Apparently intercepted yesterday from the Kremlin, it is said to be 100% true.
Something else that is also 100% true is that every UA OSINT analyst on Twitter, down to those barely read, has just said in their own ways (poorly disguised) that they have been asked to respect OPSEC until otherwise indicated.
Those of you who have been around for a while know that this means violent and burning things are underway from Ukraine’s side.
The fact that this coincides with the summer period, which is perfect for offensive operations, and that the pre-combat has been grandiose in recent months makes it difficult to arrive at any other assumption than that Ukraine plans to grill the Russian fish over an open fire this year.
If you have read Johan No.1, you knew well over a year ago that UA had a strategic offensive reserve, and you also know that we have good reason to assume that there are maneuver brigades fully equipped in the past year/years with all the new materiel that has poured in.
As usual – “Russia can never lose,” “it will end in trench warfare,” “this will be a Korean-style peace” – those lying and incompetent analysts I want to grill, the ones I’ve argued with for 4.5 years.
Since I worked with my Peruvian colleague since April 2023 and he was, for good reasons, a USA hater as they are in South America, he was also quite positive towards Russia automatically. The discussions were long, and every time Ukraine started something beautiful and violent that Europe and the USA destroyed, you had to sit there and mutter with a broadly grinning colleague across the table who said, “What did I tell you, no one can beat Russia, right,” even though the cheating was obvious.
Clement Molin has the same problem as I do. I write what I see and make my own analyses on raw data, which is rarely mainstream, and then you have at least half against you sometimes everyone. Then as soon as it becomes mainstream, everyone talks about it as news and you have to sit there alone forgotten and take another snus. I have very little patience for most and believe that those in Europe who should make decisions are limited partly by their professional roles but also generally influenced by the environment around them.
That sharp analyses that have such impact that something directly happens still do not come today, I find very hard to accept but understandable. Then there is “if you want peace, you must prepare for war” with some lead time on the second part of that phrase – foresight is smart.
When established media have managed to tie the threads together and serve a finished analysis, it is already far advanced and rarely correct anyway because the conclusion is wrong.
Those of you who have read for a long time may remember Kuwait Highway 2.0?
Here you have a good start, UA has knocked out all the bridges down to Crimea from the north, leaving only one road open farthest west.
An enterprising Russian brigade commander arranged the logistics for transport over open communication channels and it looked like this, apparently 50 vehicles in total but not all appear to be burning.
Unrelated mood film
The Azov thrust is thus already given – there is nothing RU can do on the battlefield that can change this now.
We described it already in 2022, I believe, when the USA urgently had to intervene to close the open goal back in autumn 2022.
The 2023 spring offensive should have gone better than it did but the USA, Ukrainian parliamentarians, Europe, and their own commanders at various levels leaked everything to the Russians. Then we forced Ukraine to fight in the way we thought would work and they paid for it in blood – what I think we saw there was that NATO commanders were involved a bit like Sirsky usually is and decided too much at the micro level.
They wanted inexperienced brigade commanders whom they had trained to do as they wanted – the entire command cadre from our NATO should naturally have been fired but we don’t get to have that much fun.
August 2024, you probably heard from Johan No.1 first that it would happen then as the amount of UA troops at the northern border gave it away but then Trump totally crushed that gain and gave a freebie to Putin he did not deserve.
All the time we have slowed down and delayed Ukraine when things went too well – I don’t understand how they have managed to endure this with a good face, they are simply built differently.
The difference this year is that Ukraine keeps the battle plans qualified secret – which they seem to be doing.
And then they turn a deaf ear when E3 and Trump start babbling – which I believe they do.
Then this will play out as it should have already in 2022, unfortunately my Peruvian colleague is retired and I am not in Lagos when the big win comes so there won’t be an opportunity to mock him for a week.
The single most important thing this year is the water supply for RU – a soldier needs to drink every day. If the trucks don’t get through, there will be no supply and water becomes critical first.
The Russians have always slurped from puddles but since there is so much death around them, there will be some extra diseases in those puddles this year.
The burning snake above was apparently supply for a brigade according to the Twitter kings, that tells you something about what they need in maintenance.
Already after a few weeks, transports to Crimea, the Southern front, and Dnipro dropped by 71% according to our Brovdi, as we mentioned the other day.
The pieces are starting to fall into place Senhores, this will be Ukraine’s summer and early autumn.
It is not practically possible to predict the broader outcome – Putin can at any time be wearing the wrong underwear and happen to drink a cup of tea. That he is already weakened we can assume but it is impossible to know who will come out on top.
All the generals who are blown up in their cars by accidents – it is certainly also the FSB trying to keep things clean in addition to Ukraine stealing a page from Mossad’s judiciary.
Window jumps are Putin’s right of execution, hard to see anything else.
Ukraine is preparing for a lot – subversive activities are not exclusive to Putin. Belarus, republics within Russia, Russian political opposition, and lots of other fun stuff so we have only seen the beginning.
Just like Hungary and Belarus would join the war when Kiev fell, which never happened, many different constellations in Russia are waiting for the right moment – they are as cowardly as Europe but will move when it is safe.
Brovdi – no idea about the truthfulness of that statement but one thing I know, LPR and DPR fighters have already been in contact with Budanov and will get immunity if they switch sides when the question arises. The day that happens, irreparable deep holes will appear in the Russian defense and it is game over.
Legends, absolute legends – the world’s best shooters you know if you have read Johan No.1.
More is happening, up in Lyman Azov has started cutting off the head of the snake – it’s happening somewhat quietly but it’s also a biggie.
In Kostyantynivka, UA has retreated from part of the city and units from the strategic offensive reserve arrived to ensure an organized retreat – very neat and there are always new fortified positions behind the old ones for the Russian troop commanders to bang their heads against.
Here are actually UA drone pods – you know, the ones I usually talk about but Russian. This is what they look like nowadays, the ones we in Europe still cannot shoot down.
Here you have a Ukrainian EW platform that works, unlike the Russians’.
Ukraine has sacrificed everything, they had many easy ways out but chose the hardest one which has benefited us enormously. We are simply legally, morally, and spiritually obligated to give everything back to them.
Also spiritually positive to open a paid subscription on Substack.
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