On johanno1.se, there is a group of dedicated posters in the thread who convey information. We concluded there that the UA offensive started around May 12 just from the statistics, and since OPSEC prevailed, not many others believed it at that time.
These days, we are absolutely being hard-drenched with encouraging news on johanno1.se, a selection:
Brovid says that 20,000 Russians are cut off and hungry, easy to understand that it refers to the Dnipro front.
In RU’s latest drone attack on Ukraine, the defense shot down 98% of the drones, there you go.
The Belarus EXILE GOVERNMENT commented that Ukraine has drone-struck targets in Belarus. These are relay stations for drones. Lukashenko was probably forced to turn them on by Putin for this operation.
This speaks volumes – the first targets in Belarus and the opposition leader, whatever her name is, recently visited Ukraine. Now it is a full exile government that comments and stands firm.
One must not forget that the citizens of Belarus largely want to free themselves from the dictatorship and interrogations that end in torture-death, to instead move closer to the EU just like Ukraine did.
Besides that, Crimea is soon blacked out and dried up, the refineries continue to burn, and if the heat moves over Ukraine seriously from continental Europe, which it seems to do, Russian soldiers will become very thirsty.
They currently have poor supply deliveries from the logistics due to all the drone attacks on road transports, and in the areas they defend, corpses lie close together, so when they try to drink from puddles, they get sick. The choices are to die of thirst or cholera.
“It is not over until it’s over,” as they say, and a Russian saving grace is to hope that Ukraine is forced to a ceasefire if Putin agrees to it. We are not there yet, but that card will of course be played with Trump’s and China’s eager encouragement for world peace if it gets tight.
Now we are entering the realm of rumors, so don’t take this completely at face value, but the elite are getting tired of the war and have given Putin an ultimatum – do as Russia has always done and increase the level of violence if the current level of violence doesn’t work so that we get an end to this.
It is easy to see that Putin is painted into a corner without a clear way out right now, and when Ukraine increases the pressure, his only option is to also increase it. He has a good grip on the FSB, so the above is probably a compromise, “okay, we understand you can’t admit defeat, so increase instead until you find a way out that is viable for you.”
Putin has a few options to choose from – mobilization and increasing pressure in Ukraine, tactical nuclear weapons, bringing Belarus into the war, or attacking the Baltics.
Svalbard is probably also on the list, but that wouldn’t resonate with the masses the same way as teaching NATO a lesson would.
Putin needs an off-ramp, and Ukraine does not offer that at all, which is starting to make Putin really cornered – that is when dictators are most dangerous.
From what we can see today, all options are bad except possibly the Baltics, which admittedly is not good either, but this is a dictator fighting for his physical survival right now, so anything is better than dangling on the gallows, deeply marinated in diesel, praying to idols that the rabble has Russian matches that don’t work.
The elite naturally have a plan B if needed – blame everything on Putin, expose him, and end the war. However, there is probably no shortage of hawks in the Russian administration, and especially the FSB stands on Putin’s side, so Plan B comes with the highest risk for those involved.
Recently, a gentleman who was previously proposed as Putin’s successor suddenly died but had also recently criticized the war – Putin’s claws still scratch is probably the only conclusion one can draw from this?
China has built up RU’s digital battlefield and fairly soon they will probably have to start delivering anti-drone technology that works to protect Russia against the aggressor Ukraine. China likes the war because everyone weakens except them; probably they are not fully supportive of a big win for Ukraine and will support with what they think they can get away with.
If you accept the position that the USA-Russia-China have planned escalation in seven steps already, it becomes a bit easier to understand all of Trump’s antics, I think. JD Vance was in Munich provoking us, Zelensky was humiliated in the White House, and when Trump closed Hormuz, he accused Europe of doing nothing at all, only actively opposing his quest for world peace. It became a bit extra delicate when Iran wanted Hormuz open and Trump immediately promised to close it – it was hard to navigate who did what there for a while.
