A lot is happening – Trump and Xi have agreed that China will help resolve the Iran war. If Xi got anything positive regarding Taiwan, it has not been communicated, but Trump’s response to questions is to pretend he doesn’t know what Taiwan is, so it was probably discussed.
There seems to be a lot of trade agreements and investments – congratulations USA, we in the EU tried all through 2025 but China was not interested. The USA does what is good for them and is, just like the bank, not our friend, as someone might say.
Before the end of May, Putin is supposed to fly to Beijing to meet Xi.
And then Trump has another visit this year, it would be exciting (meaning worrying) if Putin and Trump go to Beijing at the same time.
As thanks for the ceasefire on May 9, Putin has now launched one of the larger missile attacks of the war against Ukraine, and it seems UA did not shoot down many of the missiles. This probably has to do with Trump holding back Patriots.
Then 205 on the site johanno1.se has a daily report on the number of attacks – this may be due to the ceasefire but from May 8 to May 12 (there was a pause in the middle) UA attacks have been around 100 and fluctuate a bit below RU’s, as theirs have decreased.
If this holds for a while, these were the dates for the start of UA offensive operations but we need another week. UA themselves no longer communicate anything, so no internet disruptions.
Now Latvia’s government and parliament have just fallen – according to themselves, it was the aftermath of two Ukrainian drones hitting some combined heat and power plant or similar that crashed the government – if you don’t have a government, can you invoke Article 5 then?
Belarus has had 42 defense exercises just during May 2026, Lukashenko constantly talks about war and they have mobilized reserves.
Besides that, they have built defenses against Ukraine.
We laughed a lot at Belarus in 2022–2023 but they have been trained by former Wagner veterans since 2023, and also practiced drone warfare in 2026, so they are probably quite capable now.
It is unlikely that Belarus would go to war, but they act as an anchor to prevent UA from attacking northwards and then a threat to Poland – so Putin can rampage in the Baltics in peace.
That was that.
The 2nd Armored Brigade from the USA was supposed to arrive in Poland soon for rotation but it has been canceled, it was 4,000 strong.
You can see where US soldiers are stationed in the link below but it is only in Germany and Poland that the USA is withdrawing personnel at the moment.
https://www.cfr.org/articles/where-are-us-forces-deployed-europe
In Poland, it is the only ground combat brigade that is leaving, and it seems the 5,000 from Germany are the Stryker Brigade, which was the only combat ground unit they had in Germany.
https://www.dw.com/en/vilseck-germany-a-town-on-edge-over-us-troop-withdrawal/a-77081982
So they are removing the American spearhead in the Baltic area for those who did not understand.
You know what I think about the Baltics but regardless of that, Europe must quickly fill this gap.
The size of the “tripwire” in the Baltics is a few thousand, and Germany has not yet deployed its mechanized brigade.
I have the impression that our Swedish battalion is back and will rotate out this summer?
On the subject, our defense forces have praised the Aurora exercise as a major capability boost and some armored scouts received training in drone warfare, which instantly doubled our drone strike capability.
Now some Ukrainian who was on the red team revealed that the Swedish unit had to stop the exercise three times and restart because we got beaten so badly – called a silver medal in war.
All Swedish defense Twitter users call this a Russian influence operation, so they make a double mistake – first overestimating their own capability and then not even wanting to accept the criticism. This has been tried many times throughout world history, rarely with good results for anyone other than one’s opponents.
Now this is the third or fourth exercise since 2025 where Ukraine crushes NATO units and shocked colonels say we apparently have a lot to learn – I don’t believe for a second that the Ukrainian is lying, he was probably also fair in his criticism because he got good food during the visit.
Sweden is probably quite far ahead compared to many countries in Europe, so it is hard to deny that we are absolutely not ready for war in a drone-saturated combat environment in Europe 2026.
I have long wondered why Europe has not sent units to Ukraine that have learned, but that is not the whole problem. For quite a while, we were not even interested in Ukraine teaching us around Europe either – it probably started sometime in 2025 or so?
We felt we wanted to continue training them instead until Ukraine got tired because we had nothing more to teach, so they stopped sending units to us.
What will break this Golgotha march is when fire-and-forget interceptor drones are out in the units, but they are not there yet for a while – I guessed this fall but the snail pace right now suggests that is wildly optimistic.
First, you have to get the weapon/ammunition in sufficient quantity, then it has to be taught, and finally distributed to the units. Ukraine discovered quite quickly in MENA that what they thought was simple fire-and-forget technology crashed completely when soldiers without practical experience tried to use them – training was required.
Russian “unmanned systems forces” are probably around 100,000 strong today, and we got beaten by a Ukrainian drone group or two.
On top of that, RU has proven capacity to launch about 500 Geran drones every other day, which we also have no countermeasures against.
As this develops with Trump and Putin at Xi’s this year, the upcoming financial crisis and a real threat to the Baltics in some form – you know my guess, try to get an answer from us just as the financial crisis hits and then capital flees risk, there is only one thing for Europe to do.
We have one game left until we don’t have it anymore, so it has a deadline –
Deploy our units in the Baltics before the Russians get there, we simply have to take the hit. Mechanized units are rolling coffins, so SOF, rangers and light units – the infantry’s revenge and old Norrland shooting will feel like princes that they can finally look down on Skåne armor after 80 years of mocking Skåne people in black berets.
Start digging in along the border and mine like crazy – if Finland could do it during one autumn before the Soviets attacked, we can do it too.
Completely ignore all discussions about ceasefire in the Ukraine war and agree with Zelensky that the further their offensive reaches east in Ukraine, the more money and materiel they get, an exponential curve.
