Tuapse has once again been attacked by Ukrainian drones
Before the fire had burned out, Ukrainian drones once again attacked oil tanks in Tuapse during the night. The first attack took place on April 20 when the city’s oil refinery was also hit. Since then, there has been a violent fire in the city. The oil tanks hit last night are also part of the oil refinery. 122 firefighters have been called in to try to stop the fires, but so far they do not seem to be succeeding very well.
According to Russian authorities, Ukraine obviously has not managed to hit anything; it is only falling wreckage (so no one can come and blame poor air defense).
According to the Russian Defense Minister, Russian air defense is said to have shot down a total of 186 drones during the night over Russia’s southern regions including occupied Crimea.
Read more here, image here.
By the way, JD Vance seems to be an even bigger opponent of Ukraine than Trump according to another article from Kyiv Independent.
Russian losses
After yesterday’s somewhat lower losses, we are now back to higher KWA, unusually many armored vehicles (although tanks are missing) and a total of 276 soft vehicles and unusually many special ones.
- 1180 KWIA
- 16 AFVs
- 34 Artillery systems
- 2 MLRS
- 1039 UAVs
- 276 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
- 5 Special equipment
Russian activities
Fairly normal figures in the latest report except when it comes to the Russian suicide drones and artillery attacks, which are also significantly lower today. Artillery has long been declining and is now among the lowest levels we have seen, while the number of drone attacks has basically increased continuously but of course with some variation.
It is a bit too early to draw any conclusions about whether we are seeing a long-term trend regarding the drones, but when it comes to artillery there is no doubt. That decline has been ongoing since April 2025. Of course, it is impossible to know if it will continue to decrease or if it will level off or possibly even increase again (North Korea and China might decide to help more than they already do). The trend is positive regardless.
Ideally, one would like to see the same trend regarding KAB but it seems that Russia can continue at this pace.
- 226 combat clashes
- 76 air strikes
- 247 KAB/CAB
- 6,251 kamikaze drones
- 2,283 shelling (34 from MLRS)
SLAVA UKRAINI
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The Russians seem really accurate with their air defense, they constantly manage to pick off all incoming missiles and drones. On the other hand, they seem quite incompetent with the placement of said air defenses since the downed wrecks just as constantly seem to hit strategically important targets.
😄 Yes, it is strange how inefficiently efficient it is.
🤣
The total number of Russian attacks is down, but unlocalized Ukrainian attacks are up, a whole 82, and more than fifty percent of the localized ones. Or, more than one third of the total.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 18💥↗️
Kupyansk 4↘️
Lyman 13💥
Slovyansk 4↗️
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 15💥↘️
Pokrovsk 52💥💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 6↘️
Huliaipole 26💥💥↘️
Orikhivsk 1
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 4
Localized 144↘️
Unlocalized 82↗️
Total 226↘️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.56
👍 If the Ukrainian attacks are unlocalized, it should soon start to show “on the map” as well.
🤞
Oh wow 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩
The Russians make a push and then the number of attacks drops the next day. But they attack. Attack is the best defense, as the saying goes. A gamechanger could probably be if the attacks stop completely and they go on the defensive. That would be a first indication that they are starting to give up. And that it is starting to fall apart.
Yes, if it stops completely, we will probably enter a new phase. Then it certainly won’t happen across the entire front at the same time but will occur gradually.
So far, DeepStateMap still reports small Russian advances every day, so they still have the initiative, but the feeling is that it could soon turn around.
Ukraine has almost always been cautious and preferred to give up ground rather than sacrifice soldiers. Russia taking ground is not really a true measure of the actual balance of power, but rather a measure of who is willing to take the greatest losses.
When Ukraine finally gains the upper hand and it turns around, it can happen quickly (as we saw in the autumn of 2022).
❗️Overnight, 🇺🇦Ukrainian forces shot down 95 out of 123 🇷🇺Russian UAVs
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkjxdcjhbk22
Rewarding discussion in yesterday’s thread this morning – don’t miss it.
You will learn about populist parties.
Seaman’s porridge.
and voting for the Center Party.
The first option really stood out above in its objectivity and clarity, very readable.
😂😂😂😂
Now established figures in RU are beginning to criticize the war.
opposition.
Putin is insecure this summer as the UA offensive is underway.
May 9 will probably be mostly fear.
