risk. It has now been fixed, but during the uninstallation, the surveys that existed previously were deleted.

    Therefore, I was going to restore just the missing tables with survey data, and was going to import the backup of the older database to then transfer those tables. Unfortunately, I was a bit unfocused and made a classic beginner’s mistake by forgetting to adjust the target database in the SQL file to be imported, which resulted in not creating a copy but instead replacing the current database.

    Since I also did not take a database dump shortly before (what could possibly go wrong?) or have transaction logs enabled (I only have that on critical sites, such as webshops), I had to restore from last night’s backup.

    I stand in the corner of shame and will wear the dunce cap for a while (before I post all my comments again).

    Extra big apology to Pehr who had written several comments.

    1. fedtmule

      Mxt….are you sure about that… Johan!! I think Mxt is engaging in hybrid warfare against you and our blog.
      Has he been sniffing beluga caviar and dates lately and been seen driving around in a white Lada?

      1. MXT

        The category was all comments written today between ~03:34 and ~09:40.
        Most were probably mine, so maybe it was some form of unconscious self-censorship? 🤔

  2. MXT

    Ukraine attacks Wildberries and oil refinerys during the night  💥🔥✊👍

    ** Ukraine reportedly strikes Wildberries warehouse near Moscow, St. Petersburg, Russian oil refinery set ablaze.
    Ukraine’s military launched a wide-ranging drone attack on Russia overnight on Aug. 4, reportedly striking logistics and oil infrastructure in various regions of the country, Russian Telegram media channels reported.
    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery/

    Ukraine Strikes Wildberries Hubs Near Moscow, St. Petersburg in Fresh Drone Wave
    In brief: Ukraine struck two major Wildberries logistics hubs near Moscow and St. Petersburg in overnight drone attacks, extending a campaign targeting Russia’s supply network. The latest strikes reportedly damaged one of the retailer’s largest distribution centers as Ukraine continues to pressure Russia’s logistics infrastructure deep behind the front lines.
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81667

  8. MXT

    Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-08-04

    • 1240 KWIA
    • 5 Tanks
    • 4 AFVs
    • 55 Artillery systems
    • 4 MLRS
    • 5 Air defense systems
    • 1 792 UAVs
    • 12 UGVs
    • 379 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  12. MXT

    Johan has problems with having more than one post live at the same time, so I guess I’ll have to wait until tomorrow to do a review of the Russian losses.

    1. johan No.1

      Only when you post after my post the same day and want to make it the main post to comment under 😀

      I think we have a sensible order where we do one text per day 👍

      If you want to go back to the above, I can start with something short and politically interesting that I post as the third post as soon as I wake up, just so we have three to choose from?

      2. johan No.1

        My big problem is that my admin status is a Potemkin village that can disappear at any moment 😭

        This is how it started in the 30s 🧐

      2. Umlaut

        Yes, make a post. Suggestion: the loss figures as the first comment on a J#1 post, or if the essayist feels lazy that day, their own post.

  16. Lasse W

    Speaking of Ceuta, I think it is full of unemployed, semi-criminal troublemakers in the countries in the Middle East, like in Morocco. Maybe Morocco wanted to get rid of some? It doesn’t look good when shops are looted in Ceuta. What kind of people have swum ashore in Ceuta?

    3. CB500four

      Well, they are not exactly stable countries, and just as they begin to approach some kind of economic stability and democracy, the Islamists and/or some Russian-backed rebel group come and destroy it.

  20. johan No.1

    Russia is quite resilient, one must say.

    We have already had that discussion, but damn, what a blow they are getting now.

    The same with Iran, just as soon as someone new steps on the gas.

    Europe gave up within months in 1940

      1. Pehr

        One absolutely does not want a united Europe. Something people were genuinely worried about already during the final stages of the Cold War when I lived in California.

    3. CB500four

      One probably did not believe 10 years ago that Russia and the USA would cooperate to split Europe.

      Russia wants neighboring countries as its slave states, installing dictators and enslaving the population, and the USA wants the European countries to be weak and alone so they can turn them into economic slave states.

       

  24. MXT

     It cannot be ruled out that Sweden will become a target if Russia attacks a European country to test NATO’s cohesion. This is stated by Supreme Commander Michael Claesson in an interview with SvD.