For example, China has recently trained Russian soldiers in ABC warfare, feels like a couple of steps forward they are planning for, right?
The actions then become deliberate provocations and then immediately a highly planned counter-reaction to our reasonable and proportionate responses like “you huge bullies, you are not our friends,” often from Trump himself. This enormous grievance against the USA and Trump “justifies” then a lot of military cutbacks, punitive tariffs, or export bans for us in Europe.
Everything is then chopped up seemingly without any logic at all, but if you sit in Putin’s chair, it is instead a surgical scalpel that cuts away everything he does not like – the offensive units in NE Europe and LNG that will leave us powerless this winter.
Canada currently runs the most offensive unit in the entire Baltics, so the connection back to that and that Trump has gone hard on Canada is not entirely far-fetched actually if you have your new glasses on your nose.
Since it was Spain and Italy that did not want overflights and the Baltics instead are the USA’s biggest fanboys, it is hard to explain why everything was left in Spain and Italy but removed from the Baltics.
However, only until the point that one accepts that everything is a game with seven planned moves where Trump, Putin, and Xi hold the strings and card numbers on WhatsApp.
For example, this – the Baltics offer to cover exactly all costs for US units in their countries, and also to buy only American weapons at an overprice. Exactly what Trump claims to want to achieve, but the units still disappear from the area faster than you can say Monday.
Everything is always relative – if Russia does not have enough to open a conflict front in the Baltics today, maybe they will when the USA has withdrawn all its defense from the area?
Then we have the “95% ocean difference” on this with Operation Baltic according to a unanimous readership. Now at least the Baltics are starting to sweat seriously and summer has only just begun even though it is warm, so that is probably why they are sweating when I think about it.
Since no one even dares to think the unthinkable, Putin can still fiddle with this as best he can between his sleep apnea attacks – there is no tripwire at all in the eastern Baltics to stumble over, so as far as Russia is concerned, it is almost impossible to keep oneself in check. That’s actually how much I think we have learned since 2022?
We know with some certainty that RU intends to mobilize early autumn and in 2022 it made a difference of a few months. Today the entire skeleton is in place and all that is needed are new soldiers in the trenches, it will go faster.
Lukashenko is under great pressure to project a threat to his neighborhood, war has probably never been seriously intended for Belarus and the meeting with Putin was to avoid shutting down the relay stations for the drones if I may guess.
Putin probably threatened invasion for that audacity so Luka went over to Xi to cry it out, and China tried to be the adult in the room which is a positive in the context as it shows some friction on the away team.
Exactly what will happen lies with Putin but you can safely assume that RU will escalate it – it is ingrained in the Russian DNA strand.
Everything is always relative as I said.
“Russia has not built up any capability at all against the Baltics” vs “there is not a single international soldier between Rezekne and Tartu” are two examples. There are no Balts there either because they have to mobilize first. Probably the border protection is in the hundreds and the area is completely open for infiltration that can reach the mob depots in Rezekne and Võru where the Estonians’ and Latvians’ defense for the neighborhood will try to mobilize. Their mobile brigades will defend Daugavpils/Riga and the Tallinn area. They must also have coup defense, mobile reserve and all that which taxes their few units.
The Balts’ Maginot line has not been built yet – tougher fieldwork is hard to find. It is drawn up and they have finished arguing about the thickness of the bunker walls, but it is not built. North of Tartu there is some but the area between Tartu – Rezekne is completely undefended. Clement Mohlin has actually gone through this and shown with satellite photos that nothing exists even though I based my assumption on a couple of articles on the subject so now I have full support from physical evidence.
There is also enormous subversive activity in the countries already which they try to fend off as best they can, so if RU intends to attack they already have access to saboteurs inside the country for a twilight scenario.
This will be an interesting year, some things you just have to accept you will never understand I guess – why the USA let Shiite militias from surrounding countries into Tehran for example and above all why we REFUSE to send in defensive defense into the Baltics who spend the summer mining the border area in SE Estonia and NE Latvia.
