Operation Rostov, 12 May 2026

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The ceasefire over May 9 is unfortunately a bit worse than I feared.

Since Putin, just like last year, dangled negotiations with the USA this week and leaked that they are working on a serious proposal to the extent that the EU started forming some negotiation group in pure eagerness, and then topped it off with 1,000 in a prisoner exchange, the EU remained completely silent and the USA asked Ukraine to hold back.

Just like last year, Zelensky is upset but there was a ceasefire. He has a decentralized defense force but it’s nice to see that all drone capabilities kept their fingers on the trigger – actually good control.

On the evening of May 9, after the parade had taken place completely peacefully, Putin gave a speech where he directly said that Ukraine will not get any thousand prisoners “because they are not ready.”

UA expects a massive missile attack this week as they see the preparations and it would be very Russian to do exactly that – then Trump stays silent and the EU screams “cheating” again, at least I think that record is starting to get a bit scratched.

Now it’s nothing more than Zelensky needing to counteract the disappointment and the medicine for that is lots of drones but unfortunately Putin also managed to get a general ceasefire from May 9 – 11 that Ukraine is following.

Behind the Southern front where I described the situation in the area with too few RU units and that Ukraine has fire control over the roads from Berdyansk, RU has now taken the opportunity to run huge vehicle convoys since May 9.

From the east towards Tokmak, Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk. Then up from Crimea eastwards and northwards. He took the chance to bring in the units and supplies he thought were missing in the area since he got Trump to persuade Ukraine to a ceasefire.

We will see in a while what he brought into the area, it’s certainly not good.

The Azov thrust just got harder – that is the consequence of this ceasefire and why I have been sulking for a couple of days. Every year the same thing, Ukraine wants and can but we stop them with the result that the war is prolonged.

Ukraine is starting to wrest the initiative and Vitaly on Twitter has just aired that he believes the RU offensive will be cut short because they have problems recruiting personnel. That is fatal because in the overall situation RU should be drained through their own offensive first.

Then RU has drone capability and can reinforce them as well, and anti-drone weapons are about half a year away just like for Europe, or RU will have them before us.

To play for team Putin in such a sensitive situation and let him cheat his way to an advantage again was bad, Europe could at least have said with one voice “yes, don’t drone the parade but drone everything else, it’s still war” – but we didn’t. Zelensky tried that, the result we see now – they were forced into several days of silence.

Beyond the ceasefire and that we have cheated again so Putin doesn’t burn himself too much.

Now I intend to head off a bit – the Azov thrust is well grounded in facts and really not speculative at all and it is my conviction that maybe three brigades would be enough, or maybe an army corps like Azov will be moved there?

You could start and then quickly move the armored fist at the right moment to surprise?

Already last Friday I saw that Azov is flying long-range FPV drones all the way to Mariupol hunting individual vehicles – when a brigade is on the move towards Dnipro and spotted on the highway near Berdyansk it can get really lively for the Russian bastards when they realize it’s 2026.

The unit maps are sufficiently accurate and so are UA’s successes in recent months.

What we hardly hear at all are all the praises over the UA offensive because they are completely silent now – they have done that before when there are avalanche-sized things in the making.

For a while all info came from Russian milbloggers but now the OSINT analysts we trust have started doing their own analyses and not just reposting Russian maps.

Something you have started to see is that UA is putting resources into trying to take out FSB headquarters and bases – the blast in Grozny the other day was at least one of the targets an FSB office?

They have also fought some CAA headquarters which probably leads to chaos.

Then the constant grinding on LV, radar and platforms behind the southern front, Crimea and in the Rostov area.

Armenia, Azerbaijan and eventually Georgia will all choose the West, that is clear.

Kazakhstan, I believe, is also heading towards us.

That does not happen by a natural law – Zelensky has massaged them seriously and also promises to eliminate the threat Russia that they are terrified of.

One of the presidents was with Putin about half a year ago and openly mocked him – you don’t do that when you are afraid of the FSB.

Since UA has its ATESH all over Russia working with the liberation fronts, the level of sabotage and eliminated targets will only rise the weaker Russia becomes and they are guaranteed to be in contact with the republics that would want autonomy/independence if they could.

Transnistria/Moldova is already under EU and UA protection – just a matter of time.

We stick to the Southern front to build further on the Azov thrust, what we don’t know at all today is what secret plans Ukraine has. We know they intend to retake all terrain within their country’s borders – you have heard Zelensky and especially Budanov say that several times in recent months.

You hear zero about ceasefires or anything (before it now came from Putin unfortunately).

Side note – sometime this summer/autumn Russia will seriously request a ceasefire and some half-reasonable plan. The USA with Trump at the forefront will immediately demand it and threaten with everything.

Probably it goes hand in hand with the financial crisis washing over us.

There is the big crossroads for Europe – do we do as during the Cold War, conform and bow or do we fully support Ukraine?

Part of the plan is to stop the fighting in Ukraine which is bleeding Russia dry to be able to increase the threat against us – that’s what our Supreme Commander says anyway, he has probably read the thread about an opened conflict front against us I think and then shamelessly stole it. He could at least have sent MXT a few bucks as thanks for the help. He can steal the posts, I won’t try to sue him for intellectual property theft (yet).

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ob-varnar-ryssland-kan-testa-nato-inom-kort

A ceasefire is thus fatal for Europe but good for the USA who then become important for us, again.

Ceasefires have many downsides – all soldiers who have been held together by a common enemy will suddenly stand without a uniting force and Russia will on the day break and split UA from within as much as they can. You have read this many times already and know what the result will be.

RU will immediately reinforce the defense so that restarting hostilities becomes significantly more difficult.