    – Without wanting to scare anyone in any way, we need to create an awareness that there are long-term strategic goals from the Russian side that are antagonistic, he says.

    The risk of a traditional military attack with, for example, tanks is still considered low, partly because that type of resources are engaged in fighting in Ukraine. According to the Supreme Commander, it is rather about smaller military operations aimed at identifying vulnerabilities and “making us lose confidence in our own ability.”

    1. johan No.1

      Our ÖB is both right and wrong.

      Russia has 5,500 tanks deployed and they are not directly fighting in Ukraine at all with them.

      The Baltics themselves have close to zero, right?

      Then some from other countries that are there but in low hundreds at most, and the British are supposed to withdraw theirs.

      Europe has around 5,000 as well but not at the border protection except Poland.

      Now the drone weapon is probably the interesting one but I think he is wrong about the tanks.

      If Putin gets a bar chart where one capability is tanks, it does not look very discouraging.

      If another bar is the drone weapon, it looks even worse.

  25. johan No.1

    The British have quite big problems with “small boat crossings”.

    But it is France where the police take smoke breaks on their side of the channel instead.

    Now, the UK and France have always had full beef, so maybe one shouldn’t read too much into it 😀

  26. Pehr

    Here was another of the censored posts from this morning.
    VaaS that has been discussed here before.
    Hardly just Iran involved in such activities, also the Russian bastards, which Ukraine has noticed as well.
    ”Focus: Sweden’s new export – Teenage contract killers
    August 4, 2026 08:02
    Ofer Maimon
    Atilla Azimov poses with the pistol, three months before the murder. Photo: Police
    Atilla Azimov poses with the pistol, three months before the murder. Photo: Police
    Teenage Swedes are recruited via social media to carry out contract killings across Europe. The Foxtrot network, with ties to Iran, uses them as cheap tools in its violence-as-a-service model. They are often caught before they get paid – and the method is spreading rapidly from Sweden to Norway, the UK, and beyond, reports the BBC.
    In a suburb of Stockholm, a man dressed in black steps out of the winter night. He carries a pistol and walks straight toward a 20-year-old man, a student on his way home from a late shift at McDonald’s. Shots ring out, and the last shot was fired at the head when the victim was already helpless on the ground.
    The murderer was 18-year-old Atilla Azimov. That night in February 2025, he killed the wrong man – for money. He had been hired by the Foxtrot network, a Swedish criminal gang with links to the Iranian regime. The method is called violence-as-a-service, abbreviated VAAS.
    Azimov was sentenced in December 2025 to life imprisonment for murder, and the court of appeal later upheld the sentence.

    Azimov was sentenced in December 2025 to life imprisonment for murder. Photo: Police
    Teenagers recruited as cheap tools

    Since 2022, Foxtrot is suspected of being behind around 35 murders as well as several attacks on Israeli targets in Europe.
    The network recruits teenagers via social media and gives orders in a way that resembles video games, and they rarely have to worry about paying wages – the young are often arrested before they can demand their money.
    “It is a calculated outsourcing of murders to vulnerable young people,” says Andy Kraag, head of Europol’s organized crime unit, to the BBC.
    Europol’s operational group GRIMM, which includes eleven countries including Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the UK, is now combating the phenomenon.
    It started in Sweden but has since spread across Scandinavia and Northern Europe – and reached the UK last year.
    Norwegian teenager flew in to kill

    Johannes Natland, 19 years old and son of two journalists in Stavanger, was recently found guilty of planning and attempting to carry out a murder at a trial at Old Bailey in London. He had traveled to Huddersfield in March 2025 to perform a mission for Foxtrot. He had weapons and ammunition at the hotel when he was arrested.

    19-year-old Johannes Natland has been found guilty and awaits sentencing in October. Photo: UK Counter Terrorism Police
    Natland has admitted to weapons offenses but denied the planned murder. He will be sentenced in October and faces a long prison term. He was recruited online by a then 16-year-old Norwegian with the alias “The General,” who himself lived in a youth detention center. The order came via a Foxtrot member with the username Agent 47.
    “The General” was sentenced in Norway in May to 14 years in prison for his role in recruiting Natland, as well as for other contract killings. The same “General” had previously recruited both Azimov and a 17-year-old who in January 2025 shot and killed Ahmed Zamzam at Lund central station. The 17-year-old perpetrator was sentenced to eight years in prison.
    No payment – that’s the business model

