Russian losses and activities

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There are rumors that Russia will not display any military vehicles on May 9th and that this is simply because they do not have enough left to show. Too many have been lost in the war in Ukraine. If true, it is of course hard to believe that they have any huge reserve where they have sent all newly produced vehicles. The more conspiratorial might instead claim that it is just to make it look like they do not have enough vehicles, with the purpose of lulling us into a false sense of security. It will in any case become clear, both if there will be any vehicles at their victory parade and if they have hidden them all away to attack, for example, the Baltics.
Read more at Kyiv Independent.

Russian losses in Ukraine

Today’s report contains the same number of KWIA as yesterday and almost as many soft vehicles. However, a slightly lower number of armored vehicles, although a couple of tanks are included today. Then we have two air defense systems and just like yesterday 5 special equipment.

  • 1180 KWIA
  • 2 Tanks
  • 3 AFVs
  • 54 Artillery systems
  • 2 Air defense systems
  • 1775 UAVs
  • 245 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 5 Special equipment

Russian activities

A slightly lower number of battles, KAB at normal level, somewhat higher number of artillery while drones have increased significantly since yesterday.

  • 189 combat clashes
  • 84 aviation strikes
  • 234 KAB/CAB
  • 8 409 kamikaze drones
  • 3019 shells (42 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

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85 thoughts on “Russian losses and activities”

  1. 205

    Continued very heavy pressure in Donetsk, and basically the same prioritization, but falling overall. A persistent offensive. Falling but still high unlocalized. 

    Ratio Pokrovsk 2 KWiA/attack at 22, applied to localized 264 KWiA and 916 KWiA per unlocalized 57 attacks, 16 KWiA per unlocalized attack, within the range 5-25. Higher ratio than earlier in this offensive. 

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 1
    S Slobozhansky 8↘️
    Kupyansk 4
    Lyman 6↘️
    Slovyansk 6
    Kramatorsk 0
    Kostjantynivka 21💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 48💥💥💥
    Oleksandrivskij 6
    Huliaipole 29💥💥
    Orikhivsk 0
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3

    Localized 132↘️
    Unlocalized 57↘️
    Total 189↘️
    Ratio unloc/loc 0.43↘️

    • Kostjantynivka 21💥↗️
    • Pokrovsk 48💥💥💥
    • Huliaipole 29💥💥

     

     

     

     

    1. johan No.1

      The thread slept in 😳

      Have reached Lisbon in my three-step rocket ✊✊

      RU losses up.

      RU attacks down.

      UA attacks up

      this can only go in one direction 🤩🤩🤩🤩

      1. maggan

        UA attacks down if I understand how we interpret unlocalized? Still high but right should be right.

        At the moment, I am actually looking forward to May 9th, maybe this year one should watch the parade? There is good hope that Ukraine is unbridled, as their dependence on foreign countries decreases every day.

  2. johan No.1

    The parade – they are afraid of being drowned out.

    UA wanted it last year but didn’t get it.

    who can stop them this year…

    Putin will NOT show up in person unless he has tenfold layers of protection.

    Probably there will be a big screen but that can also be drowned out by UA.

    The psychological effect will be stunning but RU is in a bit of a bind, they have to do something.

    good good

  3. johan No.1

    This year, everything we said would happen is happening, but hadn’t because UA was opposed by Biden, Trump, Europe, USA.

    If I want to be lazy, I just repost old posts.

    I have completely underestimated Europe and the USA in this war, my blind spot.

    One still feels ashamed and the self-image is clearly changed.

    1. DenGamle

      How do you mean that you have underestimated Europe and the USA?
      Europe has provided aid to Ukraine, but the USA has not helped Ukraine (maybe a little intelligence support). On the contrary, the USA has supported Putin’s demands 100%.

      2. johan No.1

        I’m starting to get a bit bruised and played it safe 😀

        Europe opposed Ukraine until 2023, then we didn’t dare go against the USA, now it has eased.

        USA – Trump, Biden, ALL of them are just soulless predators, so DAMN tired of their betrayal even though the victory perfume and golden shoes make it hard to criticize Trump

    1. fedtmule

      Just wait until the nuclear power renewal starts gaining momentum with both small and large reactors. This, combined with improvements in Europe’s power transmission and electricity grid, and our automotive industry catching up in the development of electric cars, etc.
      Countries like Russia and Iran, among others, will definitely have a couple of weapons and levers less in their toolbox.

