This post, which is meant to be my final word on the Baltics, became so long that it will be in two parts, to be read together as I only cut it in the middle.
Last week, Ukraine sent 600 drones and other devices of various sizes towards Russia in response to their attack, which was a “thank you for the ceasefire on May 9.” Zelensky made a promise of proportional retaliation, also called a comeback.
Around Moscow, RU has built several layers of air defense with exactly EVERYTHING they have in their arsenal + what they are trying to develop, a couple of hundred different systems or more protecting a small geographic area.
Moscow’s refinery was hit several times for the first time in the war.
The total number of drone attacks on refineries since the start of the war is now up to 146 by the way; I have a small list I update every time a refinery burns, an Easter list of joy.
I don’t think Russia can handle another year of this – the strategic drone war combined with their own offensive losing steam and Ukraine’s offensive operations increasing sharply also make the situation on the ground in Ukraine more than worrying for the staff, even though there is probably some delay in understanding. No one wants to deliver bad news up the chain, a natural filter.
The conclusion I want to reach – if Russia intends to do as they always have and try to increase the level of violence when the current level does not give the desired result, this needs to be done this year because by 2027 it may be too late. An escalation also needs to come before the mud season rolls in sometime in October, unless one wants to wait until winter, then Europe gets another half year to prepare.
The other leg of this assumption is that Europe has now, albeit late, probably understood that we should learn from Ukraine after seeing how MENA was devastated by Iran and a platoon of Ukrainian anti-drone operators suddenly was more valuable than a ton of gold, revered by a unanimous MENA. Within a couple of years max, we will have the same level as Ukraine on our digital battlefield, telewarfare, drone weapons and anti-drone weapons – I discussed this a bit the other day and why the old zoo of dinosaurs has slowed things down so far. We have had a great discussion with Swedish defense Twitter now after Aurora 2026.
All else equal, over time Belarus will turn to the EU, a people’s revolution Ukraine is working against by the way – guess where the presidential candidate has just been…
Hungary was just lost to RU and Transnistria is not far away.
Kaliningrad will become demilitarized/autonomous – there is a strong movement in the enclave for that.
And when Ukraine is done with RU’s fleet in the Caspian Sea, they will go after the Baltic Sea fleet.
After the recent posts about Operation Baltics, which apparently will become recurring from my side, there have been some discussions in the thread on johanno1.se and especially two comments have been put forward that I now intend to take a whole post to reason about to better support my argument.
First, the calibration – will Ukraine get there first and win its war or will we fortify the today undefended area in the Baltics enough, probably nothing will happen because that threshold is too high for Russia.
Undefended vast forests can get you far without alarms ringing, and if we don’t show our fangs there is always the risk that RU gets a feeling.
I want to introduce one more level – all terrain north of the Daugava. Need to check the post from 2025 but I recall it was included, it has slipped into black and white to become exactly the whole Baltics or little green men.
Daugava is a very attractive natural barrier.
Suwalki is an artificial barrier that is worthless if Kaliningrad falls, and in Lithuania there is no corresponding natural undefended obstacle.
The Lithuanians have their capital near the Belarus border and such places tend to be defended.
So everyone who thinks “a few miles of forest in eastern Baltics, why bother” must not forget that the drive time Daugavpils – Riga is under three hours.
The risk for a conflict zone in the Baltics SHOULD be over when the mud season rolls in PROVIDED we don’t dawdle with preparations.
A Russian DNA seems to be drawn so that at the slightest sign of weakness they just throw themselves over the victim but that they refrain from strength they feel is not a hot air balloon.
1. If Russia in any form attacks the Baltics, NATO will immediately, at the request of one or several Baltic states, activate Article 5 which in the long run will neutralize the threat to the Baltics. Individual states will also be ready to act outside NATO if needed.
2. If Russia in any form attacks the Baltics, NATO/EU/Europe will immediately go over Kaliningrad and neutralize the Baltic Sea fleet – that battle will be devastating for Russia which in the long run neutralizes the threat to the Baltics.
This will be a very long post, perhaps my longest, which will go off in different directions which you have hopefully started to get used to, but try to get through it – it is well supported partly with information but we also have various events since early 2025 to fall back on, things that were incredible until they no longer were – the probability of various reversals has been adjusted upwards.
We have a rather strange discussion right now where the Supreme Commander and MUST warn that Russia will try to occupy islands in the Baltic Sea soon but the Baltics I am quite alone in promoting.
I don’t understand why.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ob-varnar-ryssland-kan-testa-nato-inom-kort
The Baltics are starting to get a bit worried though
https://www.svd.se/a/d4v96J/putin-kan-testa-natos-artikel-5-redan-under-sommaren
The most important thing, if you want peace you must prepare for war, before the war comes. I added the last part myself because it seems necessary if you are to follow defense Twitter’s screams right now when their exercise just became an exercise in humiliation and degradation as they made the mistake of letting the Ukrainians be OPFOR – they probably won’t do that again.
When the US declared war on Iran by not declaring war at all and just bombing the country to pieces, the discussion immediately split into two camps. I myself believe the Iranian regime should be replaced for more peace in the world and that it is far from over yet. For example, it is rumored that the Iranian army has started fighting with the IRGC in some places and we know that Israel/USA have not directly fought any of the higher army commanders, only the IRGC, the mullah regime and Basij.
But there are worrying details in this that possibly point to a hidden agenda – the US/Israel let militias from surrounding countries in and tricked Iran into fighting oil infrastructure in MENA by first starting to bomb it in Iran. We have gone through this and you all read everything.
The other camp is those who feel the US has completely failed, it won’t work because everything is harder, Iran fights back and similar reasoning. One can at least go so far as to say that the US absolutely has not succeeded to date in neutralizing Iran so that they still pose a major threat in the region. At least Israel is starting to get worried but the laws of war apply to them too and now they chose to join forces with Trump who in three months totally wrecked what looked promising – that the rest of MENA saw Israel as a stabilizing force in the region and wanted cooperation.