    None of the young killers were paid.
    “They don’t care at all that the teenagers get arrested. When they are arrested, they cannot demand the money they were promised. We see no examples of money actually being paid out to these young killers,” says SVT’s investigative journalist Diamant Salihu to the BBC.
    “It has been a deliberate policy to recruit younger and younger teenagers because they don’t think about the consequences of being arrested and are more willing to take the risks,” he continues.
    The leader is in Tehran

    Rawa Majid and the recently life-sentenced Ali Shehab in Iraq, suspected to be “Agent 47” Photo: Police
    Foxtrot’s leader Rawa Majid, alias the Kurdish Fox, has fled to Tehran. According to Salihu, cooperation with the Iranian regime began in October 2023.
    “The regime orders the leader of the Foxtrot network to use his network for attacks against the regime’s enemies. These can be dissidents, opposition journalists, or Israeli targets,” Salihu tells the BBC.
    International manhunt bore fruit

    Ali Shehab was recently sentenced to life imprisonment in Iraq. Photo: Iraq’s National Intelligence Service
    Ali Shehab, suspected to be Agent 47, was arrested in Iraq and Sweden has requested his extradition. On Monday, however, SVT reported that he was sentenced to life imprisonment in Iraq.
    Another key player, former rapper Mohamed “Moewgli” Mohdhi, was arrested in Tunisia in May, but Majid himself is still active from Iran.
    And the VAAS method has already been copied by rival gangs such as the Dalen network.

    Also read: Gang leader “Moewgli” arrested in Tunisia
    “They can’t feel safe anywhere”

    Stefan Hector, deputy national police commissioner, says Sweden is constantly expanding cooperation with other countries to show that the criminals “cannot feel safe anywhere in the world.”
    Yet the export continues. Swedish teenage contract killers – recruited online, controlled like in a game, and often left unpaid – have become a European security risk.

    Also read: Foxtrot leader sentenced to life imprisonment in Iraq
    Ofer Maimon
    Reporter

    Email: ofer@bulletin.nu
    X: @ofermaimon”

    https://bulletin.nu/fokus-sveriges-nya-export-tonariga-bestallningsmordare-2

  27. Jan W

    The second blog is upset today and, as it seems to me, this time completely justified. SVT has published a video of a drone crashing onto a beach. Seven killed and 40 injured, it is said, citing a Russian source. SVT also reports Russia’s claim of an attack on civilians.

    The blogger points out that automatic gunfire can clearly be heard in the background. He argues that the drone was simply shot down and crashed on the beach. This appears to be a highly plausible interpretation. Disclaimer: For an amateur.

    This is not the first time SVT has published things that make one wonder what they are actually up to.

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/sorjande-samlas-i-kiev-efter-nattens-attack?inlagg=dd9a0dcd703d151d7c76595091d3dc6e

    2. MacMelmac

      Completely reasonable, yes
      I wrote to SVT and wondered why they only regurgitate Kremlin propaganda.

      The problem with the other blog is that, according to their own motto, they are all SD, G. B
      A.
      SD is the only party in the parliament that is critical of PS. There are usually some PS supporters who come to the rescue when there is an uprising, but they probably don’t dare now for fear of being accused of various invectives and being kicked out of the comment section.

  28. MXT

    Off-Topic

    German bombs detonate in France! World War III is near! 😱 

    (Do I have a future as a clickbait headline writer? 😂)

    “Around 400 bombs from World War II have been found in the French village of Le Porge after the forest fires, local authorities report according to French media.

    They were discovered when residents began hearing loud bangs, initially thought to be exploding gas cylinders. Over 100 explosions were heard during the second night of the fires.

    – We don’t really know why they are here, we think they were just abandoned, says fire chief Thomas Mimiague to AFP.”
    https://omni.se/hundratals-bomber-hittades-efter-brander-i-fransk-by/a/Gx67P6

  29. MXT

    Russia has intensified its missile and drone attacks on civilian ships near the port of Odesa, which handles a large portion of Ukraine’s grain exports. This is according to Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, as reported by Reuters.

    He further states that Ukraine will only be able to export about half as much grain via alternative routes as the country normally does through the Black Sea.

    Ukraine accounts for about 6 percent of global wheat exports and 11 percent of corn exports. Russia’s attacks could affect consumers worldwide, says Vysotskyi.

