Ukraine has once again attacked oil tanks in Tuapse – Russian losses

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Tuapse has once again been attacked by Ukrainian drones

Before the fire had burned out, Ukrainian drones once again attacked oil tanks in Tuapse during the night. The first attack took place on April 20 when the city’s oil refinery was also hit. Since then, there has been a violent fire in the city. The oil tanks hit last night are also part of the oil refinery. 122 firefighters have been called in to try to stop the fires, but so far they do not seem to be succeeding very well.

According to Russian authorities, Ukraine obviously has not managed to hit anything; it is only falling wreckage (so no one can come and blame poor air defense).
According to the Russian Defense Minister, Russian air defense is said to have shot down a total of 186 drones during the night over Russia’s southern regions including occupied Crimea.
Read more here, image here.

By the way, JD Vance seems to be an even bigger opponent of Ukraine than Trump according to another article from Kyiv Independent.

Russian losses

After yesterday’s somewhat lower losses, we are now back to higher KWA, unusually many armored vehicles (although tanks are missing) and a total of 276 soft vehicles and unusually many special ones.

  • 1180 KWIA
  • 16 AFVs
  • 34 Artillery systems
  • 2 MLRS
  • 1039 UAVs
  • 276 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 5 Special equipment

Russian activities

Fairly normal figures in the latest report except when it comes to the Russian suicide drones and artillery attacks, which are also significantly lower today. Artillery has long been declining and is now among the lowest levels we have seen, while the number of drone attacks has basically increased continuously but of course with some variation.

It is a bit too early to draw any conclusions about whether we are seeing a long-term trend regarding the drones, but when it comes to artillery there is no doubt. That decline has been ongoing since April 2025. Of course, it is impossible to know if it will continue to decrease or if it will level off or possibly even increase again (North Korea and China might decide to help more than they already do). The trend is positive regardless.

Ideally, one would like to see the same trend regarding KAB but it seems that Russia can continue at this pace.

  • 226 combat clashes
  • 76 air strikes
  • 247 KAB/CAB
  • 6,251 kamikaze drones
  • 2,283 shelling (34 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

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135 thoughts on “Ukraine has once again attacked oil tanks in Tuapse – Russian losses”

  1. Umlaut

    The Russians seem really accurate with their air defense, they constantly manage to pick off all incoming missiles and drones. On the other hand, they seem quite incompetent with the placement of said air defenses since the downed wrecks just as constantly seem to hit strategically important targets.

  2. 205

    The total number of Russian attacks is down, but unlocalized Ukrainian attacks are up, a whole 82, and more than fifty percent of the localized ones. Or, more than one third of the total.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
    S Slobozhansky 18💥↗️
    Kupyansk 4↘️
    Lyman 13💥
    Slovyansk 4↗️
    Kramatorsk 1
    Kostjantynivka 15💥↘️
    Pokrovsk 52💥💥💥
    Oleksandrivskij 6↘️
    Huliaipole 26💥💥↘️
    Orikhivsk 1
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 4

    Localized 144↘️
    Unlocalized 82↗️
    Total 226↘️
    Ratio unloc/loc 0.56

     

    • S Slobozhansky 18💥↗️
    • Pokrovsk 52💥💥💥
    • Huliaipole 26💥💥↘️

     

    3. Lasse W

      The Russians make a push and then the number of attacks drops the next day. But they attack. Attack is the best defense, as the saying goes. A gamechanger could probably be if the attacks stop completely and they go on the defensive. That would be a first indication that they are starting to give up. And that it is starting to fall apart.

      1. MXT

        Yes, if it stops completely, we will probably enter a new phase. Then it certainly won’t happen across the entire front at the same time but will occur gradually.

        So far, DeepStateMap still reports small Russian advances every day, so they still have the initiative, but the feeling is that it could soon turn around.

        Ukraine has almost always been cautious and preferred to give up ground rather than sacrifice soldiers. Russia taking ground is not really a true measure of the actual balance of power, but rather a measure of who is willing to take the greatest losses.

        When Ukraine finally gains the upper hand and it turns around, it can happen quickly (as we saw in the autumn of 2022).

  4. johan No.1

    Rewarding discussion in yesterday’s thread this morning – don’t miss it.

    You will learn about populist parties.

    Seaman’s porridge.

    and voting for the Center Party.

  5. johan No.1

    Now established figures in RU are beginning to criticize the war.

    opposition.

    Putin is insecure this summer as the UA offensive is underway.

    May 9 will probably be mostly fear.