There is no point in trying to guess if this was Trump’s plan all along with Putin and Xi because it is far too speculative.
The blue team USA (or red team depending on which country you are in) which according to the collective expertise is supposed to have the world’s strongest military attacked a country of 90 million that has indeed engaged in terror and military buildup but has not been involved in high-intensity warfare since the 1980s, and certainly not against a high-tech opponent before. However, one can assume they tried to learn from the Iraq wars?
My guess was that the US engaged in some military deception during the negotiations so that Iran would not deliver a first strike against their naval forces in the area – the fact is they did not, the Iranians themselves have said that the negotiations would have continued on March 6 but the war intervened. If you add an Iranian first strike all else being equal, it would have been preferable for the bad side, with a high probability that they were faked out.
But as soon as Russia – Europe comes up, the conviction is rock solid that we will first have a decision chain that works like a well-oiled bicycle wheel and then through the right decisions and appropriate use of force relatively quickly decimate the Russian threat so we can restore the Baltics their statutory international right to freedom and eternal happiness.
Russia is if not a high-tech opponent at least a technological opponent but above all they have gained intimate practical work experience over four years, China has also tried to bridge their technological blind spots since 2023 and we have seen improvements.
We saw Russia’s digital battlefield go from being unusable at all to working very well from 2024 onwards – their kill-chain is fully operational with all indirect capabilities even though we have guessed that they will have problems in mobile combat, which we hope to see this summer.
I think it was first during the Kursk offensive where an MRAP from UA rolling on a country road barely survived a salvo from artillery – that was the turning point because before that the salvo came at best a few minutes after the vehicles had passed and preferably 200m to the side.
The question we cannot answer yet – is Europe an equal opponent or alternatively better than Russia?
When countries go to war both sides believe they hold the best hand, then it hits and you get a receipt – if you are a bit lucky it is enough to fine-tune.
The most important thing, is Europe mentally ready to go to war with Russia?
Russia is under heavy pressure in Ukraine but they are fighting against the world’s best defense force today – recently various high-ranking US military officials have praised the Ukrainian miracle, for example their Delta which “is better than what we have in the US”.
Hit to target from detection is now so short that it is almost ridiculous.
Ukraine has a defense force of perhaps +1.2 million and has, as you know since 2022, the world’s best shooting according to Johan No.1 – we have seen it countless times. They have a strong will to defend their potato fields and a very large untapped goose with Russia. The number of dead, wounded, and psychologically incapacitated is staggering but Russia has met its superior man/woman/other gender identity in its brotherly people in Ukraine.
There are two sides to that coin where the other side is the Russian defense force which now has a well-functioning drone weapon, painful practical work experience, a digital battlefield and in addition has begun building a strategic reserve which they equip with newly manufactured materiel. We can assume that this reserve has been trained by veterans from Ukraine.
This offensive strategic reserve has all the traditional branches of weapons to then be topped off with the drone weapon which we partly do not have ourselves but also get absolutely crushed by when it is tested as OPFOR during exercises since 2025 as we have not yet figured out how to defend ourselves against it.
So what is the Baltics?
According to Russia it belongs to them – the explanatory models are of course completely off the wall but what is interesting is what motives the attacking party has.
Russia is also trying just like us to find the most advantageous geographically dominant terrain they preferably want to stand in when this war is finally over – Johan No.1 wants a demilitarized Kaliningrad, a disintegrating Russia into ten new countries and a free Belarus joining the EU. The Belarusians almost managed to gain their freedom but Europe chose to turn away so Russia could send in the FSB and Rosgvardia for some disciplining – the first missed opportunity for us not to end up at war again.
By the way, exciting that Ukraine has met the real “presidential candidate” in exile.
Russia knows they cannot get Poland because Germany is on the wrong side of history today according to them.
It is enough to look at the map to understand that the Baltics are a geographical big win for Russia – if they succeed in reincorporating the Baltics into the Russian empire their influence over the Baltic Sea will suddenly be heavenly, they will have a much more pleasant land border against what they perceive as a united Europe on the rise that is starting to become seriously troublesome.
Kaliningrad is vulnerable and the Baltic states have already cut the land route, now that we are starting to board the shadow fleet the step to a full naval blockade of Kaliningrad is not very big – if Russia loses Kaliningrad all else being equal they lose the little dominance they have in the Baltic Sea and they will have to run the Finnish gauntlet again if there is war – this has historically rarely led to great empire victories, mostly burning sinking ships.
This is their reality regardless of what we think about the issue – now it is not us and our reality that will start this war, if it comes.
According to previous posts, we have two developments running in parallel – Ukraine is slowly starting to win its war and Russia is preparing for an escalation in some form against us. Which one comes first we do not know and Ukraine cannot be expected to take more responsibility than they do today, they are pushing at the pace they can handle. We keep our fingers crossed that they get there first but we must prepare for war – anything else is negligence even for the dinosaurs in the defense forces who have had a salary all these years precisely for a scenario like this.
Threat and escalation steps
Since we by definition have chosen to be reactive we will have to run along the entire Russian escalation ladder.
This is one of the absolutely most important parts of Russian warfare where they constantly try to get below the level that forces the opponent to make a decision, they spread disinformation, their allies in the opposing team slow down all attempts to make decisions and then above all the threats – constantly threatening with overwhelming force if the opponent by any chance would think to meet proportionally.
2022 – 2024 this worked excellently in Ukraine, after having worked even better in 2014. Europe consistently did too little too late which prolonged the war by several years – this is a reality we have to relate to but it is also some indication of how we will act under pressure for Russia who make their analyses based on history.