    – Food will become more expensive.
    https://omni.se/ukraina-attacker-i-svarta-havet-kommer-hoja-matpriser/a/3pVamd

    1. Pehr

      At the same time, Preem mixes 5.7 percent wheat into its gasoline, even though millions will starve in Africa, so that people will continue to believe they are environmentally friendly.
      (The reduction obligation is a real Potemkin facade. The CO2 molecule is the same, regardless of fuel/origin.)

      1. MXT

        What we dig up from the ground such as oil, coal, etc. does not regenerate (at any reasonable pace), but if we burn plants and at the same time continue to cultivate the equivalent at the same rate, we do release CO2 when we use it, but then the corresponding amounts are bound again. 

        (This is among other things why CO2 levels vary quite significantly over the year. When forests, etc. rot during the winter and spring, a lot of CO2 is released, but then it is absorbed again during the growing season.)

        However, if we only clear large rainforests and replace them with, for example, rapeseed cultivation or other crops that we then put into gasoline and diesel, it obviously results in a significant initial net increase of what the forest, etc. originally contained, although it is not quite like that now. 

        People have learned a bit since the mistake of thinking that ethanol would be the solution, which ended in the slaughter of rainforests. The current requirements are set so that it is not just about emissions from the exhaust pipe, but that the entire life cycle emissions must be reduced by currently about 10%, I believe. 

        Of course, there is probably some cheating now as well, and some criticism concerns the fact that agricultural land is taken up that would have been used to grow crops we would have eaten instead, and to cover that need, rainforests are cleared instead, but it is not like before. 

        Moreover, it is not only plant-based materials that are mixed in; HVO consists of slaughterhouse waste, used oil, etc., things that would otherwise have released CO2 when they decompose/break down.

        It is not perfect, of course, but I still think it is far from a Potemkin facade.

        1. johan No.1

          That thing with oil, I sometimes work against the oil industry and heard maybe 10 years ago that some oil fields that have been depleted for 10-15 years can be revisited because they have been refilled.

          Previously, there was never any need to worry and they just opened new ones, but when it was tested, this was discovered. 

          Now it wasn’t just a matter of sticking the nozzle down and starting to slurp it up, but that seems to be the case.

          The reserves that exist are almost ridiculously large and there is reason to believe that shortage warnings have been played up by some for the price.

          The big producers threw diamonds down into basement vaults and created a shortage until China ruined the party with industrial diamonds – that market crashed completely.

          That is not to say that we should move away from oil field-transport-refinery-transport-gas station-car, because we should.

          It is crystal clear that if you have a charging station on solar panels and charge your electric car, you avoid a ridiculously expensive, long, and not particularly environmentally friendly chain.

          But I have stopped believing in the shortage 😀

          Moreover, many car manufacturers are now starting to launch even more fuel-efficient engines and we are probably on our way away from “rare earth” car batteries where the first solid states (or whatever they are called) have started to appear?

          —

          It is a delicate balance between pushing development forward or forcing it too much so that something else gets worse. Politicians generally rarely improve things but at the same time you have to try to steer development in the right direction – but it is the private companies that drive development whichever way it is going.

          Then it is the companies that hold back others that would hit their business as well – they get the politicians on their side 😀

        2. maggan

          The myth about rainforest and ethanol is persistent. They did not grow sugarcane on old rainforest land; it is not suitable for that.

          However, to turn pasture into livestock.

          So concerns about CO2 are best eased if all the worried people stop eating meat. (Preferably without telling me and nagging about it)

        3. Pehr

          Unfortunately, the time it takes to bind emissions in new biomass is generally far too long.
          The only thing that actually makes a difference if you seriously want to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from traffic, besides driving less, is to drive on electricity.
          Furthermore, it is sheer madness to use food to produce ethanol.
          https://detgodasamhallet.com/2021/08/07/lennart-bengtsson-att-elda-biomassa-och-kora-bil-pa-bioetanol-hjalper-inte-klimatet%E2%80%AF/#more-47689

        4. CB500four

          Biodiesel also contains palm oil, and even though the CO2 from that oil is absorbed again by the palms, palm plantations are not a pretty sight.

          I worked about 15 years ago on a project for a paper mill in Sumatra, and when flying from Jakarta to Jambi and looking out, you could see almost the entire way a grid of palm plantations and acacia plantations for paper production.