Then to directly attack Europe, brigades at the northern front could probably be ready for deployment against the Baltics within a week?

The battle plan already exists and unit commanders have probably done their preliminary work, one might guess, that “RU has not built up capability against the Baltics” is the dumbest analysis of this war from idiots who have already shown zero analytical ability since there are already 3 CAA + 3 divisions at the northern front today that within a week could have moved to UFA towards the Baltics.

This is in addition to their strategic offensive reserve.

So in about a year we have gone from “2031” to “3-4 years” to “in the near term” – they should have read the thread I say, and the German Breuer/Bauer is starting to be suspected of being paid for disinformation.

I have long felt that RU has too many units there since they don’t seem to want to attack much – these units have also had it relatively quiet for quite some time now and can be resourced easily from Russia.

Now this was not what we were going to discuss today but “Operation Rostov”.

Ukraine has already attacked into Russia up at the northern front, Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts if you remember – completely undefended of course because Putin hadn’t heard anything about an offensive from the USA, since UA kept quiet. They got endless shit for that from the USA who were angry that they didn’t have time to leak the battle plan to Putin.

Chaos, panic but when areas were to be negotiated in 2026 Trump refused to mention Kursk with a single word.

Then 2-3 days before Putin was to meet the negotiators in Moscow, and he had already said earlier that there would be no discussions before UA was out of Belgorod/Kursk, UA left the area with a poor excuse that was easy to see through.

Trump cheated his way to a win for Putin who immediately went there in uniform and beamed like a child on Christmas because half a year of grinding with his best brigades had yielded exactly zero.

Putin is not taking chances again – the northern front is well staffed today.

Other focal points this year are Slovyansk – Kramatorsk and down in the Donetsk area.

We went through the southern front in the Azov thrust the other day but I want to remind about Vodkarun with Wagner a few happy days in summer 2023 when it turned out that RU had zero units in depth just like up in Belgorod and Kursk.

The Azov thrust will quite quickly isolate Crimea which is simply cut off and then the peninsula is exposed from the sea sides where all evacuation attempts become too costly. Besides that, the Kerch bridge is impassable and a Flamingo away from sinking, and the last heavy ferry was recently made unusable.

Since the front has then moved, UA can reach Crimea even with JDAMS and probably ground attack.

Behind the southern front UA is now somewhere after crossing the Dnieper, maybe they got all the way to Melitopol and threaten the area eastward on the flank?

Melitopol itself has a north-south defensive line and now maybe Putin has gotten units there under ceasefire but earlier it was sparsely populated.

All RU units up at the southern front now have an acute threat on the flank where all access roads conveniently lie within UA drone umbrella, and UA has all opportunities to keep pressure up both from the west and north.

Crimea is impossible to defend – within a few months it will fall somewhat depending on priority – what has then happened?

Ukraine suddenly threatens Russia again in an area that has no direct defense at all.

The units on Crimea can move forward as far east as at the level of Berdyansk (down on Crimea) without being threatened, and the amphibious capability UA now has can suddenly be used against RU again – namely the Krasnodar area.

Their frontline drone umbrella extends 100km eastward from that point and through sea drones they can reach as far as the eastern part of the Sea of Azov (Taganrog) to launch their LV, drones or missiles.

If you want to land at Taman it is excellent defensive terrain again, you reach Novorossiysk with all kinds of weapons which is the port RU has hidden the rest of the Black Sea Fleet in.

If RU starts pulling units from the fronts all the way down to Taman those brigades disappear from the fronts, but how do you do that?

Probably by train which ATESH is just waiting for, there are some nice railway crossings we checked already in 2023 I think – north-south railway tracks are not many and major roads neither.

The same applies here – to reach the area a large logistical transport is required which all lies within UA drone range now.

If you really want to mess things up you get Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia on board with an incursion from the south while you yourself attack in the Rostov-na-Don, Volgograd, Astrakhan area.

Voila – the three countries that helped did so to never again have a land border with Russia and enjoy UA border protection forever.

Logistically challenging – sure.

For RU, impossible to use their indirect capabilities against fast-moving units that spread like a fan in the broader area and land at all possible places.

Impossible?

No, not at all, the three states have decent defense forces, the Black Sea Fleet is basically passive and UA screens indirect capabilities and LV so strongly that it would make it difficult for the Russian air force to fly missions in the area because they will never know where a patrol with manpads is located.

Probably ATESH would already be in depth with fire against airbases at takeoff and landing.

Now that you have come this far and already exclaimed “unreasonable” in front of your computer – who was it that correctly suggested that Russia should be invaded before the Kursk offensive?

But yes, everything is apparently politics nowadays, USA with victory parfyms-Trump at the forefront will do exactly everything to prevent this from happening.

Europe, which at that point probably starts getting guarantees from a rather pressured Putin, will probably also suggest that the best for Ukraine is if they don’t get any ideas, their EU membership could depend on it.

But the advantages would outweigh the disadvantages – RU is denied the Black Sea, UA gains access to the Caspian Sea and reaches Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and especially Kazakhstan.

Future guarantee for the EU that pipelines for oil and LNG go overland through Ukraine into us who are then in the EU.

RU contact with Iran is also cut through the Caspian Sea.

China’s attempts to tie these countries to itself are broken immediately.

A real alpha move from Ukraine that maybe also needs some help from Kazakhstan?

Such an opportunity will never come back and there is definitely a plan for it with Budanov and Zelensky, whether it is politically feasible is probably the big question.

As evidence, it is stated that Wagner made it to Rostov and then all the way beyond Voronezh before the FSB managed to arrest all the commanders’ families and, with threats of torture and murder, convinced them to stop.