If we don’t do this within months, we will have done the classic of first saying “if you want peace, prepare for war” and then not making any preparations at all and standing there very surprised when the war came to us.
If we have rotated our battalion in place, it shall stay, and when the Danes come, they stay too. Then send over our light battalion and all available rangers – then we will have done what Sweden can. I guess the rest will go to Finnish Lapland, Gotland, coup defense, and national defense?
Finland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, send what they have available as well. Poland and Germany have Lithuania as their main responsibility.
They have to dig in a bit inside from the border in eastern Latvia/Estonia because it is an area the Baltics themselves cannot prioritize – they instead defend the areas where their larger cities are located.
Europe redirects our satellite reconnaissance to the area on the Russian side and UA assists with observation drones.
ATESH, UA SOF, and Russian liberation fighters are allowed to conduct reconnaissance inside RU territory in the Pskov area. They can probably get help from Russian-speaking Baltic rangers in UA uniforms just so it doesn’t become an embarrassing parade on TV if they are captured.
When they identify targets, Ukraine can strike them as part of their drone attacks – there are currently depots and units hidden in the area on the Russian side, and if you can start wearing them down, it always does something.
Ukraine has struck targets in the Pskov area at least three times, so they are probably already assisting the Baltics, and maybe it’s underway, who knows?
For RU to cross the border, they need to advance, and what still works on a drone-saturated battlefield in 2026 is infantry in well-built defenses, preferably in forested terrain – I think all serious analysts have drawn that conclusion.
If RU has directly available say 20,000 – 50,000 troops, then our units will act as a deterrent and raise the threshold, forcing them to move units from the northern front, which can be seen on satellite and immediately spread in the media.
They also don’t have a lot to spare if Ukraine keeps up the pressure.
If we then don’t have a ceasefire in Ukraine, maybe this can work, but it probably won’t be so fun for the front line – but the whole narrative where RU infiltrates into undefended terrain and first flatly denies it and then claims it’s Baltic liberation fighters disappears because they strike directly against our defense a few kilometers inside the border and the whole world knows they started a war against us.
I have decided that NATO’s Article 5 will be a big nothing-burger, first NATO will not be able to agree because the USA, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Turkey will not vote in favor.
Then a couple of countries will immediately see the chance to back out – “all or none, we are ready but only if everyone else joins.”
Several countries have elections today, big political problems, or no government at all – Denmark, UK, Sweden (soon), and Latvia.
A bunch of countries must vote in their parliaments to send troops, I think it’s Germany, Denmark, Finland, Norway, USA. Government coalitions with small majorities mean it can be voted down in the worst case.
In Sweden, we can send everything except conscripts, but then the government’s 24 ministers must vote in a meeting and there are four parties.
Since the whole setup is reactive, this will end with Russian units having had time to go on an excursion a few miles straight into the Baltics and then dig in, mine everything again, and build a defense we will never get through before the necessary decisions are made, so the messages from all countries’ Chiefs of Defense will then be that it would be absolute suicide to even try to retake the terrain – pop balloon.
Besides that, the units have to get into the Baltics when Suwalki is closed and the Baltic Sea fleet is out at sea bobbing.
The only game we have left is to get enough units into the area now so RU realizes that they will have to fight their way forward a kilometer inside the border and that it will then be full war with us.
It will be exciting to see what our elected representatives around Europe actually choose to do, I am a bit bruised after four years of war in Ukraine but now after all it is our own security we are talking about.
And above all the whiplash injury from the accident – that capital flees risk in Europe when the crisis hits this autumn, because capital does not like war then.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-15
SLAVA UKRAINI
205, I replied to your comments in yesterday’s post:
https://johanno1.se/sv/ryska-forluster-over-tid/#comment-87228
I can send you the data if
you want to try it.
Note that the total, which is always stated at the beginning of the report, says combat engagements (various translations) but never mentions Russia/AFRF/enemy in this sense. This means that one cannot claim that the total consists only of Russian attacks. However, Russia/enemy is almost always mentioned in the report for each sector. Here it is explicitly clear that it concerns Russian attacks. This is how it has looked at least over the past year. An increasing discrepancy between the total and the sum of the sectors has occurred especially over the past year and has been steadily rising. Partly, the increasingly dense drone coverage should be able to be reported under each respective sector. The drone coverage is, one must assume, related to a front sector. Also, if one talks about combat engagements without specifying them as attacks/offensives and without indicating who is behind them, it is difficult to conclude anything other than that these are own attacks not reported under each sector due to, for example, OPSEC, and that the front sections only reflect what Russia is doing. Including them in the total is, on the other hand, logical since a Ukrainian attack reasonably falls under the general term combat engagements, and the report is not exclusively focused on Russian actions: among other things, it has long reported Ukrainian missile unit activities. This is done, as with the total of combat engagements before reporting each section (just before).
I like to take a look at the data! (You already have my email address, right?)
It is a shame that AFU is a bit unclear, leaving room for interpretations.
Of course, I understand that they want to hide their own activities, at least where they have taken place.
I admit that I don’t read the entire report thoroughly every day, but the times I have done so, they have only written about Russian attacks. The only place where it has not been clear is at the total, but that makes it easy to conclude that it also refers to Russian attacks.
But if they sometimes write about Ukrainian attacks, that reasoning does not hold.
Now I only look at the morning report; later reports might usually be formatted differently?
Morning report (translated by DeepL):
Current information at 08:00 on May 15, 2026, about the Russian invasion
Honor to Ukraine!
It is now the 1542nd day of Russia’s extensive armed aggression against Ukraine.
#General, not specified who:
A total of 257 combat engagements have been recorded in the past 24 hours.
