We aimed for Oskil but it was only Zherebets, June 26, 2026

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A mood picture from a previous RU attempt at Siversky Donets and not from this year.

So standing outdoors in bright sunshine all day monitoring a geotech with SPT and drilling – sunburn like a fried lobster roughly and gulping bottled water like a midsummer binge, hence the silence.

Last week there were meetings ahead of contract signing with the Chinese marine contractor and I have seen something new. The client is an Italian company so they start at 09:00 plus or minus half an hour and push on until 19:00 plus or minus an hour with some short breaks, then straight out for dinner until 22:00 – repeat for five days.

No structure, no program and often everyone just sits and shouts over each other only to then dive into individual discussions in Italian and Chinese – when you think everything is lost “yes we agree to that”.

Since we are not basing on FIDIC or any other framework it becomes “sky is the limit”, I sat quietly for a whole week just studying the chaos. The lunches were divine, Italian finger food lunch, and the dinners Spanish “steakhouse” where you get a few kilos of imported Spanish beef to stuff yourself per person so my diet is ruined.

An experience. Older Italian managers who have flown in are quite sophisticated and interesting to talk to – a class you rarely see nowadays, old school.

I thought about starting with Iran but I can’t be bothered, a cycle of disinformation and constantly new messages. I honestly feel sorry for the Iranian citizens who were thrown under the bus by Trump. Supported a regime change, do not support this at all. Israel has brought on a significantly worsened security situation but the laws of war also apply to them now that they chose full war with Iran.

3rd AC is responsible for the area north of Lyman which is among the tougher front sections, plus they are undermanned as all reserves were taken for Kupiansk.

Despite that they have managed to reach Zherebets NE of the town of Lyman and are trying to attack further north to cut off the Russian attack vector towards Sviatlohirsk and the town of Oskil (not the watercourse).

They are probing Yampolivka and from the NW the 3rd Assault brigade is attacking towards SE.

What I think we have seen in recent weeks are RU infiltration attempts into Lyman through the forest area east of the town but they die drone deaths.

Now the Russians have shown themselves to be experts at slipping out of encirclements but Putin is behind in the chain of events here, we guessed that and now we have proof of it.

Recently we received the two maps below from Stepnohirsk and they are grossly misleading, the Russian one thinks things are going much better than they are and is a staff map.

During a recent front visit by one of Putin’s clones, enthusiastic soldiers answered that they were attacking everywhere.

Since bad news is punished with dismissal or underwear jumps from windows, the selection of bad news up the tree is guaranteed to be tough because no one wants to get a wedgie before tumbling down from the tenth floor straight onto the asphalt. That punishment now seems to be meted out for a bit of everything so the will to survive probably makes people fudge the truth as much as they can.

Moreover, Russian army commanders still have orders for offensive and to start retreating from entire front sections is very un-Russian, you don’t live long doing that.

If 3rd AC reaches Akiivka and the southern part of the pincer works its way up towards Ivanivka, which is a few km for both, without orders for RU retreat given, it can get tight over the few bridges left when the Russian retreat (panic flight) begins.

Ukraine then knows exactly where on the map traffic jams will occur in the drone-saturated battlefield of 2026.

RU has about 12 units in the area, not all regiments, so it would cause serious negative publicity if they were shot off on the highway and a beautiful drone flyover post-massacre was done.

Not to mention what a deep hole would open in the Russian front in northern Luhansk if that plays out.

Northern Luhansk is low priority for RU and there are not many task forces behind the fronts – those units have been used first when the whip has been on for RU’s own spring offensive Putin has given clear orders about.

Just one of many dangerous situations for RU along the fronts now – good good.

It’s probably up to Sirsky if he wants to add anything from the strategic offensive reserve but 3rd AC is quite known for pushing on with what they have and making the impossible possible. They always seem to fight at a 1:5 numerical disadvantage during their own offensive operations and have clawed their way to their own excellent drone weapon.

Ukraine already smells Russian hepatitis blood in the water – very unlike them to miss something like this.