Finland survived its Winter War 1939 by doing exactly that, the summer before everything that could be mobilized was mobilized and then it was hard work in the forest until the war started – they did not take chances and you should never do that with Russia.
Almost a dereliction of duty this, at least a written reprimand should be given to those responsible that will follow them through life like a bad bitcoin purchase.
We should probably put a bit of a warning on this but I have guessed that it roughly fits that the USA deviated from Israel’s plan. Recently Trump and Netanyahu mostly argue when they talk.
Now that we got such a nice picture of JD Vance, we almost have to squeeze in that movie where he embarrasses himself during negotiations with Iran, a lightweight trying to fight heavyweight against an early Tyson.
The sanctions against the shadow fleet also seem to be going really well I must say.
A ship that the entire West has full sanctions against sails past Denmark with Russian dirty oil and the only ones trying to follow the ship are Greenpeace. Fun that Greenpeace is involved though – good good.
The aluminum transports from Ireland to Russia via either sanctioned ships or our ships are also still going on completely unhindered to this day. Huge amounts have been exported to RU throughout the war.
Here you have a readable article that has done its homework – very good and in line with how we have discussed over time I think how things have gone?
Probably they stole everything from the thread without swishing MXT.
The better things go for Ukraine, the greater the risk that Russia will strike out against us – that correlation cannot be changed and the only thing our leaders must do now is do nothing at all. Let Ukraine be, reinforce the Baltics and let time work against Putin because he is the one who feels it is overtime now, no one else.
Probably the most critical phase of the war now at the beginning of the end but if Ukraine loses momentum anything can happen.
Now Zalizhny apparently intends to run in the presidential election if it takes place, he is good and we like him a lot but that also means there are many divisions in Ukraine that RU can capitalize on. If we go against Ukraine now the damage could be incalculable.
Paid subscription has been hard to sell unfortunately, I hope as always that 8USD/month can be worth it to keep the writing going and I also don’t want to lock texts and all that – but more subscribers are needed, it’s hard to get around. Thanks also to all the loyal ones who have subscribed through this.
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Very good post.👍👍👍
Don’t count Greenpeace out. Who doesn’t remember when they disrupted Japanese whalers down there
Very good post. 👍👍👍
Don’t count Greenpeace out. Who doesn’t remember when they disrupted Japanese whalers down by Antarctica. It was probably the world’s second largest whale, the minke whale, that the Japanese were after. Greenpeace also got Mitterand to stop nuclear tests in the South Pacific.
Agree. BUT stop and evidence regarding the praises of Greenpeace. Don’t forget their involvement in greenwashing of Russian dirty gas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy
So true, Pehr, so true. One should not forget that.
Gas is still the best option among the fossil alternatives, and it seems that the idea was to move away from it as well, even if in hindsight it sounds like smoke screens.
Incredibly bad to deal with Russian gas regardless of whether it is better than coal and oil.
Russia, a country that doesn’t care about most environmental issues in any area.
At the same time, Germany overall has not had any problem importing Russian gas, so the idiocy probably applies to the whole country and not just the German branch of Greenpeace.
By the way, this also applies to Sweden, we imported Russian gas until the summer of 2024.
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-07-03
SLAVA UKRAINI
General Staff Summary:
👍👍👍
(Fixed the links so they are clickable)
How do you do that?
You edit the text and choose link instead of embedded.
Embedded means that it tries to fetch the content and display it directly on the page, but it usually doesn’t work (it only accepts certain sources, and that partly depends on how the “other” site has configured it. When it can’t embed, you can choose to display a link instead.
I guess you don’t get those options when you paste the bulk of text, you probably need to save the page first and then go in and edit, then it becomes quite clear where WordPress has failed to embed.
When it fails to embed, the text is just displayed plainly without being linked. Here, one might think that WordPress could be a bit smarter and automatically display it as a link.