The Germans’ “we don’t even send standing helmets” was downright tragic.
For Russia, this subversive weapon is still functionally operational and has a probability of working that is probably sufficiently attractive.
Now today in 2026, we at johanno1.se were right that Hormuz would be closed in case of conflict, with the difference that they did not sink any ship in the middle of the channel – it is Pearson’s book that turned out to be correct again, which is what I base my entire analysis on. Many have argued in the past year that Hormuz would never be closed, but now here we are with cut oil supplies. It was a bit messy, for a while it was Trump who was supposed to close the strait – that Pearson had not predicted.
The Iran war, some minor conflicts Thailand – Cambodia, India – Pakistan, the Ukraine war in its fourth year, enormous subversive activities and sabotage against Europe with a new axis Russia – China – USA beginning to form after both Trump and now Putin have visited/are visiting Xi in China.
In the post about Xi-Trump a few weeks ago, we assumed that Taiwan would be up, and it didn’t take many days before Trump couldn’t hold back, so we have almost a receipt that China-USA are reasoning in terms of dividing spheres of interest between themselves now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyp9mk3mrgo
Trump has his full focus directed against us – they are pulling their spearhead away from Europe along with critical (one might guess) staff functions, besides that Trump and Xi only visit the “wrong” countries in Europe – Russia, Belarus, Hungary, Bosnia, Slovakia.
It’s not just the artillery battalion below that won’t come, probably also the Stryker brigade from Germany besides the brigade that was to go to Poland for rotation but was canceled, then staff functions are to be removed – which ones I don’t know.
If you ask me, there will be more that Trump soon urgently needs elsewhere, and I think Trump’s promise of more troops in Poland is evasive – of course, I could be wrong.
After all the above, it becomes a bit easier for me to build a credible escalation ladder;
1. Blocking the Baltic Sea is an early measure, sink 2 ships from the shadow fleet in the middle of the Denmark channel so no ship enters the Baltic Sea that is not already in the Baltic Sea. Russia immediately accuses us of being guilty and points out that Sweden has previously boarded many ships – this is a bold act of war that Russia will consider for a while before responding proportionally.
They also mention in passing that the ships unfortunately transported *(insert any unstable explosive, today’s nitroglycerin)* so it is absolutely impossible to salvage them – whatever you do, don’t touch them, buying time.
Since Ukraine has bombed Russian port installations for export and especially Sweden now boards shadow fleet ships increasingly, they don’t have much to lose. Suitable Russian ships pass this channel daily.
2. Russian media announces that there are tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad which they cannot guarantee won’t accidentally explode if a Polish boot happens to cross that border – media floods with maps showing fallout and blast radius where they cheat all the way to Berlin.
By the way, Belarus now has nuclear weapons.
China announces exercises in Belarus, a company of SOF with some dozen officers from the general staff lands under full military honors – the purpose is to prevent anyone from conducting acts of war against Belarus as that would draw China into the war.
Putin really tried but the only thing he got over to Kaliningrad was a regular rifle platoon of Chinese with two colonels Xi still intended to dismiss – it is widely reported in Russian media networks that China is in Kaliningrad in a peaceful joint exercise for great world peace.
3. Russia floods the media with its nuclear threats as usual and that it is proportional retaliation if Europe conducts acts of war against the Russian motherland – for example in the Baltics which everyone knows is Russian but absolutely across the borders into today’s Russia – then it will explode immediately. Satan 2 will this time not explode in the silo or crash during flight, promises Putin, they will all hit their targets. Exactly how many Putin is vague about because he knows he soon only has one left unless the engineers work weekends and nothing burns down.
4. Information about how many Geran drones Russia could fly over Europe starts appearing in the media and the range is exaggerated so not even Lisbon is safe. Overflights with +20 drones are carried out a couple of times where after the second time we decide to shoot them down with our top fighters, and manage to bring down seven.
Now Russia has proof that we will sacrifice our ground and airborne missiles during large drone operations, and thanks us for the confirmation. They had guessed that because that was how Ukraine acted in the first years where every troop commander had orders to show maximum strength until they realized it was a good way to run out of ammunition.
Or MENA where the Gulf states fired up to 8 Patriots at one drone or missile in the first days.
(During the first major Geran operation in Europe when air defense plotted the routes and saw that our major cities were the targets, there was as expected a highly trigger-happy defensive fire, and then immediate screaming about ammunition shortage).
Russia explains from time to time that indirect attacks from Europe against Russian targets including the Baltic fleet and their motherland in the Baltics will be met with proportional 500 Geran drones/2 days – they cite Ukraine as evidence in the matter.
5. Along with this, Putin pushes for peace in our time together with Trump and Xi where he dearly and honorably promises to de-escalate all the above as soon as Ukraine is made to take a pause – the children have suffered for too long now. Putin also promises to release LNG and oil at half price, he calls it a peace discount for Europe that will last over five years. Since our LNG stocks have started burning and the leadership from Azerbaijan has been subjected to sabotage, Germany is beginning to air that they will have big problems this winter without LNG, especially since it seems to be an El Nino year giving a brutally cold winter in January-February. Bad timing there, even the weather is against us, the German energy minister feels, is this God’s punishment for our attempt at a better world in 1939 that no one liked, he thinks gloomily.
Trump leaks that it is important for his midterm elections, and China that world trade and peace must prevail.
There are several alternatives here in an increasing scale that are adapted to the situation –
-RU withdraws to the old ATO line and declares a ceasefire as a first attempt. If that doesn’t work, they leave all of Ukraine and proclaim Peace in Our Time where the USA and China immediately start negotiations with Ukraine with binding demands that Ukraine lets the weapons rest.
The purpose of point 5 is to remove Ukraine from the equation by giving the citizens enough so that they choose peace, making it politically locked to try to resume hostilities for Zelensky and Budanov.
