Today we dive into hybrid warfare (again) but first a calibration that everyone now agrees that Ceuta was a state-coordinated hybrid attack.
There are videos of buses full of people driving up to the border and unconfirmed reports that personnel from the Moroccan security services were among the crowd, in addition to Morocco completely opening its own border control and then assaulting those who tried to return to Morocco.
After that, opinions diverge like Moses and the Red Sea, roughly, which is why there is value in continuing to discuss this.
The last time Ceuta was visited was apparently in 2021 when Spain and Morocco were in discussions that went half well and 8,000 people crossed the border into Ceuta.
This time it was possibly because Spain’s Sanchez visited Algeria, which made the Moroccans a bit upset.
Others suggest it was because the Spanish Supreme Court decided that if people arrive by sea, they cannot automatically be sent back.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/01/europe/spain-morocco-migrants-intl
Spain decided in 2026 to issue an amnesty for undocumented migrants, which eventually reached around one million.
It is not far-fetched to guess that people were told that if they enter by sea, which in this case means going around a breakwater, and come up on the beach in Ceuta, they are automatically entitled to the amnesty (which is already over). A story is concocted on social media that gives people false hope and manages to get 60,000 to cross the border into Ceuta.
Now I circle back to my earlier posts about the summer of 2026, which were written last winter and spring, where we guessed that this year would be the mother of all hybrid wars.
We went through that the entire perimeter defense against the Mediterranean in 2026 is basically intact, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Italy, France, and Portugal have all taken the position that people who enter illegally are sent back promptly.
Trafficking will always exist, but large state-supported campaigns are no longer possible in these countries.
The only country that has not adopted this new line is Spain, apart from actually the UK and Ireland, which are not on the perimeter defense in the same way as these.
Up north, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have completely closed their borders now and attempts at hybrid warfare through trafficking from Belarus and Russia have completely died out. Probably the players have simply gotten tired of sitting and freezing at the border without further prospects of moving on.
It is therefore not insignificant at all that it is precisely Spain that has been targeted.
As a government, you have a great deal of responsibility and one of them is to protect your citizens and do what is best for the people in the country besides managing your relations with your friends.
Has Spain colonized Ceuta and Melilla and should they be returned – a question to ponder perhaps.
Today’s Morocco was part of the empire that conquered the Iberian Peninsula for centuries before they were expelled, and thereafter the Spaniards took Ceuta from the Portuguese. In the 1500s, they were declared Spanish territories with today’s autonomous status.
The Spaniards should keep completely quiet about Gibraltar and not complain so loudly about other countries’ land grabs because they themselves have a piece of land they have kept outside their own territory simply because they can.
Or should they do what they demand of others and return Ceuta and Melilla to Morocco?
Ceuta has around 90,000 inhabitants, of whom a not insignificant part are of Moroccan origin. The incident itself involved over 60,000 who entered in a short time from Morocco and then most left.
If this had been an attempted invasion, it probably would have succeeded, so the Spanish government has absolutely not taken its task seriously here. Before the incident, there were 170 police officers and 2,000-3,000 soldiers in the enclave. They were completely unable to solve their task and had to call for reinforcements from Spain because they were overrun and the citizens had to lock themselves in for a few days.
Then the stories differ – I now follow some residents in Ceuta and they are of the very strong opinion that about 15,000 still remain in the area despite military presence.
There have been some murders (not those who died trying to get in) and extensive looting with accompanying arson. If where I live I am forced to lock myself in because there are riots, I expect the state to solve it – is that wrong thinking?
Some videos now circulating suggest that those who stayed are a bit more prone to rioting than those who chose to leave – but now the influence operations are in full swing and all kinds of videos are being spread.
The Spanish government has chosen to downplay the event which has instead led to domestic political disputes.
The rest of Europe, which was not supportive of the earlier amnesty, immediately went hard and demanded border control; if Spain could not manage it, they would impose it on Spain.
So what is the problem besides that the residents of Ceuta had to stay home without Friday night relaxation?
Well, that the Spanish government, by not understanding that these are difficult times, makes it easy for others to wage hybrid war against them, and in the long run risks a government crisis.
Spain is already today a weak government supported by the far right and far left – both flanks are influenced by Russia.
Spain is also the country after Canada with the largest military presence in the Baltics.