** Ukraine reportedly strikes Russian energy equipment plant in Belgorod.
Photos and videos posted to social media purport to show flames emanating from the Energomash Belgorod plant — a key manufacturer in Russia’s energy supply chain. The plant reportedly produces equipment for Russia’s power plants, as well as its oil and gas sector, among other materials. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-belgorod-july-3/
Ukraine is methodical in its strategic campaign to stop the Russian economy and thereby thwart the Russian devils’ ability to wage war.
** Russia allows lower-grade gasoline production as Ukrainian attacks choke fuel supply **
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-allows-lower-grade-gasoline-production-as-ukrainian-attacks-choke-fuel-supply/
Good! In the long run, it can clog up the fuel system and catalytic converters and make the cars unusable. The catalytic converter is easy to remove, but cleaning injectors is not an easy job. What will the average Ivan in Moscow say when the car misfires or dies? Probably more swearing than when he is standing in line at the empty gas station.
Russia Is A Terrorist State!
** Russian Strike Kills 7-Year-Old Child, Injures Two Other Children in Eastern Ukraine
In brief: A seven-year-old child was killed and two other children were injured in a Russian attack near Synelnykove, while separate strikes on Nikopol and Oleksandrivka killed two more civilians. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79470
An increase in hostilities primarily driven by a Russian advance mainly towards Donetsk, but also Kramatorsk (S Slobozhansky). The Ukrainian offensive pressure well over 100 attacks in the last 24 hours.
N Slobozhansky 6↗️, S Slobozhansky 22💥↗️, Kupyansk 2, Lyman 7↘️, Slovyansk 30💥💥, Kramatorsk 0, Kostjantynivka 17💥, Pokrovsk 39💥💥↗️, Oleksandrivskij 2↘️, Huliaipole 32💥💥↗️, Orikhivsk 0, Prydniprovskij 0,
Localized 157↗️, Unlocalized 116↘️, Total 273↗️, R. unloc/loc 0.7↘️
From S and Ö it is RU that is moving towards Kramatorsk/Slovyansk so the gray zone belongs to them.
About 15km away comfortably within fab and drone range now.
This year’s Bakhmut 2023 and the flytrap.
The Lyman flanking did not happen.
Did you see that UA is trying to make a fab-killer 😀
Yes, credit to Greenpeace for the shadow fleet, have always liked them 👍👍
There is hope, look who the author is 😀
Like with Greenpeace, I thought, there are still sensible ones left
It will be interesting to see how the pro-Israel Americans and those with Jewish backgrounds position themselves regarding Rep and Trump/Vance in the midterm elections this fall. Now that, as Johan has pointed out, some information seems to have leaked and knives have been stuck both here and there between the two (former?) allies.
Yes absolutely 👍👍
Also interesting is the situation in the Democratic Party, which is talked about less. There, polarization seems to be increasing between AOC’s and Mamdani’s socialist gang and the usual traditional groups of white middle-class liberals, which seem to be dissolving gradually. Has anyone seen an analysis of what is happening within the Democrats?
The groundwork is seriously starting to form for a moderate centrist party in the USA.
It can certainly, when the time is right, get solution-oriented politicians from both Dem and GOP to join.
Don’t like this.
It was supposed to be SMR and not a lot of support 😐
This is exactly what I have opposed regarding wind power and solar power.
I think we might as well own it and then have a low Sweden price with zero profit.
Is it guaranteed to be a price higher than today?
I don’t like it either, should the state (we) be responsible for the money, or risk being responsible for the money, I think we should own it as well. Now I don’t know exactly how that guarantee is supposed to work but it will be all of us who have to stand for it regardless.
That’s the downside of nuclear power, the sky-high investment costs that make it uncertain to make a profit. They have to be kept in operation for a long time, and you never know what other technologies might emerge along the way or what political decisions will be made.