It would also directly bring down Georgia, which still has its pro-Russian corrupt dictatorship.

These -stans together can probably deploy 300,000 – 400,000 in well-resourced mechanized units northwards if they want.

Considering that Armenia has joined us and Azerbaijan is now selling LNG to the EU, the idea is not entirely unreasonable. Kazakhstan has quite a bit of trade with us and probably knows which side would suit them best.

China’s “road and belt” initiative would collapse overnight, with all the hundreds of billions of dollars wasted.

The wild card is if the USA teams up with China now during upcoming meetings; if they don’t and China has to keep an eye on the USA, they can’t provide much assistance.

If China wants to take on Kazakhstan – good luck in those mountains.

If Iran simultaneously were to get a Western-friendly government like Pasha, the world order would be completely overturned overnight for Russia, China, and unfortunately also the USA, so they might not fully support this.

We in the EU have already hinted that Armenia and Georgia might be welcome to join us in (the relative) warmth (during summertime).

It would be easier for China instead to go and snatch some area in Russia that is now completely undefended before the opportunity slips out of their hands.

As usual, I am a strong advocate for seizing the opportunity Ukraine has created for us in flight to rid ourselves of a 300-year-old problem – the Russian imperial disease.

It would have been incredibly good to have a Russian conflict zone extending into the Baltics before this started, so we must make sure not to reinforce the Baltics at all this summer.

Even better if there is some kind of front collapse in Ukraine or a palace coup in Russia – then UA can carry out Operation Rostov without losses.

Europe should really see the upside of this and at the same time take the opportunity to bring down Belarus, demilitarize Kaliningrad forever, and Finland could get the area eastwards so we get rid of the threat from Murmansk?

I had a post about where the future border for Finland would go, so they already know that.

If we take the opportunity now and then completely mine the border again while the power struggle is ongoing in Moscow, we will have solved a problem that we in Scandinavia have been plagued by for over three hundred years. If there is anything that has worked well in this war, it is the mines; they lie where they lie, and mine clearance has never been the Russians’ strong suit.

Turkey would at least keep in line permanently after this, only upsides.

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125 thoughts on “Operation Rostov, 12 May 2026”

  1. MXT

    Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-12

    • 1020 KIA 
    • 2 Tanks 
    • 2 AFVs 
    • 72 Artillery systems 
    • 2 MLRS 
    • 1252 UAVs 
    • 2 UGVs 
    • 145 Vehicles and Fuel tanks 
    • 1 Special equipment 

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  3. MXT

    Inte bara jag som misstänker att han inte vill ha fred den här gången heller.

    ** Putin Is Bluffing About Ending the War, Analyst Says
    American analyst Paul Goble says Putin’s claim that the war in Ukraine may be nearing an end is not a real peace signal, but a political tactic. He argues Putin is trying to calm Russians after a slimmed-down Victory Day parade, buy time, confuse Western publics and reduce support for Ukraine. If the war continues, Goble says Putin will blame NATO and claim the West prevented peace. **

    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75907

    1. Lasse W

      Putin is in desperate need of some sort of success and he keeps no promises of any kind. There will be some last attempts from him to bomb UA into submission. Or to take a couple of square kilometers along the front. He is throwing in everything he has. Apres moi le Deluge as some French military man said.

      Then he will activate his escape plan with helicopters alternating with car. Final destination North Korea or China. He trusts his personal guard force who are paid by himself.

  4. MXT

    ** As ceasefire ends, Russian drone strikes residential building in Kyiv

    Russian forces resumed their attacks on Kyiv overnight on May 12, launching dozens of drones towards the capital and hitting a residential building in the city, local officials reported.

    The latest attack on the Ukrainian capital comes just hours after a U.S.-brokered temporary ceasefire reached between Ukraine and Russia expired. **

    https://kyivindependent.com/as-ceasefire-ends-russian-drones-strike-residential-buildings-in-kyiv/

  9. MXT

    ** 🚀 Rheinmetall is launching its own production of cruise missiles together with Destinus, – FT Production is planned to begin in late 2026 or early 2027. The new Ruta Block 2 missile will be able to hit targets at a distance of more than 700 km.

    The sharp expansion of Europe’s own military-industrial complex began against the backdrop of Trump’s shaky policy in terms of EU and NATO defense. Europeans do not want to risk their own security, and the war in Iran has proven that the US arsenals are not bottomless. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mlmzk2cwds27

    1. Lynx

      That is just the beginning. We will see how Europe’s defense industries produce and develop the types of drones that Ukraine successfully uses and how we equip ourselves with these as a complement to the more expensive Taurus and Scalp/SS missiles.

      It will be a significant leverage and have no connection at all to the USA, which is starting to hold increasingly worse cards.

  10. MXT

    Off-Topic, USA och Kriget i Iran

    ** 🇺🇸🇮🇷 According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, about 66% of respondents, including one in three Republicans, said Trump “has not clearly explained the goals of the US military involvement in Iran.”

    Three-quarters of Americans believe the Trump administration bears significant responsibility for gas prices. At the same time, 65% of respondents blame Republicans, while 27% blame Democrats. **
    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mlmz7mkqps27

  11. MXT

    Off-Topic, USA and China

    “Xi Jinping may pressure Donald Trump into a subtle but symbolically important shift in position regarding Taiwan, writes the New York Times.

    The two presidents are expected to meet on Thursday.

    U.S. presidents usually use the formulation that they “do not support Taiwanese independence,” but China now hopes that Donald Trump can be persuaded to say that he “opposes Taiwanese independence.” This according to experts NYT has spoken with.