Yesterday, the enemy carried out a missile attack with 55 rockets and 95 airstrikes, dropping 323 guided bombs. In addition, 8,517 kamikaze drones were used and 2,884 shellings of populated areas and our troops’ positions were conducted, including 82 with rocket artillery systems.
The aggressor carried out airstrikes, especially in the areas around the settlements of Fotovizh, Pustogorod, Budky, and Vorozhba in the Sumy region.
#Ukrainian missile troops:
In the past 24 hours, the 🇺🇦 defense forces’ 🇺🇦 air force, missile troops, and artillery struck two areas where enemy forces were concentrated as well as another important target for the Russian invaders.
#Front sections:
In the northern Slobozhansk and Kursk directions, 🇷🇺the attacker🇷🇺 conducted three airstrikes with seven KABs, carried out 97 shellings of our troops’ positions and settlements, including 12 using MLRS. Seven hostile storm actions have been recorded.
In the southern Slobozhansk direction, 🇷🇺the enemy🇷🇺 attacked our troops’ positions 14 times in the areas around the settlements of Vovchanski Khutory, Lyman, Staritsa, as well as in the direction of Ternove, Radkivka, and Izbytske.
In the Kupiansk area, 🇷🇺the enemy🇷🇺 attacked four times in the areas around the localities of Kurylivka, Novoplatonivka, and Pishchane.
and so on, which sums up to 137 enemy attacks.
257-137=120 unlocated
120/137=0.876, thus the same high ratio level as in recent days. Not far from nearly half of all combat engagements being unlocated.
Sending the data when I have compiled today’s.
👍
AFU reports:
💥🔥✊👍 Ännu en attack på ett oljeraffinaderi!
** Massive fire erupts at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery as Ukraine reportedly launches large-scale drone strikes.
Ukraine’s military reportedly launched a large-scale drone attack overnight on May 15, striking Russian military and energy infrastructure in multiple regions of Russia, Russian Telegram media channels reported.**
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-oil-refinery-military-airfield-in-multiple-russian-regions/
“Ukraine managed to regain more territory than Russia captured last month, CNN writes based on figures from the think tank ISW. Commander Kyrylo Bondarenko believes there has been a shift at the front and that the Russians are beginning to become exhausted.
– We have managed to turn the tide, says Bondarenko, who belongs to a drone unit currently located near Zaporizhzhia.
According to ISW, this is the first time since the Ukrainian lightning offensive in Russian Kursk 2024 that Ukraine has regained more territory than it has lost. Christina Harward at ISW says this undermines Vladimir Putin’s narrative that a Russian victory in the war is inevitable.”
https://omni.se/trendbrott-i-ukraina-vi-har-lyckats-vanda-vinden/a/Wv62Ga
Off-Topic, The Meeting Between the USA and China
“President Donald Trump says that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing airplanes, reports CNBC.
A major airplane deal was expected during Trump’s visit to China. Analysts had anticipated a larger order, around 500 planes, according to the channel. Among those on the trip is Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg.”
https://omni.se/trump-kina-koper-200-boeing-plan-farre-an-vantat/a/Pd522z
—
”
Donald Trump flattered Xi Jinping while the Chinese president himself took a significantly tougher stance. This is written by New York Times journalist David Sanger in an analysis.
Trump began the state visit by praising Xi Jinping and his control over a country with over a billion inhabitants.
“Xi, unsurprisingly, devoted very little time to flattery. When the salute shots were over, the disciplined Chinese leader immediately moved on to setting the boundaries for the relationship between the countries,” writes Sanger.
China’s strategy in the relationship with the USA is not to yield, to negotiate hard, and to play the long game. This is written by Sky News correspondent Helen-Ann Smith in an analysis.
During the meeting, Trump asked for help in opening the Strait of Hormuz, something Xi, according to the president, agreed to.
“But Trump deceives himself if he thinks China will serve him a breakthrough on a silver platter, despite positive tones from the White House after today’s talks,” writes Smith and continues:
“It is not wrong to say that China wants to see the strait opened again – they have also been economically affected by the closure – but they do not want Trump to come out of this whole debacle as a winner.””
https://omni.se/analyser-xi-vill-inte-att-trump-kommer-ur-debaclet-som-en-segrare/a/Ar79wq
—
“Donald Trump claims that the USA and China have concluded new trade agreements during the ongoing summit, writes AFP. The comment was made while Xi Jinping showed Trump around the Zhongnanhai gardens in central Beijing.
– Much good has come from the meeting. We have agreed on some fantastic trade deals that are good for both countries, says Trump.
During the night, Trump has among other things said that China wants to buy American oil, which caused the oil price to rise slightly on Friday morning.
On the trip, Trump has brought hopes of making major agreements within the aviation industry, the agricultural industry, and AI. Some smaller deals have so far been communicated, but Bloomberg describes it as the markets still waiting for a bigger breakthrough.”
https://omni.se/trump-om-motet-vi-har-slutit-fantastiska-avtal-med-kina/a/Gx0gg9
Off-Topic, the war in Iran
It does not seem like the meeting between Trump and Xi went exactly as Trump had hoped when it comes to Iran.
The most important goal of the war, if I had been in charge, would have been to overthrow the regime. In the long run, they would have solved all other problems. There have been somewhat mixed messages from the US, where it initially seemed like they also wanted to see that happen, but later they have denied that it was one of the goals.
However, it has been stated several times that the most important thing is to deprive Iran of the ability to develop nuclear weapons and that they also must get the uranium back home. Trump even talked about an operation where they would go in and retrieve it.
Now suddenly not even the uranium is so important anymore?