    2. maggan

      Hmmm, unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that. The price is set by the highest bidder, i.e. if there is capacity in the cable to, for example, Germany, the price in our electricity area automatically becomes the same as in Germany. Why sell at production cost when the customer in Germany is willing to pay more?

      But she is right that we need to move away from fossil fuels.

      1. fedtmule

        Yes, Johan. That sounds like a reasonable figure, perhaps slightly on the low side just in SE4, but if some are also established in SE3, that naturally strengthens the total.
        When our neighboring countries have also got planned reactors in place, it will be good and hopefully even better when the number is increased further in the future.
        Who could have thought about 10 years ago that countries like Denmark and Norway would seriously consider building nuclear power.
        But who could have thought 30 years ago that Germany of all countries would phase out its nuclear power and replace it with a harmful dependence on Russian fossil gas………

      2. MXT

        I have started building my own SMR here in SE5! 😄

        4-5 locations but with 2-3 at each place seems reasonable to me.

        I want to be able to stop one for maintenance without causing too much imbalance (but also to save money, there is a lot of groundwork, infrastructure, etc. that needs to be in place and if you can build 2-3 per cluster you probably save quite a bit).

        2. johan No.1

          Well, something like that but Kalmar doesn’t get any.

          Don’t remember what they cost and yes, everything always gets more expensive.

          Wind and solar will run in parallel and batteries will come over time.

          The Gothenburg area, Linköping-Norrköping and then try to place near existing lines

          SE3 rarely has problems, right?

          Seems to be coming now and if we don’t complicate and delay and buy “off the shelf” it can probably go quite fast?

          Then you catch the dip in wind power when the lifespan kicks in.

          There is quite a lot of exciting battery technology but it probably needs time.

          GOOD that we didn’t choose new large reactors that the elite saw as their big chance without sensible companies – going in the right direction now.

      3. maggan

        SMR has at least done an awesome job with their PR. None built yet, except for the military, where money is not a problem. There is a reason why reactors are getting bigger and bigger; it has to do with neutron economy as well as regular economy.

        I am hopeful about SMR, but it’s starting to feel like the atomic age 2.0, compared to the 60s when nuclear power was the solution to everything. Unfortunately, “real” reactors are politically difficult, so we have to build smaller ones instead.

  5. MXT

    Russian Telegram channels are reporting that an assassination attempt was made on Major General Azatbek Omurbekov (64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade) in the Khabarovsk Krai, who, as a colonel, commanded the massacre in Bucha. In particular, this was reported by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel.

    An explosive device was planted in a mailbox in a stairwell on the military garrison grounds in the village of Knyaze-Volkonskoye-1. Lieutenant Colonel Kuzmenko, commander of the training communications battalion, was killed. Omurbekov’s condition is unknown. This information requires confirmation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mkmmrl3nm22n

  7. MXT

    Off-Topic, King Charles in the USA

    “The state dinner at the White House with Donald Trump was a success for King Charles, several media outlets note. The British monarch delivered several unexpectedly bold jokes during his speech: he toasted with Coca-Cola (Trump’s favorite drink), joked about the president’s infamous ballroom, and made several jabs with references to World War II.

    – You recently commented, Mr. President, that if it weren’t for the USA, European countries would be speaking German. I dare say that if it weren’t for us, you would be speaking French, said Charles, after which the room filled with laughter and applause.

    Charles also presented a gift in the form of a large ship’s bell that had been on a British submarine during World War II. To the president’s great delight, the bell was etched with “Trump 1944.” It turned out that there had been a submarine named HMS Trump that participated in the Pacific War. Trump was reportedly noticeably moved by the king’s gesture and turned to Melania with the words: “Do you see that, darling?”

    King Charles delivered what can best be described as a masterful display of Trump diplomacy, writes a reporter for the New York Times.”
    https://omni.se/skojade-om-cola-och-balsal-succe-for-charles-ovantat-vagade-skamt-infor-trump/a/rr8Xze

        1. johan No.1

          Good friend, hope your morning is as good as all the other winners’.

          As compensation for my constant nagging, I have ordered a victory perfume and a pair of gold shoes for you from trump.com.

          As a bonus, the neighbor lady might seriously become interested when crocs and “shall we have a drink” are accompanied by a stunning perfume scent and clattering golden shoes and a bag of Norrlandsdjup.