    – This could then be used by China to claim that the U.S. is taking Beijing’s side, and create increased diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, says parliamentarian Chen Kuan-ting from Taiwan’s ruling party.”
    https://omni.se/xi-kan-pressa-trump-pa-subtil-sprakandring-om-taiwan/a/j0OwqA

  12. MXT

    Off-Topic, Starmer

    “Almost 80 of Labour’s parliamentarians are demanding that their party leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer resign.

    The situation is obviously untenable, writes BBC’s Chris Mason in an analytical text. Either Starmer must meet the demands, or 80 elected officials must be fired.

    The Times’ Steven Swinford writes that it is hardly an easy decision to throw oneself into a leadership battle, but the humiliating losses in the elections in Scotland and Wales may have decided the matter in the eyes of many of Labour’s top officials.

    “For more and more of them, it is clear that there is only one answer – Starmer must go.”
    https://omni.se/analyser-finns-bara-ett-svar-starmer-maste-bort/a/xrM9EQ

    —

    “The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will this morning gather his ministers for a “decisive meeting,” reports Sky News. This comes after several ministers demanded a timetable for his resignation.

    According to the channel’s political commentator Beth Rigby, they have informed Starmer that they believe “the game is over.” However, other ministers have urged Starmer to stay.

    Starmer has faced harsh criticism after last week’s failed local elections, and around 80 members of parliament have openly demanded his resignation. He himself has, however, stubbornly repeated that he has no such plans.”
    https://omni.se/starmer-kallar-regeringen-till-avgorande-mote/a/vr69Kw

  13. MXT

    Off-Topic, Greenland

    “The USA is negotiating with Denmark to open new military bases in Greenland, reports the BBC.

    According to the newspaper’s sources, one of the proposals involves three new bases, all of which would formally be considered American territory.

    Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to take over Greenland by force and offered to buy the country. According to BBC sources, this may have been completely unnecessary.

    – Why threaten an ally with a military operation or invasion when what you want is something quite easy to agree on? says one of them.

    Both Denmark and the USA confirm that diplomatic negotiations are ongoing, without providing any further details.”
    https://omni.se/kallor-usa-forhandlar-om-baser-pa-gronland/a/oEk1y7

  14. MXT

    Off-Topic, Mali

    “The Russian military’s defeat in Mali undermines the entire Russian model for influence on the continent, according to experts CNN has spoken with.

    Last week, Tuareg separatists took over, among other things, the Russian Africa Corps’ stronghold in Kidal in the northern parts of the country.

    – The fall of Kidal and the humiliating filmed retreat have done great damage to Moscow’s reputation and its ambitions for Africa, says Bakary Sambe at the think tank Timbuktu Institute.

    Héni Nsaibia at the conflict monitor ACLED says that Russia has offered security in exchange for natural resources in the jihadist-plagued Sahel region. However, he argues that military efforts have never been sufficient to address the underlying problems in the region.”
    https://omni.se/experter-ryssland-lider-fornedrande-nederlag-i-mali/a/ExJjJ5

  15. Proxima

    Thank you Johan no 1 for a very interesting post. Three thumbs up as usual 👍👍👍
    Everyone who understands this war believes that the Russians intend to test NATO by entering the Baltics. Johan, the Supreme Commander, all of Europe’s top military leaders, NATO with Rutte at the forefront. So, all with high knowledge of the Russians’ “thinking.” The exceptions are Proxima and possibly MXT. But I am very ignorant about most things regarding this war. Depth charge dropper on “Gästrikland” as my greatest military merit, I should perhaps adopt a more modest attitude as an expert. You write towards the end that Finland should reclaim Karelia. Finland has the right to this just as China has the right to reclaim Manchuria. Petsamo, however, never belonged to Finland from the start. But I am not sure that Finland wants this. Vyborg perhaps because of the Saimaa Canal. The Kola Peninsula belongs to the Sami, the Kvens, and the Karelians. There will probably be tough negotiations regarding this strategic peninsula. The point is inhabited, as the name suggests, by a tough people.
    It was Kazakhstan’s Tokayev who annoyed Putin at a meeting between them by avoiding speaking Russian. Instead, he spoke Kazakh to Putin, so an interpreter had to translate.

    1. MXT

      Of course, there is a risk that Russia will test NATO, but I agree with you that the probability is very low.

      If a wolf attacks what it thought was a cat but turned out to fight like a tiger and cannot defeat it, it does not simultaneously attack a pride of lions (even if the biggest lion, the USA, obviously will not step in).

      One can argue that we cannot base our logic on the Russians because they think differently, but they are not stupid.

      Recently, they have rather made sure to avoid having their drones end up in the “wrong” countries. Instead, they focus on disrupting Ukraine’s drones so they fall on the wrong side of the border.

      I don’t think they dare openly provoke Europe anymore. It is Russia that has consistently misjudged Europe and our willingness to help Ukraine.

      —

      Finland was offered to buy back Karelia but declined. Maybe today they are more interested, to have it as a buffer zone against Russia. But I’m not sure if one should open that can of worms, many borders could be questioned in that case. However, if Russia totally collapses and those in Russian Karelia themselves ask Finland to join, it would be a possibility.

      3. Pehr

        Putin and his elite will do what they believe benefits them personally.
        I think it is more likely that they will test Svalbard than, for example, Latvia. That said, one should always prepare for the worst.
        Yeltsin shamelessly offered, when the economy was at its most hopeless after the fall of the Soviet Union, Finland the chance to repurchase the lost territories. The Finns declined as they saw a money pit ahead, now inhabited by Russian speakers. However, the area rightfully belongs to Finland.