    UA attacks are increasing sharply according to 205.

    this year is the year we get to rejoice after this ordeal

     

  8. MXT

    Unfortunately, not only Ukraine was active last night.

    “Russian attacks on Ukraine never stop. Several regions were under Russian strikes last night

    ◾️Sumy region: a kindergarten, hospital, residential buildings, tram line damaged. 4 people injured. Thankfully, no one was under the debris of the kindergarten (the one in the 📹)
    ◾️Zaporizhzhia region: 2 people injured”

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mkjzsx4b6k2x

  9. MXT

    Kyiv Post also writes about Tuapse.
    “Tuapse Ablaze Again: Ukrainian Drones Hit Key Russian Oil Hub as Environmental Crisis Spreads
    The strike marks the third hit on the Tuapse refinery in under two weeks – after attacks on April 16 and April 20 that triggered major fires, damaged storage tanks, and forced the plant offline.”
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74894

    Liked the picture:

  11. DenGamle

    The next senior minister that Trump fires is Hegseth. He is blamed for the less successful war effort against Iran, and for covering up/downplaying the damage that Iran has done to the US bases.
    If I am wrong, I promise, against better judgment, to praise Johan’s analyses for a year.

    2. Pehr

      I agree. It’s probably a relatively low-odds scenario. Vance, who is reportedly against the war and also rumored not to get along very well with the aforementioned Hegseth, is more likely to strengthen his position rather than fold to bring about change.

    5. 205

      🚨 Trump’s Defense Secretary Pick Pete Hegseth is CRUMBLING Under Fire 🔥

      Republicans in Congress are starting to bail on him — and it’s getting ugly fast.

      Multiple senators are now openly saying his record is too messy and he could turn into a massive embarrassment if confirmed.

      Senator Thom Tillis just went public: “He makes decisions that are far from exemplary.”

      Panic is spreading across the Senate over the entire Pentagon lineup — from Army leadership to Navy picks.

      Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is out there smiling and shaking hands with Netanyahu while the knives come out at home.

      Is Trump’s “dream team” already imploding before they even take office?

      This is pure chaos. Who’s winning and who’s losing here? Drop your take 👇

      https://x.com/blackwoodbrief/status/2049115164092543277?s=46

    6. CB500four

      Hmm, he is loyal, but maybe a bit too dumb. Vance is also mostly loyal, not Hegseth-dumb, but makes the mistake of thinking for himself sometimes, and doesn’t like unnecessary wars on the other side of the globe.

      Almost think Vance might be more expendable.

      Otherwise saw a thought about the latest attempted murder.

      Why was the entire leadership gathered at the media event? Isn’t it usually more common for the President and Vice President not to be in the same place if possible?

      1. 205

        Yes, loyal hundred 💯. Trump might send reinforcements, some general who has the critics’ trust. Hegseth has still bombed away Iran’s military capability and helped to eliminate the top tier. Not easy to foresee Iran’s mass drone attack on the neighboring countries, which used up a good part of the air defense missile arsenal. Not even Johan predicted this. 

    7. MacMelmac

      None of those currently in office, not even Vance, are heirs. He can fire everyone, in a steady stream. Trump Jr will take over to pardon all those at risk of prison sentences.

  12. MXT

    Russian strike on the Port of Chornomorsk in Odesa region has dumped thousands of tons of sunflower oil into the sea‼️ ​

    “The attack destroyed a storage tank holding 6,000 tons of sunflower oil. The resulting spill spans a 400-by-200-meter slick across the port’s waters. Emergency crews have deployed boom barriers to contain the spread,” – Environmental Inspectorate of the South-Western District.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3mkhyqlbqcs2r

    1. MXT

      The database AND the backups?
      As for the latter, I really don’t know if you can blame the AI for that.
      If you let it have access to manage the backups, you only have yourself to blame. 😂

      1. alex

        I get frustrated about omni shitty headline writing too – what the hell does it matter if it takes 9 seconds. Or 18 seconds?

        This site is different. Here it’s quality all the way!

        And it wasn’t clear from the article if it was just a reset, so I guess it was possible to fix 🙂

        1. MXT

          They at least quoted correctly from the original where they highlight it.

          “Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent — Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6 — deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider.

          It took 9 seconds.
          The agent then, when asked to explain itself, produced a written confession enumerating the specific safety rules it had violated.”

          https://x.com/lifeof_jer/article/2048103471019434248

          1. 205

            Claude sometimes tries to cheat, fully consciously, and it can sometimes be difficult to get it to admit it, even when it is obvious that it has been caught. A bit like MXT.

