Today we need to discuss Trump – Xi’s upcoming playdate May 13-15.
The worst thing that could happen to us in Europe by far is if Trump – Xi come up with the idea that the least troublesome thing for them is to divide the world between themselves along with Russia.
We know that Putin – Trump have already done this; Venezuela, Ukraine, Syria, Cuba, Iran, eased sanctions for RU, stabbing UA in the back, trade attacks on Europe from the USA and more that absolutely do not benefit the USA’s supposed allies in the rest of the West.
The latest rumor is that Putin is giving Trump a ceasefire before the midterm elections in exchange for some sanction relief – helping each other where needed.
We also know it will be called a cold war, dividing the world between themselves which is every dictator with a bit of self-respect’s big dream – clear borders for where one is allowed to desecrate.
The new player is China, which was fully occupied with mass murdering its own citizens during the cold war and did not have time to participate.
The plan is the same for Europe – scared, divided, frightened and cowardly as Russia projects a great threat against us closely followed by economic warfare supported by a financial crisis.
The least bad option for us in Europe is that China – USA fall out and fight until they get tired, two elephants jabbering at each other until they run out of gas and give up where the conflict zone becomes Asia.
Trump has already abandoned South Korea, Taiwan also feels somewhat abandoned and Trump has asked Japan not to deploy missiles near Taiwan so the signs are already readable in the night sky. The first line against Chinese expansion is no longer propped up by the USA.
As soon as China manages to capture Taiwan, the path is open to expand like a fan where Australia lies furthest away – Taiwan is the block.
These two gentlemen who have fired their respective defense leaderships and do everything to imprison political opposition are to meet once again this year after playing with Lego cars now in May – unusual. Xi Jinping’s big power move was, by the way, when the old king Hu Jintao was humiliatingly removed from a major meeting in front of rolling cameras, that signal politics probably missed no one in China.
Unusual for bitter mortal enemies to meet so often and we all know that everything the USA has done in the last five years was to get at China – or is that not true?
Macron, who is French and therefore by birth has the worst impulse control, is already talking about this rather frightening troika “that is like dead to us”.
During the Cold War, the USA – Soviet Union resolved it as follows, they stood in the middle of Europe and fake-threatened each other to keep Europe terrified. There was a red phone so they knew where they had each other. The USA and Soviet Union played us.
Then they had different core areas the other was not allowed to enter, while other areas were proxies where “may the best man win” applied and one could deliver pinches.
Nothing lasts forever and the Soviet Union blinked first but the USA’s own communist-hysteria was quite dictatorial at its worst. The USA is not the bastion of democracy at all – they had their racial laws well into the 1960s, right?
Post-fall of the wall, the EU and China have slowly advanced while the USA has declined in relevance together with Russia which has pure self-destructive behavior and is its own worst enemy, they hardly need any external enemies.
We have reasoned about the following scenario – Russia opens a conflict while we in Europe can agree on a response, capital gets terrified and flees to the USA.
RU conflict with us will try to be under an Article 5 and EU response until it no longer works – only when the Russian bastards already stand a few miles into the Baltics and threaten with nuclear weapons will we get closer to a response from us that must be voted through in each country’s parliament because then divisions are needed.
Yes, our brigades into eastern Baltics today would give us the time we need but they are not there, they should be there because the threat level is elevated and the agreements stipulate that they then shall enter the area.
First NATO must have consensus before Article 5 can be activated but then each country’s parliament and assemblies must vote to go to war with more troops than the directly accessible governments have the right to command. In cases where decisions can be made by governments, it becomes a matter of agreeing to retake land in eastern Baltics or alternatively let RU hold – quite a few governments in Europe are coalitions today.
The UK soon has no government at all and is completely stuck in domestic political bickering, Kier Starmer was a weak leader in bad times as we have described a couple of times.
Does Denmark have a government – no, they do not.