          The first white man they had seen in the village next to the paper mill was actually a Swede. The paper mill had been built by Swedes and Finns in the early 90s.

      2. Jan W

        I agree that the reduction obligation is somewhat of a joke. The problem is that the raw materials that can be used to make biofuels are very limited. Previously, Sweden consumed 50 percent of the HVO produced in Europe (see SOU 2023:15). This means that someone else is left without and will probably have to choose fossil-based fuel instead. High Swedish blending requirements lead to emissions being shifted.
        But it looks good in terms of recorded Swedish emissions.
        PS. Palm oil is no longer accepted as a raw material for sustainability reasons. If I remember correctly.

      3. Flurrevuppen

        It is completely in line with the modern eco-fascist interpretation of Heidegger’s philosophy… that the human race is destroying the “pure nature” and therefore should be exterminated…

  30. Pehr

    Also in Washington
    “A man has been arrested on suspicion of starting one of three wildfires currently raging outside Spokane in the state of Washington, USA, reports CNN.
    The man was seen, according to Spokane’s police chief, kneeling where the fire started, and shortly thereafter the witness saw smoke coming from the site. He was found by police with waterproof matches and a storm lighter.
    The fires have destroyed over 700 buildings since they broke out on Saturday. About 65,000 people have had to evacuate their homes.”
    https://omni.se/a/16rarX

  31. MXT

    ** ❗️Ukraine will not surrender in the winter — we will not allow anyone to do this. We will fight — each at their post, — Zelenskyy during the presentation of the new Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Ihor Klymenko.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ **
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3msbdbcdfyk2e

    1. MXT

      ** 🇺🇦🇪🇺 Zelensky: We have identified areas for more intensive work with the European Union. This year, two clusters have already been opened in the negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, and we are preparing to open four more clusters. 

      We agreed on three priorities that should be implemented in the future. First: Ukraine is working precisely on full-fledged accession to the European Union, and we consider this as a security task.

      Second: we must now make the most of all the opportunities for Ukraine’s sectoral integration into the European Union. Third: of course, we must build relations at all levels in such a way that Ukraine receives the necessary packages and solutions to support resilience for this winter. **

      https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3msbd7zfh2c2a

  35. MXT

    ** Russia is facing a shortage of vessels for coal exports in the Black Sea following attacks. As of July 26,the number of such vessels had fallen 21% from a month earlier and 28%from a year earlier, leaving 97 bulk carriers still transporting cargo, according to the Centre for Price Indices.

    Earlier, insurers stopped providing coverage for vessels calling at ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin. As a result, medium- and large-size bulk carriers may shift to other trading regions, while smaller vessels unable to relocate have already been placed in cold lay-up.

    Against this backdrop, Russian exporters failed to conclude a single coal sale in the Black Sea over the past week. At the same time, there has been a reduction in available tonnage for transporting fuel in the Sea of Japan. Given the rise in demand for Russian coal in South Korea, this has led to a 5-10%increase in the cost of transporting it by Panamax vessels (80,000 metric tons)from the port of Vostochny over the past week,depending on the route.

    Freight rates to western and eastern India rose to $21.8-23.8 per tonne,to northern China to $12.5 per tonne,& to South Korea to $11.5 per tonne. Rates for Handsize vessels increased by 6-7%, reaching $13.3 per tonne for northern China and $12.3 per tonne for South Korea.**

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3msbbloy6hk22

  37. MXT

    ** ISW: First Pokrovsk, then Huliaipole—now Russia points its logistics-killing air campaign at the Fortress Belt

    The 2025 version took months to set up advances, and this one is expected to move just as slowly.

    Russia is trying to cut off two of Ukraine’s biggest remaining strongholds in the east before it ever storms them, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank finds Moscow reviving a months-long air campaign against supply lines — the same method that preceded its 2025 advances elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. This time, the target is the Fortress Belt, and the effort leans more heavily on glide bombs than before.**

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/08/04/isw-first-pokrovsk-then-huliaipole-now-russia-points-its-logistics-killing-air-campaign-at-the-fortress-belt/

     

    2. CB500four

      Constantly these glide bombs. It’s probably about time for Gripen+meteor, Russian aircraft should not be allowed to come closer than 200km from the border.