Of course, I can understand if you want price guarantees to reduce the risk, but it feels like the wrong path to take. Besides more stable deliveries, you also want to lower prices.
Otherwise, it’s better to install even more cheap wind turbines and better grids and then import expensive power on the days when the wind doesn’t blow, as well as redistribute the income from hydropower.
Then an SMR would cost 50 billion SEK.
Now there are 250 billion in guarantees for one of the projects.
Feels like the elite who wanted 400 billion in support for large reactors just switched to SMR with the same ambition.
Extremely boring.
No one wants to invest in wind power anymore and the companies are bleeding 😀
—
I think municipalities can own their SMRs instead of those who need them, yes it has to be loans of course but their companies often have zero profit if they are managed correctly.
Don’t know how anchored 50 billion is for SMR, sounds cheap. But they have to make money too, so 5 times the investment is probably a minimum! 😂
Yes, most spinning companies are bleeding, but that’s because it’s ill-considered. Almost as if the best would have been if the state owned everything, then it would be possible to balance.
Vattenfall laughs all the way to the bank, they avoid emptying the reservoirs when it’s windy and get overpaid when it’s not. Previously, electricity was ridiculously expensive just because it had rained poorly in the north for a week.. So they probably had it pretty good back then too.
Then I wouldn’t invest in wind power today either considering that now there will be investments in subsidized nuclear power.
Not easy to be long-term.
It is not easy when both sides are affected by finance and we are just an open cash book 😐
Vattenfall is 100% owned by the state. Vattenfall owns 20% of VKAB
The state owns 60% of VKAB.
Industry owns 20% of VKAB.
So 80% of your wish comes true No.1! Then the fact that a Sweden price will never become a reality with the current 8 parties is another story.
Agree that this could have been solved with clear ownership control of Vattenfall.
We (the state) will still own it both directly and through Vattenfall.
Vattenfall previously owned the company, but in June 2026 the Swedish state purchased a majority stake. Vattenfall and the industrial consortium Industrikraft (which includes SSAB, Boliden, and the Volvo Group, among others) are other key players.
** ❗️SBU struck the Saky airfield in Crimea for the second time this week — 7 hangars were hit, with at least 7 aircraft (Su-30SM, Su-30, Su-24) destroyed or damaged.** https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mpqd5jk5dc2z
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79512
“Ukraine has attacked two Russian airbases on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, reports Reuters. At least seven fighter jets and a drone storage facility are said to have been damaged or destroyed, according to the security service SBU.
Ukraine has also struck an energy facility in the Russian city of Belgorod, reports Kyiv Independent. Images on social media show the facility ablaze, but exactly how severely the facility has been damaged is not clear.
The mayor of the Russian-occupied city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region simultaneously states that five people have been killed in a Ukrainian attack, reports AFP.”
https://omni.se/baser-pa-krym-attackerade-ryska-stridsplan-forstorda/a/8pRrGA
UA has basically taken out the Russian air defense in Crimea. I wonder if the Russians have (had) any functioning planes left at Saky.
** 💥😎 In the enemy’s operational depth, SBS Birds effectively worked out 48 targets during the night of July 3. **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mpqcdnpeas2p
Finland is purchasing the new generation of Saab’s air defense missile system Robot 70, according to a press release. The procurement is worth 108 million euros, equivalent to 1.2 billion kronor.
– We are developing Finland’s air defense system on a broad front, says Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen in a statement.
The features of Saab’s RBS 70 NG, as the system is formally called, are said to improve Finland’s ability to counter drones and manned aircraft.
After the announcement, Saab’s stock is trading up towards zero after having been in the red all morning.
https://omni.se/finland-koper-saabs-robot-70-for-drygt-en-miljard/a/K8WOje
Didn’t Finland buy from Israel?
Actually don’t remember, they might buy from multiple sources, or changed their mind.
The number of targets UA is fighting is ENORMOUS now.