For those of you who immediately start dreaming of a greater Luhansk, this area is closest to Russia and reinforcements from the north but forcing RU back over Zherebets is already underway.

If Sirsky decides to release resources from the strategic offensive reserve and add drone capability, anything can happen.

In this context, I can really only see positive angles to getting Russia into the Baltics for Ukraine. It would relieve the pressure on them. Right now it’s the opposite – the Belarusian threat means UA has to pull units from the northern front to cover over there and you know what RU can do then – free up units for the Baltics.

Slovyansk/Kramatorsk is the target for this year’s Russian attack vectors and they are working their way forward, a bit like a flytrap and Bakhmut over that area, I guess they’ll keep at it?

Since it is a focus point, FAB bombs are raining down and it is not a fun area at all to try to defend for UA.

Something I missed when Ukraine gained fire control over all access roads to Dnepr and Crimea was that fuel shortage is more important than the water shortage which was what I highlighted.

Apparently almost all brigades get all their electricity supply from generators and if they have no fuel calm settles – no communication, no drones, no mobiles and finally no vehicles that can drive. Stril simply goes silent and indirect capabilities have no targets.

My chain was no trucks – no water – camel thirst. But gasoline and diesel might be more important anyway.

If you look at RU offensive operations posted daily on johanno1.se it looks like they have already peaked.

Zelensky has recently gone hard against Belarus who immediately backed down.

After he “destroyed” Moscow which the Russians did not like at all – they have started claiming they are fighting against the entire NATO now to soften that blow.

We are probably close to the point where Russia must act outwards and escalate, they are seriously on the defensive in Ukraine and have started importing fuel from China.

I guess escalation will come before collapse in the country so now it’s probably high risk for the Baltics in the coming months.

Hegseth has just fired the top European chief, Donahue, he probably protested all the cutbacks. He is kind of the US Rommel – an absolute legend who has been everywhere there has been fighting the last 20-25 years. The right man in the right place he absolutely was so easy to see why he was made to retire.

There is one heavy American unit left in the Baltics, a battalion in SE Estonia – if it disappears we can probably assume things will get lively so I’m keeping an eye on it.

That thing about “Russian buildup does not exist” – everything is always relative, right, and if a lot of heavy units leave the Baltics, RU needs less until those gaps are filled.

Ukraine seems to have plans for Belarus and if there is unrest in that country, there is a chance RU will have to use its strategic offensive reserve for that instead – which would be very good.

This year the risk of Russian escalation against Europe is at its highest, especially before the rainy season sometime in October.

In Ukraine, the situation is at least precarious for RU and before October Crimea is probably lost. Already now the bridge is packed with civilians leaving – the rumor is spreading like wildfire.

Don’t know if the picture is genuine, had a verified video but lost it carelessly…

This video is interesting, there is no structure at all just a flowing movement but I feel they have total control over the situation. We never reached this level in the military service, not even close. We fought according to doctrine and the unknown was the attack target, either we ran over it or died on the way.

This fight is constantly adapting to the threat in a quite interesting way – probably their suppressive fire is so accurate that it does all the work instead of, like when we just fired in the enemy’s direction with bursts and alternated advances.

They are standing right in the middle of a field in front of a Russian fortification system, a single group, and take the attack target without own losses – you hardly believe it’s true.

Rumor has it that a couple of different European countries are starting to get worried about UA’s strength and what they will do when they have beaten Russia in a fair war.

Europe never ceases to disappoint us, never fails.

The only thing we should fear is if UA loses the war or is forced to peace – then the million soldiers will take what they consider their right in Europe’s underworld.

As it looks now, they are just Europe’s most important ally whom we must get into the EU as fast as possible before they change their minds.

I usually sulk over old sins but now it’s hard to manage to stay interested when we have now reached the beginning of the end. Already in 2023 Ukraine tried this combat against oil infrastructure, then the USA and Europe slowed them down in rounds by cutting support as soon as they went too far.