The Spanish government has strongly criticized the USA in the Iran war and is clear with Israel about what they think of Israel’s colonization of Palestinian territories.
Right or wrong, one can at least conclude that Spain does not lack enemies, and if you have enemies you should at least ensure that you can manage your own self-defense, I think.
Poland, Finland, and the Baltics have had exactly the same problems and are light years more exposed to hybrid warfare than Spain is – they solved their incidents quite harshly and today have full control.
We will return to the forest fires but they are naturally also part of hybrid warfare.
2015 was what is today called the migration crisis, the USA had long been at war in the Middle East and large refugee flows had then gone towards Turkey, Lebanon, and other countries further west because it was virtually impossible to stay.
A bit like Angola had it, I learned when I went there for work in 2006, first the army came and looted, raped, and murdered, the next week the rebels came and looted, raped, and murdered – for the civilian population the only constant was rape, murder, and looting.
Then Russia came and was even worse, so the refugee flows became even larger.
Russia’s early presence in Africa was around that time and China had been there for a long time. Russia’s Wagner is today in a large number of countries in Africa and they desecrate, loot, and torture their way through wherever they always side with the worst party.
Europe had a couple of years where we all understood our previous debt on the continent, but it has also led to us having an acute aversion to reestablishing ourselves there. The USA was simply kicked out of a couple of countries along with France not so long ago.
The only country that is really there now trying to do good is Ukraine, which sends capabilities to every country where Russia is present to decimate wherever they can.
You don’t read much about Africa anymore, but Russia is absolutely the worst that continent has had to deal with in a long time. Previously fragile democracies that were slowly starting to function got the full brunt of Russian subversive activities and collapsed into civil wars or dictatorships.
Mozambique, which was the country that always worked, has today been on the brink of civil war – to me, it is incomprehensible. I worked with a Portuguese man born in Mozambique when I was in Nigeria 2023 – 2024 and we discussed this all the time since his family and relatives lived in the area that was worst affected. The family left for Portugal but the parents wanted to stay. Fun anecdote, but when he was little they were poor farmers, so he ran two miles to school in shorts without a T-shirt and cooked his food over an open fire at home.
In 2015, Turkey carried out a large transport of people from Syria and Afghanistan into Europe, and many also crossed the Mediterranean from the African continent – it was probably a couple of million in total after a few years, where countries like Italy, Greece, and others chose to bus them further up into Europe as their capacity to handle the situation was completely overwhelmed by the numbers.
In 2016, the UK voted for its Brexit, where Nigel Farage, who we now know took Russian money, promised that all migration problems would be solved on the day if the vote was yes. Lucky for him that there was a migration crisis at the same time, one must conclude in hindsight.
In the rest of Europe, anti-migration parties like the National Front (or whatever they are called today) in France and AfD in Germany have now become so strong that they are on the verge of winning elections – and they have strong ties to Russia.
Here, you can either do like Spain and not see that state actors are behind and seize opportunities in flight that they themselves have created over time, or you accept that Europe as a continent is exposed to a low-intensity hybrid war by probably everyone else.
Basically, no one wants a strong Europe because everyone knows what happens then. We made China into addicts, the British had the empire where the sun never set which they could plunder around the clock, and if we weren’t busy colonizing others, we fought among ourselves – history is just war, war, war.
It is in everyone else’s DNA to keep an eye on us, and since the Cold War ended when we were scared, divided, and weak, we have now formed ourselves into the fairly large block EU and are to “arm ourselves to the teeth.”
Europe is thinking completely right – we shall grow through trade and make friends, not through the game of who has the most fire tubes wins.
The problem is just that no one else cares, and we have now reached the level of hybrid war in Europe, which we so far handle really poorly.
The forest fires in Europe are the next part of this year’s folk festival, took a really long time but now the media is slowly beginning to admit that they are arson. There are always domestic political points to be scored on everything, and since it did not fit anyone’s power ambitions, it was overlooked.
France has arrested 375 people for setting forest fires now.
Portugal 155
Greece 33
Strangely enough, Spain remains silent, but the idea that they would have spontaneous grass fires when everyone else has arsonists running around like a kindergarten class that discovered the kitchen door was unlocked – that is incredible.
I amused myself with this
https://currentwildfires.com/en
The pro-Russian countries Bulgaria, Serbia, and Slovakia have very few forest fires this year.