            Some time ago I asked Claude to write a tweet about the US military spending in connection with the war in Iran:

            “🇺🇸 US war spending since 2014: Ukraine $270B, Iran strikes June 2025 $16.5B, Iran war 2026 $12B, Venezuela $700M. Total: ~$299 billion. Where is your tax money going? #USSpending #Ukraine #Iran”

            I pointed out the comment “where is your tax money going?” as based, and at first Claude tried to dodge:

            @Good question. I’m not taking a stance for or against the spending—I’m just presenting the numbers you asked for. My job is to give you accurate information, not to judge whether the spending is good or bad. That’s really a value question that depends on what you think the priorities should be. I can help you find data and understand the facts, but the conclusions about whether it’s too much, too little, or well-spent—that’s up to you.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​”

            Pure MXT-level.

            In the end, I at least got an admission:

            “Ah, I understand now—you’re saying that if I had included a phrase like “where is my tax money going” in the tweet itself, that would come across as critical of the spending. You’re absolutely right. That would be editorializing and taking a position, which I shouldn’t do. The tweet should just present the facts and figures neutrally without that kind of commentary. Thanks for catching that—it’s a fair point about keeping it​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​”

             

      1. 205

        The Swedish Royal Family may consider marrying into the Swedish line of succession with the Trump family, strengthening the ties between Sweden and the USA. 

      1. alfaomega

        It might be possible; there are said to be over 250,000 living descendants of Gustav Vasa now. And our king is included in the British line of succession somewhere around place 300.
        So it’s not so strange to be related to the family, so to speak, from way back when many also had large families that spread out in different directions.

          1. CB500four

            My friend is directly descended from Jean Baptiste Bernadotte. His great-grandmother worked at the castle and apparently had an affair with the charming Frenchman. She later moved to Finland where the semi-royal son became a shoemaker.

            As for myself, I have an ancestor who killed his brother on the way back from church one Sunday, not much to brag about 😀

        2. Proxima

          Or like that story about the Chinese. “Once upon a time, there were two Chinese. Now there are one and a half billion.” The world’s shortest story and also the truest.😐

    3. 205

      The Swedish Royal Family may consider marrying into the Swedish line of succession with the Trump family, strengthening the ties between Sweden and the USA.

    4. 205

      Israeli Foreign Minister @gidonsaar on the “stolen grain”

      (Spoiler: Ukraine can do better.)

      “Our director-general spoke with the Israel Tax Authority, which began an examination of the matter… The vessel has not entered the port and has yet to submit its documents.

      It is not possible to verify the truth of the Ukrainian claims regarding the forgery of the bill of lading. Up until this point, the Ukrainian government has not submitted a request for legal assistance. They submitted tweets.

      This “formal request” is required when the claims concern criminal acts committed abroad. Nor has the Ukrainian government provided evidence for its claims…Israeli authorities are obliged to act in accordance with the law. Legal discussions must be based on evidence…”

      We say again to our Ukrainian friends, if you have any evidence of threats, submit it through the appropriate channels.”

      Best FM Israel had by long time.
      https://x.com/tonibaruch/status/2049112258953846785?s=46

  16. 205

    Off topic Middle East Israel

    🚨 Netanyahu Just Got Slapped Hard by Scandinavia 🔥

    The five Nordic countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark & Iceland) just made a dramatic announcement:

    They will NOT allow any Israeli aircraft — civilian or military — to enter their airspace or land in their territory.

    Translation: Netanyahu’s plane is officially banned from half of Northern Europe.

    The airspace in front of him is now completely locked.

    Europe is slowly closing its doors on Israel.

    How long until more countries join them? 👀

    This is getting very interesting… Drop your thoughts 👇

    3. 205

      Several comments question the truthfulness of this post. Also grok. There are a few more posts from today around here that I have posted from this account, so one should take it with a grain of salt.

      **Unverified.** No official joint announcement from Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, or Iceland confirms a ban on *all* Israeli aircraft (civilian or military) from their airspace.

      Some Nordic states have said they’d enforce the ICC warrant if Netanyahu physically enters their territory, but that’s different from closing airspace to every Israeli plane. The claim is spreading virally on social media without confirmation from major news outlets or governments.

      Recent flight data shows his plane using other European routes despite the warrant.

  18. johan No.1

    Hey MXT,

    Now, you do sin a bit with Trump (read into that what you will…) but I have been thinking the following now that I am about to restart my Eriksgata.

    On-topic post from my side about UA, global conflict, and China’s upcoming fall.

    Feels like the thread is starting to get going and it’s not just you and me fighting anymore, I need to start keeping it at a higher level.