They actually had everything in the toolbox already then and RU considerably less LV so the result would probably have been the same anyway, operators on the ground or one of the liberation fronts inside Russia handled it from afar.

Many dead three years later Ukraine now has sufficient own production giving them the possibility to completely ignore our good advice and honorable intentions.

One should perhaps remember that now when we cheer all successes that Ukraine probably does not forget the first four years in the near term. We owe them everything really and a bit more for all our sabotage – post-war we really must treat them well and not revert to our condescending attitude.

Don’t forget paid subscription in this summer heat – it cools you down.

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101 thoughts on “We aimed for Oskil but it was only Zherebets, June 26, 2026”

  1. MXT

    Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-06-26

    • 1310 KWIA
    • 2 Tanks
    • 5 AFVs
    • 68 Artillery systems
    • 3 MLRS
    • 4 Air defense systems
    • 1778 UAVs
    • 1 UGVs
    • 439 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
    • 9 Special equipment

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  3. 205

    Russian pressure has increased somewhat over large parts of the front. The Ukrainian pressure remains on the high plateau of at least 100 attacks per day,

    N Slobozhansky 4↘️, S Slobozhansky 8↘️, Kupyansk 5↗️, Lyman 17💥, Slovyansk 23💥↗️, Kramatorsk 1, Kostyantynivka 23💥↗️, Pokrovsk 31💥💥↗️, Oleksandrivskij 5↗️, Huliaipole 27💥💥↗️, Orikhivsk 4↗️, Prydniprovskij 0,

    Localized 148↗️, Unlocalized 109, Total 257↗️, Ratio unl/loc 0.7↘️.

  5. MXT

    ** Belarus ‘nearing completion’ in constructing military infrastructure along Ukraine’s border, Zelensky says.
    President Volodymyr Zelensky once again warned of Minsk’s “potential expansion of aggression” against Ukraine on June 25, reporting that the construction of various military infrastructure along the Belarus-Ukraine border is “nearing completion.” **
    https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-nearing-completion-in-constructing-military-infrastructure-along-ukraines-border-zelensky-says/

    1. Lynx

      I am more inclined to believe in that escalation than in the Baltics. It would both put high pressure on Ukraine and clear away the ambivalence surrounding Lukashenko. It also fits with what Finland seems to believe about a possible escalation.

      But we shall see.

      1. MXT

        Yes, I have all along believed that there is a significantly greater risk of a new large-scale attack on Ukraine from Belarus compared to Russia entering the Baltics.

    2. MacMelmac

      But will Luka get the military and the people on his side?
      Could it be that they are building up because they are afraid that when RUS throws them under the bus, they are afraid that UA will do something.

  8. MXT

    ** ❗️The 🇷🇺Russian oil refinery “LUKOIL-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez”, located in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region, has halted operations following a strike by 🇺🇦Ukrainian drones — Reuters.
    It is the fourth-largest refinery in Russia by capacity and the second-largest gasoline producer by volume.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​**

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mp6dcocaxs2y

  9. Lynx

    Thank you Johanno1 for a positive-positive review 👍🏻!

    Love the pictures from their attempt to cross the river with armored columns. I also recall that they tried again a few weeks later a few kilometers further away. Surprise, the same outcome again 😂.

    Ukraine to victory ✊🏻!

    1. johan No.1

      777 air gusts and a huge spike in lost armored vehicles when they tried to break down south – what chaos 🤣🤣🤣

      Don’t remember what the losses were but that attempt was downright embarrassing.

      Was it spring/summer 2022 already?

      1. Lynx

        Yes, that was before the Kupiansk sprint and the destruction of the 3rd Guards Division as I remember it. So summer 2022.

        They had an interview with the artillery spotter who led the operation. His group was simply in the terrain box on the other side of the water, and when they, in typical Russian fashion, had blocked the road and all access routes and stood plate to plate, the Ukrainian artillery cleaned house.

        A wonderful combination of Russian chaos and Ukrainian efficiency.