  38. johan No.1

    Know that we are not supposed to discuss domestic politics but Jomshoff is out in the media calling everyone Quisling now 😀

    Since I oppose “the Nazi government is a threat to democracy” it is probably good to include that we are not a country under occupation by Nazis who also have a wide Quisling.

    So, the tone is very high right now. We will get a Nazi government no matter how we vote it seems since both accuse the other bloc – haven’t we reached a level that is so low that the whole country needs to take a deep breath and consider if this is a dignified election campaign?

    1. maggan

      Especially since ryz is happy to help free us from a Nazi government, it would be unfortunate if we were guaranteed to get one after the election.

    2. MacMelmac

      Various idiots like Lindberg, Ohly, and others have called various people, even outside SD, both Quisling and Von Papen. Then it’s apparently okay! The hypocrisy on the left is monumental! It’s ok when we do it!

      Jomshof could have commented on this in a much more elegant way than falling into the same sticky hole as the other dimwits. But then again, he has no filter.

      This is the reason why I will not cast my vote for these eight shitty parties that are the cause of the problems we have today. Damn adult daycare!

  40. Erik_den_lange

    I can’t reconcile my perceptions. On the one hand, 30k+ Russians are dying each month from shelling and the front barely moves. On the other hand, fab has gone from 100 to 300 per day, fpv from 3000 to 10,000 per day from the Russians, and the number of soldiers inside Ukraine is increasing rather than decreasing. How can you take 10,000 fab in the head per month and not lose both defensive lines and defenders? How many “fab” does the EU manufacture per month then? By the way, Iran must be Krasnov’s way of making the US lose its breath: no fancy missiles left to defend Europe with now. And China sits securely on that last percent of raw materials so no new ones can be manufactured, I bet. Greenland becomes a fine excuse for Rump to completely freak out about NATO. I remember Russian TV, around 2024, saying that the Baltics would be safe under Russian protection by 2027. My gut feeling is that the 1.5 million men lost and some budget deficit and fuel shortage are mostly speed bumps on the road rather than an impending collapse. In conclusion, I want to thank you for this blog. An anecdote, by the way. A colleague who visited a border town/place near Russia last year was met by an empty community. He asked, where is everyone? The Russians had made some troop movement at the border so everyone had gone out to hunt bears.

    1. johan No.1

      Hi Erik,

      Now I am a bit inattentive but is this a first post and MXT should then stand in his Gävle IF top hat and blow the toy trumpet until he turns dark red in the face wildly swinging an old bandy stick?

      My task as we divided it is then to write a resounding welcome ✊✊

      Yes, I am roughly in line with you, that the dog has a few more bites than many think.

      I didn’t quite understand that anecdote, had the residents been relocated?

      Belarus has already cordoned off forest areas along its border with Poland and Ukraine, 19 in total, right?

      Russia recently completely closed its border with the Baltics and Finland which everyone interprets as preparations for mobilization but it could just as well be for the same reasons as Belarus, to prevent oversight.

      We know a lot is happening in the border areas, I just focus on the Baltics since RU will never ever attack Finland again. Besides what the media writes about them having improved all roads and reinforced all bridges from Smolensk, Pskov and St Petersburg up to the Baltic border and built lots of depots, there has been a lot of artillery and air defense moving that has not appeared in Ukraine.

      The train station in Pskov has received camouflage nets and the entire infrastructure in the border area has previously been prepared to be able to transport heavy equipment – the Russians were finished with that in April this year.

      We know the units exist – 30,000 North Koreans are in place behind the northern front so two Russian army corps can be freed from there without further fanfare and the North Koreans take care of border surveillance instead.

      It is a 10-hour drive on country roads for them up to the Baltic border and not until they pass Smolensk do we know where they are headed.

      Rosgvardia has started to form into maneuver brigades with heavy equipment and is an external resource.

      FSB, GRU, SVR and SOF all have units that are not engaged in Ukraine and they are prioritized for equipment. The production of heavy equipment is high, 250 T90M per year for example.

      The drone weapon branch has its Rubicon which has been greatly expanded according to the Ukrainian model and is available.

      For me, it is a study in madness to see a completely undefended Baltics and that everyone is gambling that everything will work out just because Ukraine has not given up yet.