UA attacks are increasing sharply according to 205.
this year is the year we get to rejoice after this ordeal
Well… what was it that happened after the walk to Golgotha? 😳
Yes, that might not have been the best analogy! 😂
But despite that, one of Johan’s best similes 👍
😂
By the way, was it you who hung to the right of Jesus?
I’ve always wondered how you got out of that situation!
Looked so miserable that the Roman guards took me down and threw me onto a garbage dump.
Ah, you played dead? Smart! 👍
The Old Man is both smart and cunning…..
Nice video (WARNING to all potential environmentalists)! 😄
“❗️Moment of the explosion of yet another tank at the 🇷🇺Tuapse oil refinery after the nighttime 🇺🇦Ukrainian drone attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkk2qabs7s22
One more:
“🥰 Tuapse”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mkk2pcsauc2h
This gave a good overview of the area:
“The Tuapse refinery in Russia is burning at least 3 different points.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mkk34xbuq22p
One of the ways Russian propaganda takes advantage of AI.
“Russians are taking local Ukrainian news broadcasts, altering them with Ai, then releasing them onto social networks. On Kyiv24, a sign language interpreter showed a sign ‘They are lying to you’ during Zelensky’s speech”, but it was just more Russian nonsense.”
https://bsky.app/profile/stratcomcentre.bsky.social/post/3mkjzxc4tod27
Unfortunately, not only Ukraine was active last night.
“Russian attacks on Ukraine never stop. Several regions were under Russian strikes last night
◾️Sumy region: a kindergarten, hospital, residential buildings, tram line damaged. 4 people injured. Thankfully, no one was under the debris of the kindergarten (the one in the 📹)
◾️Zaporizhzhia region: 2 people injured”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mkjzsx4b6k2x
Kyiv Post also writes about Tuapse.
“Tuapse Ablaze Again: Ukrainian Drones Hit Key Russian Oil Hub as Environmental Crisis Spreads
The strike marks the third hit on the Tuapse refinery in under two weeks – after attacks on April 16 and April 20 that triggered major fires, damaged storage tanks, and forced the plant offline.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74894
Liked the picture:
🤬🤬🤬
“🤬 Russia dropped a KAB on a kindergarten in the Sumy region, initially without casualties. ❗️One person killed, 5 injured as a result of Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih, – OVA”
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mkk25xelzk2h
The next senior minister that Trump fires is Hegseth. He is blamed for the less successful war effort against Iran, and for covering up/downplaying the damage that Iran has done to the US bases.
If I am wrong, I promise, against better judgment, to praise Johan’s analyses for a year.
Not at all impossible.
I agree. It’s probably a relatively low-odds scenario. Vance, who is reportedly against the war and also rumored not to get along very well with the aforementioned Hegseth, is more likely to strengthen his position rather than fold to bring about change.
Jedi questions whether the Pentagon has provided an accurate picture of missile consumption in the Iran war.
“The consequences of a dramatic drawdown in munitions reserves are potentially dire: U.S. forces would need to draw from these same stockpiles to defend Taiwan against China, South Korea against North Korea, and Europe against Russia.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump/686905/
Seems reasonable. That man is also extremely incompetent in every way.
Let Hegeeth stay let Hegseth stay let Hegseth stay
Russian strike on the Port of Chornomorsk in Odesa region has dumped thousands of tons of sunflower oil into the sea‼️
“The attack destroyed a storage tank holding 6,000 tons of sunflower oil. The resulting spill spans a 400-by-200-meter slick across the port’s waters. Emergency crews have deployed boom barriers to contain the spread,” – Environmental Inspectorate of the South-Western District.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3mkhyqlbqcs2r
Off topic Regarding yesterday’s discussion about AI.
Personally, I am convinced that it will completely revolutionize society and the labor market, but along the way there will be several incidents similar to this one.
https://omni.se/a/lnMrwA
The database AND the backups?
As for the latter, I really don’t know if you can blame the AI for that.
If you let it have access to manage the backups, you only have yourself to blame. 😂
OFF-Topic, Trump
Yes, they really do look alike, King Charles and King Donald! 👑👑🫐
let the game of thrones begin?
should we believe that he will try to assert his right to the throne in some way? 😬
The Swedish Royal Family may consider marrying into the Swedish line of succession with the Trump family, strengthening the ties between Sweden and the USA.
Good. But Trump’s father comes from Karlstad.🤔 At least that’s what both the father and Donald claim.