    2. Lynx

      I probably belong to the group that also doesn’t believe the barbarians are planning to attack the Baltics… but with a big but… they can absolutely make a serious attempt to split NATO or perhaps rather to deepen the rift that already exists between the USA and Europe.

      The problem for the barbarians is that Europe is already looking towards Ukraine and thinking in terms of a new military post-NATO bloc. The USA, in these contexts, is to be regarded as an ex. We can have somewhat friendly relations, but the deep trust has disappeared and will not return.

      So if the barbarians were smart, they would focus on driving a wedge between European countries and between Europe and Ukraine. Personally, I believe that is what they will focus on the most. But since Hungary slipped out of their grip, the uphill battle has become both longer and steeper.

      1. MXT

        Also convinced that they will continue to do everything they can to split Europe even if it may not happen by entering the Baltics. There, they also have the USA on their side, which gladly supported Hungary. It could be tough for us to resist propaganda and subversive activities from both fronts.

        China is probably doing what they can as well, although they seem to work subtly and mainly when it comes to trade, where they want to make us dependent on them. (Wow, there are so many sites with Chinese junk that try to appear as if they were Swedish, for example).

    3. johan No.1

      Sinking bomb dropper indeed.

      Better than me who was a conscientious objector and only played Rise of Nations 😀

       

      That’s right, that’s how the mockery against Putin went 🤣🤣👍

  16. 205

    A good analysis, Johan. JESS – Johan in his ESSe.

    The damage occurred with troop movements during the May 9 ceasefire. On the other hand, you described during the first summer of the war in 2022 how Russian vehicles shuttled between Tokmak and some other place (Melitopol?) in step with Ukraine moving the targets of its attacks, whereby the vehicles could be engaged when they regrouped. Somewhere the units have been taken this time, and there have been some Ukrainian attacks also in the direction of Donetsk, which thus may have been weakened.

    Good take and plan otherwise.

  17. MXT

    👍👍👍

    Interesting post today and I like how you think.
    I myself am content with a first step; if you succeed with the original Azov strike, then you can take it from there.

    Unfortunately, I believe there is still a long way to go despite Russia being increasingly in decline.

    Of course, things can turn quickly when they do, but I wonder if Russia still needs to be marinated for a few more years.

    I don’t think Ukraine will launch a major offensive until they are really sure they will succeed. They got burned in the summer of 2023 and will not repeat that mistake, and they cannot afford to lose too many soldiers.

    Maybe it will be time in the autumn, but I think it will be next spring/summer.

    By then, hopefully Europe will have caught up enough with its rearmament and can contribute (unfortunately, they probably haven’t mustered the courage to send troops), and Ukraine’s capability will then also have reached its peak with longer range, even more drones, etc.

    Provided that nothing major happens, e.g. politically, before then, of course.

    1. johan No.1

      The USA doesn’t seem to have the time.

      Probably we don’t either.

      That doesn’t stop us from ONCE AGAIN jumping on peace talks that delay.

      We’ll see.

      UA won’t get stronger than this and their drone takeover is NOW.

      That always swings so in a year China may have rotated the takeover back to RU again.

  18. alfaomega

    I agree with Proxima, 205, and MTX on the rating of the post.
    Many thoughts run through my head about where, when, and how Russia will really get its comeuppance and give up. But it will probably be a combination of a severely weakened economy, UA’s military efforts, and some domestic sabotage groups’ activities that will be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. But the sooner, the better from all perspectives. The big question is probably what happens afterward…
    Our Supreme Commander seems to have made a reasonable analysis, which feels reassuring, and Eva Skoog Haslum was also very clear in a recent report.
    Another thing that can be somewhat worrying is the extent of illegalists here in Sweden and what they might cause.

  19. Lynx

    Interesting and 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻.

    I think Ukraine “won” the Russian “Victory Day,” an incredible trolling when they even gave the coordinates for the area Ukraine guaranteed. After this day, we see how the media reports on how weak Russia looks today, pictures of Putin hanging his head, and above all, the image of Ukraine as strong and reliable (in contrast to the barbarians).

    As you wrote, Ukraine now has drone capabilities down to Mariupol, and they can probably shut down the infrastructure if they want. And the barbarians cannot move a shoebox without Ukraine knowing.

    I don’t think it matters much that the barbarians moved in their reinforcements in recent days; Ukraine probably knows where they stand and has a good picture of which resources to strike first before harvesting.

    I don’t really know what the US could do to stop Ukraine either; they now get most of their supplies from Europe, including SIGINT. The US, through its strange foreign policy, has ensured that it is losing influence and is left with increasingly weaker cards. Germany, which we must remember is the world’s 4th-5th largest economy, already produces drones together with Ukrainian companies, etc.

    I see zero interest from Europe in trying to get Ukraine to give up land or for Europe to start trading with the barbarians again—quite the opposite, rather. If anything, Europe is forming to try to include India and applicable parts of Asia in a new trade bloc. They have Canada with them, which is furious at the US and has realized that Europe is a better partner. Ukraine is considered an indispensable part of Europe’s defense, and there is increasing talk about creating a new European defense alliance (where Canada is also welcome). The US has increasingly weaker cards—play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

    So backstabbing Ukraine seems highly unlikely to me, especially as Europe begins to understand that there is a real threat to us in the relatively near future.

    I believe an Azov offensive could become a reality this year. That probably requires the barbarians’ economy and rear areas to start collapsing, but then Ukraine can strike. The quality differences between Ukraine’s units and the barbarians’ will become apparent—the crutch-shooting units have never convinced in mobile warfare. Their VDV may be better trained, but that’s 2026, and Ukraine will have drone cover and global eye plus more modern combat aircraft that can provide air support.