  10. ANDERS RYDEN

    I thought I would contribute a perspective on the “Baltic operation.”
    Let’s say Russia enters somewhere in the Baltics.

    In such a scenario, Belarus must fully side with Russia.

    Now, the Nordic countries are quite proactive in wanting to neutralize the Russian threat, as well as some countries on the European continent.
    When it comes to sending equipment to Ukraine, it is also up to each country to decide what should be sent.
    So it is not too far-fetched to assume that a lot of the equipment for combating strategic targets in Belarus and Kaliningrad will be sent from various NATO countries to Ukraine in such a scenario.
    Of course, the laws of war apply, and with that, Belarusian airspace will be open to Ukrainian missiles and drones.

    In this way, several countries can circumvent a parliamentary decision to go to war against Russia.
    Lukashenko has probably already figured out that this is a quite likely outcome if Russia enters the Baltics.

    Therefore, I do not believe that Russia will enter the Baltics.
    Not because Putin does not want to, but because the situation in Belarus is far too unstable to keep the country together during such a major escalation.

    1. Lynx

      Interesting angle. And we have already seen what Belarus did in connection with the full-scale invasion. The army seems to have been clear that it will only go to war if Belarus is attacked. And that it would be immoral to obey an order to attack Ukraine.

      And now apparently deactivated relay stations. This possibly increases the risk for Belarus, which is now walking a tightrope.

  11. MXT

    Off-Topic, Venezuela

    Ugh, what a tragic disaster. 🙏

    “Nearly 50,000 people have been reported missing after the twin earthquakes in Venezuela, several media outlets report, referring to a site where relatives can search for loved ones.

    Desperate relatives dig through the rubble for their missing family members. Dayana Delgado, a mother of three who is looking for her eight-year-old son, wonders where the government’s promised help is and asks why it is only her and her neighbors searching through the debris.

    – I want to know where my child is, she tells AP.

    Shock and sorrow unfold on the streets of Venezuela. A mother in Caracas collapses as her children’s bodies are wrapped in blankets and carried away.”
    https://omni.se/nara-50000-saknas-efter-skalven-vill-veta-var-mitt-barn-ar/a/zO6bn9

      2. Peter Den Större

        Fools are everywhere, the question is who gives them space. Here it was Omni – DN, Aftonbladet, Bamse, and Kamratposten all in one.

    2. johan No.1

      Well, the pro-Russians are not completely extinct yet 🤣🤣🤣

      Nice that you found something worse than my texts Dengamle, this and the appointment as a financial genius I can live on for a long time 👍

    3. fedtmule

      When I saw this on Omni this morning, I googled the cuckoo and without taking it, there wasn’t much I found. About as much as the professor has hair on his head.
      It seems like the professor desperately wants some mass media attention for his own persona and, from what I could gather, a stagnant career.

      It was a fairly contentless post spiced with a bunch of indignant platitudes and a pinch of obvious truths. It will be forgotten by the poor readers before they have even managed to click on to the next article.

  15. 205

    Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “It is no longer enough for the EU to be a market; Europe must become a real power.”

    “Distinguished authorities, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, welcome to Rome!

    Italy is pleased to host the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit Europe 2026 to discuss the future of Europe in the very place where the Treaties of Rome were signed in 1957 laying the foundations of today’s European Union.

    As we approach the seventieth anniversary of those Treaties, we must reflect on the Europe we want and need to build.

    It is clear that being a major commercial or regulatory platform is no longer enough.

    We need strategic autonomy, industrial capacity, technological sovereignty, and financial power. And Europe must be ready to use its geopolitical and geoeconomic strength.

    We want a Europe that focuses its energies on the major strategic issues where it is vital to join forces, while leaving to nation states responsibility for those areas where they can achieve better results on their own.”

    https://www.governo.it/en/articolo/president-meloni-s-video-message-fii-priority-europe-2026-summit/32125

    1. 205

      Tested iPhone, Chrome and Safari, as well as now Chrome on PC (Windows): it is not possible to edit a comment where an image has been uploaded via the upload function.