To me, it sounds like Trump now intends to try to withdraw from the war without having achieved any of the goals and therefore pretends that they were not so important.
“Donald Trump hinted on Friday that he no longer thinks it is important to remove the enriched uranium from Iran, Reuters writes.
– I don’t think it’s necessary except from a PR perspective, the president says.
– It would just feel better if I got it, actually.
The question of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has been a stumbling block during the peace negotiations. Donald Trump has several times claimed that they will retrieve Iran’s uranium stockpile and bring it to the US. In recent days, the tone seems to have shifted, and Trump has several times claimed that the US has the uranium under surveillance inside Iran and will ‘blow up anyone who approaches.'”
https://omni.se/trump-antyder-att-anrikat-uran-kan-fa-bli-kvar-i-iran/a/M76BJm
—
If this is true, China is thus escalating its support for Iran and that could be the explanation for the above. Iran with full support from China will make it even harder for the US to defeat Iran and possibly they also risk a conflict with China.
“American intelligence sources claim that China is considering secretly sending weapons to Iran, the New York Times writes.
According to the newspaper’s sources, intelligence services have found evidence of talks between Iran and China. The two countries are also said to have made plans to send the weapons via other countries to hide their origin.
Whether any arms deals have actually been made is unclear. Previous intelligence reports have claimed that China has, among other things, offered Iran access to data from spy satellites during the war against the US and Israel.”
https://omni.se/kallor-kina-overvager-hemlig-vapenleverans-till-iran/a/8p5o8r
But China seems to be playing on both sides:
“Trump says Xi on same page about Iran nuclear weapon
Trump has said he and Xi discussed Iran in recent talks, adding that both leaders want the Strait of Hormuz to remain open and oppose Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“We’ve settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn’t have been able to solve,” Trump said, according to Reuters.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/15/iran-war-live-trumps-visit-to-china-shadowed-by-conflict-with-tehran
From what I have read, this is the first time China has actually spoken out against Iran keeping its nuclear fuel.
As for what is true and what is just for show is a completely different matter 😁
What was said one day is denied the next. One moment the USA has won and the war is over, the strait is open but closed. Iran is about to sign the peace agreement, or wait, Iran has submitted its own proposal but it is rejected.
Since Trump is only allowed to conduct war for 60 days, the war was over and by the way it was no longer a war, but since it ended it is apparently a war again (is it a new war).
No one even knows anymore what the goal of the war is.
Yes, that whole war feels like one big disinformation campaign
On the other hand, a disinformation campaign obviously requires that it is done deliberately and that there is a plan. Here one rather gets the feeling that everything depends on Trump’s mood and impulse at the moment.
Agree, interesting if China now also does not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons (or is open about it).
“The main goal of the war, if I had been allowed to decide, would have been to overthrow the regime. In the long term, they would have solved all other problems. There have been somewhat different messages from the USA, where it initially seemed that they also wanted to see this happen, but later they denied that it was one of the goals.”
It seems that plan A, the Kurds messed up.
Otherwise, the lesson one can assume, from Iraq, Libya, is that a vacuum creates chaos that becomes difficult to manage, but that dismantling/disarming a regime while letting it remain can avoid a vacuum and chaos with civil war, while alternative forces can grow strong and thereby lead to regime change in a “more peaceful” way. Even though some tough decisions will certainly be necessary.
We can look at both Nazi Germany’s and then East Germany’s fall. In both cases, the new administrations were staffed with officials from the previous regime. It was mainly the leaders and those with influence and power who were hanged (Nuremberg).
Trump/USA takes it further (Iran, Venezuela), and it is only the very top layer that they go after, to then project a threat against the remaining regime.
In essence, all societal functions that are common to all functioning societies remain intact, e.g. police, healthcare, schools, etc. One can concentrate on “politics,” as in any democratic country. Certainly, a lot of reform work is probably needed in the mentioned distortions of societal functions, but still. Much is still common. The same emergency number, the same emergency center but maybe new chiefs, who do not deprioritize alarms about injured demonstrators..
The question is whether China can be expected to intervene and support Iran? The military capacity China provided Iran was neutralized at the beginning of the war to China’s humiliation. Do they want to 1) risk this again and 2) definitely get the USA on the “wrong” side (from a Chinese perspective) in the Taiwan issue, even before attacking the country?
Keeping my fingers crossed, of course, that the regime falls even if it doesn’t happen now. Then pretty much all regimes fall sooner or later.
The US hasn’t been very successful with its wars otherwise.
South Korea is probably the only really successful example, even if they didn’t manage all of Korea. South Koreans are probably grateful when they look at how things have gone for North Korea.
Panama has also done well, but there the US intervention didn’t have such a big impact. Legally it has been questioned and many civilians were killed, and the US probably got involved mostly to protect its interests, not out of concern for the population (in the same way as in Venezuela where, admittedly, no war started).
—
I don’t think China will actively go to war on Iran’s side. They have basically stayed out of the Ukraine war as well, but they can probably provide more material.
But the question is whether it’s just rumors, maybe even planted by China as a warning to the US.
There isn’t really much evidence about their equipment proving to be useless. Many write about it but no pictures or videos support it, and it’s also uncertain whether Iran really had that much Chinese equipment from the start.
Iran previously had a lot of Chinese equipment but shifted to building their own. That planes from China arrived in Iran doesn’t say much. It could have been about something completely different, or about ammunition.
But if they did deliver advanced weapons systems, it still comes down to the fact that Iran would hardly have time to learn to operate them in a few weeks, and I doubt that China at this point sent Chinese soldiers there to handle it. That’s not really China’s usual approach.