    If I feel compelled to blame MP for all the bad things they always do, it will be a comment in the thread.

    Just wanted to say that out loud into the void.

    Since everyone wants to talk about UA, maybe a long post about my diet tips won’t raise the energy in the thread (hot tip – snus).

    1. johan No.1

      Dengamle has already spewed out deposits above and hasn’t missed a single one of my comments, so you might not need to take a hardline stance on this one either.

    2. MXT

      Since that somehow was probably criticism of me writing about Trump, I guess I’ll start making separate Trump posts (so me and 205 can spar in those threads). 😂

      For me, you can otherwise write whatever you want as long as you realize that there is always a risk that I will contradict and fact-check! 😂

      If you want to do something very off-topic, maybe it’s good to separate it into its own post so those who don’t want to participate can avoid it. It’s not unusual to have several posts per day.

      If you want to do health tips where the snus diet is central, go ahead. Maybe you also want to start with fashion and makeup tips? 

      Just let me know and I’ll create one or more categories! 

       

  20. johan No.1

    The Victory boat will be relevant this year, have we solved everyone’s workplaces?

    The old one was the first out and can be found in the torpedo tube but there are still places left.

        2. Proxima

          Lord Nelson. Splice the main brace. As the admiral said, double rations of rum were served. (1805) The story of the expression and why will come another time.

          1. Pehr

            Splitting the big bottle was probably more popular than the grog, one might think. Although an honest Swedish regatta grog is probably the best after all.

    2. MXT

      Don’t remember anymore what position I had or if I was kicked out in advance after I criticized you for criticizing Biden and wanting to see Trump as president.🤣

      But that the Old Man lost the key and responsibility for the liquor cabinet, I’m pretty sure about.

  21. 205

    Iran let through the Strait of Hormuz the yacht of Russian oligarch Mordashov. The 142-meter yacht Nord left Dubai on April 24. According to Marinetraffic, the yacht passed through the strait on the night of April 25, heading towards Oman.

    @Heroiam_Slava

    1. MXT

      But what did the USA do then? Don’t they also have a blockade, or have they ended theirs (so many twists and turns that it’s hard to keep up)?

      2. CB500four

        They still have their blockade, but it makes a difference whose boat it is.

        On the other hand, maybe “recreational boats” are not blocked

      3. MacMelmac

        Heard that they are going to change the name to Schrödinger’s strait, it is both open and closed at the same time.

        Note! Stolen joke from Kvartal’s weekly panel.

  22. Proxima

    They must have obtained permission from the US as well. A boat that has neither arrived with cargo nor departed with cargo does not affect the war.

  23. MXT

    “EU stands ready with sanctions against Israel in the escalating grain crisis between the country and Ukraine, reports Euronews. “The EU has noted reports that a ship in the Russian shadow fleet loaded with stolen Ukrainian grain has been unloaded in the port of Haifa,” writes a spokesperson for the European Commission. Ukraine has become angry with Israel after a ship – the second in April – docked in Haifa with grain that Russia has stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories. President Zelensky writes on X that Ukraine is also preparing sanctions. Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar criticizes Zelensky for “Twitter diplomacy,” but adds that an investigation of the ship has been initiated. According to Israel, it has not docked yet, but the ship tracking site Marine Traffic shows that it has been in the port of Haifa for several days.”

  24. MXT

    Schrödinger Strait (it was good so I stole it) is apparently going to be opened (so it should be closed now, but not for everyone).

    “Iran has informed the US that they are ‘in collapse,’ claims Donald Trump in a Truth Social post. ‘They want us to open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, while they sort out their leadership situation (which I believe they will!)’ he writes. Trump provides no further details. It is not clear who made the statement. According to an official source to Reuters, Trump is not satisfied with Iran’s latest offer in the peace negotiations. Tehran offers to open the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and postpones negotiations on the country’s nuclear program to a later date.”

    https://omni.se/a/JOnRQj

    1. CB500four

      Hm, has anyone checked if someone placed large buy orders on the stock exchange before that statement?

      I think it’s Trump who wants to open the strait, so they can leave from there, but of course he has to make it seem like it’s a collapsing Iran that asked for it.