Do we have elections soon in Sweden – yes, we do in September and the main thought then is to win the election.
Do you think Spain will send troops to the Baltics with the coalition they have?
Has Poland promised to defend only Lithuania or also Estonia and Latvia, and does the same apply to Germany?
If NATO applies – why have Poland and Germany taken some kind of special responsibility for Lithuania?
Now maybe things like this change but that was the last I heard.
If the USA opposes everything – do you think we will bomb Russia or retake the potato fields in eastern Baltics by force?
But in the broader picture it always includes that the USA sooner or later goes to war with China in Asia, that is exactly what all the pros say will happen and when I sit and fight for subscribers on Substack they have full-time jobs with high salaries + revolving doors into TV sofas.
Does Trump go to China to declare war in person or does he do it by email the day before, some animated figure with a little Chinese doll that explodes and WAR in red rolling text?
Does he go to China to find balance with China so they avoid war?
Iran was probably also an attempt to scare China a bit I imagine – one of the hidden purposes?
Trump dangles Taiwan and that he will keep a low profile in the rest of Asia + trade in exchange for China leaving MENA and South America to the USA?
A personal bribe to Trump is naturally also included besides China giving some big piece of meat that makes Trump look strong before the midterm elections – Trump likes trade so expect some juicy trade deal or investment that will “make us filthy rich here in the USA because you have me as president”. Maybe Chinese investments in Republican-controlled states?
Africa will probably be the proxy arena (again).
Both agree to try to help Russia get out of the mess they have gotten themselves into.
It can’t get worse than this for Europe – the only way forward is then to forcibly bribe our own security instead of leading the way to eternal peace through trade and joy with Sweden at the forefront as the humanitarian superpower.
Are we there – Macron thinks so anyway as he stands with a bright red face yelling about Napoleon’s spirit.
Can we resist all three, well I would say no, but if history repeats itself we have actually done it before – and the EU is becoming increasingly stable so maybe we can handle an attempt, time will tell.
If we fail to hold out, the house of cards will fall pretty fast – we are now in the phase where the most firepower wins and all the countries that have now started orienting themselves against us will then be forced to back down before threats we cannot protect them from.
For me, there is only one way forward – make sure to solve the Russia problem before Russia solves its problem with us. We do that by ensuring that Ukraine wins its decisive victory and that the Baltics become a Russian mass grave.
After that, we mine the border again, help Belarus and demilitarize Kaliningrad and we have solved our first urgent problem.
If Russia falls, we at least have a chance to start strengthening ourselves but if a Russian bastard keeps poking us with a stick in the side all the time, we become too chaotic and project so much weakness that our new friends disappear.
What I can say with fairly high certainty is that the evil team is still seven steps ahead of Europe – the last time we tried to visit China, the EU delegation was received by a bus and an intern. When Trump comes, it is Xi Jinping who welcomes at the airport.
Europe, on the other hand, has made a really solid alpha move in response,
We board the shadow fleet, threaten the USA with dumping government debt and now do not want to enter into trade agreements with China.
We actively push for trade and “friendship” with; Japan, SK, Taiwan, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Mexico, India and all the old -stans.
Who do you think could feel acutely threatened by this – I can think of three.
Do you think these three will sit still in the boat and wait until we are the empire where the sun never sets again?
We know Russia is starting to get cornered but also that they then just escalate the level of violence – the only thing they can do.
We also know that the USA goes to war nowadays, and that Trump is prepared to try to weaken us with soft financial weapons – already underway since early 2026.
We have not yet seen China’s move, the first confirmation comes this weekend but if they want, they can choke off quite a lot of our imports which we are still 100% dependent on.
Yes, great with LNG from Azerbaijan but that pipeline is one sabotage away from going to zero, right.
There is a lot this evil troika can do against us that we have difficulty defending against for the simple reason that they have already chosen war while we still think it is peace, and pretty sure we are not ready to be an active party in a high-intensity global conflict yet.