Iran’s defense does not seem to have succeeded particularly well, at least not as far as we know. China may have supplied Iran with some weapons, but hardly from the top shelf, and the air defense seems to have been Russian.
China certainly has a strong interest in keeping the strait open, as they buy almost all the oil that Iran can produce. From the Middle East, they import about 20% of all their imported oil, but not all of it goes through Hormuz.
It is indeed the case that the US has leverage over China through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Taiwan. China wants an open Hormuz, and China wants the US to promise not to interfere in the Taiwan conflict.
The US can demand help from China in Iran in exchange for opening Hormuz. The US can demand good deals regarding rare earth metals and that China builds factories in the US in exchange for the US reducing tariffs, etc.
It feels a bit like the US might have quite good cards in hand now that they control Hormuz.
China also just bought 200 Boeing planes; they have bought lots of Airbus planes before, so now Europe is at a loss.
According to the newspaper’s sources, the intelligence service has found evidence of conversations between Iran and China.
Hard work that with intelligence… Iran’s foreign minister was visiting China… but maybe they have gathered evidence that he actually talked to someone and didn’t just buy take-away?
😂 Good point!
Kyiv resident Andriy was forced to flee his home during Thursday’s attacks on the Ukrainian capital, reports AFP, who meets him outside a collapsed residential building wearing a bloody nightshirt.
“Everything was burning. People were screaming … people were shouting.”
According to CBS News, two days of intense attacks on Kyiv have caused extensive damage. At least 23 people have been killed and twice as many injured.
Thank you for today’s post!
I agree with most of it, we need to do much more for Ukraine but also when it comes to our rearmament and presence closer to the Russian border. I still don’t believe the risk is that great for the Baltics, but one must prepare for the worst.
By the way, have we seen if Russia is preparing a new large exercise with Belarus?
Will there be a ZAPAD 2026?
Well, my point is – if you want peace, you prepare for war
Agree with the point 100%!
💯
😢😡
** Update: The number of victims in Kyiv after yesterday’s terrorist attack by Russia has risen to 21, including three children. **
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mluejfcyqk2h
Thank you for the post Johan no 1. Thanks also to 205 and MXT for all the info.👍👍👍
Whether Trump wants it or not, it seems Xi has taken over the baton from Trump. It is China that is on its way to becoming the great power in the world. Taiwan will become a
Chinese domestic problem, which it actually is. If Xi can then talk seriously with Putin and get the Russians to go home, then the matter is clear. China will have all of Europe with it on the journey. China helps Trump to end the war in Iran so he doesn’t lose face in front of the MAGA audience, and then it will be as I have believed all along: the USA will pack up, go home, and leave the mine clearance of the strait in Europe’s lap.
Can probably stop with that..
China has the rare earth card and the production capacity card.
The USA has the Hormuz card and the Taiwan support card.
Both have a somewhat unstable economy, the USA still has the world currency.
Exciting to see how this tug of war will go. However, we must try to keep a reasonable distance from both to reduce the impact when one of them falls, or both. Unfortunately, we have become dependent on both.
Hello Johan.
I have a couple of reflections regarding your thoughts about a possible Russian attack on the Baltics.
The Russian navy is something that the NATO countries around the Baltic Sea, with Sweden at the forefront, can relatively quickly and easily neutralize, so that it is not the Russian ships bobbing around in international waters that survive, but rather the survivors from their crews. This is something that has been prepared for and practiced since the days of the Cold War.
So the Russians have to calculate exchanging their Baltic Sea fleet and their military infrastructure in the Königsberg exclave for unlawfully renting a few square kilometers of land in the Baltics for a few weeks before they are brusquely evicted.
This cannot be seen as a Russian victory or as NATO being a powerless discussion club, since it is enough for some of its member states to act forcefully enough for the Russian projection of power to fade and backfire. As mentioned, it only takes a few states choosing to strike back for the Russian tactic to become counterproductive and instead act unifying for its intended victims. As you say, the USA and a handful of other member countries “sitting on their hands” matters less if enough choose to act. Sure, the NATO we know today would cease to exist, but the new constellation would have risen like a Phoenix from the ashes in lightning speed and this would once again have put the Russians in a new precarious situation both in the short and long term.
Also factored in is the fact that all sea traffic to and from Russian ports would be permanently stopped since not even a Russian dinghy, let alone a tanker or other vessel, would be able to pass the Sound and the Belts if they could even get there.
Regarding the NATO member states that currently “lack” a government, it is usually the case that the sitting government continues in the function of a caretaker government that has the authority to make the decisions the situation requires for the country to function internally as well as in relation to other countries and organizations the country is connected to.
I am convinced and fairly certain that states such as Denmark and Latvia, with or without a “regular” government, would have acted very quickly if a kinetic attack from the Russian side against another member country had occurred.
In Sweden, it also works so that the Armed Forces have ROE to act on, so if Russian forces in any way threaten or attack Swedish territory or a Swedish troop, etc., it is up to the individual commander to decide how he or she should act, and I am fairly convinced, considering the current situation, that they would not have let themselves be bullied and “rested on their laurels,” so to speak.
You seem to know NATO. Ukraine is likely to become part of a NATO that rises in the event of an American withdrawal (a tangible threat if you listen to Trump, who, however, does not always follow through on his threats). And overall, not such a big difference downward since Ukraine, with its effective and modern combat-experienced army, compensates for the US’s superiority in other troop types. Then I don’t think the US will treat a NATO country with the same cool interest as the non-NATO country Ukraine. Apparently, the US interrupted the deployment/move of American troops from Germany to Poland. Maybe they will be sent to the Baltics instead?