       

        1. 205

          Could not upload the image again, or paste it and save (in the clipboard) but to link the image again and re-edit the linked image from X. But don’t know why mXt is so fond of X?

          1. MXT

            Linked images work regardless of where they come from as long as the link goes to a real image. You need to create a Bluesky and upload there.

            Pasting a copied image directly from the clipboard does not work in the comments.

             

    4. johan No.1

      I couldn’t agree more, she is clear and feisty.

      Then it is of course important that Europe stops at the right level, there will definitely be forces that want a fourth empire.

      2. johan No.1

        The Third Reich did that too, you had to choose between gas or carbon monoxide poisoning 😀

        Personally, I think a lot is going in the right direction with the EU, but there are forces trying to make the EU more authoritarian towards the citizens, and if you find yourself at the top, it is quite tempting to start subjugating other countries with various justifications without the citizens caring because they are better off.

        For peace in our time, a strong EU is required that can project overwhelming power without using it – then we reach the nirvana that Trump-Xi-Putin try to trick us into believing they strive for.

  17. johan No.1

    Anders Ryden,

    There have been many twists and turns regarding the Baltics from my side, to say the least, so the scenario is as follows.

    (There is also a new factor we have just seen that I will get to).

    Belarus is mobilizing and projecting a threat against Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania. Belarus currently has the status of a “neutral state” in the eyes of the USA and Europe; if they do not shoot first, they are not a participating party and only tie down troops.

    Russia will therefore attack from Belarus’s northern border from inside Russia and then along the Baltics’ border northwards; Belarus is a defensive (neutral) anchor that ties down our troops.

    Already today, Ukraine has had to weaken the northern front to cover against Belarus.

    Poland must tie down its units there, and Lithuania as well.

    Belarus will never participate in the war – this has been a clear point in every post about the Baltics.

    —

    Fast forward to now, Zelensky seems to have a plan with Belarus. So far, Trump and Xi have visited Belarus, so we know what they want, right?

    Europe turned its back on the citizens a few years ago, and Ukraine has had strict orders absolutely not to attack the country – a total red card.

    Now Zelensky: has met the opposition leader, threatened Luka to compliance, and threatens to run over the country. Prominent members of the Belarusian defense forces have said no to war, and Lukashenko has had to completely back down. All this is seen by the citizens, and they see weakness.

    Putin CANNOT attack the Baltics AND handle a revolution in Belarus – so the new thing is that Ukraine might get a liberation started there that ruins the Russian plan, who knows, and we will see.

    But that Ukraine is actively working with resistance movements in the country we know, and that the Kalinouski regiment also works in the country when they are not killing Russians in Ukraine we also know.

    —

    In the long run, if Belarus falls, it is the beginning of the end for the Russian empire – probably the signal for many constituent republics to declare freedom.

    Putin will never survive that.

    —

    So the question is what will come first, I have assumed that Europe does not want unrest in Belarus, but it seems we have loosened Zelensky’s reins as he has started up now in the past week?

  19. johan No.1

    Good match yesterday, took a quarter of an hour to find a local TV channel and Spanish commentators aren’t as fun but it had to do. On Youtube there are hundreds of scam channels claiming to live stream, a lot of swearing there.

    The first goal was a bit slow and also nice but we ended up probably at the top in the 3rd place ranking in the end?

    Saw this morning that we are going to play against the frog eaters on Tuesday at 17:00 my time, will try to make it to some sports bar and watch the French get knocked out. Maybe the Norwegians can knee-injure enough players for us today?

    I think they played pretty well, wasn’t Japan the favorite?

    1. johan No.1

      This is a bit too big for me in scope so I never managed to figure out if we still qualified in 3rd place ranking with a loss against Japan, it looked like when we were down 1-0 that we were still on the list, could other matches have tipped it?

      Was I worried for nothing 😶

      I also have to find a sports bar that accepts ten-year-olds but I think that at five in the afternoon if you also order food it should be okay?