What Trump and Xi are now cooking up will affect our security situation – we can be completely sure of that. Our alpha move was sensible but as this develops, you need to run parallel alpha violence when you make an alpha move, and it remains to be seen if we are ready for that.
Now my campaign for more subscriptions on Substack yielded nothing so we move on to phase two – if you read all posts and like them, it would be kind if you could share them on all channels so the rest of the world also gets the benefit of reading them.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-13
Slava Ukraini
AFU reports:
** Ukrainian drones reportedly strike port infrastructure in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai
Ukraine’s military launched a drone attack on Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight on May 13, reportedly striking port infrastructure in the village of Volna, Russian Telegram media channels reported.
Videos posted to social media purport to show large plumes of smoke rising from a nearby port, various media channels reported.
In a separate post on Telegram, the Krasnodar Krai Operational Headquarters reported a fire involving equipment on the premises of an unspecified enterprise, further claiming that one person was injured in the Ukrainian drone attack.
NASA’s fire monitoring system, FIRMS, appeared to corroborate officials claims, with a fire reported at what appears to be an oil storage facility near the port. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-port-infrastructure-in-russias-krasnodar-krai/
Rapporterade om det här redan i går men ganska sent så många kanske missade och nu har äve Kyiv Indpenedent skrivit om det:
** Major fire reportedly breaks out at tourist complex in Moscow
A massive fire reportedly broke out at a tourist complex in Moscow overnight on May 13, Russian Telegram media channels reported.
The blaze, which reportedly exceeds an area of more than 3,000 square meters (32,000 square feet), was reported at the Izmailovo Kremlin complex in eastern Moscow, a cultural and entertainment complex that seeks to mimic the architectural stylings of the Kremlin.
Local residents reported that part of the building housing an escape room venue collapsed having been fully engulfed by the fire. **
https://kyivindependent.com/major-fire-reportedly-breaks-out-at-tourist-complex-in-moscow/
Things that happen 🙂
** Trump Denies Any Deal With Putin on Donbas
Trump said “No” when asked whether he had reached an understanding with Vladimir Putin that Donbas should become part of Russia. His denial came as he again claimed Russia’s war against Ukraine is “very close” to ending, while Kyiv continues to reject any settlement that would cede Ukrainian territory to Moscow. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75989
I will keep nagging about Article 5 and the hypothesis that parliament must approve sending conscripts abroad. And that this would mean that Europe cannot face a real threat because (implicitly) conscripts are such a large group that they are needed to form forces at the division level.
If we start with conscripts and contract employees, the situation is that in the numerically largest EU countries, i.e. Italy, Germany, and France, the armed forces are almost exclusively employed (and to some extent voluntary) soldiers. The same applies to the United Kingdom, by the way.
The Nordic countries stand out by still relying on conscription to some extent, but only Finland still has a conscription-based defense. The other Nordic countries have professional defenses with employed (and voluntary for territorial defense) personnel, and only a small part of the armed forces are conscripts.
When it comes to whether people doing conscription can be sent to other countries to meet Article 5, an attack on another NATO country is considered an attack on (Sweden, Finland, etc.). The answer is therefore that the common interpretation is that an activated Article 5 corresponds to an armed attack on, for example, Sweden, and conscripts may thus be used for this as well.
But in Sweden, there has been discussion about whether this would violate the constitution. The political answer has been that we do not intend to send conscripts during training but only fully trained ones, i.e., a compromise where the government promises not to use its authority.
So, all in all, European NATO is almost exclusively employed except for Finland. And since an attack on another NATO country should be considered an attack on one’s own country, it is considered permissible to send conscripts abroad, even though various discussions have been initiated by political movements that are negative towards NATO.
[end of know-it-all rant].
Interesting. Thank you.👍
Good. Right should be right. Then you can probably bet that there would be a hell of a domestic political uproar if we send conscripts out to war. Not least from those who have opposed a NATO membership.