          The least I can do when the thread now daily gets to share your wisdom and more and more people come here

    2. fedtmule

      Yes, you MXT. You can really tell when a PR professional like King Charles III chooses to shift into the highest gear.
      It’s interesting what cards Great Britain would have had to play in a situation like this if they had been a republic.
      Likewise, one can reflect on the great impact Swedish business and others would have had and how many doors and red carpets would have been rolled out for Sweden internationally if we too had been a republic.
      Here comes the President of Sweden!
      Who?.. The President of Switzerland… Swaziland????

  8. MXT

    Off-Topic, AI bubble or not?

    I think we will soon see AI companies start making serious money as the quality is now becoming good enough that it pays off to use it and in many cases it is actually stupid not to.

    By the way, Anthropic is the one behind Claude, which apparently is an excellent AI Chat since according to 205 it resembles me! (As you can see in yesterday’s thread).

    Now Claude uses the older Sonnet model for free users while the latest Opus model is supposed to be significantly sharper.

    But when it comes to bubble or not, there will surely be a shakeout sooner or later so we will probably see a deflation and if you have bet on the wrong horse(s) it can cost you.
    That in itself can of course scare so many that the whole bubble bursts, but I actually don’t think that will happen specifically with AI. There are many big players involved who also make money in areas other than AI.

    However, we might still see a big overall downturn, everything feels a bit overvalued right now and if Hormuz remains blocked for several months we might see a global downturn similar to during Covid.

    “The use of AI is skyrocketing among Swedish companies and is now the third largest external cost item, after advertising on Google and Meta. This is stated in a report from the Swedish fintech company Mynt, writes DI.

    In the first quarter, expenses related to AI services increased by 264 percent compared to the previous year. The explosive growth means that AI has surpassed expenses for cloud infrastructure like AWS and air travel.

    At the same time, Anthropic has overtaken Open AI as the most popular AI provider.”
    https://omni.se/rapport-anthropic-svenska-foretagares-ai-favorit/a/QJrOOW

    2. 205

      A sector that has previously been quite annoyed by the internet is cashing in: the publishing companies. For example, Wiley’s. From whom AI companies buy their training data. Can raise the bar for newcomers.

      “A major catalyst for Wiley stock in the current market is its vast repository of peer-reviewed scholarly content. This “data hoard” is incredibly valuable for training Large Language Models (LLMs). By licensing its intellectual property to AI developers, Wiley is creating a new, high-margin revenue stream that leverages its historical archive for modern technological needs.”

      https://www.bitget.com/en-CA/wiki/wiley-stock

      Also opens up for a new war between content providers and creators. 

      2. johan No.1

        We SHOULD try to pull our posts from the other blog and then get a sensible search system where you can ask loose questions and get a good answer.

        The future would be to be able to stitch together a historical text with AI.

        I want to, but will never have time to sit and search through everything myself.

        1. johan No.1

          When you have time, you can come up with proposals and scope, and then we’ll run a targeted Swish campaign so you can allocate time for that WORK.

          I have most of it in my head, but it’s not entirely accurate, and if I try to get it right, it can take a day to find a damn detail – it’s simply not possible.

          What you want to be able to do is ask a question and then have it summarized with info from what we’ve written, including quotes and dates, posts as comments.

          Then we have an edge and can start building something 👍

          We’ve been sitting for four years, summarizing what has happened every day and guessing things that very often turned out to be correct later.

          Maybe you can connect the other blog, but Lars probably has to give the okay, I guess?

          This historical archive across two platforms is probably quite unique, with hundreds having contributed since 2022.

          Is internet search handled by Google AI?

          1. MXT

            Will get back with a cost estimate, but when it comes to raising money, I wonder if our visitors are as passionate about the project of transferring your posts as you are.
            It will probably be that you have to contribute yourself by giving me free access to chips, dip, and Mariestad for the rest of my life! 😂

            Yes, Google will automatically ensure that the entire internet can access your posts (just as it already does on Cornu).

    3. MXT

      😂

      “The White House is working on guidelines for how federal agencies can bypass their own blacklisting of the AI company Anthropic and use the company’s new AI models. Sources tell Axios.

      This would represent a clear turnaround after the company was previously identified as a security risk by the Pentagon and Donald Trump. One source describes it as a way for the administration to “save face.”