In Belarus, there is almost nothing.
Poland and the Baltics, which have already openly declared war on hybrid warfare, also do not have many forest fires.
Countries that support Ukraine are like a big Walpurgis Night bonfire.
The Baltics have since July strengthened surveillance at high-value targets in their countries.
Is it over now?
Probably not, another low-odds bet is all the “terror attacks” and “hate crimes,” and now Iran is also fighting for its survival, so the gloves are off and the claws are out.
Admittedly, we seem to entertain ourselves with such things ourselves when leaders in Aftonbladet and Sydöstran followed BLT’s article and proclaimed “Nazi arson attack and threat to democracy” the same night someone tried to set fire to a polling station in Sölvesborg. It was probably also the same newspapers that urged calm regarding Ceuta.
The perpetrator had roots in Kosovo, a difficult life, and was probably mentally ill, so it quickly died out.
Yes, one can play with the idea that if a person runs into Stockholm Central Station in priest clothes shouting loudly “praise God in heaven HALLELUJAH,” most people would probably just curiously watch when he slams his backpack on the floor. If a person instead shouts “Allahu Akbar” when throwing the backpack on the floor, the place quickly empties.
So there is some concern already to capitalize on after the last ten years’ terrorist attacks, but they were also part of the hybrid warfare that has been simmering. State-prioritized activity in Russia, during the Cold War 85% of the KGB budget went to spreading unrest in the West.
Iran has also been active for a long time, and during the war against ISIS, they targeted Europe.
Russia was quick to spread unrest around Ceuta on social media, and they are quick to spread unrest with terror attacks they themselves have carried out through proxies. The attacks are designed to create unrest and anger; severed heads, mass shootings, machete attacks where the perpetrators are maladjusted outsiders or criminals doing it for payment.
The neo-Nazi attacks as well – they pay people to paint graffiti on Jewish synagogues or mosques.
Bacon in the Quran or caricatures of Muhammad are also part of their activities – polarizing and creating conflict zones that barely existed before.
Finally, nerves are on edge and group stands against group – just as they want it.
The next extremely low-hanging fruit is black swans when times get uneasy, an attack on a country that sends shockwaves straight into the markets and causes a financial crisis.
Then a country turns completely inward and could hardly care less whether the Baltics are invaded or not.
These things happen all the time, and we ourselves today have sanctions against Russia, Iran, North Korea, and most recently China, so why wouldn’t they be allowed to do the same to us in the way they can?
The laws of war apply and Europe is already at war with Russia, we may think we are not, but for Russia we are already a belligerent party since we finance the entire war for Ukraine. Iran is fighting for its survival.
As we are heading towards a possible financial crisis this autumn or later, I see Trump’s constant trade attacks on us and a possible conflict zone in the Baltics from Russia as attempts at black swans.
And China’s export ban on things we really need for our own production.
What’s done is done and we cannot rewind the tape, but today we can accept that Europe is in a low-intensity hybrid war and act accordingly.
To believe that it does not affect us when Finland is already preparing for war today or the Baltics are going into staff mode for urgent sabotage threats is borderline ridiculous.
Russia has all of Europe as its playing field and usually strikes where it is easiest.
Right now they are test-running a thunder-run on Europe’s perimeter defense again and exploiting the drought to create forest fires, during the autumn they may fan unrest in shaky financial markets and continue to polarize and set groups against each other in countries – why would they stop if we don’t stop supporting Ukraine?
Since we must support Ukraine, we might as well accept the obvious fact and start addressing the problem that will not die on its own.
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Good morning and thank you for a nice yellow wall.
Unfortunately, I share your view on the state of affairs.
Even the Supreme Commander (ÖB) is clear about it.
” Supreme Commander urges: Be mentally prepared for a Russian attack
Supreme Commander Michael Claesson visited the Swedish Defence University on Friday.
Supreme Commander Michael Claesson visited the Swedish Defence University on Friday. Photo: Ari Luostarinen
A couple of seconds. That is more warning than the defense can count on if Russia chooses to test NATO’s cohesion by attacking a Swedish target. That is what Supreme Commander Michael Claesson says when SvD meets him at the Swedish Defence University: “The risk of sabotage is obvious.”