    I think 2026 will be Ukraine’s year.

    3. johan No.1

      Yes, absolutely right – the EU is rapidly building new trade partners and allies 👍👍👍

      We are arming the old – the city right now 💥💥💥

      Absolutely right 

  20. observer

    I am obviously ignorant on the subject, but WHY are the USA/China so afraid that Russia will get beaten? If Russia’s inflated self-image is shattered, and the country is broken up into smaller ethnically independent states, that should be desirable, right? The fact that the Russians can no longer threaten and harass their surroundings is surely something that benefits everyone outside Russia?

    1. Pehr

      I believe that many even in Europe are nervous about the Russian devils’ empire crumbling and resulting in a lot of unstable countries with nuclear weapons. Someone compared it to the Balkans after the former Yugoslavia fell.
      Personally, I think it is a risk worth taking and mitigating in the best possible way.

    2. johan No.1

      The USA is not afraid, they want a strong Russia as a threat to Europe.

      Europe is easily frightened, an absolute truth for a long time.

    3. MXT

      One theory is that the USA does not see Russia as a real enemy but that China is the main adversary. Therefore, they do not want to see Russia fall, as it could lead to China taking the opportunity to take control over the eastern parts. Partly to gain control over the raw materials they themselves lack, but also to gain better access to the Pacific Ocean where they are currently somewhat trapped. 

      From that perspective, China should actually want to see Russia fall to take advantage, but I rather believe that they in turn are afraid that a Russian collapse could lead to parts of present-day Russia instead coming under European influence. Perhaps not directly that Europe occupies land, but city-states and breakaway regions could very well choose to turn to Europe, and then that would lead to China losing influence (and Europe then also gaining better access to raw materials and natural resources).

      Then, as Pehr writes, it could become unpredictable chaos where different factions take control over different parts and possibly gain access to nuclear weapons. 

  22. Proxima

    China, I believe, is just playing the game. If Russia collapses, one can reclaim its domains in Manchuria without a single shot being fired. No one can criticize China for that, and it is done smoothly, which may mean gaining greater understanding for its actions around the world.

    1. Lynx

      Yes, exactly. China is already doing this by systematically buying up struggling Russian companies in the Far East. Pumping in capital and then only needing to promise to take care of infrastructure and housing construction in exchange for China gaining influence as the region is developed moving forward. Without weapons, without fighting, just positive feedback from those who are otherwise used to how Moscow treats them.

  24. johan No.1

    The thread forgets one thing – a RU conflict with us will be under an Article 5 and EU response, right.

    Only when they are already a few miles into the Baltics and threaten with nuclear weapons will we get closer to a response from us THAT MUST BE VOTED THROUGH IN EVERY PARLIAMENT.

    Does the UK seem to have a government soon?

    Does Denmark have a government?

    Do we have elections soon?

    Do you think Spain will send troops?

    Has Poland promised to defend only Lithuania or also Estonia and Latvia?

    Does the same apply to Germany?

    If the USA opposes it – do you think we will bomb Russia or retake the potato fields by force?

    1. Lynx

      When a member country invokes Article 5, NATO leadership must make a formal decision that the article is activated. Then, each country contributes what they can and want to contribute. No parliament is involved in that process. The actual intended content of the aid from different countries is seen in various NATO exercises.

      1. johan No.1

        The wave of sabotage we now have in Europe, is that a possible Article 5 or what?

        Excerpt from Google AI below

        What Can Activate Article 5:
        • Traditional Military Aggression: A direct armed attack or invasion by another state against a NATO member’s territory.
        • Significant Cyber Attacks: Widespread or severe cyberattacks on a member’s infrastructure, when deemed to have the same impact as an armed attack.
        • Hybrid Warfare: Coordinated, unconventional warfare methods (including cyber and “gray-zone” attacks) that reach a certain threshold.
        • Terrorist Attacks: International terrorist attacks, such as the 9/11 attacks on the U.S., can trigger collective defense.
        • Attacks in Space: Attacks to, from, or within space can trigger Article 5.
        • Radiation Releases: An attack causing a radiation leak into a NATO country’s territory from outside (e.g., against nuclear infrastructure) has been cited as a potential trigger.

        NATO Article 5, which dictates that an attack on one member is an attack on all, is activated by a formal decision of the North Atlantic Council following an “armed attack” against one or more members. It is only invoked by unanimous consent of all allies, generally applying to territory, forces, ships, or aircraft located in the North Atlantic area.

        But that is really not the important thing, if NATO manages to agree on Article 5 since Turkey and Slovakia backed down, then the important thing as you write below really is;

        “Then it applies that each country contributes what they can and want to contribute”

        THERE each parliament shall vote on it, right?

        Again excerpted from Google AI

        Yes, according to Swedish constitutional law and the decisions made before membership, it is the Riksdag that decides to send armed troops to assist another NATO country upon activation of Article 5.

        NATO Article 5 is only interesting if it can be practically activated, right?

        Since the USA is out, the UK has a political crisis, we have elections in September and Denmark does not have a government – who do you think will send troops to the Baltics?

        Turkey, Slovakia?

        I actually can’t see that I am wrong at all in what I wrote other than how I formulated it but there will not be a soldier in the Baltics before parliaments and national assemblies have voted for it.

        Especially when it comes to the Baltics and how we position ourselves, then the question will be whether we in NATO are prepared to retake terrain in eastern Baltics with force when RU has mined itself in, dug in, and deployed its drone units – THAT will be the question to take a stand on.