👍
** Putin Claims Successful Test of ‘Doomsday’ Sarmat Missile After Years of Failures and Delays
Russia says it successfully tested its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, reviving claims about the troubled “doomsday” weapon after years of failed launches, explosions and repeated delays. President Vladimir Putin called it the world’s most powerful missile, despite ongoing uncertainty over its full operational deployment. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75999
🥱😴
Absolutely right reaction! 👍😄
“Good morning! Today a severe fire suddenly started at the important Nurlino pumping station, which pumps oil through Bashkortostan to Russian oil refineries. Things like this happen in Putin’s madhouse.”
https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/2054448614974341282
💪🏻😍👍🏻
Well timed, Johan no 1. 👍👍👍
This interesting post today as Xi and Trump are about to meet in Beijing.
Two superpowers with somewhat different histories behind them.
During the USA’s 250-year history, the USA has been at peace for 17 years (Christian Oord, War History Online).
During that time, the USA has intervened in other countries more than 500 times. The Cold War lasted 44 years, during which the USA conducted 130 interventions, 3 per year. This period was not cold for the USA except that these American wars were fought in other countries.
After the Cold War, the USA has been involved in another 130 wars and conflicts. (The Cold War, Gunnar Wall/Semic p. 507)
On the home front, the USA has focused on sorting black and white people and making sure the indigenous population stays calm in the reservations.
But something positive has come from the USA? Yes, of course, Elvis Presley.
China has a different history. China was about to lose its status as a nation after two opium wars with England and France. The first large-scale drug abuse that makes Trump’s chasing after small boats in the Caribbean look trivial. It was a very widespread abuse in China and basically lasted until the communists’ victory in the civil war in 1949. (The Book of Mao/Jung Chang/Prisma)
After the opium wars came the Boxer Rebellion, the first invasion by Japan, civil war, the second invasion by Japan, and then Mao took over. He was not much better, roughly Stalin-class with the Cultural Revolution and the “Great Leap Forward.”
In park benches in Shanghai, there were signs with the text “Dogs and Chinese not allowed.” Sound familiar? In Cape Town, there were similar signs “Only blanks.” Blank is Afrikaans for white. Imagine if it said “Dogs and Swedes not allowed” in Berzelii Park or Kungsträdgården?
China has made a fantastic journey over the last 50 years, and even though I strongly dislike their political system, I am impressed by China’s successes.
When Trump visits China today, it would have been appropriate if he, for once, had shown a little humility toward his hosts.
Thank you, a good summary of what has shaped the giants. Good to have in geopolitical memory.
And extra points for Elvis Presley, OT the documentary on Netflix is very worth watching and my image of him shifted 180 degrees, from a secretly chubby doll dressed in white sequin suits to actually an incredibly talented and sensitive artist. Imagine if he had had a different manager…
Thank you for the tip about Netflix. Yes, in some stage costumes he looked like a badly stuffed sausage. That was probably because of all the pills he was taking. I know he has recorded a Swedish song: Carl Boberg’s famous religious song “O store Gud (How Great Thou Art)”.
Fun with Boberg, I didn’t know that!
Yes, he ended up completely off track in the end. Burned the candle at both ends and in the middle. Rip!
Thanks for the background! 👍
A sharp increase in the fighting, 210, but if you look at the number of attacks along the reported front, you don’t even get half of these, 102. Rather, the number of localized fights decreased compared to yesterday. Apparently, there has been fog, darkness, or dust causing the remaining fights to be missed. Or do they not want to reveal where? Could it be about Ukrainian counterattacks. The ratio is the highest since measurements started on May 1 last year, 1.06, i.e. more unlocalized attacks 108 (Ukrainian?) than localized attacks, 102 (clearly Russian according to AFU)
N Slobozhansky 1↘️
S Slobozhansky 8↘️
Kupyansk 1
Lyman 5↘️
Slovyansk 1↘️
Kramatorsk 1
Kostyantynivka 31💥💥↗️
Pokrovsk 32💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 1
Huliaipole 16💥↘️
Orikhivsk 5
Prydniprovskij 0
Localized 102↘️
Unlocalized 108↗️↗️
Total 210↗️
Ratio unloc/loc 1.06↗️↗️
Interesting change!