Same as always, how can you still have ships and planes in Crimea 😳
Putin probably misses the time when Ukraine was not allowed to drone across the border 🤣🤣🤣
this was very fun 🤣🤣🤣
😂😂😂😂😂👍
Fatso,
The GOP should be able to lose support from both the Jewish and Muslim diasporas for the midterm election, right?
Everyone should be dissatisfied, I think?
I gave up on Bluesky, it became like a black hole.
Why do you think it never took off?
Black hole? You’ll have to make a bit more effort. 😉
It keeps growing, was about 30 million when I created an account, now it’s 45.
Of course, it’s far from Twitter which has somewhere between 550 and 600 million, but on the other hand I suspect that more than half are bots on that platform.
https://bcounter.nat.vg
Not a chance that all accounts on Twitter are real people.
I have signed up for the (Swedish) European alternative https://wsocial.eu/
Took the opportunity to do it too, so we’ll see if I get an account.
Then it will probably take a long time before that becomes big as well.
I got an account relatively quickly. Took about a week.
Several of those I follow on Blåskyn already have an account.
Did you see this?
It’s annoying that they NEVER manage to get it right 😐
Goodwill as well as the avoided cost of scrapping. The choice should be simple, if you disregard the badwill with Putte, but I thought the Poles didn’t care about that.
So BAD 👎
So, now I’ve started my vacation.
Nice with some good old Swedish summer weather, 15-16 degrees, cloudy and occasional rain!
Sun and 20 degrees on the west coast.
👍
European NATO countries and Canada will provide Ukraine with military support amounting to 70 billion euros, equivalent to 773 billion kronor, during 2026. This is according to a document Reuters has obtained. Support of “at least the same level” is promised for 2027. 30 billion euros of the support will consist of EU loans, and the rest will come from individual countries. The support will be presented at next week’s NATO meeting in Ankara.
👍👍👍
Here it came again. This time via Omni
Russia is planning an armed “provocation” against Poland to test NATO’s resolve. The US warns of this according to sources to the Polish Onet, writes The Telegraph.
Washington has repeatedly warned that it could happen within the next few months, the sources say, who are close to Poland’s president Karol Nawrocki.
According to Onet’s security sources, it could involve a drone attack on critical infrastructure such as power stations, simulated air strikes, or a “hybrid attack in the border region.”
Russia may possibly send in soldiers citing GPS errors or to “rescue” a helicopter that has made an emergency landing, according to the sources.
A week ago, the Latvian intelligence service and a senior politician in another NATO country also stated that they see signs that Russia is planning a military provocation against Poland or the Baltics, writes The Guardian.
https://omni.se/a/2pqLAR
A Swede, a German, and a Dutchman walk into a bar.
The bartender asks:
– But where is the Norwegian?
All three answer:
– Still in the World Cup.
Johan, now you’re green with envy, Trump knows how to make money from cryptocurrencies!
“During 2025, Donald Trump earned 2.2 billion dollars from his businesses, equivalent to around 21 billion kronor, with the majority coming from cryptocurrencies. It resembles more a Russian or Turkish leader than an American one, writes Jason Horowitz in the New York Times. ‘Trump’s revenues were once unthinkable for a leader in a liberal democracy, especially a sitting American president. No modern, sitting Western leader has ever reported such large revenues.’ According to experts, it is now becoming harder for anti-corruption investigators worldwide to combat the kind of behavior that the USA previously condemned, writes Horowitz. The reported incomes are likely just the tip of the iceberg, writes George Chidi in The Guardian. – We don’t get the full picture. […] We don’t know where some of the income comes from or how much tax he pays on it, so much is deliberately kept in the dark, says Jordan Libowitz from the organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics. During a 40-hour workweek, Trump earned the equivalent of around 2,000 kronor per hour as president, and over ten million kronor per hour from his other businesses, writes Chidi.”
https://omni.se/a/aJ35Xa