      This summer was the time we should have sent in our infantry in eastern Baltics to dig fortifications and mine the border again. The Baltics themselves could also have done it actually but they have managed to avoid it for 4.5 years. For over two years they were busy arguing about the thickness of the bunker walls and testing different cement mixes.

      The tank ditches they have managed to dig are like a drainage ditch at the neighbor’s farm approximately.

      Budanov announced in 2025 that RU had changed the timetable for conflict with the Baltics to 2027.

      https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/20/8012745/

      Trump has now withdrawn exactly all offensive American forces from the Baltics under many different pretexts.

      The question everyone should wrestle with is naturally whether RU could accelerate the timetable even more but apparently no one wants to do that.

      Choosing to ignore a heavyweight like Budanov I think is downright irresponsible, if you want peace you must prepare for war everyone knows that and as far as I can see Finland is not gambling at all.

  42. johan No.1

    Pehr,

    When I said that your post that was censored echoed the 1930s, I meant that the censorship was from the 1930s and not your post.

    Saw a worried emoji but your post was democratic and nice.

    I’m just trying to raise awareness that this is how it started, innocent data errors blamed on by the Gestapo and that “there have been disruptions on Whatsapp” and then it was underway.

    1. Pehr

      Yes, I understood that you meant that MXT’s actions resembled the Reich Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda.
      Definitely worth a worried emoji.

  43. fedtmule

    Ok, Erik. So you expect that it is basically destined for Russia to win and for Putin to achieve his goals in 2027.
    Is that how I should interpret your first post on the forum?

  44. MXT

    Good morning!

    1130 KWIA

    5 Tanks

    5 AFVs

    65 Artillery systems

    2 MLRS

    2 Air defense systems

    1715 UAVs

    10 UGVs

    449 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

    3 Special equipment

    Glory to Ukraine

  45. Pehr

    The Russian devils’ terror bombings continue relentlessly. 🤬
    “At least 15 people have been killed and 51 injured in new Russian attacks on the Kyiv region, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service on Telegram.
    The attacks caused fires and destruction in four different districts of the Ukrainian capital during the night, according to Kyiv Post.
    Tymur Tjachenko, head of Kyiv’s military administration, describes it as one of the most tragic Russian attacks so far during the war.
    “Russia has once again brought death and destruction to our country and taken the lives of civilians. For each of these crimes, justice will inevitably take its course,” he writes on Telegram.
    The text is being updated”
    https://omni.se/a/Rj4gd2

  46. Pehr

    ”When the money no longer attracts enough soldiers, Russian recruiters resort to threats, traps, and abuse. Men are reportedly taken off the streets and workplaces and pressured to sign contracts for the war in Ukraine, writes the Wall Street Journal.

    – The authorities have switched to a violent method, where they capture men and send them off, says lawyer Artyom Klyga.

    The development raises new concerns that Vladimir Putin is preparing a second wave of mobilization.”

    ** Russia is arming more men of fighting age for military service to strengthen the army’s dwindling ranks, as voluntary recruitment stagnates and Moscow’s initiatives on the frontline in Ukraine falter.

    In Russia’s smaller towns, some military recruiters have resorted to detaining men on the street, outside their workplaces, or under the pretext of routine document checks, say lawyers, rights activists, and eyewitnesses. Once inside a military recruitment office, men can be threatened or abused until they sign up for the war, they say.

    The pressure campaign is reminiscent of the partial mobilization that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin initiated in the autumn of 2022 when Russia’s frontline positions were about to collapse due to a labor shortage. It has also caused speculation among Russian analysts and the country’s political class about whether another call-up is underway.

    People walk past a recruitment sign for the army with the words “Contract military service in the armed forces” in Saint Petersburg, 2023. (AP)
    Russian authorities have offered life-changing sums of money – often more than a full year’s salary – to those ready to enlist and fight. But recruitment has become harder after stories of abuses within the Russian military and Ukraine’s increasingly deadly capabilities, which have shortened the average soldier’s lifespan at the front to minutes, days, or weeks.