      The decision to blacklist Anthropic was made before the very powerful AI model Mythos became known. Mythos has attracted the authorities’ interest due to its advanced ability to identify and potentially exploit vulnerabilities in software systems.”
      https://omni.se/kallor-mythos-far-vita-huset-att-vilja-radda-ansiktet/a/lnMX3A

    4. MXT

      “The CEO of the Norwegian Oil Fund is surprised that the stock markets have not been more affected by the war in the Middle East, reports Ekot.

      – If you had told me a year ago how the situation would look with trade barriers, a war in the Middle East, energy prices on the rise, potential impact on interest rates, and so on, I would have said that the market would fall sharply. Instead, it is up, says CEO Nicolai Tangen in an interview.

      He believes the reason why the stock markets have instead performed well is spelled AI and the “positive news” surrounding it.”

      https://omni.se/vd-for-oljefonden-overraskad-borserna-inte-fallit-rejalt/a/2pvKGx

        1. MXT

          The biggest elimination will probably be among all the companies that are now building wrapper services where they themselves do not provide the AI parts but only create functionality around them (and then in the background still use Open AI, Anthropics, etc.).

          Most will go under, but it will not have any major impact on anyone else. Few of those companies are listed on the stock exchange.

          This can be compared to when Apple launched the App Store and some had enormous success with games and other apps. Suddenly everyone dreamed of making millions and started building apps, and thousands were released every day. Only a few single-digit percentages actually made money.

          Except for those who built apps for others, of course, they got their money even if few barely downloaded the apps.

    5. MacMelmac

      The problem with these AI companies is that they build a solution once, then train the user who becomes more interested and thus uses the solution more and more. The user becomes so skilled that they create their own AI agents through AI and additional add-on solutions.
      Suddenly, there is no more work left to do there.

      1. MXT

        Yes, among those who build solutions based on AI, it will of course be tough (see my comment above). 

        Another problem is not only that the customer might build something themselves, but suddenly the AI companies release their own add-on feature that they provide for free as an added value, so what you have built suddenly becomes completely worthless and impossible to charge for.

        For example, there are special code editors that integrate AI and allow it to access the file system to make code changes directly in the files. Now you can easily integrate that yourself in the larger common code editors, so their advantage disappeared there. 

    6. iamwhoiam

      How do we know that the AI-related spending increases aren’t just because all the staff are sitting around prompting all day instead of working? 😅

      1. MXT

        There is a lot in that. 😄

        Like when everyone got access to the Internet at work and sat reading Facebook and hanging out on blogs and forums instead of working.

    7. MXT

      Maybe not so smart to let AI write the country’s AI policy.

      “South Africa withdraws its first draft of a national AI policy after it was revealed that the document contained fabricated sources, several media outlets report.

      Communications Minister Solly Malatsi states that the false references were likely generated by AI without proper oversight. The minister describes the incident as a serious mistake that has damaged trust in the policy.

      The policy aimed to make the country a leader in AI innovation and proposed, among other things, a national AI commission and an ethics council.”
      https://omni.se/sydafrikas-nya-ai-policy-byggde-pa-pahittade-ai-kallor/a/wrdXeP

    3. MacMelmac

      UA can help them with a couple of drones to “show off” during the parade. Cheap for RU and “more bang for the buck,” so to speak!

  14. MXT

    Schrödinger gatt

    “Donald Trump has asked his staff to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, according to two unnamed officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. The goal for the US president is reportedly to try to cripple the Iranian economy in the hope that Tehran will yield on the nuclear issue.

    Trump has pushed for continued pressure on Iran’s economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from the country’s ports in meetings with his administration. Despite the war proving unpopular among voters, the president assesses that the alternatives – resuming bombings or withdrawing from the conflict – carry greater risks than a continued blockade, according to the officials.

    Iran proposed in its new peace agreement to the US that the Strait of Hormuz be opened immediately but that nuclear talks be postponed. Donald Trump rejected the proposal.” https://omni.se/kallor-trumps-stab-forbereds-for-en-forlangd-iranblockad/a/lnMbGy

    1. MXT

      “On Tuesday, the government issued an ”early warning” about the shortage of aviation fuel. Aviation analyst Jan Ohlsson believes that the canceled departures for flights already announced are just the beginning.

      – I think this crisis will deepen. I believe we will see more cancellations due to fuel shortages, or alternatively soaring prices for aviation fuel, he tells Expressen.