A resolute message about brigades to the Baltics, now! Well-founded and unequivocal. What do we have to lose? Nothing. We have everything to lose if we don’t do so.
Yes exactly, I have been reasoning about this since last autumn but it is difficult to come to any other conclusion.
The downside is enormous.
** Taiwan is not only being targeted by Chinese disinformation operations, but also by Russia, says Chris Liu, Vice President of Radio Taiwan International, at the Lviv Media Forum. That is why Taiwan also understands Ukraine. **
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3mluuv4njy72q
It will probably be a soft reunion in the end of this
Maybe, but it is probably preferable to full-scale war, yet just like with Ukraine, I think it is up to Taiwan to decide. If they do not want to give up their freedom without a fight, they will at least have my support.
Now the legal aspect is of course more complicated than in Ukraine.
🫂
** 🇺🇦Ours are home!🇺🇦 95% of the Defenders returning today have been in Russian captivity since 2022. Some of them are Defenders of Mariupol.**
🇺🇦Ours are home!🇺🇦 95% of the Defenders returning today have been in Russian captivity since 2022. Some of them are Defenders of Mariupol.
**The first stage of the “1000 for 1000” exchange took place today, with 205 Ukrainians freed from Russian captivity Nearly all of those released today had spent around four years in captivity. The length of time spent in captivity is reportedly the key principle behind the formation of the exchange**
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mluuf4ju7c2j
But wasn’t it Trump who said that an exchange would take place thanks to his fantastic talks with Putin and as part of the ceasefire over May 9?
Of course, it’s incredibly good that Ukrainian soldiers get to come home again, more of that please.
However, here it says that it is the UAE, Russia, and Ukraine who have negotiated:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-new-prisoners-swap-uae-mediation?_refresh=true
It’s starting to get generally confusing to know what is true or not.
Yes, it always feels so good to see Ukrainian prisoners come home. Especially when you have seen the condition some of them have been in.
I suspect that Russia has realized that it doesn’t look so good to send home undernourished and abused prisoners; I think those who have been allowed to come home recently have not looked as physically worn out.
It would be interesting to hear if they have been put on some kind of feeding diet, especially considering that they are to be exchanged soon. I can’t imagine that the Russians have generally improved conditions in their concentration camps.
**🇩🇪🇺🇦 According to Shtilerman, Germany already purchases FP-1 and FP-2 drones for Ukraine. Berlin is also studying the possible use of the Flamingo missile as an alternative to American Tomahawk missiles.**
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mluu5bpdl22g
https://theukrainianreview.info/germany-studies-ukrainian-fire-point-missiles-as-a-tomahawk-alternative/
**”Black rain” has hit Ryazan after an attack by Ukrainian drones, local residents report. City residents are complaining en masse about sticky black spots on cars, windows, and building facades.**
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mluu3j6omk2g
Appropriate biblical punishment
Increasing in intensity in both localized (Russian assaults/attacks) and unlocalized combat engagements. Ratio the same between unlocalized and localized, high 0.88. Almost as many of each type.
N Slobozhansky 7↗️
S Slobozhansky 14💥↘️
Kupyansk 4↗️
Lyman 8
Slovyansk 2
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 28💥💥↗️
Pokrovsk 39💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 3
Huliaipole 25💥💥↘️
Orikhivsk 3
Prydniprovskij 3
Localized 137↗️
Unlocalized 120↗️
Total 257↗️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.88
#
#
#
#
👍
Now we are starting to approach a shift, next week should be enough.
Since RU attacks have started to increase again then, it is not due to decreased offensive operations.
**Over 30 Russians reportedly wounded in a major explosion in Kaspiysk that lasted several hours. Ships were likely hit, Exilenova+ reports. Awaiting confirmation.**
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mlv4gxo2fs2m
New withdrawal – an artillery battalion from the USA that was heading to Poland has been stopped
Will get back with an answer in a few hours fedtmule 😀
The staff of a Russian CAA was knocked out, will check where
MXT – Belarus has been training throughout 2026 and Lukashenko is talking about war, so the level has probably already been reached.
The Baltic Fleet has started positioning itself in the Baltic Sea, which is now stated as protection for the shadow fleet.
The RU units available for deployment are too small.
If a high level is chosen, the units at the northern front probably do not need to be trained – road transport to the Pskov area is sufficient.
The warning will probably come when UA announces that RU has withdrawn units.
But yes – RU should meet our exercises?
Maybe the border with Finland?
I will check around what I find, that was a good question 😀
Oh, no, have I poured water on a goose now? A goose made of Wettex? 😂
Putin is on his way to Kima now in May.
Trump has apparently said that he will meet Xi up to 4 times during 2026.
We have to start preparing for the third triumvirate!
Ouch, let’s see who comes out on top, who is the cleverest?, I think it will be Xicar.
Trump will soon have to pay municipal tax in Beijing. 🥢🍜
😂 The first name Donald also brings to mind a duck just like Peking.
The winds of change are now prevailing in world politics. Previously, everyone gathered in Washington. Nowadays, the world’s Greats meet in Beijing. Except for Modi. He is met in Gothenburg.
US also removes staff functions from Europe
https://x.com/halbritz/status/2055060025748390057?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Unexpected – Spain used the COVID fund to pay pensions
https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/2054827594323783854?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It will probably have to be a post about Lynx and fedtmule thoughts on my two posts 😀
If you dive deep, it’s easy to see that we have come quite far on the way to some kind of conflict and that everyone is preparing.