6. When Estonia and Latvia (which are without government) start calling their allies about infiltration deep into the Baltics, Putin flatly denies and claims that these are local resistance movements, on the same day there are many demonstrations with Russian citizens around the Baltics who are tired of all the oppression, hatred, and threats.
“We want freedom” it says on the placards and Putin threatens military intervention if a hair is bent on their heads.
All films are clipped so social media is flooded with older protesters who are bloodied and hit in the head – the Balts’ attempt to explain that it was not their riot police delivering the blows is drowned in the Russian film storm.
6. In larger ports in Europe, ships sink or misnavigate and block harbor entrances, shipping companies come up with a flood of excuses.
7. After the most valuable soft resources in the Baltic Fleet have left for Murmansk, and a couple of surface combatants have arrived in the Baltic Sea from the Northern Fleet, the fleet leaves the quay and positions itself around the Baltic Sea
(a classic from the Cold War – a smaller submarine surfaces in the current and announces that if the Swedish government does not surrender, a couple of tactical nuclear charges will self-detonate in two hours).
They remain under radio silence with open missile hatches that reach all European capitals, Putin is clear that they are only there to protect the shadow fleet.
8. On Åland, Fårö, the large islands off Estonia and on Russian islands in the Gulf of Finland, activity is reported which the Russians flatly deny. MUST says it is coastal missiles, LV missiles, MANPADS and drone groups that have landed with naval spetsnaz as close protection delivered by the shadow fleet and fishing boats.
Apparently the Russians had hidden lots of weapons at their Åland consulate, and the entire embassy staff was replaced with operators.
The Swedes had played it safe and reinforced Gotland, and the Danes Bornholm, but the other islands were undefended since Åland is demilitarized and the Balts themselves are responsible for their islands.
After a quick analysis, it is concluded that together with the Russian Baltic Fleet, the Baltic Sea is to be considered impassable for anything other than surface combatants for the time being.
9. Ships from the shadow fleet position themselves around all of Europe in international waters with a surface combatant or submarine from the Northern Fleet as company, Ukraine contacts us confirming that these ships probably have Geran warheads onboard.
10. Putin threatens that “all internet traffic and electricity transmission you have under the water surface around all of Europe we can cut whenever we want.” During 2026 the British shadowed several GUGI ships over their cables, and in the Baltic Sea we have already had 13 cable breaks since 2022 so no sensible analyst believes it is an empty threat.
12. Putin threatens that “your nuclear power plants, hydroelectric plants and electrical infrastructure really look vulnerable, hope you don’t have any accidents this autumn now that it’s going to be a bitterly cold winter.”
13. In several countries in Europe, the opposition demands new elections and demonstrations against incumbent governments reach storm strength.
Left, right and Islamists all simultaneously take to the streets to shout out their core issues.
The gangs go to war with each other, and the criminal clans want more of everything.
I have surely forgotten something but roughly these are the escalation steps before full conflict where in the twilight phase it increases to direct sabotage and actual acts of war but which are still somewhat in a gray zone.
Post two will come on Friday.
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All-time high unlocalized attacks likely carried out by probably the best army in the world with a record of 145. At the same time, the heavy Russian pressure remains, 172, focused on Pokrovsk, with very intense attack pressure.
The ratio increased to 0.84.
N Slobozhansky 4↘️
S Slobozhansky 11💥
Kupyansk 9💥↗️
Lyman 11
Slovyansk 8
Kramatorsk 3
Kostjantynivka 15💥↘️
Pokrovsk 66💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 1
Huliaipole 35💥💥
Orikhivsk 9💥↗️
Prydniprovskij 0
Localized 172🇷🇺
Unlocalized 145🇺🇦↗️
Total 317↗️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.84↗️
💥💪🏻!
👍
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-28
1160 KWIA
1 Tank
7 AFVs
42 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
1560 UAVs
7 UGVs
261 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
3 Special equipment
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU Reports:
68 airstrikes
Good morning, yesterday’s!
😄 Have Facebook with the AFU report still open and sometimes forget to reload the page, and combined with poor memory, I miss that it’s the same numbers as the day before.
Adjusted now.
**🇺🇦Hundreds of arms companies from around the world are joining the “Test in Ukraine” program to test their inventions in combat conditions and get feedback from the military, — Business Insider Manufacturers of drones, robotic complexes and EW equipment are literally lining up to test their weapons.**
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mmuc6v2auk2w
**The amount of destroyed Russian trucks and other vehicles along the main supply routes in Ukraine’s South is mind-boggling. We are talking about more than 100 destroyed vehicles in a matter of around 2 weeks, and this is only what has been published. The number is certainly far higher.
The main focus of Ukrainian mid-range drones are the highway connecting the Russian-occupied cities of Donetsk, Mariupol, Melitopol and Dzhankoy. Russian supplies have been disrupted to the extent that fuel rationing and price hiking has started in Crimea, Ukraine’s most southern region. ** https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mmubdwz2ck2p
Det går bra nu. 😄
**‼️ Russia: Major Clothing “retailer FunDay has closed about 50 stores.” 👉 “According to one source, the retailer is asking for a rent discount, and if it doesn’t receive one, it notifies the counterparty of the store’s closure .”**
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mmuajbhpws2j
**⛽️❌ We are recording fuel problems in occupied Crimea. This is likely related to AFU operation called Logistical Lockdown of the Russian Army, – Exilenova**
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mmuakhrkis23
OPSEC has gone far when the opponent gets to name the operation.
Update: Misread.
Article in Kyiv Independent:
Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced on May 27 that Ukraine was launching a “logistical lockdown” program against Russia by intensifying its medium-range strike campaign.
“Our goal is to increase the pressure on the Russians in the rear even further and prevent them from carrying out active assault operations,” the minister said on Telegram.