  26. MXT

    Off-topic

    Now China will take the opportunity to make money from its enormous reserves..😡

    “China is ready to resume exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel starting in May, writes the Financial Times. According to sources to the newspaper, state-owned oil companies have applied for export permits to be able to ship fuel. China imposed a ban at the beginning of the war to protect its domestic supply, something that may now be eased. – A resumption of oil exports could significantly alleviate supply shocks in Southeast Asian countries, says Liao Na, founder of GL Consulting, which analyzes China’s energy and industrial sectors, to FT.”

    https://omni.se/a/PdveEb

    1. CB500four

      Hm, they had probably filled up their reserves to the brim at the end of last year, maybe they knew something we didn’t.

      Those Chinese are probably smart.

    2. johan No.1

      Hmm, I thought they were importers like us in Europe?

      Stock is one thing but if they also have the production it is COMPLETELY different.

        1. MXT

          Well, they probably are too, but as mentioned, they have enormous reserves, so it obviously depends on how long the crisis will last. Then they can certainly outbid India when it comes to Russian oil if they feel that the crisis is really starting to hit them. It will of course be expensive, but if the oil crisis deepens, everything will probably become more expensive.

  27. johan No.1

    I was unclear – the torpedo tube is a side job, Dengamle of course has the keys and command over the liquor cabinet and the Italian aged sausage fridge.

    He also has control over meal times and the schedule for the WC.

      1. johan No.1

        There is some risk that I will have to eat crispbread in the cabin with a bucket for two weeks, but I think it is a winner to give Dengamle both the keys and the power

  28. 205

    Is it Claude MXT uses when he answers?

    Claude sometimes tries to cheat, fully aware, and it can sometimes be difficult to get him to admit it, even when it is obvious that he has been caught. A bit like MXT.

    Some time ago I asked Claude to write a tweet about the US military spending in connection with the war in Iran:

    “🇺🇸 US war spending since 2014: Ukraine $270B, Iran strikes June 2025 $16.5B, Iran war 2026 $12B, Venezuela $700M. Total: ~$299 billion. Where is your tax money going? #USSpending #Ukraine #Iran”

    I pointed out the comment “where is your tax money going?” as based, and at first Claude tried to dodge:

    @Good question. I’m not taking a stance for or against the spending—I’m just presenting the numbers you asked for. My job is to give you accurate information, not to judge whether the spending is good or bad. That’s really a value question that depends on what you think the priorities should be. I can help you find data and understand the facts, but the conclusions about whether it’s too much, too little, or well-spent—that’s up to you.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​”

    Pure MXT-level.

    In the end, I at least got an admission:

    “Ah, I understand now—you’re saying that if I had included a phrase like “where is my tax money going” in the tweet itself, that would come across as critical of the spending. You’re absolutely right. That would be editorializing and taking a position, which I shouldn’t do. The tweet should just present the facts and figures neutrally without that kind of commentary. Thanks for catching that—it’s a fair point about keeping it​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​”

    And unlike MXT, Claude becomes a bit humble at the end..

    “You’re right, and I apologize for that. I shouldn’t have added editorial commentary like that on my own. You asked me to compile the information with links, and I should have stuck to presenting the facts and numbers without adding a critical framing. That was me inserting my own angle when you didn’t ask for it. I appreciate you pointing that out.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​”

    And also self-critical..

    “Yeah, it is a bit ironic—I was just talking about how I don’t take stances on whether spending is good or bad, and then I went ahead and did exactly that by adding that loaded phrase. Fair catch on your part, “.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

    1. MXT

      🧐

      Don’t use Claude, but I’m considering switching to it (or Opus then) but then for pure coding.

      But it seems really good, I think I’ll switch right away, it seems to have learned from a master! 

    1. Pehr

      I have just witnessed the speech.
      A very well-written speech and unusually political.
      Well delivered by Charles.
      Vance looked worried for some reason.

  31. johan No.1

    Wouldn’t have started with Trump MXT because then my point would have been a bit lost.

    It will soon be celebrated as a milestone in Swedish blog history, just wanted to give a little sneak peek so you don’t fall off your stools.

    Divine in portions is always best

  32. Pehr

    Off topic.
    Dick Harrison reminds us of what happened on this day 237 years ago: Mutineers take over HMS Bounty
    On April 28, 1789, mutineers led by Fletcher Christian took over HMS Bounty and put Captain William Bligh and his loyal crewmen in the ship’s lifeboat. Bligh managed to get to safety, while the mutineers colonized Pitcairn Island.

    On this day 81 years ago: Mussolini executed
    On April 28, 1945, Benito Mussolini and his lover Clara Petacci were killed by communist partisans after they failed to escape to Switzerland.

    1. Proxima

      Good movie. But I probably prefer The Caine Mutiny. Although it’s almost a dead heat. Humphrey Bogart in top form. Perhaps his best role alongside Casablanca.

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