Saw that JEF has started driving themselves by the way, someone suggested that a few years ago 🧐
Now that Swedish defense Twitter calls it Russian disinformation – here is the truth in 2026 about how we manage in a drone-saturated combat environment
Drone operators from the Azov Corps brigades “Bureviy” and “Liubart” shared details of their participation in the NATO Aurora 2026 exercises in Sweden, where Ukrainian crews took part as the opposing force (OPFOR) for NATO participants of the wargames.
1) During a mechanized assault scenario, Ukrainian crews together with Sweden UAV Center pilots “destroyed” 28 out of 32 vehicles.
2) In another scenario, Ukrainian drone crews and the Sweden UAV Center breached the defenses of a military airfield in less than 20 minutes without losing a single drone and struck all designated targets.
3) The effectiveness of FPV and reconnaissance drones became so unpredictable and disruptive that organizers had to limit their participation in certain stages of the exercises, as other units could not complete scenarios without suffering total “losses” from drone strikes.
4) Experts of the Azov Corps also shared battlefield experience with military personnel from Sweden, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, focusing on UAV warfare, unit coordination, and operations under heavy electronic warfare conditions
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2055065389957071228?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
“Marco Rubio aboard Air Force One on the way to China, where definitely other topics take precedence over the war in Ukraine, in the following way:
“The Ukrainians have developed new tactics, techniques, equipment, and technology that represent a kind of hybrid asymmetric warfare. It is impressive. The Russians are losing five times as many soldiers per month. The Ukrainian armed forces are currently the strongest and most powerful armed forces in all of Europe.”
Rubio seems to quite often have a good grasp.
He probably has more knowledge than most others there, and it shows sometimes when he gets direct questions. He has to try to play dumb so as not to be suspected of being competent. 😀
USA is, like the bank, not our friend. However, the perspective seems to be shifting in the US’s view on Ukraine:
“Am I the only one noticing this, or is the public communication from the entire Trump administration in the USA 🇺🇸 towards Ukraine 🇺🇦 dramatically changing right now?
First, Trump publicly said yesterday that he had told Putin he would not approve Russia’s 🇷🇺 takeover of the entire Donbas.
Then Pete Hegseth, who yesterday during the congressional hearing emphasized that the Pentagon is permanently sending personnel to Ukraine to learn from them.
Then his deputy, Army Secretary Driscoll, who has just returned from Kyiv, and who in the most positive terms praised the AFU 🇺🇦 and their new technologies, even describing the 🇺🇦 DELTA system as far better than the American 🇺🇸 system publicly before the US Congress. Not to mention all the public praises of the AFU 🇺🇦 from all American generals.
And now Marco Rubio also speaks onboard Air Force One on the way to China 🇨🇳, where definitely other topics take precedence over the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦, in the following way:
“Ukrainians 🇺🇦 have developed new tactics, techniques, equipment, and technology for a kind of hybrid asymmetric warfare. It is impressive. The Russians 🇷🇺 are losing five times as many soldiers per month. The Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces are currently the strongest and most powerful fighting forces in all of Europe.”
What is really happening here in the last 24 hours?”
https://x.com/brennpunktua/status/2054960924335706254?s=46
Attentive and interesting. 👍
The White House and the MAGA movement cannot demand that Ukraine train the USA in modern warfare while at the same time thinking that Ukraine should give up Donbas and Crimea to Russia. It is not morally acceptable to behave in that way.
“Some damn order must be maintained in a party,” Vpk leader CH Hermansson lectured his own party in 1969. I think it fits here.
Can’t help but agree!
Some think that double-speak is perfectly fine with the excuse that it is for the domestic audience, but then I do not understand what stabbing allies in the back has to do solely with domestic politics.
In the USA, they don’t just have morals, they have double standards.
😄
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mlvj26spp22p
The Russians have posted videos of how they attack UN vehicles in Ukraine. We will see if the toothless tiger roars, or if it has been tamed enough to just lie still in its corner.
No, we have not received any information about that, says probably the ostrich when it sticks its head in the sand.
https://www.threads.com/@antonioguterres/post/DYXsV9wEXQ6?xmt=AQG0KXe5QBwzDr846EmYyyqQgx8xJ1Rn6rgmXw6QtlcDRNclDHZlZ-F5GmW3QvdSisUG7Uly&slof=1
But without mentioning the perpetrators. Very, very weak.
Lately, we haven’t quite managed to capture the true Friday Drunk™ atmosphere, but at least we avoid Russian “partypoopers.”
“Katja from Arkhangelsk was just about to blow out the candles on her 30th birthday cake when masked men, accompanied by police officers, stormed the nightclub where the party was held. This was reported by the BBC. The men belonged to the far-right group Russian Society (Russkaja Obsjina), staunch supporters of Putin’s ideology to crush Western liberalism and uphold traditional values. – They called us gays and lesbians. I heard violence in every corner, says Katja. The Russian Society writes on social media that they were there to look for illegal ‘LGBTQ propaganda.’ None was found, but Katja – a well-known organizer of subcultural parties in Arkhangelsk – was still interrogated by the police. Nine months later, she was sentenced to community service for blasphemy because she had a neon lamp shaped like a cross in the nightclub. The Russian Society is today Russia’s largest far-right group and has significantly escalated its raids and attacks over the past two years, according to the BBC’s investigation.”
https://omni.se/a/e7ao2R
Off topic from SVD.
Dmitrij Senin was a loyal FSB employee, but after raising the alarm about a huge corruption case, he was forced into a spectacular escape. A plan that required composure, a gas mask, a rubber suit – and a dead cow.
Dmitrij Senin had worked for 18 years within the Russian security service FSB, decorated for his efforts and granted Russia’s highest security clearance. But in 2016, a tip landed on his desk. He did not understand the significance then – but the tip would change his life forever.