Ukrainian forces have significantly expanded their medium-range strike capabilities, regularly hitting Russian military targets 20 to 300 kilometers (10 to 180 miles) behind the front line, both inside Russia and in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Targets have included high-value air defense systems, command centers, and facilities belonging to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
“While in October the enemy lost 67 soldiers per square kilometer of advance, in April that number had risen to 179,” Fedorov said.
“Russia is suffering record losses: over 35,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded every month — and we continue to pick up the pace.”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-intensify-middle-strikes-as-fedorov-unveils-logistical-lockdown-against-russia
The War in Iran
”
On the night leading into Thursday, Iran and the USA have attacked each other militarily around the Strait of Hormuz. Two unnamed sources told AP that American forces shot down at least four Iranian drones that posed a threat to their forces and shipping in the strait.
The US Central Command is said to have responded by bombing an Iranian military base, where a fifth drone was reportedly about to be launched from.
From the Iranian side, there are reports that they fired at four ships attempting to pass through the strait.
“They were warned, but after ignoring the warning, warning shots were fired at them, forcing them to turn back,” reports the state-run Iranian news agency Irib.
Kuwait also reports that it responded to missile and drone attacks during the night.”
https://omni.se/usa-kallor-havdar-sjalvforsvar-efter-nya-attacker/a/8p97nE
“The nighttime attacks between the USA and Iran should not be seen as an escalation of the war or as an end to the ongoing ceasefire. This is stated by an unnamed American official to NBC News.
During the morning, both Iran and the USA have accused each other of attacks. Iranian forces are said to have fired at four ships in the Strait of Hormuz, after which the American military reportedly responded by bombing an airbase. According to the source, the attacks are limited and are seen from the American side as self-defense, since Iranian forces were assessed to pose a threat to both American military and commercial shipping in the strait. The source also states that neither civilian nor military targets were damaged in the Iranian attacks.
The fighting takes place while Washington and Tehran are trying to negotiate a framework to end the war. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump dismissed reports that the USA had “promised” Iran to withdraw and lift the blockade in the strait.”
https://omni.se/amerikansk-kalla-nattens-strider-inte-en-eskalering/a/OkEqp3
“The rising energy prices and their impact on Americans will not pressure Donald Trump into a faster deal with Iran, he says according to Financial Times.
During a cabinet meeting at the White House, he says that Americans understand the reasons for the war.
– They understand that Iran simply cannot have nuclear weapons. I do it for the world, I’m not doing it just for us.
Trump also accuses Iran of dragging out a peace deal while waiting for the US midterm elections in November, hoping to get better terms, writes The Guardian.
– They think they will wait me out, you know, ‘we’re waiting him out, he has midterms.’”
https://omni.se/trump-pressas-inte-av-ekonomin-amerikanerna-forstar-varfor-vi-krigar/a/zO4Qwq
“Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, IRGC, has launched an attack on a US military base in response to the US assault during the night. This is reported by the Iranian state TV channel Irib, according to AFP.
The IRGC does not specify which American base was attacked, but during the morning several Iranian missiles and drones have targeted Kuwaiti airspace.
“The enemy knows that aggression will not go unanswered,” says a statement from the IRGC. They also write that the attack is a response to “this morning’s aggression,” where the USA bombed an Iranian airbase near the Strait of Hormuz.
Two American sources earlier this morning told AP that the US military has shot down at least four Iranian drones.”
https://omni.se/revolutionsgardet-har-slagit-till-mot-usa-bas/a/8p97r1
“Stock market heading for new decline after the night’s attacks
The Stockholm stock exchange looks set to continue falling for the third day in a row as Thursday’s trading begins. Pre-market trading at IG Markets indicates a decline for OMXS30 of nearly 0.5 percent.
The development is in line with Asia’s major stock exchanges, which are falling this morning after reports of new attacks from the USA and Iran during the night. The new attacks are causing oil prices to turn upwards, several media note. Brent crude rises around 3 percent to about 97 dollars a barrel, while American WTI crude is up about the same amount to 91.60 dollars.
US futures trading also indicates a decline when Wall Street opens this afternoon.
The radiotherapy company Elekta reported figures for the latest quarter this morning. Revenue and order intake were lower than analysts expected, while profit was higher.
The text is being updated.”
https://omni.se/borsen-mot-ny-nedgang-efter-nattens-attacker/a/2pPJdv
Ukrainian top officer: The war could turn soon
Over the next six months, Ukraine has the chance to take the initiative in the war against Russia. This is stated by Ukrainian Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky in an interview with Reuters.
Biletsky, who leads the third Ukrainian army corps, believes that the Russian army is exhausted and lacks the ability to make any major breakthroughs in the war. Ukraine therefore has the chance to put itself in a good position ahead of possible negotiations with Russia, Biletsky claims.
– More precisely, I believe the coming six months are critical, says the top officer.
Biletsky is a former politician and founder of the far-right party National Corps. He also founded the controversial Azov Battalion, which over the years has had Nazi connections.
https://omni.se/ukrainsk-toppofficer-kriget-kan-vanda-inom-kort/a/wrv00P
So nice that Omni manages to link Ukraine’s defensive war with Nazism. I wonder who else usually does that?
+1
Yes, completely unnecessary of them. I was considering whether I should censor that part out.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent a letter to Donald Trump and the US Congress, writes the Ukrainian president on X.
“It is quite unusual for the leader of another country to write to both the US president and Congress at the same time. But the situation requires action, quick and effective action,” writes Zelenskyy.
Specifically, the letter contains an appeal for the US to send more ammunition for the Patriot air defense system, writes TT. Ukraine is also reportedly asking for support for other American weapons systems that it uses in the war against Russia.
https://omni.se/zelenskyjs-drag-skickade-brev-till-trump/a/L4PeWJ
😄
“The Russian central bank and other financial institutions will, according to a new law, be able to shoot down Ukrainian drones, reports the Financial Times.