      What has happened to all the football violence, nowadays all supporter groups run around doing some typical national thing, the Italians break baguettes and the French retaliate by breaking spaghetti. The Norwegians have come up with some rowing exercise that is half a year old and pretend they have always had it. The Dutch double loss is quite boring but the Scots in big championships is uplifting to say the least – the tartan army is divine and they always spread only joy around them except when they have to play against England.

      Things like this are good for the international community.

              1. MXT

                I think it’s enough if you show the wax tablet that Alexander the Great signed for you in 323 (before Christ). There he praises you and certifies that you are an honorable citizen who serves him well.

                That was when you tricked him into believing that the elephants you sold to him would bring him continued victories and take him all the way to China’s eastern border.

                You didn’t mention that they were lame and crippled.

                It ended in disaster at the Hyphasis River when both the elephants and thus the soldiers refused to continue.

                Two years later in Babylon, Alexander was gone, but you still have the wax tablet!

                1. MXT

                  Historians are still trying to figure out what really happened.

                  Tired and inadequate elephants have not yet been considered.

  20. MXT

    State of emergency in Crimea! 💪👍

    Wondering what they mean by “to handle economic issues”? Are they planning to start confiscating money and fuel from businesses and private individuals?

    “The Russian administration in occupied Crimea has declared a state of emergency following several Ukrainian airstrikes on the peninsula, reports AFP. ‘This decision was mainly made to handle economic issues,’ writes the Russian-appointed governor Sergei Aksyonov on Telegram. There is a fuel shortage and power outages in Crimea, as Ukraine has attacked infrastructure and oil facilities in the area.”

    https://omni.se/a/d4qPXz

      1. MXT

        Yes, it looks dark for them.

        Still have my ticket to “Crimea Beach Party!”

        Sooner or later it will come in handy!

        But I think the curse that rests over 205 has now also struck me, because I couldn’t upload it! 😱

        I think it’s a PDF so maybe it’s not so strange after all.

         

  25. MXT

    Oh, how sorry I feel for them! They have to queue! 😄 I otherwise thought it was a Russian/Soviet national sport?

    (Ok, the children are still innocent for now but at least they avoid being bombed to death).

    “I wasn’t going to publish this but a few followers urge me to.

    A young Russian mother (her daughter is blurred out in the back seat), completely loses it after spending hours queuing for fuel. But now no gas, no battery and no keyfob

    Good news is her tyres and lips are still inflated as normal.” Film:

    https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3mp7bdbg5d22o

  26. MXT

    Thinking about whether it’s worth watching a bunch of Norwegians sitting and rowing or if there is something else to entertain oneself with.

    By the way, is the paddle world championship also happening, or has interest in it declined?

  31. johan No.1

    Lynx, the discussion above about the Siversky Donets fiasco.

    Good heavens, what one could write about this if one had the time, go back to different events and go through them 😍😍😍

    Somewhere I think we have the skeleton clear in our minds – we roughly know how everything went and really can’t go wrong, but then you need to fill in all the gaps, the puzzle is half finished.

    Taking one post per exciting battle.

  32. johan No.1

    There is a new group of disinformers on Twitter.

    I think they are Indians and content farming more than a Russian influence operation.

    They have names similar to others and post sensational news with pictures and video clips, all AI.

    Unfortunately, they have learned, but since you follow the maps, you know immediately that it is not true.

    Unplug India?

    1. Umlaut

      Yes, really. I who usually experience him as childish, but Kajsa Ekis Ekman’s debating style is like taken from someone who has just discovered communism in ninth grade and become a red-hot Marxist.

    2. MXT

      Good God… Can’t she just move to Russia? Preferably yesterday?

      Often one suspects that they are paid by the Kremlin, but I also believe that there are plenty of idiots and some think it’s a good idea to be contrarian. Of course, this is because they don’t have a large audience, but if you take the wrong side, you can at least be sure to get support from all the idiots.

      Tucker Carlson is an example.

       

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