Photo by Mathias Ståhle
Photo by Ari Luostarinen
Mathias Ståhle
and Ari Luostarinen (Photo)
Published 06:09
Updated 06:35
The military nightmare scenario for NATO’s European member states right now is easy to summarize: That Russia may test the defense alliance’s cohesion by attacking a target in Europe.
Signals that this could happen in the near future have been frequent over the past year, from countries such as Finland, the Baltics, and Poland. That is, from the same states that are usually highlighted as the most likely targets if the scenario becomes reality.
But what do the warnings that Russia may “test” another NATO country mean? That question is almost impossible to answer, and it is therefore not even possible to rule out that Russia instead chooses a Swedish target, according to the Supreme Commander:
– The risk of sabotage is completely obvious for all states that provide support to Ukraine, says Michael Claesson when SvD meets him during a visit to the Swedish Defence University in Stockholm.
What could such a scenario look like if the attack was directed at a Swedish target?
– Then I am talking about military operations with, for example, special forces and on a smaller scale. More to observe, measure, and test our reaction patterns. Both political and military, says the Supreme Commander and continues:
– We see that they are constantly searching for, identifying, and exploiting vulnerabilities in our Swedish systems. That does not necessarily mean that they intend to carry out a military operation. But having said that, I do not rule that out either.
No tank armies
The risk of a traditional military attack against Sweden or another NATO military country is currently considered to remain low, according to SvD’s sources with insight into the defense staff’s planning work. So also by the Supreme Commander personally:
– I do not see a Russian tank army around the corner ready to jump on anyone right now. And the reason for that is that virtually the available Russian army is tied up in combat in Ukraine, says Michael Claesson.
But if we stick to smaller-scale attacks. How much warning can we expect?
– It is from zero warning and upwards. Depending on the intelligence we have. But if you want to play on the conspiratorial side, neither you nor I know what is in a container in the port of Gothenburg. Is it a number of pre-programmed swarming drones with some kind of armament or something else?
And a less conspiratorial scenario?
– Then it is what is usually called hybrid warfare. To slowly but deliberately erode our political decision-making environments, trust in our European defense forces, and our political systems to burden society through sabotage and operations in the information environment. They want us to lose confidence in our own ability to create freedom of action for themselves.
Ewa Skoog Haslum, head of the Defence Operations Command.
Ewa Skoog Haslum, head of the Defence Operations Command. Photo: Ari Luostarinen
An example of the latter was evident in the Baltic Sea during spring and early summer 2026.
This after the Coast Guard and police boarded ships linked to the Russian shadow fleet on five occasions. In two cases, ships sailing under a false flag were boarded while entering Swedish territorial waters.
The boardings caused Russia to change tactics regarding oil transports. Since last summer, the shadow fleet has traveled openly under the Russian flag in the Baltic Sea, and the ships are reported to be protected by armed personnel or escorted by Russian warships, which SvD recently reported.
– The purpose of this is to send the signal: if you board us, you may be met with armed resistance. The purpose is to try to raise the threshold for us to intervene, said Niklas Granholm, research leader at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) at the time.
Difficult to assess
Also a risk scenario that could potentially involve the Swedish Armed Forces, says Ewa Skoog Haslum, head of the Defence Operations Command:
– I claim that it is an escalation. It is part of their deterrence, and we have plans for it together with other authorities if it should escalate.
The Swedish Armed Forces monitor all Russian activities in the Baltic Sea area closely around the clock. The big problem is interpreting the incoming information, according to Ewa Skoog Haslum:
– A clear example. What does it mean if a Russian missile flies into Polish territory? That happened the other night. Was it a navigation error or was it done deliberately to test our reactions? What do we do if it happens repeatedly? she says.
Supreme Commander Michael Claesson:
– Without wanting to scare anyone in any way, we need to create an awareness that there are long-term strategic goals from the Russian side that are antagonistic. We must understand that this is a problem that we constantly have to assess. And when we do that, we are also mentally and practically better prepared if it happens.”
https://www.svd.se/a/V6d2v6/ob-michael-claesson-sabotage-mot-sverige-uppenbar-risk
**Ukraine combines deep strikes on Russian targets with new sanctions on Moscow’s defense industry.**
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-pairs-deep-strikes-on-russian-targets-with-new-sanctions-on-moscows-defense-industry/
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-08-04
SLAVA UKRAINI