         

         

        1. Lynx

          Never trust AI 😉.

          It is the government, in consultation with the armed forces, that decides which military resources will be sent.

          However, it has been pointed out that if we were to send conscripts abroad in a NATO mission, the parliament would first need to decide on the matter.

          Then cyberattacks, etc., to trigger Article 5 need to cause such great damage that it corresponds to an armed attack, and we are hardly there.

          1. johan No.1

            23 drones into Poland?

            1500 drone overflights over Germany in 2025 (was that right?).

            —

            Now I had to check AI again 😶

            See that this is up for discussion since 2025?

            Doesn’t the government’s mandate have strict limitations?

            —

            Our BaltBat will be sent back to the Baltics just in time for the start of the war and it does have a mandate to fight.

            Macron can surely send the Foreign Legion and various countries probably have SOF they can sneak away.

            Now I am thinking more brigade-sized units and lots of mechanized formations.

            —

            In all previous operations, the parliament has had to vote – if we then run a hypothetical scenario that the Baltics must be retaken, can the government on its own initiative then send the entire first division (had to check…) to Estonia?

            A yes or no to that question will probably be the answer to our discussion?

             

            1. Lynx

              No, Article 5 corresponds to a state of war. The government has control over all forces that are not conscripts when it comes to support for other countries, and if Sweden is involved, of course the entire defense. And as I said, the number of drones does not matter; there must be damage equivalent to an armed attack.

              The Twin Towers is probably the only example so far, so something of that kind and scale maybe.

  25. johan No.1

    Finland and the land to the east are therefore not the main issue that needs to be debated – based on an old post but wild guess is that Finland got burned during the Continuation War?

    It is more a discussion about what SHOULD be done with the whole EU behind it.

  28. johan No.1

    The push the EU is now making for trade and “friendship” with Japan, SK, Taiwan (right?), Brazil, Canada, Australia (right?), India and all the old -stans.

    That is a solid alpha move.

    Who do you think feels acutely threatened by that?

    We have also threatened the USA to dump the national debt, boarded Russia’s shadow fleet, and refused a trade agreement with China.

    Do you think these three will sit still in the boat and wait until we are the empire where the sun never sets?

     

    1. 205

      No, not if it is perceived as a threat. What the USA can do is offer competing deals, which benefits the countries in question. The other option is that China itself or perhaps more likely through its proxy Russia puts its boot down. In the latter case, the outcome of the Russia – Ukraine war is of decisive importance. A defeated Russia is unlikely to put its boot down. And perhaps China will then be satisfied with Manchuria and the Pacific coast, as Proximity has suggested before.

      1. johan No.1

        The USA has probably been trying with -stan for a while and now it seems they are choosing us?

        More and more countries seem to be eyeing the Gripen?

        MENA likes the protection from Ukraine and is tough on the USA.

        Canada completely lost the USA.

        Greenland didn’t work out.

        Japan is selling government debt like crazy.

        From my vantage point, I’m starting to get the feeling that the USA doesn’t like this.

        Yes – Russia is an enormously important puzzle piece and the worst possible scenario for China and the USA is if Russia completely collapses. That would be best for Europe, so we are on a serious collision course here.

        China’s plan B – absolutely 100% 👍👍👍

  29. Pehr

    Off topic but in line with the larger geopolitical situation. From Omni.
    “The M23 guerrilla movement in Congo-Kinshasa wants to start selling critical rare earth minerals to the USA. This is reported by The Economist, which has met with leaders of the movement and seen a draft of the proposal.
    – The minerals are in our region … come, let us talk, says Corneille Nangaa, leader of M23’s political wing.
    An agreement could mean a much-needed influx of money to the rather isolated areas controlled by the guerrilla movement and also strengthen their legitimacy in the eyes of the outside world. According to The Economist, M23 is also concerned that the USA will continue to strengthen ties with the government.”
    https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/05/10/a-congolese-militia-wants-to-sell-critical-minerals-to-donald-trump

    1. johan No.1

      The USA has actually recently done a couple of things in Nigeria against the Islamist guerrillas, so the USA is probably ahead of us in Africa right now.

    1. Proxima

      Otherwise, the signature tune of Rapport is a nice dance song. It’s a pity that it is so short. You don’t have time to ask someone to dance.😐

  34. MXT

    Off-Topic, Iran War

    Jockesoft, you have to thank Israel!

    “Israel has during the Iran War placed parts of its air defense system ”Iron Dome” in the United Arab Emirates. In this way, they have assisted the country in shooting down Iranian missiles. This was stated by the US UN Ambassador Mike Waltz on Monday, reports AP.

    Already in April, Axios reported that ”Iron Dome” had been placed in the United Arab Emirates, but it has only now been officially confirmed. This is the first time the air defense system has been sent to any country other than the USA.”
    https://omni.se/bekraftat-israel-har-lanat-ut-iron-dome/a/16qykJ

  35. MXT

    Off-Topic, USA

    It is fortunate that Trump is doing what is good for the USA, otherwise inflation would surely have been twice as high!

    We barely have 2% inflation, but gasoline prices have probably risen correspondingly here in Sweden as well, although we are not quite as dependent on driving as Americans.

    “Inflation in the USA increased to 3.8 percent year-on-year in April, up from 3.3 percent in March. This is shown by figures from the American statistical agency BLS. An increase of 3.7 percent was expected, according to Trading Economics consensus forecast.

    Core inflation at 2.8 percent was also slightly higher than expected.