It might be possible; there are said to be over 250,000 living descendants of Gustav Vasa now. And our king is included in the British line of succession somewhere around place 300.
So it’s not so strange to be related to the family, so to speak, from way back when many also had large families that spread out in different directions.
Haha, being a relative of Gustav Vasa is nothing to brag about
The European Union has warned Israel that it is ready to impose sanctions on those aiding and abetting the trade of Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia in the occupied territories, after a new ship loaded with the cereal arrived in the port of Haifa.
https://x.com/euronews/status/2049097831328133453?s=46
“You should also understand Ukrainian psychology – grain is deeply sacred to Ukrainians, especially since the Holodomor. Trading with Russia using stolen Ukrainian grain is not only illegal and financially fuels Russia’s war – it is also deeply offensive to the Ukrainian nation.”
https://x.com/katerynalis/status/2048937009083789445?s=46
👍👍👍Good!
Wasn’t one of the Shadow Fleet’s ships that Finland took loaded with steel coils from Russia to Haifa? What happened to it?
“How Ukrainian wheat stolen by Russia is smuggled to Israel. Investigation by @avischarf and @YorukIsik reveals how grain stolen from occupied Ukrainian territory has been sold to Israel. Profits from the shady operation are financing Putin’s war.”
https://x.com/trbrtc/status/2048856967783838032?s=46
Would have been an answer to 205 15.52
The Swedish Royal Family may consider marrying into the Swedish line of succession with the Trump family, strengthening the ties between Sweden and the USA.
Israeli Foreign Minister @gidonsaar on the “stolen grain”
(Spoiler: Ukraine can do better.)
“Our director-general spoke with the Israel Tax Authority, which began an examination of the matter… The vessel has not entered the port and has yet to submit its documents.
It is not possible to verify the truth of the Ukrainian claims regarding the forgery of the bill of lading. Up until this point, the Ukrainian government has not submitted a request for legal assistance. They submitted tweets.
This “formal request” is required when the claims concern criminal acts committed abroad. Nor has the Ukrainian government provided evidence for its claims…Israeli authorities are obliged to act in accordance with the law. Legal discussions must be based on evidence…”
We say again to our Ukrainian friends, if you have any evidence of threats, submit it through the appropriate channels.”
Best FM Israel had by long time.
https://x.com/tonibaruch/status/2049112258953846785?s=46
https://www.dn.se/varlden/ukraina-varnar-israel-ta-inte-emot-det-stulna-vetet/
Off topic Middle East Israel
🚨 Netanyahu Just Got Slapped Hard by Scandinavia 🔥
The five Nordic countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark & Iceland) just made a dramatic announcement:
They will NOT allow any Israeli aircraft — civilian or military — to enter their airspace or land in their territory.
Translation: Netanyahu’s plane is officially banned from half of Northern Europe.
The airspace in front of him is now completely locked.
Europe is slowly closing its doors on Israel.
How long until more countries join them? 👀
This is getting very interesting… Drop your thoughts 👇
This is interesting, it will be exciting to follow the development.
205, do you have a link to this?
This year it happens…
Super guaranteed
Hey MXT,
Now, you do sin a bit with Trump (read into that what you will…) but I have been thinking the following now that I am about to restart my Eriksgata.
On-topic post from my side about UA, global conflict, and China’s upcoming fall.
Feels like the thread is starting to get going and it’s not just you and me fighting anymore, I need to start keeping it at a higher level.
If I feel compelled to blame MP for all the bad things they always do, it will be a comment in the thread.
Just wanted to say that out loud into the void.
Since everyone wants to talk about UA, maybe a long post about my diet tips won’t raise the energy in the thread (hot tip – snus).
Dengamle has already spewed out deposits above and hasn’t missed a single one of my comments, so you might not need to take a hardline stance on this one either.
Quickly realized that this was an invitation on fancy paper 😑
Yes, Israel is starting to shoot itself in the foot here
The Victory boat will be relevant this year, have we solved everyone’s workplaces?
The old one was the first out and can be found in the torpedo tube but there are still places left.
Iran let through the Strait of Hormuz the yacht of Russian oligarch Mordashov. The 142-meter yacht Nord left Dubai on April 24. According to Marinetraffic, the yacht passed through the strait on the night of April 25, heading towards Oman.
@Heroiam_Slava