    “The authorities have switched to a violent method, where they capture men and send them off,” says Artyom Klyga, a lawyer trying to help those forced into service.
    The measures offer a counterpoint to the forced recruitment that Ukraine has carried out in response to its own labor shortage.
    While Russia’s recruitment is still officially voluntary, law enforcement officials sometimes work with military recruiters to set traps for men and use violence or threats of arrest if they do not yield to the pressure, the sources say.
    “As soon as I get a weapon, I will shoot those who mobilized me”
    Dmitry Rogin, a 53-year-old Russian reserve officer
    In the southwestern Penza region, where recruiters have pursued their goals more aggressively, local resident Vladislav Leonidov said he found an acquaintance at a military recruitment office after the man had disappeared for several hours in May.
    The man had been called to the local police station under the pretext of verifying his personal information. When he arrived, two military recruiters were waiting for him and carried him to the recruitment office where he was beaten in the liver and kidneys, Leonidov said. He was able to intervene and force the man’s release only when he was transferred for a medical examination.
    “If we had come two hours later, he would already have been taken away,” he said. “They act very quickly.”
    Raids in Penza by police or recruiters have caught the attention of locals who have posted videos online protesting the practice.
    A video outside a military recruitment office shows men in civilian clothes sitting inside a military bus barricaded by crying women.
    “They beat you, they forced you!” says one of the women through tears.
    Russian authorities, who for years have happily pointed out Ukraine’s forced conscription, have downplayed the events and threatened a tougher crackdown on circulating videos of them.
    The head of Penza’s recruitment office, Andrey Surkov, said at a government briefing that all raids in the region targeted those avoiding service. The Penza branch of the Ministry of Internal Affairs has denied that raids send men to the front and has threatened legal consequences for those who publish or share them.
    “These video publications have no connection to sending people to the zone of the special military operation,” said a statement from the ministry, using the official euphemism for the war in Ukraine. “Those who spread false information will face legal consequences in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation.”
    Blogger Stanislav Morozov, who has worked to highlight the issue in a documentary, said he is under investigation by Russia’s feared Federal Security Service. “They have not forbidden me to continue, but they have made it clear that it is in my best interest not to,” he said.
    Of the dozens of relatives he has spoken to, he said, most agreed to sign a contract when police threatened to plant drugs on them and arrest them on the spot.

    Russia’s economic problems and Ukraine’s growing capabilities have increased the urgency around the issue of mobilization.

    Part of the pressure comes from regional programs in various parts of Russia that offer third parties cash, in most cases 100,000 rubles, about 1,300 dollars, to bring someone to the recruitment office.

    Morozov said posters hang in apartment buildings across Penza promising: “Bring a friend to the recruitment center and get 100,000 rubles.”

    Similar campaigns exist elsewhere, such as Tatarstan, where Russia produces most of its drones, as well as in the Amur and Yaroslavl regions, and in cities like Kaluga, Voronezh, and Arkhangelsk. The number of cases of forced recruitment has also increased, said Klyga and rights workers.

    Analysts say the measures have likely been blessed by the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense but are implemented to varying degrees depending on the region.
    The tactic is largely linked to accelerating Russian losses at the front, now estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 dead and wounded each month, according to military analysts.
    “Just as many people somehow have to be taken into service, and the fewer there are willing to sign a contract, the more pressure they must exert,” says Grigory Sverdlin, founder of Get Lost, a non-governmental anti-war organization that helps Russians avoid service.

    A bus with an advertisement seeking contract service in the Russian armed forces in Saint Petersburg, 2024. (Dmitri Lovetsky/AP)
    U.S. officials say the efforts have likely increased the number at the front but probably not enough to make any major breakthroughs. Instead, they say, the Kremlin is still considering the possibility of announcing another round of forced mobilization, which could bring several thousand more soldiers to the front. Such a measure, they say, would likely come after the Russian parliamentary election, scheduled for September 20.
    Russia’s economic problems and Ukraine’s growing capabilities have made the issue of mobilization even more urgent. If Putin chooses to stick to his demands to take the entire eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, “he may have no choice but to announce a mobilization,” says Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank.
    While the first round of mobilization was intended to seize reservists and men with military experience, another round would likely bring men with little experience or willingness to fight to the front.
    The political risks of such a measure could outweigh the military benefits at the front. Some Russians say they would resist such a measure with violence.
    “As soon as I get a weapon, I will shoot those who mobilized me,” says Dmitry Rogin, a 53-year-old Russian reserve officer who is among those potentially subject to conscription.**
    By the Mer editorial team
    Published: Today 06:00
    https://omni.se/rysslands-soldatjakt-hardnar-nar-de-frivilliga-blir-farre/a/k0Kg5a

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