It concerned a luxury apartment in Moscow connected to Dmitrij Zachartjenko, a high-ranking police officer in the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ unit against economic crime and corruption. When the apartment was searched, more than 120 million dollars in cash was found.
Zachartjenko denied the crime and claimed the money was not his. He was later sentenced to 13 years in prison.
Does not want to be called a defector
The story of Dmitrij Senin is recounted in a new interview with the British newspaper The Telegraph. Parts of his information are supported according to the newspaper by court documents and investigations from European security services. But much is based on Senin’s own accounts.
The interview takes place at a secret location in a European country. According to The Telegraph, this is because Senin still fears that Russian agents are looking for him.
Although he has left Russia twice, Dmitrij Senin does not want to call himself a defector. Instead, he sees himself as a loyal FSB employee who tried to fight corruption from within the system – and who was punished when he got too close to powerful interests.
– I left because I understood that the system I had served did not work in the interest of the state, but in the interest of specific people in power.
Pointed out as an agent in the media
Shortly after the raid on the luxury apartment, senior officials began asking him where the tip had come from. Then Senin himself was pointed out in Russian media as an FSB officer, with alleged connections to Zachartjenko.
For Senin, it was a warning sign. That someone leaked the identity of a security officer was not something just anyone could do. It indicated that he had angered someone high up in the system.
In February 2017, Senin received the next warning. Within a few hours, his own colleagues would arrest him. He understood that he would end up in prison if he stayed. Therefore, he left Moscow immediately, without even taking his wife and three children with him, and headed south, towards the border with Georgia.
When Senin had entered Georgia, the FSB struck his home in Moscow. Only then, he says, did he find out what he was accused of: having been part of a corrupt network together with Zachartjenko. In 2023, he was sentenced in absentia to nine years in prison; Senin denies the accusations.
Sneaked back into Russia
To shake off his pursuers, Senin took an unexpected approach – he returned to Russia where he lived in hiding for several years. Senin says he used disguises, avoided cameras, and received help from his contacts within both Russia and the FSB. But the details of how he managed daily life – without leaving digital traces – are unclear.
But Senin realized that he could not clear his name from within Russia and decided to leave the country again. This time the escape was much more difficult. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, border control had been tightened. Thermal cameras had been installed at the border with Kazakhstan.
It was then that Senin came up with a plan that required composure, a gas mask, a rubber suit – and a dead cow.
According to Senin, it is not uncommon for Russian farmers to transport dead animals to the other side of the border and dump them in no-man’s land between Russia and Kazakhstan.
Lied hidden in a cow carcass
In September, it was time to activate the escape. To avoid flies and larvae, they chose a really cold day when Senin, dressed in the gas mask and rubber suit, crawled into the cow carcass.
Local smugglers helped him transport the carcass across the border on a tractor and dump it in a ravine. There he later lay inside the carcass for an hour before crawling across the field to a designated pickup point. There, a retired Kazakh KGB officer on a motorcycle was waiting to help him finally reach Montenegro.
There he applied for asylum due to political persecution in Russia. But instead, he was arrested as Russia had requested his extradition via Interpol.
In prison, he was able to meet his family, who had fled to Montenegro in 2021.
After five months in prison, he received the news that Montenegro rejected Russia’s extradition request. But he was not free from Russia’s reach.
Wanted by Monaco
Senin has received two warnings from European security services that his life was in danger. A tracking device linked to the Russian military was reportedly found on his wife’s car, and information from his passport has been published in the press in Montenegro.
On another occasion, rumors circulated in the Russian press that Senin had been killed in a clash between criminal gangs in Montenegro.
– It was also designed to provoke me to break cover and reveal where I was.
There has also been a second request to arrest Senin. This time from Monaco, but according to Senin, probably at the initiative of a Russian intelligence asset in the small principality.
– What is used against me is a classic multi-layered operation. First technical surveillance: GPS trackers, searches in Interpol’s police databases in Monaco via agent networks, publication of my personal information in European media.
According to Senin, all this is an example of the tactics Russia uses to hunt enemies in Europe.
– Russia uses Europe as an operational area, while Europe is still just learning how to respond to this.
Despite living on the run, Senin dreams of someday being able to return to Russia.
– Changes will happen. Putin is not eternal, he will disappear.
https://www.svd.se/a/Wv62gK/rysk-agent-flydde-i-dod-ko-jagades-av-putins-styrkor
Good story!
👍
Interesting. At the same time, it feels a bit more than legally naive to believe that he could fight corruption at the highest level within the Russian system. But it could also be a polishing of the truth; he may have belonged to a losing faction, where the factions have tried to climb upwards at the expense of the others.
“Donald Trump is losing patience with Iran, he told reporters on Air Force One on the way home from China, according to Reuters. The visit to Beijing did not result in any visible successes regarding the war and the Strait of Hormuz. When asked if Xi Jinping made any promises to put pressure on Iran, Trump replied: – I am not asking for any favors, because when you ask for favors, you have to do something in return. According to Trump, Xi offered diplomatic help to end the Iran war, but excluded military assistance. The Chinese president has not commented on the talks with Trump about Iran, but China’s foreign ministry has issued a terse statement about the war: “This conflict, which should never have started, has no reason to continue.””
205 – add your post some statement in China from both that RU is not getting land in Ukraine.
Have not been able to verify if it was said so did not post
👍 checking, focused on Rubio.
Trump denies understanding with Putin that Russia gets all of Donbas
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-end-of-russias-war-against-ukraine-is-very-close/
Unclear what you meant by the wettex cloth mxt?
Keir Starmer seems to be making a blunder right now?
Hello. We
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/docstrangelove2/status/2055385468829642886?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w