Interesting! 👍
Let’s hope the Russian is starting to lose interest.
Speaking of sharing, it would be good to have a script on the page for sharing. It requires a lot of manual effort to share anything other than a truncated page title and a link with a poor image. Many media include an introduction when sharing, but it is completely missing.
Johan is lazy and never uploads any pictures and also doesn’t write any introduction, so it becomes difficult to solve in a nice way no matter what you do with the script (unless you let AI write an introduction, of course, but it often might struggle to write a good summary that you want to release without reviewing).
Under the post today, there are two sharing links for Facebook and X.
If there are any other social media platforms you want, I can check if the plugin supports them or switch plugins.
Sigh, I checked the plugin settings and then I remembered why there weren’t more icons. They have restricted everything else and put it under “Premium features” which, of course, they want to be paid for.
The priority is completely correct. Europe has taken over the burden transfer of Ukraine from the USA. In a leading security policy role, Kaja Kallas has become a thorn in the side of the peace agreement advocates, where the relinquishment of Ukrainian territory to Russia is seen as obvious in order to buy temporary respite from Russian aggression. Europe is late to the game, but throughout the war we have worked towards increasing unity (most recently Hungary) and a security policy position of strength. And you mention all the towns and regions that are interested in rapprochement. We probably don’t even need to threaten to sell American Treasury bills if we continue on this path, because what does the USA have to gain from losing Europe as a trading partner and instead getting China, which it has struggled for more than two presidential administrations to become independent from?
I completely agree with these conclusions.
I agree here as well.
Interesting post today with Johan.
If there is any division into “spheres of interest,” the EU must step up and make it clear that European Russia is part of OUR spheres of interest. Not the other way around.
I agree. Then we can decide that the part of Russia that is our sphere of interest should be fenced off in an appropriate way and the key thrown away if they don’t shape up and become a democratic country.
Absolutely and carry out regime change to ensure the latter. And divide into suitably sized countries that cannot be allowed to threaten us.
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been subjected to, among other things, electric shocks, mock executions, and brainwashing in Russian prison camps, according to testimonies collected by AFP.
– Men who defended their homeland, trained at the gym – strong men – were broken down like dogs. They destroy them, says former prisoner Yaroslav Rymyantsev to the news agency.
The information is also confirmed by several former Russian prison guards who have fled the country. They state that their commanders gave them “free rein” to use violence and promised that there would be no consequences.
https://omni.se/a/n1Gbvn
Has 205 hit the UA offensive start or is it an anomaly from the ceasefire?
Yes, if you just paste the link, the image will automatically appear, which would be nice 👍
An available image is also required.
For example, if you share today’s post where there is no featured image, it will take the first one it finds, which will be my loss report.
Will return Lynx, did you see that I wrote a lot yesterday?
And there came the Russian rocket rain as a thank you for the respect for May 9th…
Apparently a multi-day one just to drive the point home
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2054499748694876283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russian bastards do as Russian bastards usually do.
WarTranslated on X:
“U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth told the Senate that American military personnel and Department of Defense employees are regularly dispatched to Ukraine for combat training.”
The USA has personnel being trained in Ukraine to handle the drone warfare.
Video clip in link
By the way, I think the talk does not always match the reality when it comes to the security relationship between the USA and Europe.
Wrote yesterday but posting the link again. 🙂
Mark Biernat explains the Russian devils’ economic outlook. It is not bright.
https://youtu.be/mdM2IrWflwQ?is=LgkBtltu3C4v8tcm