Banks will be able to equip themselves with jammers and air defense systems. Staff will also be allowed to carry weapons. This is stated by Anatoly Aksakov of the Duma’s finance committee to Russian RBC.
The measures will not be state-funded.
– In this way, Putin makes the oligarchs pay, says military expert Johan Huovinen to DN.”
https://omni.se/ryska-banker-ska-kunna-skjuta-ner-dronare/a/j0Lpz9
😂😂
Off-Topic, EU-China
Good that they are starting to take competition from China seriously.
“The EU will increase trade measures against China to protect entire sectors of Europe’s industry from Chinese competition. This is stated by the European Commission’s Vice President Stéphane Séjourné to the Financial Times.
– We will use safeguard clauses in a more general way for entire sectors and not just for individual companies or raw materials, he says.
He points out sectors such as chemicals, metals, and green technology as the most vulnerable.
Brussels sees an “existential” threat from Chinese imports and the new measures will be discussed at a special meeting on Friday, the newspaper writes.” https://omni.se/eu-ska-bredda-kinatullar-mot-existentiellt-hot/a/d4Lpmz
A note is that around Kiruna, according to experts, there are Europe’s largest deposits of rare earth metals, which alone would cover about 30% of Europe’s needs.
And it is also claimed that there is some kind of company in the area that is quite skilled in ore mining.
😍 According to Ekot, Zelensky is in Uppsala where he is supposed to have a joint press conference with Kristersson. According to so far unconfirmed reports, it is about a donation of Jas39 Gripen 😍!
https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/uppgifter-zelenskyj-ar-i-sverige
Sounds good! Finally! 👍👍👍👍
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Sweden and will participate in a press conference with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson today, the government writes in a press release.
At the press conference at 1 PM, Kristersson will present news about an “international aviation cooperation.” According to Aftonbladet’s information, it concerns a donation of fighter jets of the Jas 39 C/D model to Ukraine. The newspaper writes that the heads of state will also begin negotiations on a future deal involving the Jas 39E model.”
https://omni.se/kalla-zelenskyj-ar-i-sverige/a/0pLkag
Monitored by several media outlets:
https://www.svd.se/a/GxBnKq/uppgifter-sverige-ger-gripen-plan-till-ukraina
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/vr3znL/uppgift-sverige-forbereder-donation-av-jas-plan-till-ukraina
https://www.di.se/live/sverige-uppges-donera-gripen-plan-till-ukraina/
SVT has done well with the address to the news. I wonder if that was their original headline.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage
Fantastic! First Saab’s Erieye (GlobalEye) and now finally Gripen. Ukraine has built the foundation for an air force that is among the sharpest you can get. Now it will be Ukrainian fighter jets hunting barbarians, not the other way around as at the beginning of the war.
Could turn out really well!
Really hope Ukraine also gets access to the Meteor.
So far, they don’t have any planes that can launch them, and if they dare to get close enough to the border, they might be able to stop the KAB.
It includes all armament 💪🏻!
Yes, I heard it, perfectly!
Here the press conference will be broadcast at 12:58:
https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2026/05/statsministern-bjuder-in-till-presstraff-i-uppsala/
**❗️The 🇺🇦147th Separate Artillery Brigade of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces has received HIMARS. The unit has already used it in combat and destroyed several 🇷🇺Russian guns with counter-battery fire.**
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mmvov3sov22k
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage
Johan, thanks for the worthwhile post! 👍
Thank you, MXT 😀
Tomorrow you probably won’t be able to hold back, I think this was 40% of the post.
Thank you Johan for yet another interesting post, looking forward to part 2 tomorrow.
Finally, one might say about today’s Jas events! I wonder how many planes we are going to give away, there was some budget from last year of 75 billion over three years, wasn’t there?
Keeping my fingers crossed that the planes are written off financially and that they get as many as they need, and that the 75 billion can be used for other exciting things.
Yes, Sweden is absolutely wonderful 🤩🤩🤩
**The Armed Forces of Ukraine have entered the north of Zarichne, Lyman direction**
https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2059742539742400980
**The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Berezove, Alexandrovsky direction**
https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2059742959793573964
Good that the threads have timed UA spring offensive 2026 and that it was correct – this year is the year 🤩🤩🤩
RU will now increase drone terror to the maximum.
Russia will now increase on all fronts. Until they no longer do.
Yep, Lex Russia.
They always go down in storm and fire
MXT – it is wonderful that we are cutting to China smoothly.
How I have waited.
For China it is probably big but now that door is passed.
A first step to a greater Europe 💥💥💥
Tomorrow the remaining 60% of the text will come and after that I will leave the Baltics, everything will then be said.
There is a lot happening in Ukraine so next week we will go through the fronts.
Agreement on expanded cooperation is signed.
Ukraine is buying 20 new Gripen E!
Not all details are finalized but deliveries will not take place until 2030…
Ukraine wants more immediate help and when the contracts for the new ones are signed, Sweden will donate
16 Gripen C/D with delivery at the beginning of 2027!
Sweden has in total supported with 128 billion kronor.
The latest package (2.7 billion dollars) also includes funds for, among other things, drones etc., but Gripen is of course the most important.
Zelenskyy thanks, among others, Sweden for being so decisive (in our support).
—
Q&A:
Zelensky answers the question about what benefit Gripen will provide.
He replies that he hopes Gripen with Meteor can help keep Russian combat aircraft at bay!!
In the long term, they expect to purchase 150 combat aircraft.
Zelenskyy also talks about Gripen being useful against, among other things, ballistic missiles.