    Among other things, gasoline prices rose by 28.4 percent, while the energy category as a whole increased by 17.9 percent year-on-year.”
    https://omni.se/amerikanska-inflationen-stiger/a/0p9bOE

  37. MXT

    “ADAMAKHA unit destroyed BM-21 Grad, 2 tanks, trucks, cars and Russians 💥”
    vhttps://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mlo63oi7qs2y

  42. MXT

    Off-topic, the war in Iran

    “The EU can extend a naval mission currently underway in the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz, says the EU’s foreign chief Kaja Kallas according to AFP.

    She was clear that this could only happen after the war has ended.

    The mission, called Operation Aspides, aims to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea, primarily from attacks by the Houthis. According to Kallas, several EU countries have offered to contribute more ships to the mission, which would be helpful if it is extended.

    Most recently in March, the EU foreign ministers decided not to extend the mission.”
    https://omni.se/kallas-eu-kan-skicka-fartyg-till-hormuzsundet/a/zOMQOw

  43. MXT

    “The Russian president Vladimir Putin’s statements show that he is weakened – which could open the door for an end to the war in Ukraine, says the EU’s foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas according to AFP.

    Over the weekend, Putin said that he believes the war against Ukraine is “coming to an end”.

    – What the statement actually shows is that he is not in a strong position. So I think there is an opportunity to end this war, says Kallas after a meeting with the EU’s defense ministers.”
    https://omni.se/kallas-putin-ar-forsvagad-ett-tillfalle-att-avsluta-kriget/a/y5gKzE

  48. johan No.1

    MXT – on the subject that the USA/Trump does what is good for them and you have a slightly different opinion.

    When the EU in 2025 tried to counter Trump by turning to China, we had a bit of humiliation, a bus with a work experience student, and no red carpet.

    Now Trump is going to meet the emperor himself.

    What is negative about the USA meeting Xi?

    1. Umlaut

      That Trump throws Taiwan 🇹🇼 under the bus to get his name on some skyscraper or similar deal (the very word deal is catnip for the good Trump).

  49. johan No.1

    Lynx,

    Follow-up question, what I gather about Article 5 is that the representatives of the member states must unanimously vote yes?

    1. Do they vote as their home country tells them to? I guess so, and countries like Slovakia and Turkey have shown some wavering in loyalty over the years.

    2. What happens if there is a no because a country refuses to cooperate?

    3. We agree that governments can vote for military interventions, I have now read up on how it has developed in Sweden in recent years 😀 But that still means that a government must decide on it, right, the coalition in power.

    4. In our case, they have authority for a smaller number and limited time if I have been fooled by AI again.

    I don’t think this is very clear at all – it can easily be sabotaged in NATO, you need a government that dares, and if it is more than a few thousand, you have to get your parliament or national assembly on board.

    For example – we already do not follow the agreements we have with the Baltics about deploying troops in case of increased threat. No government in Europe has made that decision which should reasonably be automatic?

    Ok – now say Sweden manages to vote to send a battalion or three.

    The Russian Baltic Fleet is bobbing just outside the Baltics’ territorial waters, the air force is buzzing, and Suwalki is closed.

    Do you then have to vote on military actions against Russia – sinking ships, or does that fall within the government’s authority?

    Now it is international waters, not the Baltics.

    When I try to get a grip on this, I think there are gray areas. Our politicians must make difficult decisions that involve war and death. Russia knows about these gray areas and will play to the maximum to make us hesitate.

    Every week that passes is a week the Russians can dig in where they stay and strengthen their defense.

     

     

     

    1. johan No.1

      How are decisions made by the government?

      I understand that there are government meetings and 24 ministers – is it a simple majority?

      The first thought that probably crosses a politician’s mind in something like this is to call in sick? They usually don’t like decisions with uncertain outcomes that could cost them their career.

      The opposition primarily thinks about trying to hassle the government to win the election.

      The sitting government wants to win the election.

  51. johan No.1

    I am therefore unable to find where it says that the government freely deploys all defense force employees except conscripts Lynx – Google AI, which I am not allowed to check, is very inconsistent no matter how I ask, 500-1000 under a limited time.

    But if it is as you say – how many can we practically send is the next question?

    In the event of conflict, the Supreme Commander will be screaming to reinforce Gotland and we must still have coup preparedness and other things in place, right?

    BaltBat is probably already decided and they will soon be back on site.

    Practically speaking – when you say they control all forces, do you think we will do like the Russians and send IT specialists, cooks, and secretaries as riflemen to Estonia?

    A few years ago, the discussion was about having two brigades in the Baltics in the event of conflict.

    Most recently, there is some unit in Finnish Lapland and we have reinforced Gotland.

    The Home Guard – aren’t they conscripts?

    1. Proxima

      Since the entire NATO believes that the Russians will test us, Europe has had 4 years to plan a countermeasure. It should be enough to close the strait and the belts to Russian traffic. Probably nothing more is needed.

  55. Bal

    Ok, this is how I think. Previously, I wrote that Putin needs another war. A war against NATO/Europe. A year ago, I believe there were thoughts about conquering land, but that is probably gone now. Today, it is probably more about ultimately being able to say that they fought against NATO but held the Russian border. A false flag could therefore be possible either against the Baltics, northern Finland/Norway, or Svalbard. Svalbard and the Baltics risk destruction from Murmansk or all Russian ports in the Baltic Sea. The next best scenario for Putin is to say that now Russia has sacrificed enough. The UN takes control over the occupied area, Zelensky and his government resign when Russia withdraws to its own border. The operation is completed and successful. Ukraine is liberated from Nazis and the people get to vote on what they want to belong to.

    If it becomes a false flag, we must strike back hard. All Russian ports in the Baltic Sea or Murmansk must be completely unusable.

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