      According to the Swedish Energy Agency, Sweden’s supply of aviation fuel is currently stable and sufficient for one month ahead.

      – But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a foreseeable time, we may face problems after the summer, says Ekot’s economic commentator Knut Kainz Rognerud to Ekot.”
      https://omni.se/flyganalytikern-krisen-kommer-djupna/a/6qP1aW

       

      2. maggan

        Fuel shortages can never occur if capitalist supply and demand are allowed to operate freely. No rationing or allocation means that the price will be what is needed so that everyone cannot afford fuel, and then the problem is solved.

        A disaster for society and the economy, but we avoid shortages. Politically difficult to justify to one’s “poor” voters who can no longer afford it.

    2. MXT

      “U.S. President Donald Trump criticizes Iran through a post with an AI-generated image of himself holding an automatic weapon with explosions in the background.

      “Iran cannot pull itself together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear agreement,” writes the U.S. president, urging the Iranians to “get smart soon.” He adds in capital letters: “No more mr nice guy!”

      The post was published around four in the morning, U.S. time. A fact that, among others, the liberal-leaning news site The Daily Beast interprets as “nocturnal anger.””
      https://omni.se/trump-hotar-iran-no-more-mr-nice-guy/a/d4JPEz

      3. maggan

        Sure, here is the translation:

        Even though you sleep worse as you get older, sitting and posting at 4:00 AM… Then you deserve a nap in the middle of the day during some boring meeting.

  15. MXT

    “Ukraine can now reach targets in Russia up to 1,750 km away, expanding deep strike range by 2.5 times since 2022 – Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

    ◾️ In 2022, two Tu-95 bombers were hit at the Engels-2 Air Base in the Saratov region of Russia, located at a distance of 650 km.

    ◾️ In April 2024, the strike range of Ukrainian drones increased to 1,200 km – a Shahed drone production plant in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone came under attack. In May that year, drones reached the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery, located 1500 km from the state border.

    ◾️ In February 2026, a record distance to target for Ukrainian drones was set – 1,750 km. They struck the Ukhta oil refinery in the Komi Republic. “The Defense Forces of Ukraine struck five strategic plants and ten oil refining facilities in Russia in March.

    The operations spanned from temporarily occupied Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to deep rear regions of Russia, including the Leningrad region,” the ministry’s statement said.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mkmqtsfits2n

    1. MacMelmac

      How much air defense is there around Moscow? It would have been somewhat comical if they had tried a drone straight into the defense headquarters. It is a legitimate target after all!

  19. MXT

    🇺🇦💥 Zelensky: Report by the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Oleh Lugovsky. We have recorded an updated level of Russian export losses from Ukrainian long-range sanctions, namely: the port of Primorsk – minus 13% of load, Novorossiysk – minus 38%, Ust-Luga – minus 43%.

    Second, we have received Russian documents that determine the directions of their counteraction to our contacts with partners within the framework of Drone Deals. Russia’s special efforts in this context will be directed at countering our cooperation in the Middle East and the Gulf.

    The third aspect is that Russian contingents in African countries have recently been increased by an additional 8,000 people, and Russia is trying to introduce the use of drones in each country of its presence through supply, on-site production, and training.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mkmwef46222q

  20. MXT

    ☠️ Vchk-OGPU became aware of a terrorist attack that took place on April 28 in a military garrison located in the village of Kniaze-Volkonskoye-1 in Khabarovsk Krai. The target of the explosion was Major General Azatbek Omurbekov, who commanded the Russian troops in Bucha.

    A bomb was planted in a mailbox on the landing of house 55. One person was killed and several others were injured.   It is not yet known about Omurbekov’s condition. Lieutenant Colonel Kuzmenko, commander of the training liaison battalion, died at the scene of the explosion.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mkmvt4hhv22q

  23. MXT

    On the night of April 29, Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil facilities in Orsk and the Perm Krai of the Russian Federation, located 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

    According to the publication Astra, which conducted an OSINT analysis, the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk was targeted. This is one of Russia’s largest refineries, with a processing capacity of approximately 6 million tons of oil per year.

    According to information from the Exilenova+ channel, a linear production and dispatch station in Perm is likely on fire following the strikes. This facility serves as a key node in the Transneft system, responsible for pumping, storing, and distributing oil via main pipelines.

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