He is disappointed with the USA regarding the delivery of countermeasures specifically against ballistic missiles and therefore he wrote the letter to the US Congress. Someone asked if the USA has responded to that letter but he has not yet received any answers.
Zelenskyy expects Gripen to be in the air in 10 months, at the same time it sounds like they do not have many pilots left who can train, and it sounds like training will start now, but Ulf then points out that some training on Gripen has already been conducted.
The agreement being signed now, which covers both donations of Gripen and Ukraine’s purchase of Gripen, also includes an exchange of knowledge regarding, among other things, drones but also other experiences that Ukraine has from the war.
Really good from us, and very nice that they will also send equipment in the form of meteor!
I actually got teary-eyed.
Hooray for the little country in the Nordics
All the planes will come fully armed, and since Ukraine already has EriEye (GlobalEye), I interpret this to mean that their pilots will eventually use the full range of the system.
The pilots selected will definitely already have extensive experience with the existing aircraft types, and it is highly likely that they will start with those who have already gained experience flying the Gripen.
Their GFSU will be able to progress relatively quickly (with a new pilot, it typically takes about 6 years before the pilot is considered operational, i.e., competent to carry out all types of missions).
If I continue to guess, they will aim to be combat effective when the first Gripens are delivered at the turn of the year.
What if they come earlier, a trick 😀
That would be something! Although I wonder, it would challenge our bureaucracy in a fundamental way. But hope lives on 👍🏻.
Ukraine has probably received money to buy with. Wasn’t it 90 billion from the EU?
There may be other orders ahead in the pipeline…….
Seems to be more than just Gripen for Zelensky – how fantastically good Sweden is
Five 😎
Then you feel right at home?
This war we did everything right.
We will get a much stronger position in the EU as thanks – many of the upcoming countries like us now.
So those who are on the upswing in the EU
Yes, we have done well!
(Of course, it could have gone much faster.)
RU is behind in understanding Stepnohirsk as we guessed 🤩🤩
now the image button is not working again
One map is RU official
So they are greatly exaggerating how much they have advanced?
Rostov 🤩🤩
Thank you for an interesting piece of text, Johan.
As usual, useful if not necessarily enjoyable reading.
Speaking of the Baltics and the presumed escalation by the Russian devils, I posted the following from SVD during yesterday’s post.
”The warning: Russia wants to pressure-test NATO
Vladimir Putin could carry out a minor attack around the Baltic Sea as early as this summer – with the goal of causing NATO to collapse. The warning comes from the well-known military expert Carlo Masala.
Published: May 27, 2026, 19:58
TALLINN The scenario that Carlo Masala paints takes place in the near future. Russia has entered the border town of Narva under the pretext that Estonia is mistreating its Russian-speaking population. At the same time, a smaller Russian force has landed on Estonian Hiiumaa, at the entrance to the Gulf of Finland.
In the White House, an American president shrugs off NATO’s Article 5 and the idea that the US would come to the rescue. Why risk a third world war for some Russian-speaking Estonians on the defense alliance’s periphery? Especially since the Russian president calls and promises that Narva is all he is interested in. Russia has taken Hiiumaa only as a security measure, in case NATO countries start a war – which Moscow would respond to with nuclear weapons in that case.
The course of events is taken from Carlo Masala’s bestselling book ”Wenn Russland gewinnt” (When Russia Wins), which has been translated and sold in 24 countries. In the book, which in Swedish is called ”Efter Ukraina: ett scenario” (After Ukraine: a scenario), it is March 2028. But it could just as well be here and now, explains Professor Masala, who normally works at the German Armed Forces University in Munich.
Since the manuscript was written in 2024, the situation has become even more serious.
– There is talk that Russia could be ready to attack again in 2029, provided the war in Ukraine is over. But if the world expects it to be in 2029, I would do something before then if I were Russian, says Masala.
He has been an advisor to the German government and is a frequently consulted expert on German TV.
We meet at a security conference in Estonia’s capital Tallinn. Just over 200 km west of Narva. According to Masala, there is now a strategic window of opportunity for Putin, which increases the likelihood that he will test Article 5 in the near future.
– Looking at the overall picture, the situation is perfect for Putin right now. The US is tied up in the Middle East, and their ammunition supplies are empty. There are elections soon in France and the situation is critical for Keir Starmer in the UK, he says.
Furthermore, Vladimir Putin’s influence has decreased globally in recent months.
The goal is to make NATO collapse
Russia has left Venezuela, Russian forces are having problems in Mali and no longer play a direct role in Syria. According to the professor, this makes Europe ”the only playing field Putin has left.” Something he believes indicates that Moscow will intensify its focus on the continent in the near future.
Moreover, Donald Trump is clearly irritated with a number of European NATO countries, accusing them of not helping with the Iran war. This has led Trump to once again question the value of NATO and call the alliance ”a paper tiger.”
– I don’t think Putin will open a second front as long as the war in Ukraine continues. He doesn’t have the resources. But I also can’t rule out that he does something small – and bets on NATO collapsing, says Carlo Masala.
– And there is no better time than the coming months.
So what you’re saying is that the immediate future is the most dangerous since World War II?
– Yes. Absolutely.
Without Article 5 – no NATO
Masala is not alone in his warning. In recent months, Sweden’s Supreme Commander Michael Claesson has also repeatedly stated that Putin could test Article 5 in the near future. In the Swede’s scenario, it has been about Russia possibly taking a smaller – perhaps uninhabited – Swedish or Finnish island to see what happens. Hoping that other NATO countries would consider the intrusion too insignificant to start a war.
With the consequence that the defense alliance collapses.
That is exactly what happens in Masala’s book. NATO leaders meet because Estonia requests military help. But several countries, including the US and France, choose not to activate Article 5 – which states that an attack on one country is an attack on all. The alliance does not come to the rescue, which in practice means that NATO no longer fulfills its deterrent purpose and thus loses its most important function.
Source: NATO has practiced exactly Narva
Not entirely surprisingly, Masala’s book has made headlines in Estonia, where it has been heavily criticized. When I met the country’s former president Toomas Hendrik Ilves during the large security conference in Munich last winter, he tore Masala’s Narva scenario to shreds. Something like that, he said, Moscow would not dare attempt.
At the same time, a high-ranking general from one of NATO’s major member countries has confirmed in our background talks that a Russian attack on Narva is something the alliance has practiced.
Carlo Masala laughs lightly when reminded of the criticism – and that NATO simulated a Narva invasion.
– Yes, I am aware of both. I can understand the criticism, since I make Estonia the frontline. But Narva is just one example. And whichever country I had chosen, it would have been claimed that it can’t happen.
– They say Estonia is safe, Finland is safe, Latvia is safe. But if it can’t happen anywhere, why on earth are we then rearming? And unfortunately, I am quite convinced that if something were to happen in the coming months, this American president will not support the Europeans by sending soldiers.
What do you imagine would happen then? NATO falls in practice, but what happens instead? Does some sort of European variant of NATO take over and come to the rescue?
– If Russia attacks Narva, or some other place along the border, I expect the Nordic countries and the Baltics to respond militarily and defend NATO’s territory. I believe those countries will become some kind of core in a European defense alternative, says Masala.
He is not as sure about his own homeland Germany and France. He believes that the German government, consisting of Christian and Social Democrats with Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the helm, would be ready to enter the conflict militarily. However, he says there is a clear risk that they would not have public opinion on their side. There is a strong fear of a new world war in the country, and in some places even Russia-friendly currents among Germans.
– And France is more or less like Germany in this case. I find it hard to see the French, under President Macron, taking military action.
You say Russia does not have the capacity to open a second front against NATO, and that a smaller attack would be a test. In that case, Europe should see through Vladimir Putin’s bluff?
– Yes, yes. Absolutely. What he wants to achieve is that we do not defend our territory. ”
https://www.svd.se/a/d4v96J/putin-kan-testa-natos-artikel-5-redan-under-sommaren
A bit of fun nonsense! The White House Ballroom Blitz
https://youtu.be/GO_p9UdbnVY?si=n8P27Z6Jfuar9Mhk
😂 Nice, AI is getting better and better!
Thank you Johan for the interesting part 1. Then one probably cannot say that the USA has abandoned Taiwan. What the USA has said is that it does not support Taiwan if Taiwan pushes for independence.
That is, the USA continues to support the one-China policy, which Taiwan’s government also does – they are clear that they do not consider themselves in need of declaring independence.
Status quo, then, for now.
I can see that it is already written, but I feel that I have a need for pure joy to write myself.
Gripen!
Gripen!
Gripen!
Hripen is released🦅💫
Now we are releasing Meteor on ryzz 💫💥
It is a shooting star to long for.
It really bears repeating.
We should be damn proud.
🏅
👍
👍
👍
Very good, go Sweden! Russia is done for now. 🙂
**US, Iran reach 60-day ceasefire deal reopening Strait of Hormuz, sources say.
The deal is still pending U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval, U.S. officials said.**
https://kyivindependent.com/us-iran-reach-60-day-ceasefire-deal-reopening-strait-of-hormuz-sources-say/
**1\#Ukraine Dnieper Front: Russians are reportedly bombing Ukrainian drone positions near Rybne. Even if they weren’t drones (which implies they were positioned further forward than the infantry), the Ukrainians have gained ground in this sector.
2\#Ukraine Komar Front: Ukrainian presence in Tolstoy, area passes from Russian control to grey.
3\#Ukraine Kostijantinivka Front: Russians consolidate areas around Berestok, from where they are now launching infiltrations throughout the southwestern side of the city
4\#Ukraine Kostijantinivka Front: The situation remains difficult, Ukrainian artillery in the central area of the city shows that infiltrations are extensive, and have even reached some positions near the railway across the river.
Given the nature of the infiltrations, it is difficult to say whether the Russians came from North to South, but since a series of bombings were filmed in the southern area, it could be some Russian unit that crossed the river.
5\#Ukraine Kharkhiv Front: Russian infiltration recorded on the border with Russia north of the city in the villages of Hraniv and Shevchenka
6\#Ukraine Sumy Front: Russians continue with harassment actions along the border, here near Novodymitrivka
https://bsky.app/profile/majakovsk73.bsky.social/post/3mmwi4oojjc2y
**Moscow is the most heavily defended city in Russia. Yet footage shows helicopters lifting more Pantsirs onto tall rooftops in bad weather. They may be worried that Ukraine will strike again. Every system guarding Moscow is one that isn’t guarding somewhere else.Moscow is the most heavily defended city in Russia. Yet footage shows helicopters lifting more Pantsirs onto tall rooftops in bad weather. They may be worried that Ukraine will strike again. Every system guarding Moscow is one that isn’t guarding somewhere else.**
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3mmwhh2vyyd26
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/28/russians-caught-putting-pantsirs-on-rooftops-in-moscow-in-the-rain-following-ukrainian-strikes/
**3 Russian shadow fleet tankers attacked by drones near Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
The tankers James II, Altura, and Velora were all around 50 miles (80 kilometers) off the coast of northern Turkey when the attacks occurred.**
https://kyivindependent.com/3-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-attacked-by-drones-near-turkeys-black-sea-coast/
Had a tab open for the post on May 5th, and started reading comments and replied to one….
But what does it matter? Ukraine is going to get Gripen!
Two years ago
Two years ago, the ö
For two years ago, I was with my little b
Good morning!
960 KWIA
2 Tanks
11 AFVs
28 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
1750 UAVs
4 UGVs
324 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Slava Ukraini
Good morning 👊